Increasing presence of China in the Indian Ocean
Strategy and Security implications for India
Commodore RS Vasan IN (Retd)
Head, Strategy and Security Studies
Center for Asia Studies, Chennai
Maritime Challenges
Long Coast line 7516 Kms
Far flung Islands on both sides
Nine maritime states
Heavy sea traffic along the Sea Lines of
Communication (SLOCs) around the subcontinent
13 Major and 200 minor ports
Unresolved maritime borders with
Pakistan and Bangladesh
Troubled waters in the South.
Asymmetric threats
Extent of EEZ
RHQ(West)
West Coast
9,73,182 Sq Kms
RHQ(East)
East Coast
4,45,011Sq Kms
RHQ(A&N)
Mandapam
Tuticorin
Total 2013410 Sq Kms
A&N
5,95,217 Sq Kms
Security Challenges
Illegal
immigration
Smuggling
Poaching
Gun running
Refugees/Stow aways
VNSAs
Safety of lives and property
Marine Pollution/Oil spills
Off shore assets/ Islands/Port security
Security Challenges
Increasing maritime and coastal
trade
SEZ including in port sector,
Increased Private participation in
maritime sector
Off shore oil exploration and
protection issues
Issues of Governance of sensitive
maritime boundaries.
Energy Security
Triggers and Trends
70,000 ships would transit the
Straits in a few yrs.
Over 43% of piracy attacks
reported in the Malacca Straits
last decade. Another 16% is
reported in the Singapore
Somalia overtaking Malacca
Straits as hot spot for piracy
attacks
Dead/missing crew has
increased threefold since 2002 as
per the IMB.
The cost due to piracy attacks
was estimated to be at 16 billion
per annum.
China India Power Play in the IOR
Triggers for Chinese interest in IOR
Seeing Red
S
L
O
C
s
Hambanthota
U/C
Vital Sea Lines of
Communication
ASIAN TRADE TRENDS
China overtook Japan in Feb 2010 as the
second largest economy
SE Asian economies would grow at
comparable rates.
China export /import up by 30%+ during
2000-2009.
China became top export destination of
Singapore 7 yrs ago.
Indonesias FDI receipts in respect of
China 67%.
Main trigger ENERGY NEEDS
Gulf of Aden Challenge
Surge in Piracy off
Somalia
Increasing number of
Hijackings at far off
distances from coast
Each Navy
despatching ships to
area for protection of
merchantmen
No resolute action for
Coordinated action
Origins over land
Both China and India
Hijackings off Somalia
Based on IMB
Reports
Estimates of Chinese Def
Expenditure
140 Bn
USD High
estimate
90Bn
USD low
estimate
50Bn USD
Official/
Announced
2010
Projections
Offshore Defence Strategy
Overall, our military strategy is defensive. We attack
only after being attacked. But our operations are
offensive.
Space or time will not limit our counter offensive.
We will not put boundaries on the limits of our
offensives.
We will wait for the time and conditions that favor
our forces when we do initiate offensive operations .
We will focus on the opposing forces weaknesses.
We will use our own forces to eliminate the enemys
forces
Offensive operations against the enemy and
defensive operations for our own force protection will
be conducted simultaneously
First and second Island chains
Missile Launch Ranges
from China
Hit any one, anywhere
Super sonic ASCM-YJ62 on Luyang II DDGs,
SSN 22 Sun burn on Sovremennyy,
SSN27B/Sizzler on Kilo class Submarines
By Dec 09 deployed 1050 CSS 6 and 1150 CSS
7(SRBMs)
ASBMs based on CSS 5 MRBMs 1500 kms with
manoeuvrable warhead
ORBAT: Fleet
Disposition
North Sea
Fleet
East Sea
Fleet
South Sea
Fleet
Destroyers:
PLAN
1Type 052C(Lanzhouclass )
1 Type 052B(Guangzhouclass)
2Sovremenny class
1 Type 051B(NATO codename:Luhai class)
2Type 052(NATO codename:Luhu class)
16Ludaclass destroyers (some modernised,
others mostly old tech)
Total: 23
Frigates:
4Type 053H2G/Jangwei class
10 Type 053H3/Jangwei-II class
23 Jianghu-class (I+II+III, most old ships)
Total: 37
Type 051 C-DDG Luzhou
Red Navy (DDG/FFG)
Sentinels of the Deep
PLAN
Total: 54
40Type 035Ming
class and olderType
033 Romeo class
diesel submarines
4 Russian-made Kilo
class
5 indigenousType
039 Song class diesel
submarines
subs
5Type 091Han class
nuclear attack
Sentinels of the sea
(Type 094-Jin Class)
Hainan
Island ?
