Capacity Building for Climate Change: A Climate Risk Management Approach
Prof. Dr. Khondoker Mokaddem Hossain Director Centre for Disaster and Vulnerability Studies (CDVS) Department of Sociology University of Dhaka Mobile: 01711-383926 Emial: mokaddemdu@[Link] [Link]@[Link]
Impacts will be felt in all sectors, esp. on natural resources (Water, Agriculture, Forests and Coastal zones) The magnitude of impacts is likely to be substantial, and in some cases, catastrophic:
Climate variability (especially extreme events) will be the primary driver. 2002 Monsoon failures in India may result in ~1% GDP loss. Recurring floods in Bangladesh (~5% of GDP). Hurricane Mitch (99) set Honduras economic development back 20 years (~75% of GDP).
Risks from Climate : Why should we care?
Adaptation will involve coping with climate shifts and variability in the context of several factors that influence vulnerability.
Increasing Vulnerability from Weather Risks
Magnitude of Weather Impacts
Source: Benito Muller, Presentation at SB16
Climate change implications on disaster risks
i. ii.
Alteration of the mean state of climate Increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events Combination of i. and ii. Climate surprises (i.e. emergence of historically unexpected and sudden climate change-induced patterns)
iii. iv.
Climate Vulnerability and Development: Common concerns
Average Mortality per Disaster
Per-Capita Weather Impacts
Deaths per Event
1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 LHD MHD HHD Human Development
Series1
Source: Benito Muller, Presentation at SB16
Source: World Disasters Report 2001
For anticipated risks:
Draw on experiences of human systems in dealing with current climate variability and extremes to provide guidance in designing adaptation strategies
For unanticipated risks:
Draw on experiences of human systems in dealing with extreme climate events of rare severity to provide guidance in designing adaptation strategies
Risks from Climate Variability to the Economy
Business and increased uncertainty do not mix well. Increased climate variability will impact long-run growth since resources will be needed to hedge against climate related economic uncertainty. Impacts:
Agriculture and Natural Resources Financial sectors (Insurance and Banking) Knock-on effect on other sectors
Global Weather Related Losses in US $ Billion
1960
3 0
1965 1970 1990
1975
1980
1985
Total Economic Loss Average loss per Decade Insured Loss Mean Insured Loss per Decade
2 5
2 0
1 5
1 0
Source: Stockholm Environmental Institute
Many different factors can make you more or less vulnerable to climate variability
Current efforts: approaches
Manage risks from current climate variability and extremes actions taken today to reduce vulnerability will increase resilience and security by providing a buffer against vulnerability to future climate change
Manage risks at all time scales (weather, climate, extremes, changing climate) in a risk management framework (Climate Risk Management)
Multi-stakeholder approach Involvement of stakeholders in identification and prioritization of
risks and risk management options
Observable trends inform risk assessments
Managing uncertainties (probabilistic method, use of thresholds, etc.)
Adopting Climate Risk Management
Manage current climate extremes as a way forward to manage future climate change Detect observable climate change trends Confirm observable trends with climate change models Downscale and provide locally usable climate information Establish institutional partnership with climate information providers and users Community based climate risk management programs grounded by adopting both Top Down and Bottom Up approaches.
What is Climate Risk Management Approach?
