PROBABILITY
Conditional probability and independent events
13. differentiate between simple and conditional probability;
Simple Probability (also called marginal or unconditional probability)
It measures the likelihood of a single event happening, without any prior conditions.
Example
A die is rolled.
What is the probability of getting a 4?
P(4) = 1
6
Nothing else affects the outcome — it’s a standalone event.
Conditional Probability
It measures the probability of an event given that another event has already
occurred.
Example
From a deck of 52 cards, what is the probability of drawing a King given the card is a
face card?
Face cards = Jack, Queen, King → 12 cards
P(King ∣ Face card) = 4
Kings among them = 4
P(King ∣ Face card) = 1
12
14. calculate conditional probabilities;
School Scenario: Probability of Passing a Math Test
A school keeps records of students’ performance.
60% of students attend math tutorials
P(T) = 0.60
48% of students attend tutorials AND pass the test
P(T ∩ P) = 0.48
Question:
What is the probability that a student passed the math test given that they attended
tutorials?
P(P ∣ T) = P(T ∩ P)
This is a conditional probability:
P(T)
P(P ∣ T) = 0.48
Substitute values:
0.60
= 0.80
There is an 80% probability that a student passed the test given that they attended
tutorials.
Library Scenario: Students Borrowing Books
At a school library:
40% of students borrow science books
P(S) = 0.40
18% of students borrow science books AND return them late
P(S ∩ L) = 0.18
Question:
What is the probability that a student returned a book late given that they borrowed a
science book?
P(L ∣ S) = P(S ∩ L)
This is a conditional probability:
P(S)
Substitute values:
P(L∣S) = 0.18
0.40
= 0.45
There is a 45% probability that a student returned a book late given that they borrowed
a science book.
School Sports Team Tryouts
At a school:
50% of students tried out for the basketball team
P(B) = 0.50
20% of students tried out AND were selected
P(B ∩ S) = 0.20
Question:
What is the probability that a student was selected given that they tried out for the
basketball team?
P(S ∣ B) = P(B ∩ S)
This is a conditional probability:
P(B)
P(S ∣ B) = 0.20
Substitute values:
0.50
= 0.40
There is a 40% probability that a student was selected given that they tried out for the
basketball team.
Classroom Scenario: Submitting Homework on Time
At a school:
70% of students attend class regularly
P(A) = 0.70
56% of students attend class regularly AND submit homework on time
P(A ∩ H) = 0.56
Question:
What is the probability that a student submits homework on time given that they attend
class regularly?
P(H ∣ A) = P(A ∩ H)
This is a conditional probability:
P(A)
P(H ∣ A) = 0.56
Substitute the numbers:
0.70
= 0.80
There is an 80% probability that a student submits homework on time given that they
attend class regularly.
Exam Performance Scenario
At a school:
40% of students study in a study group
P(G) = 0.40
28% of students study in a study group AND score above 90% on the exam
P(G ∩ H) = 0.28
Question:
What is the probability that a student scores above 90% given that they study in a
study group?
P(H ∣ G) = P(G ∩ H)
This is a conditional probability:
P(G)
P(H ∣ G) = 0.28
Substitute the values:
0.40
= 0.70
There is a 70% probability that a student scores above 90% given that they study in a
study group.
Cafeteria Scenario: Buying Healthy Snacks
At a school:
50% of students buy snacks from the cafeteria
P(C) = 0.50
20% of students buy snacks AND choose a healthy snack
P(C ∩ H) = 0.20
Question:
What is the probability that a student chooses a healthy snack given that they buy
snacks from the cafeteria?
P(H ∣ C) = P(C ∩ H)
This is a conditional probability:
P(C)
P(H ∣ C) = 0.20
Substitute the numbers:
0.50
= 0.40
There is a 40% probability that a student chooses a healthy snack given that they buy
snacks from the cafeteria.
15. determine if two events are independent; and
Definition of Independent Events
Two events AAA and BBB are independent if the occurrence of one does not affect
the probability of the other.