Potent force in the makin
Type 093, SSN, new nuclear powered
attack submarine
Type 094, SSBN, new nuclear powered
ballistic missile submarine
Type 039, Song class SSK, ddvanced
diesel electric attack submarine
Proj 636, Yuanzheng SSK, imported
advanced Russian Kilo diesel electric
attack submarine
Yuan Class SSK, new advanced diesel
electric attack submarine with Air
Independent Propulsion (AIP) Capabilities
PLA Naval base
also completed
Han class sub
052 Class
Special Ops: PLAN
All eyes on Varyag
Could also start commencing indigenous aircraft carrier
programme by end of this year (2010)
Plans to train 50 pilots including from Varyag in a four year
programme
Blue water navy in the making?
Bases in China, Dependency ports in IOR,ASBMs, Modernisation
OTH targeting capabilitiy with Sky Wave and Surface Wave OTH
Radars
Satellites for long range surveillance for precision attacks with
ASBMs
Informatisation for Integrated Joint Ops (Concept in 2004)
Up to five new SSBNs JIN 094 class and 095 advanced SSNs, 13
Song class Diesel electric submarines(YJ 82 ASCM) follow on is Yuan
class(AIP)- 15 more planned in addition to four existing All likely
to be capable of launching CH-SS_NX13 ASCM on acceptance
Surface combatants with long range HHQ9 LRSAMs on LUYANG(052
C) and SA-N-20 LRSAM (Russian) on LUzhou( 051 C), 6 Jiangkai
II(054A) FFG with medium range HHQ-16 VLSAMs
Houbei Type 0222 missile patorl boats for local defence carrying up
to eight YJ83 ASCMs
Development of AEW&C based on KJ-200 and KJ 2000(IL76)
Cyber space initiatives-
Concept of ops (CONOPS) India
CBG
Both Sea Control and
Denial forces
LND
Amphibious forces
Layered defence
using marine police
wing, Coast Guard
and the Navy
Integrated Coastal
defence network
Concept of Operations
(CONOPS)
Shore based
and integral
aviation for
surveillance
NCW/NCO
Satellite
Joint Ops
Indian Navy
Surface: Total 36
1 Carrier
3 type 15
5 Rajput (with Brahmos capability)
3 Type 16
3 Talwars
3 Type 16A
3 Type 25
3 Type 25A
13 Veer
Submarines :Total 14
10 kilos (upgraded with klub N) can strike
surface
4 HDW 209
INDIAN NAVY
Submarines: Total 17
2 Vela (Foxtrot) Class
4 Shishumer Class(HDW)
10 (Kilo) Sindhogush
1 Akula Class on lease
Air craft carriers
Viraat
Vikramaditya
ADS U/C
Maritime Capability Perspective
Plan
11th through 13th plan aimed at balanced
growth in ship building, submarine
construction and aviation development
About 20 percent of def budget expected for
Navy (capital to revenue about 60:40)
Six Scorpene at MDL first delivery 2012 last in
2017?
Mod Plans include induction of major surface
combatants, surveillance platforms ,ASW/ASV
platforms, multi role helicopters, space based
surveillance and satellite communications,
Maritime Capability Perspective Plan
U/C Aircraft Carrier, 2 HDW submarines,
and six Scorpene. Total 32 ships and subs
u/c
Building of ships by non PSUs due to heavy
orders
15 yrs indigenous plan
R&D both by DRDO and Indian Industries
Opportunities for Marine Eng Equipment
and Technologies exist for Indian Industry
Vikramaditya by 2012?
Force structuring two CBG, LND forces, well
defined submarine force, shore based LRMR,
ASW,ASV, integral helicopters
Translates to a force consisting of three aircraft
carriers,35 frigates/destroyers, four supprt ships,
about 100 LND units, about 20 subs, amphibious
ships
2 carriers by 2014 and the third to join by 2019?
Seven frigates and four Destroyers approved to
be built by DPSUs by 2021 @ Rs 45,000 crores
Present level is of 130 ships plans to get it up to
160
Viraat
Vikramaditya
Many
Questions
Still ?
Sindhuvijay
Advanced Technology Vehicle -Arihant
Shivalik Stealth ships
Vindhyagiri
INS Shishumar
Talwar
Charlie Class sub-Chakra
Tsunami sensitive areas
in IOR
Chinas IOR Ambitions
Energy/SLOC protection
Warm water Ports referred to
also as dependency ports in IOR
for future (Gwadar,
Hambanthota, Myanmar)
Containment of India
Protection of own ships from
Piracy-Somalia/Gulf of Aden
Enablement of operation Carrier
Task Force
On the Anvil
Economic Developments
Post war - Hong Kong-based conglomerate
Huichen Investment Holdings Ltd. investing $28
million to develop SEZ located in Mirigama, 55
km (34 miles) from Colombo port and 40 km
from the international airport.
Hambantota Port Development Project (worth
US$1 billion)
Norochcholai Coal Power Plant Project (worth
US$855 million)
Colombo-Katunayake Expressway (worth
US$248.2 million)
2006 to 2008, Chinese aid to Sri Lanka grew
fivefold, replacing Japan as Sri Lanka s largest
donor.
