Disaster Risk

Management
Introduction and Terminology

Some hip terminology.

Hazards, Exposure, Vulnerability and Risks
why disasters are not natural
Disaster Risk Management or Disaster Risk
Reduction
Corrective Disaster Risk Management and
Prospective Disaster Risk Management
Disaster Risk Management and Adaptation to
Climate Change

1 Disaster
A

serious disruption of the

functioning of a community or a
society involving widespread
human, material, or
environmental losses and
impacts which exceeds the ability
of the affected community to
cope using only its own
resources (The UNISDR, 2009)
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1 Disasters: Natural or
not?
Disaster

risk can be determined

by the presence of three
variables:
hazards (natural or
anthropogenic);
vulnerability to a hazard; and
coping capacity (ressilience)
linked to the reduction,
mitigation and resilience to the
vulnerability of a community
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2 Risk and disaster risk

The

combination of the probability

of an event and its negative
consequences (UNISDR, 2009).
The term risk is thus
multidisciplinary and is used in a
variety of contexts.
Risk is usually associated with the
degree to which humans cannot cope
(lack of capacity) with a particular
situation (e.g. natural hazard).
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2 Disaster risk
The

potential (not actual and realised)

disaster losses, in lives, health status,
livelihoods, assets and services, which could
occur in a particular community or society
over some specified future time period.
Disaster risk is the product of the
possible damage caused by a hazard
due to the vulnerability within a
community.
It should be noted that the effect of a hazard
(of a particular magnitude) would affect
communities differently (Von Kotze,
1999:35).
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of the

2 Disaster risk
Disaster Risk
= function (Hazard, Exposure,
Vulnerability)

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3 Hazard
A

dangerous
phenomenon,
substance, human activity or condition
that may cause loss of life, injury or
other
health
impacts,
property
damage, loss of livelihoods and
services,
social
and
economic
disruption, or environmental damage
(UNISDR, 2009).

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3 Hazard
Single,

sequential or combined in
their origin and effects.
Characterized by location,
intensity, probability and likely
frequency.
Examples: the absence of rain
(leading to drought) or the
abundance thereof (leading to
flooding).
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If this natural
Normal natural occurrences
Vs
hazard (due to the
Natural hazards
Natural

phenomena are
extreme climatological
(weather), hydrological
(water), or geological
(earth) processes that do
not pose any threat to
persons or property.
A massive earthquake in an
unpopulated area (e.g. the
Sahara desert) is a natural
phenomenon. Once the
consequences (a possible
hazardous situation) of this
natural phenomenon come

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unplanned or
poorly planned
activities of the
human beings),
affects them so
that they are
unable to cope,
the situation
becomes a
disaster.

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Difference between a hazard and

a disaster
Strictly

speaking there are no such things as

natural disasters, but there are natural hazards. A
disaster is the result of a hazards impact on
society.
So the effects of a disaster are determined by the
extent of a communitys vulnerability to the
hazard (conversely, its ability, or capacity to cope
with it).
This vulnerability is not natural, but the result of
an entire range of constantly changing physical,
social, economic, cultural, political and even
psychological factors that shape peoples lives and
create the environments in which they live. Twigg
(2001:6).
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4 Vulnerability
The

characteristics and circumstances of a

community, system or asset that make it
susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard.
Vulnerability is a set of prevailing or
consequential conditions arising from various
physical, social, economic and environmental
factors which increase the susceptibility of a
community to the impact of hazards (UNISDR,
2002:24).
It can also comprise physical, socio-economic
and/or political factors that adversely affect
the ability of communities to respond to events
(Jegillos, 1999).
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4 Vulnerability
Blaikie

et al. (1994) are of the opinion that

vulnerability
is
constituted
by
the
characteristics of a person or group in
terms of their capacity to anticipate, cope
with, resist and recover from the impact of
a hazard.
Vulnerability can be expressed as the
degree of loss resulting from a potentially
damaging phenomenon or hazard. It is
therefore the extent to which a community
will degrade when subjected to a specified
set of hazardous conditions.
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4 Factors in vulnerability
The

