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VI – MATHEMATICS
13: PROBABILITY

Probability: The branch of mathematics that measures the uncertainty of the occurrence of
an event using numbers is called probability.
** It is the numerical measurement of the degree of certainty. Or we can say probability as
a measure of uncertainty.

Terms Related with Probability:

(i) Random Experiment: Experiments which when repeated under similar conditions do not
give the same result every time.
Example: Tossing a coin, you may get head or tail.

(ii) Trial: Performing of an experiment is called a trial. [ Experiment repeated number of

times.] Example: Tossing a coin

(iii) Event: The outcomes of an experiment are called events. [ Collection of some
outcomes of experiment]
Example: Getting a head or tail when a coin is tossed is an event.

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(iv) Outcomes: The results coming out of an experiment are called “Outcomes”.
Example: When a coin is tossed, the outcomes are ‘Head’(H) and ‘Tail’(T).
When a dice is thrown, the outcomes are
1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.

(v) Equally likely Event: Outcomes of a trial are said to be equally likely, if the outcome
is as likely to occur as the other.
Example: Tossing an unbiased coin, the outcomes head and tail are equally likely.

(vi) Favourable outcomes: Favourable outcomes are those outcomes in the total outcomes
that are favourable to the occurrence of an event.
When a dice is thrown, the total outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.
1) For finding the probability of getting a number 4, favourable outcomes = 1,
as 4 is occurred only one time in the total outcomes
2) For finding the probability of getting a number 5, favourable outcomes = 1
3) For finding the probability of getting even numbers, favourable outcomes = 3,
as there are 3 even numbers 2, 4, 6 in the total outcomes

When a word “PROBABILITY” is given and to find the probability of getting a

particular letter from out of it, we use favourable outcomes.
1) For getting a letter B, fav outcomes = 2
2) For getting a letter L, fav outcomes = 1

***Mutually Exclusive Outcomes***

Definition: Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time.
Example:
Event A: Rolling a 3.
Event B: Rolling a 5.
P(A and B) = 0 because you can't roll both a 3 and a 5 at the same time.

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Real-life Examples on Mutually Exclusive Events

• When tossing a coin, the event of getting head and tail are mutually exclusive. ...
• In a six-sided die, the events “2” and “5” are mutually exclusive. ...
• In a deck of 52 cards, drawing a red card and drawing a club are mutually exclusive
events because all the clubs are black.

***Experimental Probability***
Experimental probability can be applied to any event associated with an experiment that
is repeated a large number of times. It is also known as empirical probability.
*****Experimental or empirical probability:
𝐍𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐨𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐝
P(E) =
𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐍𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝐓𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐥𝐬

******Theoretical Probability
𝐍𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝐅𝐚𝐯𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐄
P(E) =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝑵𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒆𝒙𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒊𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕

** The chance that an event will or will not occur is expressed on a scale ranging from 0 - 1.
** It can also be represented as a percentage, where 0% denotes an impossible event and
100 % implies a certain event.

The Probability Scale

Probability Scale: 0 to 1
0 = Impossible
0.5 = Even chance( Equally Likely)
1 = Certain

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*****Sum of Probabilities:
The sum of the probabilities of all the elementary events of an experiment is one.
Example: Coin-tossing experiment.
𝟏 𝟏
P(Heads) + P(Tails) = + =1
𝟐 𝟐

****Impossible event
An event that has no chance of occurring is called an Impossible event. i.e. P(E) = 0.
** If P(E) = 0, then it is called an ‘Impossible Event’.
Example: Probability of getting a 7 on a roll of a die is 0. As 7 can never be an outcome of
this trial.

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*****Sure event (Certain Event):
An event that has a 100% probability of occurrence is called a sure event.
The probability of occurrence of a sure event is 1.
**If P(E) = 1, then it is called a ‘Certain Event’.
Example: What is the probability that a number obtained after throwing a die is less than
7?
𝟔
So, P(E) = P (Getting a number less than 7) = =1
𝟔

****Range of Probability of an event

The range of probability of an event lies between 0 and 1 inclusive of 0 and 1,
i.e. 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1.

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Important Tips
(i) Coin: A coin has two faces termed as Head and Tail.

(a) One coin tossed: Head(H) or Tail(T) are the two outcomes.
(ii) Dice: A dice is a small cube which has between one to six spots or numbers on its
sides, which is used in games.

