Problem Solving
Objectives
Learn how to state and clarify a problem Develop a procedure for problem solving Learn the traps in problem solving
Whats typical?
Self-Doubt
Over Confidence Procrastination Flip-flops Desperation!
WRONG!
Six Criteria for Effective Decisions
Focuses on what is important Logical and consistent Acknowledges objective and subjective factors, blends analytical and intuitive thinking Does not gather too much information Tries to reach consensus Straightforward, reliable, easy to use, flexible
Problem Solving Model
P roblem O bjectives A lternatives C onsequences T radeoffs
Additional Factors
Risk Uncertainty Linked decisions
Problem Solving Steps
State the problem carefully
Acknowledge complexities Avoid assumptions and prejudices
Specify the objectives Create imaginative alternatives Understand the consequences of the alternative Grapple with your tradeoffscont
Problem Solving Steps, cont
Clarify uncertainties Think about your risk tolerance and the risks of each alternative Consider linked decisions
Each alternative opens or closes future options
Whats the best solution?
A good solution to a well-posed Is a almost problem.
always a smarter An excellent choice solution to a poorly posed than.. problem
Define the Problem
What triggers the problem? State the problem Question the constraints of the problem statement Identify the essential elements How does this impact other decisions? What is the scope of the problem? Gain insights from others Restate problem, if necessary
What Objectives Do
Help determine what information to seek Explain your choices to others Determine the importance of, time and effort devoted to the problem
How to identify objectives
Write down the concerns you hope to address:
Wish list Worst possible outcome Impact on others Insights from others Whats a good alternative but unfeasible? What is bad about the worst alternatives?
How to identify objectives
Convert the concerns into succinct objectives Separate the ends from the means Clarify what you mean by each objective Test your objectives
Alternatives
Use your objects and ask HOW? Challenge constraints to your alternatives Set high aspirations Think through your alternatives before consulting others Learn from past experience Then ask others for suggestions
How to generate alternatives
Brainstorming
Just list alternatives, dont evaluate Never stop looking for alternatives Look for win-win alternatives
Stop when youve thought through alternatives One solution would satisfy you But still have a range of alternatives
Consequences
List the consequences of each alternative Assess the future consequences of each alternative Create a free-form description of the consequences Eliminate any clearly inferior alternatives Organize descriptions of remaining alternatives into a table .
Consequences
Try to develop a common scale to measure consequences Use qualitative and quantitative data Use experts if necessary Use scales that reflect appropriate levels of precision
Tradeoffs
Eliminate alternatives clearly dominated by others Then swaps between alternatives using measures Value incremental improvements Make consistent tradeoffs
Uncertainties
What are the key uncertainties? What are the possible outcomes of these uncertainties? What are the changes of the outcomes, given these uncertainties? What are the consequences of each outcome?.
Uncertainties
Identify the key uncertainties Define the possible outcomes Assign chance of occurrence of each outcome Clarify consequences using quantitative and qualitative measures Create a decision tree
Risk Tolerance
How much risk do you want to handle? How much are others affected by your decision? Quantify the risks, if possible Seek to lessen the risks but avoid foolish optimism Dont avoid making risky decisions just because they are complex
How to lessen risk
Seek risk reducing information Diversify the risk Hedge the risk Insure against the risk
Linked decisions
Choose options that leave future flexibility intact Get timing right on decision tree Describe the consequences at the end points
Psychological Traps
Working on the wrong problem Failing to identify key objectives Failing to develop a range of good, creative alternatives Overlooking crucial consequences of your alternatives Giving inadequate thought to tradeoffs Disregarding uncertainty.
Traps, cont
Failing to account for risk intolerance Failing to plan ahead when decisions are linked over time...
So, tell me some specifics on these traps...
Common Traps
Anchoring trap Status Quo Trap Sunk Cost Trap Confirming Evidence Trap Framing Trap
Overconfidence Trap Recallability Trap Base Rate Trap Prudence Trap Random Events
Review
A model for problem solving The actions in each of the steps
Common Traps in problem solving