magnitude of each disaster, measured in deaths,

damage, or costs (for a given developing country)
increases with the increased marginalisation of the
population.
This can be caused by a high birth rate, problems of land
tenure and economic opportunity, and the misallocation
of resources to meet the basic human needs of an
expanding population.
Example: As the population increases, the best land in
both rural and urban areas is taken up, and those
seeking land for farming or housing are forced to accept
inadequate land. This offers less productivity and a
smaller measure of physical or economic safety, thus
rendering the community vulnerable.
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5 Coping capacity
The

ability of people, organisations and

systems, using available skills and
resources, to face and manage adverse
conditions such as hazards, emergencies
or disasters. Coping capacities contribute
to the reduction of disaster risks
(UNISDR, 2009).
Focus here should be the individual or
the community and also the capacity
of the supporting mechanisms to the
individual and the community at large.
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5 Coping capacity
(Example)
One

specific community might consist of a

number of new immigrants but this new
community might enjoy the support of the
local municipality. In themselves the new
community might not have cohesion yet,
but their capacity lies in the support which
they have.
Similarly an impoverished community might
not be the focus of development, but
inherent in their internal social and
economic structures they might possess
significant coping capacity and resilience.
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Coping capacity is therefore
as much 17

6 Resilience
In

the natural environment: an area or ecosystem under threat is restored to its original
pristine state.
In the construction and engineering industry:
the ability of metal or a structure to return to
an original state being able to withstand
shock, weight or pressure.
However,
human
systems
cannot
be
untouched by life events they do not
necessarily return to an original or former
state and the challenge is to continuously
develop,
improve
and
refine
existing
structures, systems and environments in
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order to progress.

6 Resilience
Returning

to an original or
previous state therefore
corresponds with the tendency of
certain communities to return to
vulnerable locations and rebuild
their houses, without improving
conditions and increasing chances
to progress. Resilience, however,
implicitly requires improvement.
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6 Resilience
The

ability of a system, community or society

exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate
to and recover from the effects of a hazard in a
timely and efficient manner, including through the
preservation and restoration of its essential basic
structures and functions (UNISDR, 2009).
This definition therefore considers the presence
of a hazard and not a disaster.
Thus once a disaster actually occurs, it would be
incorrect to refer to resilience but rather to coping
capacity.
Resilience and the building of resilience
should therefore be seen as an integral part of
disaster risk reduction activities.
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Resilience
Resilience

therefore means the

ability to spring back from a shock.
The resilience of a community in
respect of potential hazard events is
determined by the degree to which
the community has the
necessary resources and is
capable of organising itself both
prior to and during times of
need (UNISDR, 2009).
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Classroom Quiz 1:
Indicate

and write down 1-6 in a

topics you choose.
15 minutes

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Disaster Risk
Management

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Disaster Risk
Management
Pre-disaster activities

Risk
identification
Hazard
assessment
(frequency,
magnitude,
location)

Vulnerability
assessment
(population and
assets exposed)

Mitigation

Structural and
non-structural
works and
actions

Land-use
planning and
building codes

Risk assessment
(function of
hazards and
vulnerability)

Financial
incentives for
preventive
behavior

Hazard
monitoring and
forecasting
(space-time
modeling,
scenario building)

Education,
training and
awareness about
risks and
prevention

Risk transfer

Insurance,
reinsurance of
public
infrastructure
and private
assets
Financial
market
instruments
(catastrophe
bonds,
weatherindexed hedge
funds)
Public services
with safety
regulations
(e.g. energy,
water,
transportation)
Financial
protection
strategies

Preparedness

Post-disaster activities
Emergency
Rehabilitationresponse
reconstruction

Warning
systems,
communication
systems,
protocols

Humanitarian
assistance

Rehabilitation,
reconstruction of
damaged critical
infrastructure

Contingency
planning (utility
companies,
public services)