Climate risk management approach means that we should assess, and where necessary act upon, the threats and opportunities that result from both existing and future climate variability, including those deriving from climate change
Climate Risk Management approach:
1) Analysis of climate-related risks Elements at risk: what, where, who Climate stresses: historical and current climate variability and trends, prediction of climate variability and extremes to capture observable trends from a changing climate Non-climate stresses Impact assessment: climate-dependent sectors Assessment of coping/ adaptation strategies, acceptable risks, institutional responses Analysis of residual risks/ adaptation deficits Analysis of long-term risks through stakeholder consultation, noting considerable uncertainties in socioeconomic projections
Climate Risk Management approach:
2) Analysis of institution, decision and policy landscape Inventory of institutions involved in climate risk management and their decision and policy frameworks for confronting climate risks Needs and nature of information demands to support decision-making Capacity to generate, interpret, translate and communicate climate information Consensus-based identification and prioritization of risk management actions Participatory process leads to stakeholder ownership of priority actions identified and accountability in their implementation
3)
4)
Climate Risk Management approach:
5)
Development of decision-support tools. Includes climate information tailored to user needs at different planning horizons: Weather (3d) for saving lives (DM) Extended weather (10d) for early mitigation decisions (DM) Medium-term forecast (20-25d) for logistics planning (DM) Seasonal (6mos) for resource management planning (agriculture, water) Long-term trends for evaluating how decisions and investments today can withstand future extremes (infrastructure, environment, planning) Institutional engagement and capacity development Active focal point able to bring DRR and CCA communities together Regular dialogues (e.g. Monsoon Forum) Training and demonstration
Climate Risk Management approach:
6) Local tool application
Application of decision-support tools by planners, disaster managers, farmers, etc. Facilitation of user uptake of climate information Institutions mobilize resources to support implementation of priority action
7) Policy support
8) Receiving feedback to improve climate risk management process and tools 9) Sustaining initiatives by mainstreaming into local and national development processes
Address the integrated climate-society system Start with understanding of vulnerability and focus on resilience Place and context matter Understand decision-making framework to help guide climate information development, delivery and applications Useful and usable information Continuum of climate timescales Scale, timing, format & language appropriate to application and user community Responsive to user needs Incorporates new insights/capabilities
Guiding Principles for Climate Risk Management Initiatives
Guiding Principles for Climate Risk Management Initiatives
Appropriate tools, technologies and mechanisms Process and products Importance of integrated program of observations, monitoring, forecasting, assessment and applications with continuous evaluation (and adjustment as necessary) Document and share experiences Build on existing systems, institutions, programs, relationships & networks
Guiding Principles for Climate Risk Management Initiatives
Education, training & capacity-building essential Government leadershipat all levels Extremes a valuable focus; opportunities for science, engagement, building resilience Proactive planningclimate risk management in a sustainable development context Risk management a valuable framework for building partnerships and guiding climate information systems
Need to take a balanced approach to managing climate and non-climate risks
Integrated Climate Risk Management
Integrated risk management focus that brings together current risk and disaster and adaptation to climate change concerns and communities, relating these closely to sectoral and territorial sustainable development caucuses and agencies Integrated climate risk management, as a concept, would address both the hazards and vulnerabilities which configure particular risk scenarios and would range in scale from actions to manage the local manifestations of global climate risk, through to global measures to reduce hazard (for example, by reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and to reduce vulnerability (by increasing the social and economic resilience of vulnerable countries such as SIDS, for example).
Coping with Climate Variability: A Risk Perspective
Climate Variability Coping Strategies Science and Assessment
Science of Climate
Useful knowledge Broad Sector Studies Decision making under uncertainty
Before the fact: Preparedness
Climate only one input! Design of local strategies Incorporation into practice Training & policy shift
After the fact: Relief
Disaster Relief Management Current Barriers New Technologies and Political will
Science and Assessments: From Global to Local and Back
Scientific knowledge:
Usable knowledge:
data, models, facts influences on the ground decisions prediction, economic value Uncertainty increases with decreasing scale
Difficulty:
Capacity building challenge:
learning to extract useful local info. in the face of uncertainty Not merely an academic exercise, continuous interaction with the real world.
Local
Regional Scale
Global
Predictability
Uncertainty
Being prepared for climate change : If adaptation is the answer, what is the question?
