Models And
Techniques Of
Manpower Demand
And Supply
Forecasting
H.R.P.D(HRM306)
Made By:Kanchan
Pandey
5-2
INTRODUCTION
Firstly we should know what is Manpower demand forecasting and
what is Manpower supply forecasting.
Manpower demand forecasting :- Manpower Demand
forecasting is the process of estimating the future quantity of
manpower required.
Manpower supply forecasting :- Manpower supply forecasting
measures the quantity of manpower that is likely to be available
from within and outside the organization .
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Manpower
demand
forecasting
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.Factors affecting
Manpower demand
forecasting
The demand for human resources is influenced by several factors
Organizational decisions
Workforce factors
Organizational Decisions: Decisions such as expansion,
diversification, and relocation leading to demand for people
possessing requisite skills
Workforce Factors: Such as retirement, resignation, and
termination etc creating manpower gaps.
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Models and techniques of
manpower demand
forecasting
Expert forecasts / Managerial judgment
Employers Opinion Method
Trend analysis
Workforce analysis
Workload analysis
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Models and techniques of
manpower demand
forecasting
Expert
Forecasts: These are based on the judgements of those who
possess good knowledge of future human resource needs.
This is a good technique to use when,
experts are unbiased,
large changes are unlikely,
relationships are well understood by experts (e.g., demand goes up
when
prices go down),
experts possess privileged information,
experts receive accurate and well-summarized feedback about their
forecasts
Human Resource Planning and
development
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Models and techniques of
manpower demand
forecasting
Employers Opinion Method
Under this method employers are asked to give their assessment of future
manpower needs in different categories in their respective establishments.
Aggregating over all employers and making allowance for death,
retirement, migration and occupational mobility, it is then possible to
arrive at future manpower demand by skill category. This method has been
used in a number of developed countries like the United States, United
Kingdom, Canada, Sweden and France. This method is used when we
want highly skilled professionals.
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Models and techniques of
manpower demand
forecasting
Trend Analysis: This is based on the assumption that the future is an
extrapolation from the past. Human resource needs, as such, can be
estimated by examining past trends.
An example of trend analysis
2001-02
Production of Units
5,000
2001-02
No. of Workers
100
Ratio
100:5000
2002-03
Estimated Production units :
No. of Workers required
100
8000 5 0 0 0 = 160
If supervisors have a span of 20 workers, 8 supervisors are also needed in
2002-03.
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8,000
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Models and techniques of
manpower demand
Workforce
Analysis: In this technique all relevant factors in planning
forecasting
manpower flows in a firm such as transfers, promotions, new recruitments,
retirement, resignation, etc are taken into account while estimating HR
needs.
Manpower flows in a bank
P r o m o t io n s o u t
T ra n s fe rs In
R e c r u it s I n
P r o m o t io n s I n
>
>
>
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J o b H o p p in g
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T ra n s fe r s O u t
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R e t ir e m e n t
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V R S S c h e m e ( G o ld e n h a n d s h a k e )
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D is c h a r g e o r D is m is s a l
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R e s ig n a tio n s
>
R e tre n c h m e n t
>
A t t r a c t i o n s in O t h e r B a n k s , e t c .
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Models and techniques of
manpower demand
Workload analysis: In this technique on the basis of planned output, a firm
forecasting
tires to calculate the number of persons required for various jobs. Using
workload analysis one can establish workload of individual organization.
An example of workload analysis
Planned output for the year
Standard hours per piece
Planned hours required
Productive hours per person per year
10,000 pieces
3 hours
30,000 hours (10,000x3)
1,000 hours (estimated on annual basis)
(allowing for absenteeism, turnover, idle time etc.)
No. of workers required
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30 (30,000/1000)
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Manpower
Supply
forecasting
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Factors affecting
manpower supply
forecasting
Current and future competition for labour from other employers.
Local unemployment levels.
Local housing , shopping and transport facilites.
The output from the local educational system and govt. or other
training institutes.
Local unemployment level.