Clean-up,
temporary
repairs and
restoration of
services

Macroeconomic and
budget management
(stabilization,
protection of social
expenditures)

Damage
Networks of
assessment
Revitalization of
emergency
and
affected sectors
responders
identification
(e.g. exports,
(local, national)
of priorities
tourism, agriculture)
for recovery
Mobilization of
recovery
Incorporation of risk
Shelter facilities,
resources
management in
evacuation plans
(publicreconstruction
multilateral,
processes
insurance)
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Risk Governance Framework

The aim of Risk

governance is
to involve the
various
stakeholders
within all
aspects of risk
management.
Risk
communication
is central.

The International Risk Governance Council Risk Governance Framework

( Source: IRGC, 2006)
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Stakeholders

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Aspects in stakeholder
involvement
Aspect
Question
Identification
Representation
Engagement
Access to
Information
Interest
Trust
Acceptance Process
Acceptance Outcome
Dialogue
Financial
Personnel
Time

Are stakeholders identified (through a proper process including prioritisation)?

Are all relevant social groups represented?
Are all relevant social groups motivated to engagement?
Share of stakeholders that regularly take part in information
meetings
Are the stakeholders interested in having information, in the
outcome?
Do the stakeholders trust the decision makers, institutions and
information available?
Do the stakeholders accept the process?
Do the stakeholders accept the outcome?
Are stakeholders engaged in dialogue with listening and mutual
understanding?
Do the financial resources available meet the needs of the
governance process defined?
Do the personnel resources available in expertise and capacity
meet the needs of the governance process defined?
Is there calendar time to meet the governance process defined?

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Stakeholders

A stakeholder is any individual or group:

with an interest in the success or failure of an organization/ project/ endeavor in
delivering intended results.
affected by the outcome of the project.
might be called on to provide input, feedback, or authorization for the use case.

Beneficiary: a stakeholder with an interest in the positive outcome of

the project without actively participating

Risk information consumers (RC): refers to governmental and nongovernmental institutions (national, regional, local) as well as to
communities and individuals, who may require information on risk
as an input to carry out their specific tasks.

Risk information providers (RP): governmental and non-governmental

institutions (national, regional, local), who are requested to provide
the required data inputs to carry through the decision making process
concerning risk assessment (the technical aspects); this includes
providers of basic data as well as providers of information on risk.

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Stakeholder
Local
Communities

Who is what?
Role
RC

Explanation
Local communities are supposed to be direct beneficiaries of risk management policies.
They could be regarded as information consumers when they make use of participatory mechanisms
to take part in the decision making process, and therefore would require to be informed about the
topics under discussion (defining insurance policies, land use management plans, etc.)
Communities can also take part in the risk assessment process as information providers, especially
when considering issues related to vulnerability assessment (risk perception, etc.)

Local authorities

RC

Governmental
organizations
sectors
National
basic
data producers
National thematic
organizations

RC
RP

Local authorities are mostly using risk information for local decision making. They normally do not
have the capacity to generate risk information on their own.
Ministries use risk information in their planning processes, they main role is as information
consumers. However, in many cases, the different sectors make use of their own technical resources
to produce risk assessment studies; in this case they are also providers of information.
For instance national bureau of statistics, topographic surveys. Though they produce general
purpose information, they are relevant for the risk assessment process.
For instance: meteorological, seismological, geological that, generally, should be considered and
information producers

Disaster
management
organization
Private sector

RP
RC

A disaster management organization is both generating risk information, and is also using this
information for early warning, preparedness planning and disaster prevention.