Mathematically:
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B)
If this equation is true, the events are independent.
If it is false, the events are dependent.
Example 1: Flipping a Coin and Passing a Quiz
Event AAA = “Flipping heads on a coin”
Event BBB = “Passing today’s math quiz”
Check:
Coin toss has no effect on quiz results.
✅ Independent events
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B)
Flipping heads doesn’t change the chance of passing.
Example 2: Attending Extra Tutorial and Passing a Test
Event AAA = “Attending extra tutorial”
Event BBB = “Passing the test”
Check:
Students who attend tutorials are more likely to pass.
❌ Dependent events
P(A ∩ B) ≠ P(A) × P(B)
Attending tutorials affects the probability of passing.
Example 3: Wearing a School Uniform and Scoring Above 90%
Event AAA = “Wearing school uniform today”
Event BBB = “Scoring above 90% on a test”
Check:
Wearing uniform usually has no effect on test scores.
✅ Independent events
Whether a student wears a uniform does not change the probability of scoring high.
Example 4: Choosing Science Club and Getting an A in Science
Event AAA = “Joining science club”
Event BBB = “Getting an A in science class”
Check:
Students in the science club often learn more and do better.
❌ Dependent events
Joining the club affects the probability of getting an A.
Example 5: Eating Breakfast and Answering the First Question Correctly
Event AAA = “Eating breakfast”
Event BBB = “Answering the first question correctly on the exam”
Check:
Eating breakfast could improve alertness and performance.
❌ Dependent events
The probability of answering correctly is influenced by eating breakfast.
Example 6: Rolling a Die and Passing the History Test
Event AAA = “Rolling a 6 on a die”
Event BBB = “Passing the history test”
Check:
Rolling a die has no effect on exam results.
✅ Independent events
Rolling a 6 does not change the chance of passing.
Example 7: Participating in a Math Competition and Getting a Good Grade in Math
Event AAA = “Participating in math competition”
Event BBB = “Getting an A in math class”
Check:
Participation often improves knowledge and skills.
❌ Dependent events
Participating increases the probability of getting a good grade.
Example 8: Sitting in the Front Row and Wearing Glasses
Event AAA = “Sitting in the front row”
Event BBB = “Wearing glasses”
Check:
Where a student sits is usually unrelated to wearing glasses.
✅ Independent events
One does not affect the other.
Example 9: Joining the Drama Club and Performing Well in English Class
Event AAA = “Joining drama club”
Event BBB = “Scoring above 85% in English”
Check:
Drama club may improve reading and speaking skills.
❌ Dependent events
Participation can influence English performance.
Example 10: Bringing Lunch from Home and Being on Time to Class
Event AAA = “Bringing lunch from home”
Event BBB = “Arriving on time to class”
Check:
Bringing lunch probably doesn’t affect punctuality.
✅ Independent events
The two events are unrelated.
16. solve probability problems using the laws of probability and Bayes’ Rule.
Laws of Probability
The laws of probability are rules that help us calculate the chance of events
happening.
(a) Probability of an Event)
For any event AAA:
0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
0 → impossible event
1 → certain event
(b) Complement Rule
The probability that event AAA does not occur is:
P(Ac) = 1−P(A)
Example:
If P(pass test) = 0.8
then
P(fail test) = 1 − 0.8
= 0.2
(c) Addition Rule (for “or” events)
Mutually exclusive events (cannot happen together):
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Not mutually exclusive (can happen together):
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A∩B)
Example:
Probability a student is in drama club (AAA) = 0.3
Probability a student is in music club (BBB) = 0.4
Probability student is in both (A∩B) = 0.1
P(A or B) = 0.3 + 0.4 − 0.1
= 0.6
(d) Multiplication Rule (for “and” events)
P(A and B) = P(A) ⋅ P(B)
Independent events:
P(A and B) = P(A) ⋅ P(B∣A)
Dependent events:
Example:
P(Head 1 and Head 2) = 1/2 ⋅ 1/2
Two coin tosses, probability both are heads:
= 1/4