Demand for specific skills
The attractiveness of an industry in a particular place
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Models and techniques of
manpower supply
A) Internal supply forecasting
forecasting
(1)Wastage Analysis
(2) Staffing table
(3) Marcov analysis
(4) Skills inventory
(5) Replacement chart
B) External supply forecasting
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Models and techniques of
manpower supply
Internal labour supply: a manpower inventory in
forecasting
A)
terms of
the
size and quality of personnel
available (their age, sex,
education, training,
experience, job performance, etc) is
usually
prepared by HR departments. Several techniques
are used while ascertaining the internal supply of
manpower (a
supply of employees to fill
projected vacancies can come from
within the
firm or from new hires )
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Estimated internal labour
supply for a given firm
S o u r c e s o f In flo w s
T h e F ir m
P r o je c te d O u t f lo w s
P r o m o t io n s
T r a n s fe rs
Q u its
C u rr e n t S ta ffin g
Level
P r o m o tio n s
E m p lo y e e s O u t
E m p lo y e e s In
N e w R e c ru its
Te r m in a tio n s
R e c a ll s
R e tir e m e n ts
C u rre n t
s ta ffin g
le v e l
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P r o je c t e d
o u tflo w s
th is y e a r
P r o je c t e d
in f lo w s
th is y e a r
D e a th s
L a y o ffs
F ir m s in t e r n a l
s u p p ly f o r t h is
tim e n e x t y e a r
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Models and techniques of
manpower supply
Wastage Analysis
forecasting
Manpower
wastage is an element of labour turnover. Wastage is
severance from the organization, which includes, voluntary retirement,
normal retirement, resignations, deaths and dismissals. Marginal
recruitment decisions, without wastage analysis may lead to
Induction
Crisis
inaccuracies in HRP.
Levers
Differential
Transit
Settled Connection
Weeks
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Time
Months/Years
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Models and techniques of
manpower supply
Different
methods of Wastage Analysis
forecasting
(1) Labour Turnover Index
This index indicates the number of levers as percentage to average
number of employees. Average number of employees employed in a
given time period is decided by adding the employees at the
beginning and end and then dividing the same by two.
Example
At the beginning of a year, a firm has 250 employees, while at the
end it has 230. Assume no recruitment has been made in between.
Compute the labour turnover index.
(2) Stability Index
This index indicates stable workforce percentage for a given period
and can be computed as under:
Number withmorethan 1year servicenow
100
Total Employedoneyear ago
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Models and techniques of
manpower supply
(i)Staffing table:.
forecasting
are the pictorial representations of all organizational jobs, along with the
numbers of employees currently occupying those jobs and future
employment requirements. Staffing table shows the number of employees
in each job, how they are utilized and the future employment needs for
each type of job
(ii) Marcov analysis: Uses historical information from personnel
movements of the internal labour supply to predict what will happen in
the future and it shows the percentage (and actual number) of employees
who remain in each job from one year to the next, thus keeping track of
the pattern of employee movements through various jobs.
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Marcov analysis for a
hypothetical retail company
2 0 0 3 -2 0 0 4
S to re
M a n a g e rs
S to re M a n a g e rs
(n = 1 5 )
80%
A s s t. S to re
M a n a g e rs
(n = 3 6 )
11 %
A s s t. S to re
M a n ag e rs
S e c tio n
H eads
S a le s
E x e c u tiv e s
E x it
20%
12
3
83%
S e c t io n
H eads
(n = 9 4 )
6%
30
11 %
2
66%
11
D e p a rtm e n ta l
H eads
(n = 2 8 8 )
15%
8%
63
10%
72%
2%
Human Resource Planning and
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development
p e rc e n ta g e s
92
301
6
74%
86
41
16%
207
6%
16
14
29
S a le s
E x e c u t iv e s
(n = 1 4 4 0 )
F o re c a s te d
S u p p ly
D e p t.
H eds
46
20%
1066
1072
288
353
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Models and techniques of
manpower supply
forecasting
Skills inventory: It is a summary of the skills and abilities of employees used
in forecasting supply.
For assessing effectively internal manpower supply, it is important for an
organization to maintain skills inventory containing various information
about individuals and their suitability for different jobs. A typical skills
inventories include the name of the employee and a listing (or inventory)
of jobrelated skills, training.