Interest free loans, subsidised loans
From the Sea
Over land..
..
Colombo Kattunayake Highway and
many investments in projects and
infrastructure
Hambanthota..
Three times the size of Colombo
Service and Industrial Port
12 berths bunkering and refueling
LNG refinery
Aviation fuel storage
Dry docks
6000 direct and 50,000 indirect job
creation
Artists view of Hambanthota
Over 200 ships sail this route [daily]
and we want to attract them Our vision is to
consolidate the position of Sri Lanka as the
premier maritime logistic centre of
the Asian region.
Dr. Priyath Bandu Wickrama Chairman
Sri Lanka Port Authority
Shape of things to come.
From the Air
Shape of things to come
Some figures about the airport coming up near
HambanthotaUS$210mn
Extent of land: 2,000 hectares in total.
Initial construction covers an extent of 800 hectares.
Aerodrome design: Designed to meet the ICAO specification
for code 4F.
Runway Length: 3,500 metres in length with a width of 75
metres.
Taxiways: 60 metre long taxiway from the runway centre line
to the edge of the apron.
Apron: 10 parking positions initially with the total being 80.
Air Field Capacity: Annual Service Volume of the aerodrome at
short and medium/long term planning horizons will be 30,000
and 60,000 movements respectively.
Terminal and related buildings: Proposed 10,000 square
metres to accommodate 800 peak hours and 100 domestic
passengers both ways
.
Proposed Air Port at Hambanthota
What it portends for future
Direct flights from China
Strategic Air Lift Capability
Support to PLA Navy on IOR missions
Economic Development
Air and Sea bridge to IOR (Port +Air
port)
Dual Use in future
Hambanthota bids for hosting 2018 CWG
Factoring Sri Lanka in Chinas equations
With the geo strategic importance of
Sri Lanka it would assume greater importance
for global players post LTTE defeat
Many developments and investments in
ports/Airports/transport sector particularly by
China increases Chinas leverage
Chinese overtures in the neighbourhood is
discomforting to India
What is today an economic investment of huge
proportions is expected to pay dividends for
investors particularly China in increasing its IOR
ambitions and also provides leverages for
future use both for commercial and military use
Indias Maritime Posturing of concern to
China
Cooperative arrangements with maritime
forces of Japan,Vietnam,US,UK,France,
Australia,Singapore,Thailand etc.,
Maldives security pact
Regional Initiatives- SAARC,ARF, MILAN,
Bilateral agreements
Indian Ocean Region Symposium
Launch of INS Arihant ATV
Modernisation of Indias maritime assets
Infrastructure improvements
Invitation for engagement/intervention
Areas of concern: India
Strategic Location
Regional power dynamics
Economic opportunity
Technological prowess
Democracy
Countervailing force to Chinas
adventures in the area
Historical baggage
Nuclear power
Extra regional powers interests/role
China Energy, Spheres of influence (SOP) to
counter India's influence
France- Strategic presence in IOR, bases in
Diego Suareg +Reunion Island
Japan- Increased interest in IOR, Greater
interaction with the maritime forces of India
(CG) for protection of mercantile marine traffic
from piracy. Benign support?
US- Diego Garcia, Mobile fleets in areas around
the world (CTF 150 and 151 ) for preemption
and energy security. Global policing
UK - Play supporting role for US initiatives while
retaining space for its own initiatives,
Norway Peace brokering
Conclusion
.contd
Chinas remote presence already
visible around India
Areas of interest in IOR would
continue to be under satellite
surveillance and other ISR means
Chinas virtual presence felt alreay
on many Govt and private internet
sites
Chinas actual presence due to
continuous deployment of its ships in
Gulf of Aden and by way of its work
force in projects around IOR countries
Land divides and Oceans unite
[Link] being a neighbour
sharing land borders China is now a
maritime neighbour as well connected
through narrow Malacca straits
Conclusion
IOR would continue to hold interest
for West and the rest including China
The 21st century would witness acute
competition between the two Asian
neighbours impacting security and
safety in IOR
Force level augmentation,
modernisation and greater power play
inevitable in the region
Conflict for supremacy in IOR and
cooperation (anti piracy/counter
terrorism) where convenient would
continue
India would continue to enjoy the geo
strategic advantage in the short term
Cooperative initiatives, collaborative
efforts are inescapable for taking on
the scourge of piracy and maritime
terrorism.
Options for India
Engaging Chinas neighbours and those weary
of Chinas military ambitions -Kautilyas
Arthashastra prescriptions
Strengthening and operationalising second
strike capability
Greater use of space for surveillance Cyber
warfare
Sustained support for Modernisation
Engaging immediate neighbourhood
Overcoming vacuum in political leadership
Keeping counters in place and all options open
Strengthening A&N even more-
Thank You