(a) One unbiased die thrown: Then outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. (6 outcomes)

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For example:
(1) For tossing a coin,
Total number of possible outcomes = 2
(i) If the favourable outcome is head (H).
Number of favourable outcomes = 1.
𝑵𝒐:𝒐𝒇 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝑶𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟏
Therefore, P(getting a head) = = .
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟐

------------------------------------------------------------
(ii) If the favourable outcome is tail (T).
Number of favourable outcomes = 1.
𝑵𝒐:𝒐𝒇 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝑶𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟏
Therefore, P(getting a tail) = = .
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟐

(2) A letter is chosen from English Alphabets, then choosing a consonant and choosing a
vowel are complementary events.
Total number of possible outcomes = 26
Number of consonants = 21
Number of vowels = 5
𝑵𝒐:𝒐𝒇 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝑶𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝑭𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝑶𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔
P(E) = =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔
𝟐𝟏 𝟓
P(consonant) = ; P(vowel) =
𝟐𝟔 𝟐𝟔

=======================================
Example: (Dice)
(1) A fair die is thrown once. Find the probability of getting an odd number.
Solution:
When a dice is thrown, outcomes 1,2,3,4,5,6.
Out of these, 1, 3, 5 are odd numbers.
Therefore, Total number of outcomes = 6
Number of odd numbers(Favourable outcomes) = 3
𝑵𝒐:𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒐𝒅𝒅 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓𝒔 𝒂𝒑𝒑𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒓𝒆𝒅 𝟑 𝟏
Then, = =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒓𝒊𝒂𝒍𝒔 𝟔 𝟐

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 (2) A letter is chosen at random from the word “STATISTICS”. The probability of getting a
(a) vowel (b) letter ‘S’ (c) letter ‘I’
Ans:
Total number of letters in “STATISTICS” = 10
𝑵𝒐:𝒐𝒇 𝒗𝒐𝒘𝒆𝒍𝒔 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒘𝒐𝒓𝒅 𝟑
(a) P(Getting a vowel) = =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒍𝒆𝒕𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒔 𝟏𝟎
𝑵𝒐:𝒐𝒇 ′𝑺′ 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒘𝒐𝒓𝒅 𝟑
(b) P(Getting a letter ‘S’) = =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒍𝒆𝒕𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒔 𝟏𝟎
𝑵𝒐:𝒐𝒇 𝑰 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒘𝒐𝒓𝒅 𝟐
(c) P(Getting a letter ‘I’) = =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒍𝒆𝒕𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒔 𝟏𝟎
===================================================================

(3) Each letter of the word “MATHEMATICS” is written on a separate card. The cards are
placed face down. One card is chosen without looking. Work out the probability that the
card chosen is
(a) vowel (b) letter ‘S’ (c) letter ‘M’ (d) A (e) G
Ans:
Total number of letters in “MATHEMATICS” = 11
𝑵𝒐:𝒐𝒇 𝒗𝒐𝒘𝒆𝒍𝒔 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒘𝒐𝒓𝒅 𝟒
(a) P(Getting a vowel) = =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒍𝒆𝒕𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒔 𝟏𝟏
𝑵𝒐:𝒐𝒇 ′𝑺′ 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒘𝒐𝒓𝒅 𝟏
(b) P(Getting a letter ‘S’) = =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒍𝒆𝒕𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒔 𝟏𝟏
𝑵𝒐:𝒐𝒇 𝑴 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒘𝒐𝒓𝒅 𝟐
(c) P(Getting a letter ‘M’) = =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒍𝒆𝒕𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒔 𝟏𝟏
𝑵𝒐:𝒐𝒇 𝑨 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒘𝒐𝒓𝒅 𝟐
(d) P(Getting a letter ‘A’) = =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒍𝒆𝒕𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒔 𝟏𝟏
𝑵𝒐:𝒐𝒇 𝑮 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒘𝒐𝒓𝒅 𝟎
(e) P(Getting a letter ‘G’) = = =0
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒍𝒆𝒕𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒔 𝟏𝟏
============================================================
4) What is the probability that a number selected from the numbers 1, 2, 3, …., 16 is a prime
number?
Solution:
Total number of outcomes = 16
Favourable outcomes = prime numbers from 1 to 16 = 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13.
∴ No: of favourable outcomes = 6

