Understanding and Anticipating Demand
for Next Generation Broadband Access in Bristol
Revised Project Plan following Project Review 14th July 2009
produced by Dr. David Parker (Adit) & Keith Gilbert (Intercai Mondiale)
Project Elements
The various tasks to be carried out within the revised project are:
Task Type Output
1A. Stakeholder Meetings Qualitative Requirements and expectations of NGA
Phase X
1B. NGA Case Studies Qualitative + Quantitative Presentation of most relevent examples of
UK & European NGA Projects & Bus
Models.
2A. Focus Groups Qualitative Overview of types of services of potential
interest
I
2B. Demand survey Quantitative Likely market demand for high speed
broadband
3. Broadband Mapping Quantitative Sample of current broadband availability in
Phase Y
selected areas
4. Infrastructure benchmark Quantitative Survey of available network (Commercial +
private)
5. Feasibility Study Qualitative Options for stimulating broadband
Phase Z I
6. Option analysis and costing Quantitative Financial, technical and quality assessment
of each option
7. Final report Qualitative+ Quantitative Business case for BCC
Project Elements
Revised Target Delivery Dates following review meeting 14th July 2009:
Task Target Completion Adit Deliverable (in Hard Copy)
Date
1A. Stakeholder Meetings Before 7th Sept’09 Meetings Summary List & Opinion Summary
Phase X
1B. NGA Case Study Examples Before 31st July’09 Presentation of most relevent examples of UK
& European NGA Projects & Bus Models.
2A. Focus Groups By 7th Sept’09 Meetings Summary List & Opinion Summary
I
2B. Demand survey By Mid Oct 2009 (if Likely market demand for high speed
authorized by broadband – report following questionnaire.
07/09/2009)
Phase Y
3. Broadband Mapping Initial Overview Report Sample of current broadband availability in
by 7th Sept – detailed selected areas
sub-area by Mid Oct’09
4. Infrastructure Benchmarking Before Mid Oct 2009 Survey of available network (Commercial +
private)
5. Feasibility Study Before Mid Oct 2009 Options for stimulating broadband
Phase Z I
6. Detailed Options & Costings By End Oct Financial, technical and quality assessment of
each option
7. Final Report Early Nov 2009 Recommended Business Case for BCC
Preparation and Research Phase
• Element 1A: Stakeholder Mapping & Management
• Develop an understanding of the Council's requirements via 8 x ½ day workshops or separate meetings
arranged to interview
- Bristol City Council (Economic Regeneration, Strategy, Inward Investment)
- DC10 ICT Contacts (including Connecting Bristol Ltd. & Bristol Momentum Group)
- Bristol Housing & Development Stakeholders (including Community Cohesion Team)
- Social Inclusion representatives (drop-in centre coordinators etc..)
- Community & Voluntary Sector Network (including ‘Citizens-On-Line’)
- Environmental Policy & Planning Officers (including Transport Infrastructure)
- Emergency Planning Officials (including ICT Disaster Recovery)
- Education ICT Officers and Procurement Decisionmakers
- Local Health & PCT ICT Contacts
- Chamber of Commerce & Local Business Leaders (particularly Digital Media)
and any other individuals and/or organization deemed relevant by Bristol City Council
• Target Completion 7th September 2009 (50% achieved by End July 2009 we hope)
Preparation and Research Phase
• Element 1B: NGA CASE STUDY PRESENTATION
– Provide overview of current NGA Project activity in UK and Western Europe (upto 60 projects)
– Presentation of most relevent examples of UK & European NGA Projects & Bus Models.
– Provision of ‘Top 3’ detailed case study documentation similar to BCC’s aspirations
– Provision of Specialist/Advanced Residential Solution Material
– Provision of Specialist/Advanced Business Park Solution Material
– Provision of Project ‘decision-tree’ summary to consider for NGA interventions
• Target Completion before End July 2009 (Draft Material by cop 27th July’09)
Focus Group Work & Quantitative Market Research
• Element 2A – FOCUS GROUP WORK: In order to stay within the original budget, we can do 2 focus groups,
each with the following characteristics:
– Target of 8-10 respondents per group
– Each group session to last about 90 mins
– Location within the South Bristol area
– Groups segmented by the following age group criteria:
» Younger (21-44)
» Older (45+)
– The discussions will be guided by a topic guide, to be developed once confirmation to proceed is given
– All group sessions can be audio taped, if desired Target Completion 7th September 2009
• Element 2B – QUANTITATIVE MARKET RESEARCH: Regarding the ‘expanded’ Quantitative Market
research study, via telephone interviews, the following will be additional budget required in order to carry out
this activity as part of Phase 2:
– Sample size 500 interviews: £16,000
– Sample size 750 interviews: £21,000
– Sample size 1000 interviews: £25,000
– Target Completion Mid October 2009 (if authorised by 7th Sept’09)
Broadband Mapping & Infrastructure Analysis
• Element 3 & 4 – BROADBAND MAPPING & INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS: :
– Ascertain the existing and planned 2009/2010 ICT/Broadband capability across the region which in turn
endeavours to include Adit undertaking to:-
– Map the availability of broadband by postcode and by speed within boroughs.
– Identify areas where service is not available or is poor – known as “not-spots”.
– Inform individuals and agencies who are involved in economic development / regeneration with hard
statistics on not-spots and excellent provision.
– Identify and quantify the numbers of households and businesses that can receive the various speeds of
ADSL and more advanced [Link] geographically where high speed ADSL is available.
– Extrapolate what service will be available with emerging and future technology such as ADSL2+ upto
2012 (including the provision of any planned BT Fibre-Exchange Upgrades, Cable Company
developments etc..)