Climate is one input among many:
Multiple stressors
goal is to reduce impact on economy and society (human development)
Multiple Stakeholders
Increased climate variability Change in local vulnerability over time due to other factors Changes in operating regimes
Added complexity and coordination Recognition that stakes vary The poorest take the biggest hit
Climate
Other Stressors
Policy & Politics
Knowledge Generation
Capacity Building (I): Knowledge Generation and Integration
Knowledge about the climatic system (e.g., regional models)
Knowledge Integration
Ability to convert raw scientific data into useful predictive information (e.g., probability of rainfall failure)
Ability to integrate predictive climate information with other sector information and local knowledge. Easier said than done! Ability to integrate disparate existing capacities. Find the experts. Scientists and analysts to learn region specific needs, and develop/ modify assessments in response. Two-way street. Public (Bureaucrats, NGOs) and private sector needs to be intimately involved so facilitate feedback to analysts.
Capacity Building (II): Preparedness and Response
Whose capacity?
The entire system: Knowledge generators (Scientists) Mediators (NGOs, bureaucrats, markets) End users (people, banks, private sector) Infrastructure (road, rail, telecom)
What does it require?
Linking knowledge to action.
Credible and Appropriate Knowledge Institutional adjustment Financial considerations Top-down and bottom up flows
Capacity Building: Three Core Challenges
Building Effective Knowledge Generation Systems
Meeting Financial Considerations
Who pays? Who calls the shots? How is the money spent?
A system that moves information from top-down to bottom up and vice-versa. Is credible with users That links with other efforts.
Capacity Capacity
Enabling Institutional Transformations
Bridging existing gaps within and among institutions. Making existing institutions more porous Building new institutions
Financing Knowledge systems
Institutional Transformation
Some Lessons from Disaster Mitigation Efforts (Red Cross)
No coherent risk reduction community: professionals trying to Risk reduction cannot be viewed as a technical problem with technical solutions. It is also a matter of enacting and enforcing laws,
mitigate impacts are fragmented along institutional boundaries.
Community-based approaches lead to more accurate definition of
Vulnerability and capacity assessment (VCA) can provide participants
problems and solutions, because they draw on local expertise in living with disasters. Communities at risk must trust those delivering the warnings. with greater awareness of their own potentialities. Instead of seeing themselves as victims, people tell themselves that they can influence what happens. So VCA is a capacity-building tool as well as a diagnostic measure.
building and maintaining accountable institutions, and producing an environment of mutual trust between government and the population.
Need to take a balanced approach to managing climate and non-climate risks
Give appropriate attention to all risks & uncertainties
Climate variables: Which characteristics are important? magnitude, direction, averaging period, statistical basis. How may these change? Info on low probability / high consequence events may be most uncertain but risk assessment may show these are highest risk Uncertainty in non-climate risks & impact models may be of greater significance than uncertainties over climate hazards Thresholds-based approach may help focus attention on critical uncertainties
Give appropriate attention to all risks & uncertainties
Climate variables: Which characteristics are important? magnitude, direction, averaging period, statistical basis. How may these change? Info on low probability / high consequence events may be most uncertain but risk assessment may show these are highest risk Uncertainty in non-climate risks & impact models may be of greater significance than uncertainties over climate hazards Thresholds-based approach may help focus attention on critical uncertainties
Capacity Building Institution for Climate Change: Some dos and donts
The scope of the Center must be framed in broad terms - else a
lot of narrowly focused capacity could be developed. Not very useful for concerns about economy and human security.
S&T capacity for knowledge generation is only one aspect of the picture. It is critical that capacity building address how this knowledge is Do not reinvent the wheel. Many organizations tend to begin from
used, and how feedback is incorporated. scratch when there is no need to. Leverage and build connections to existing capacity.
Research success stories before embarking on mission: Are
there other organizations that have been successful in similar missions? (CGIAR Centers? IRI? Red Cross? WHO efforts? )
Capacity Building Institution for Climate Change: Some dos and donts
Appropriate representation and participation is needed : those with understanding of local issues as well as various stakeholders (especially most vulnerable) expert communities - suitable balance of S&T, social science, public/private (knowledge generation) as well as implementation. Need to think about entrenched interests! Convince Northern institutions to cede monopoly position. Otherwise growth of center may be stunted because of difficulty in attracting talented people, finances, etc.
Thanks & Questions