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Skills inventory: an
example
N a m e : A .K . S e n
D a te p r in t e d :
1 -4 -2 0 0 4
N um ber : 429
D e p a r tm e n t :
41
K e y w o rd s
W o rk e x p e rie n c e
W o rd
D e s c r ip tio n
A c tiv it y
F ro m
To
A c c o u n t in g
Ta x
S u p e r v is io n
1998
2000
Ta x c le r k
ABC C om pany
XYZ Co.
a n d a n a ly s is
B o o k K e e p in g
Ledger
S u p e r v is io n
2000
2002
A c c o u n ta n t
A u d itin g
C o m p u te r
A n a ly s is
2002
2003
C h ie f A c c o u n t s T T B a n k
re c o rd s
O ffic e r
E d u c a tio n
S p e c ia l Q u a li f ic a t i o n s
M e m b e r s h ip s
D e g re e
M a jo r
Ye a r
C o u rse
D a te
1 . A IM A
M BA
F in a n c e
1998
D BF
1996
2 . IS T D
B .C o m
A c c o u n ts
1995
R is k M a n a g e m e n t
1999
3 . IC A
C o m p u te r
L ite r a c y
Languages
Ta ll y
F re n c h
B a n k in g
S o ftw a r e
P o s it io n
p re fe re n c e
L o c a tio n
c h o ic e
H o b b ie s
A c c o u n tin g
K o lk a t a
C hess
A u d it in g
D e lh i
F o o t b a ll
B a n g a lo r e
B o a t in g
E m p lo y e e s S ig n a tu re _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
H R D e p a rtm e n t_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
D a te _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
D a te _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
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Models and techniques of
manpower supply
forecasting
Replacement chart: It is a visual representation of who will replace whom
in the event of a job opening. Basically replacement chart helps us to get
the profile of job holders, department-wise and reveals those who could be
used as replacements whenever the need arises.
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Replacement chart
Key
G e n e ra l M a n a g e r
V. K . G a rg
A /2
P A to
G e n e ra l M a n a g e r
L . M a th e w s
B /1
A s s is t a n t G e n e r a l M a n a g e r
R .K . A ro ra
A /2
B .K . N e h ru
B /3
D iv is io n :
H R M anager
C .P. T h a k u r
A /1
D iv is io n :
A c c o u n t in g &
Ta x a t io n M a n a g e r
A .T. R o y
C /2
N o r t h e r n R e g io n
M anager
L . C . S r iv a t s a v A / 2
A. Thapar
C /4
C e n t r a l R e g io n
M anager
S . P. K u m a r
A /1
R . P andey
B /3
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N a m e s g iv e n a r e r e p la c e m e n t
c a n d id a te s
A . P r o m o t a b le n o w
B . N e e d in g d e v e lo p m e n t
C . N o t s u it a b l e t o p o s it io n
1 . S u p e rio r p e rfo rm a n c e
2 . A b o v e A v e ra g e p e rfo rm a n c e
3 . A c c e p ta b le p e rfo r m a n c e
4 . P o o r p e rfo rm a n c e
D iv is io n :
P la n n i n g M a n a g e r
A .N . G u p ta A /1
K . P. R a o
B /1
S o u t h e r n R e g io n M a n a g e r
A . S u b ra m a n y a m B /2
B .K . M e n o n
B /1
Te c h n ic a l A d v is o r
N .R . M u rth y
B /3
E a s te rn R e g io n
M anager
R . K r is h n a
B /3
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Models and techniques of
manpower supply
forecasting
B) External
supply forecasting : External hires need to be contacted when
suitable internal replacements are not available. It is used only when the
cost of procuring the labour from internal sources is more and also the
present staff cannot be spared for the future assignment, the company can
refer to the external market A growing number of firms are now using
computerized human resource information systems to track the
qualifications of hundreds or thousands of employees. HRIS can provide
managers with a listing of candidates with required qualifications after
scanning the data base.
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Bibliography
A.K Singh.
[Link]
[Link]
[Link]
[Link]
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Thank you
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Human Resource Planning and
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