– Use the detailed status to generate a summary status suitable for mapping
– Build tables of the exchanges identified as serving postcodes in the City. Some of these exchanges may
be marginally outside the City region.
– Overlay Wireless Broadband and Public Sector Network reach over this traditional market availability of
broadband services to obtain a composite picture; ie; Maps will be developed showing any public sector
networks in operation, e.g. Health, Education, Crime & Justice….. which in turn may reduce/minimise
necessary any NGA intervention investment or provide additional benefit from any NGA investment.
– Target Completion Mid October 2009
Feasibility Study
• Element 5 – FEASIBILITY STUDY
– Evaluate the case and justification for intervention. Review technical options and required investment
estimates and funding options together with management model options.
– As a minimum this will involve a comparison/critique of alternative technologies to achieve NGA and
Next-Generation-Broadband performance with indicative and relative deployment & operating costs
(including Terrestial Fibre Solutions New Satellite Back-Up. Overall we shall investigate and report on:-
– ‘Do Nothing’ scenario
– Overview of Intervention/Investment Models as utilised within UK & Europe
– State-Aid Mitigation & Legislation Compliance issues
– Private vs Open Access Projects
– Wholesale & ‘Duct-Only’ NGA Investment options
– Overview of SPV/Joint Venture and Management Options (including the pro’s & cons of the commonly
formed entities for NGA projects – especially ‘Community Interest Companies Limited by Guarantee, eg;
CONNECTING BRISTOL Ltd).
– Other Procurement, Legal & Management Options
Target Completion Mid October 2009
Revised flow of project and timescales
Early/Mid Early/Mid Early/Mid
Phase X September Phase Y October November
Aim: to set out the broad requirements Aim: to prepare the business case for
and options for stimulating broadband Next generation broadband in Bristol Phase Z
Key inputs: views, opinions and Key inputs: Max. two recommended
requirements of interested parties/users/ Options for service delivery; Quantitative Final Report and
stakeholders; relevant case studies; Market Research Presentation
Options for service delivery
Evaluation: the extent to which the
Drivers: Objectives for broadband Business Plan meets the phase 1
Britain, as articulated in the Carter report requirements
Quality Gate – each of the Options will be Option Recommendation, including:
Evaluated against the requirements gathered Supplier & Third Party Financing
in the stakeholder/focus group meetings, and Cash Flow analysis
agreed set of criteria. CAPEX/OPEX and Break-even analysis
Recommendation: Max two options to be Investment Justifications
carried forward into Phase 2 for detailed
financial analysis
Phase Y
Defined Stakeholder
Options Meetings – Task 1
(Max. nine) Focus Groups -
Task 2A
Feasibility Study – Test options
Task 5 against Infrastructure
stakeholder /user Benchmarking – Task 4
requirements and (Indicative supply) Broadband Mapping –
supply side Task 3
parameters (Gap Analysis)
ACCEPT Option
Analysis;
satisfies
Qualification
requirements
of Option
REJECT
Recommendation
Of Option
Option does
not satisfy
requirements
0
Phase Z
Detailed Market Research –
Task 2B
Recommended (Demand Analysis and
Options Modelling)
Financial Analysis and
Cost Modelling – Task 6
Qualification •Cash Flow requirements
of Option •Financing Options
•CAPEX/OPEX analysis
•Relative ROI’s
For each option
Analysis Potential market
Infrastructure Business Case for
requirements' Recommended Option –
Task 7
Likely cost of
Option
Potential benefit
of Option
1
Business Case & Final Reports
• Element 6. – COST MODELLING Target Completion End October 2009
– Analysis of various options and required roles/responsibilities, obligations and costs.
– Options for Supplier & Third Party Financing, Cost Budgeting & Cash-Flow Estimations
– Relative CAPEX/OPEX/Break-Even Analyses, Optimal ROI/Investment Justifications
• Element 7. FINAL REPORTS Target Completion Early November 2009
– A full written final report (plus CD copy) and presentation to Bristol City Council and its stakeholders will
be undertaken outlining key issues and recommendations – Report Outputs will therefore include:
» NGA Demand Summary - Levels of business and domestic demand for NGA (segmented by key business and
socio-demographic population types) with extra focus on South Bristol region.
» Current & Expected Future Connectivity Map – representing existing project connectivity and analysis of options for
inter-working between these networks
» Capacity Report – an analysis of current Internet capacity into and out of the Bristol area and benchmark of
ICT/Telecommunications competitiveness
» Business Case & NGA Investment Models for Bristol City Councils - options in relation to ensuring delivery of NGA
within the next 1-3 years. And expected growth/development over a 5 year period.
» Commentary of ‘best-fit’ with Bristol City Council policy objectives, including Social / Economic / Educational /
Environmental and other possible benefits.
2
Final Comments & BCC Options Decisions
• Element 2B – QUANTITATIVE MARKET RESEARCH: BCC to please advise which option they would prefer
to undertake ASAP regarding the ‘expanded’ Quantitative Market research study, via telephone & internet
interviews; Noting the following are additions to the pre-agreed scope of works.
In highlighting such additional budgetary requirements, we have sought competitive pricing on the basis these
are the minimum volumes we would recommend to validate later business case assumptions
– Sample size 500 interviews: £16,000
– Sample size 750 interviews: £21,000
– Sample size 1000 interviews: £25,000
• Element 4 – MAPPING has commenced on generic information but to improve granularity could BCC provide
a listing of all postcodes which relate to its existing/planned redevelopments in the South Bristol area. If
received by 7th Sept this would allow us to add more detailed maps & commercial modelling to our End Oct &
Final reports
• Contact Point: Dr. David Parker (Adit North LLP Tel: 07979 706993 [Link]@[Link])