RP
RC

NGO

RC
RP

Universities

RP

International
organizations

RP
RC

Consultants can be important source for specific data for hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment. A
special case is also the insurance industry, which can be a RP as RC at the same time. Sometimes the
entire process of hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment is done entirely by a consulting company.
The private sector as a whole is also RC as beneficiary of disaster risk reduction
NGOs often are actively involved in collecting relevant hazard and vulnerability data at community
level.
They can also be RC
Universities can be active in generating hazard and risk information. They can sometimes have the
main role in this process
International organization can bring in additional support for generating hazard and risk information
(e.g. World Bank)
They also require risk information for making sound
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RP
RP

29

Risk communication

Risk communication is the interactive exchange of information about risks

among risk assessors, managers, news media, interested groups and the general
public.

who (Source)
says what
(Message)
via what
medium
(Channel)
to whom
(Receiver)
and directed
at what kind
of change
(Effect).

Environmental
cues

Social context

Risk identification: Is there a

real threat I need to pay
attention to?

Information
sources

Information
channels

Message
content

Receiver
characteristics

Predecisional
processes

Risk assessment: Do I need to

take protective action?

Information needs assessment:

What information do I need?

Protective action search: What

can be done to achieve
protection?

Communication action
assessment: Where and how can
I obtain this information?

Protective action assessment:

What is the best method of
protection?

Protective action
implementation: Does
protection action need to be
taken now?

Communication action
implementation: Do I need the
information now?

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Risk communication:
Netherlands

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Information and communication

Risk visualization

Statistical information per administrative unit (country, province,

municipality, or neighborhood)

Risk curves

Maps which shows the spatial variation of risk over an area

WebGIS applications that allow the user to combine different types

of information, and display information such as:

Spatial Data Infrastructure / Clearinghouses, where through internet

basic GIS data can be shared among different technical and
scientific organizations involved in hazard and risk assessment.

Animations showing the spatial and temporal distribution of

hazards and risk

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Stakeholder
General public

What to visualize for

whom?
Purpose
General information on risks over large areas
Awareness raising
Community-based DRR projects

Businesses

Investment policies, and location planning

Technical staff of
(local) authorities

Land use regulation / zoning

Building codes
Spatial planning
Environmental Impact Assessment
Disaster preparedness

Type of risk visualization

Basic WebGIS applications in which they can overlay the
location of major hazard types with high resolution
imagery or topographic maps.
Animations (what if scenarios)
Simple maps of the neighborhood with risk class,
buildings and other features
General information about hazards and risks in both
graphical and map format.
Map with simple legend in three classes: construction
restricted, construction allowed, further investigation
required.
Maps indicating the types of building allowed (building
type, number of floors)
Hazard maps, with simple legends related to probabilities
and possible consequences
Maps and possible loss figures for future scenarios

Strategic Environmental Assessment

Real time simple and concise Web-based information in

both map and graphical forms
Statistical information, loss exceedance curves, F-N
curves, maps.
Economic losses, projected economic losses for future
scenarios.
General statistical information for administrative units.

Insurance industry

Influence political decisions in favor of

environment and sustainable development
Hazard information exchange to public and
other agencies
Exchange of basic information for hazard
and risk assessment
Development of insurance policy

This can vary from simple maps to Web-based

applications, depending on the objectives of the NGO
WebGIS applications where they can access the basic
information
Spatial Data Infrastructure / Clearinghouse for exchanging
information
Loss Exceedance Curves of economic losses, F-N curves

Media

Risk communication to public,

Animations of hazard phenomena that clearly illustrate

the problems.

Decision makers /
local authorities

Decision making on risk reduction measures

Investments

NGOs
Scientists / technical
staff of hazard data
producers

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Risk visualization:
example 1.
[Link]

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Risk visualisation:
example 2
http:// [Link]

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Web-GIS: RiskCity

[Link]

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Risk Atlases: example Java,Indonesia

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Risk atlas: example Andean

countries

[Link]

Earthquake Volcanoes Landslides Debrisflow Flooding

Cold

Drought

Tsunami

Population
Roads
Electrical
energy system
Oil
infrastructure
Harbours
Airports
Agriculture

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Tools for risk reduction

measures

Some Terminology
Hazards,

Exposure, Vulnerability and

Risks why disasters are not natural

Disaster

Risk Management or Disaster

Risk Reduction

Corrective

Disaster Risk Management

and Prospective Disaster Risk
Management

Disaster

Risk Management and

Adaptation to Climate Change
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Risk reduction