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 𝑵𝒐:𝒐𝒇 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟔 𝟑
P(Selecting a prime number from 1 to 16) = = =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟏𝟔 𝟖

=======================================================================
5) A bag contains 6 red balls and 8 white balls. A ball is drawn at random. What is the
probability that the ball drawn is white?
Solution:
Total No: of balls = 6 + 8 = 14
Number of white balls = 8
𝑵𝒐:𝒐𝒇 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟖 𝟒
P ( Getting a white ball) = = =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟏𝟒 𝟕

===========================================================================
6) An urn contains 3 red ,5 blue,4 green and 6 orange marbles. A marble is drawn from the
urn at random, what is the probability that it is : (a) a green marble (b) not a red marble
(c) either blue or orange marble (d) an orange marble
Solution:
Total number of marbles = 3 + 5 + 6 + 4 = 18
(a) a green marble
Number of green marbles = 4
𝑵𝒐:𝒐𝒇 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟒 𝟐
P ( Getting a green marble) = = =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟏𝟖 𝟗

----------------------------------------------------------------
(b) not a red marble
Number of red marbles = 3
𝑵𝒐:𝒐𝒇 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟑 𝟏
P ( Getting a red marble) = = =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟏𝟖 𝟔
𝟏 𝟓
∴ P ( Getting not a red marble) = 1 - =
𝟔 𝟔

−--------------------------------------------------------------
(c) either blue or orange marbles

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 Number of blue marbles = 5
Number of orange marbles = 6
P ( Getting a either blue or orange marble)
= P ( Getting not a blue marble) + P ( Getting not a orange marble)
𝑵𝒐:𝒐𝒇 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟓 𝟔 𝟏𝟏
= = 𝟏𝟖 + 𝟏𝟖 = 𝟏𝟖
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔

OR
Favourable outcomes = 5 + 6 = 11
𝑵𝒐:𝒐𝒇 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟏𝟏
P ( Getting a either blue or orange marble) = = 𝟏𝟖
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔

----------------------------------------------------------------
(d) an orange marble
Number of orange marbles = 6
𝑵𝒐:𝒐𝒇 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟔 𝟏
P ( Getting an orange marble) = = =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟏𝟖 𝟑

==================================================
7) A survey of 200 families in a society shows the following results:

No: of cars owned by a family 0 1 2 3 or More

No: of families 20 105 60 15

Out of these families, one is chosen at random.

What is the probability that the chosen family has:
(a) no car (b) 2 cars (c) more than 1 car (d) 3 or more cars
Solution:
Total number of families = 200
(a) no car

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No: of families with no car = 20
𝑵𝒐:𝒐𝒇 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟐𝟎 𝟏
∴ P(getting a family with no car) = = =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟐𝟎𝟎 𝟏𝟎

=================
(b) 2 cars
No: of families with 2 cars = 60
𝑵𝒐:𝒐𝒇 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟔𝟎 𝟑
∴ P(getting a family with 2 cars) = = =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟐𝟎𝟎 𝟏𝟎

=======================================
(c) more than 1 car
No: of families with more than 1 car = 60 + 15 = 75
𝑵𝒐:𝒐𝒇 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟕𝟓 𝟑
∴ P(getting a family with more than 1 car) = = =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟐𝟎𝟎 𝟖

===================
(d) 3 or more cars
No: of families with 3 or more cars = 15
𝑵𝒐:𝒐𝒇 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟏𝟓 𝟑
∴ P(getting a family with 3 or more cars) = = =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟐𝟎𝟎 𝟒𝟎

8) Here is a spinner.

What is the probability that the spinner will land on the green section?
Total number of sections = 8
Number of green sections = 2
𝟐 𝟏
probability that the spinner will land on the green section = =
𝟖 𝟒

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9) A computer simulation gives these results for 200 spins.

Total frequency = 200

𝟏𝟖 𝟗
P(Green) = = = 0.09
𝟐𝟎𝟎 𝟏𝟎𝟎

𝟏𝟐𝟖 𝟏𝟔
P(Blue) = = = 0.64
𝟐𝟎𝟎 𝟐𝟓

𝟓𝟒 𝟐𝟕
P(Pink) = = = 0.27
𝟐𝟎𝟎 𝟏𝟎𝟎

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