R = f (H, V, C)
R = Risk
H = Hazard
V = Vulnerability
C = Coping capacity

Risk can be reduced by:

Reducing

the hazard
Reducing the vulnerability of
the elements at risk
Reducing the amount of the
elements at risk
Increasing the coping capacity
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Risk reduction strategies

Structural measures:
refer to any physical construction to reduce or
avoid possible impacts of hazards, which include
engineering measures and construction of
hazard-resistant and protective structures and
infrastructure

Non-Structural measures:
refer to policies, awareness, knowledge
development, public commitment, and methods
and operating practices, including participatory
mechanisms and the provision of information,
which can reduce risk and related impacts.
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Risk reduction strategies

Avoidance

(eliminate) i.e. modify the

hazard
Reduction ( mitigate) i.e. modify the
susceptibility of hazard damage and
disruption.
Transference (outsource or insure) i.e.
modify the impact of hazards on
individuals and the community.
Retention ( accept and budget)
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Risk reducing measures

Structural measures
Any physical construction to reduce or avoid
possible impacts of hazards
engineering measures
construction of hazard-resistant and protective
structures and infrastructure
retrofitting

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Building design to withstand

hazards in Mountain areas

Foundation
Base plate foundation

Basement
Waterproof concrete
Enhancement openings and
sealing
Backflow flaps

First & second floor

Reinforcement of supporting walls

Roof
Reinforcement of roof

Building openings
Decrease amount and area of
windows in hazard direction
Avalanche shutters
Temporary preventive measures
(to close openings)

Fuchs et al., 2011

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Building design to withstand

hazards in Mountain areas
Measure
Reinforcement of the hillside outer wall
Reinforcement of the structural slab
Reinforcement of the truss
Reduction of eaves (decrease in roof
area)
Avalanche-proof window and window
shutters
Above flood-level light shafts +23
Total costs of the prototype reinforced
building

Fuchs et al., 2011

Increase in construction
costs
17
30
10
-16
67
23
8

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Risk reducing measures

- structural
Dunes

Dikes
and
polders

Dams and barriers

Example: the Netherlands

To avoide future flood

losses a secondary
channel & island are
planned.

Restrictive development
and some removal of
existing buildings

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(Preparedness measures)
Early

Warning
Preparedness and contingency
planning
Emergency management (e.g.
shelter facilities, evacuation plans)

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Example: MARSOP3

Crop Yield Forecasting

Joint Research Centre (JRC) of

the EC, Alterra, VITO,
Meteoconsult.

This system includes:m

management of a meteorological
database,
an agro-meteorological model and
database,
low resolution satellite information,
statistical analyses of data
crop yield forecasting

51

publishing of bulletins containing

analysis, forecasts and thematic
maps on crop yield expectations
using a Web-GIS application

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USGS PAGER

After the magnitude and hypocenter of an earthquake are

determined, PAGER retrieves any intensities reported by people in
the epicenteral region via the online USGS "Did You Feel It?"
system. The colored circles show the reported intensity at a city
and the circle's size is proportional to population.

PAGER generates a soil/rock site-specific

ground-motion amplification map based on topographic slope . This
map accounts for the tendency of soft-soil sites to experience
stronger ground motion amplification than rock sites.

Information about the fault geometry and size (black rectangle) is

added when it becomes available. The ShakeMap system then
produces regional ground shaking estimates (yellow contours)
using the reported intensities, the site-specific ground-motion
amplification map, and seismic wave attenuation equations that
account for the variation of seismic shaking intensity with
magnitude, distance and depth.

The ShakeMap system then converts the estimated ground

motions to a map of seismic intensity.

The population affected at each intensity level is computed and

intensities and populations at nearby cities tabulated by combining
the map of intensity with the Landscan population database.

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CATS: Consequences Assessment Tool

Set [Link]

US tool (FEMA & U.S. Department

of Defense's Defense Threat
Reduction Agency )

Technological Hazard/Effects
Models

Effects Assessment (Number of

Persons, by Category)

Mortality from Radiation Exposure

Mortality and Incapacitation from Biological

Agent Exposure

Mortality, Incapacitation, Visual Impairment &

Threshold Symptoms from Chemical Agent
Exposure

High Explosive (Blast damage model )

Toxic Industrial Materials/Hazmat
Biological and Chemical Agent Release
Nuclear and radiological Hazards

NOAA Oil Spill Model

Mass Destruction Hazard/Effects

Models
Nuclear, Biological and Chemical

Natural Hazard/Effects Models

Earthquake

At-Risk Assessment (Number of

Items, by Category, Exposed in a
Specified Range)

Population, Infrastructure, Residential Structures

Resource Sustainability Analysis

Commodity and Medical Resource Locations

Emergency Response Resource Locations

Roadblocks

Hurricane
Storm Surge

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Simulation exercise

use the risk information that you have generated in the

previous exercise for emergency preparedness &
response
make a simulation of an emergency that might take place
in RiskCity
You are in the geo-information department of the local
authority and you have to provide the local authority with
the required information to respond to the emergency.
You will get:
Information from organisations that provide important information
Requests from RCEMR to provide answers to questions which you
need to solve using GIS

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Simulation exercise

The best is to work in groups of 2 people.

Use 2 computers one for analysis, one for

communication (keep your University e-mail open!)

All answers to information request will be mailed to

westen@[Link]

Grading will be based on the accuracy of the

information you provide to RCEMR, and how quickly
you send it

Total of 160 points aim at generating your

responses within about 20 minutes!

We start at 12.00 oclock.

First make sure to download the data for this

exercise and check it until you start to receive
messages.

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Disasters cause adverse impact on human and

economic development
Average loss of GDP : 2-15%
Average loss of employment: 2-10%

Disasters cause vicious poverty traps pushing millions

into extreme poverty each year
Incidence of poverty higher in hazard-prone areas
2-4% increase in extreme poverty due to disasters

Disasters need both short-term humanitarian and

longer term development responses.
Humanitarian relief responses meet survival needs
Build back better addresses building resilient lives and
livelihoods

Disaster risk reduction links humanitarian and

development agendas for vulnerability reduction
Increasing the coping capacity of the vulnerable in crisis
situations
Fully integrate disaster risk reduction in disaster
recovery and reconstruction

Main drivers of underlying disaster risks are also

the major development challenges.

Weak urban governance, vulnerable rural livelihoods, and declining ecosystems

are the main drivers of disaster risks. [2009 ISDR Global Assessment Report]
Changing mean state of climate causing increased incidence of
hazard and declining resilience

There can be no sustainable development without

disaster risk reduction
Systematically integrate disaster risk reduction into sustainable
development planning in all sectors
Establish robust policy framework all levels for disaster risk reduction
planning and implementation
Fully integrate disaster risk reduction in disaster recovery and
reconstruction

Disaster Risk
Management Framework
Risk
Assessme
nt

Risk
Reduction

Risk
Financing

Risk Governance

Disaster
Preparedn
ess and
Recovery

Creating the
conditions for DRR and
CCA Mainstreaming

Understand
disaster risks
and improve
access to
information
Engage key
actors and
organize
government
structures

Develop
innovative
tools and
implement
pilot
interventions

Historic Perspective
WB Disaster Reduction and Recovery Operations (FY84-FY10)

Since 1984, the Bank

has participated in 725
disaster related lending
projects, representing
total commitments of
US$ 56.3 billion.

50

4500

45

4000

40
35
30

3000
2500

25

Number of projects

20

The number of projects

related to natural
disasters has risen
gradually with sharp
peaks in lending about
every five years.

3500

15
10
5

Millions of US$ (disaster related)

2000
1500
1000
500

0
0
FY84

Approval fiscal year

# Projects