WEEKLY

MARKET
UPDATE
REP-300
Oct 10, 2025

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 Pakistan Weekly Update
Market pulls back
▪ The KSE-100 Index closed the week at 163,098, recedes 5,892 points (-3.49% WoW). The
Figure: KSE100 Index and PSX Volume
overall market faced heavy selling pressure this week, primarily due to profit-taking. Volume (RHS) KSE100 Index (mn Shares)

▪ According to the 114th Meeting of National Accounts Committee (NAC), the GDP growth rate for 169,500 1,820
1,570
FY25 clocked in at 3.04%, compared to the estimated 2.68%. Overall GDP showed upward
168,000 1,600
revisions in the first three quarters, from 1.37% to 1.80% in Q1, 1.53% to 1.94% in Q2, and
1,266 1,401
2.40% to 2.79% in Q3. The economy recorded a stable growth rate of 5.66% during Q4 of FY25, 166,500 1,380
1,274 1,275
with sectoral growth rates of 0.18% in agriculture, 19.95% in industry, and 3.72% in services.
165,000 1,160
▪ Central government debt shed 1.0% MoM to PKR 77.5trn (+10.1% YoY) as of Aug'25 compared
with PKR 70.4trn in Aug’24. 163,500 940

▪ Oil Production witnessed an increase of 0.3% WoW, arriving at 64,493bopd. Gas production
162,000 720
observed an increase of 3.1% WoW, settling at 2,900mmcfd on the back of increase in
production from Makori East, Nashpa, and Uch. 160,500 500
6-Oct 7-Oct 8-Oct 9-Oct 10-Oct
▪ Remittances by overseas Pakistani increased by 11% YoY to USD 3.18bn during Sep'25
Source (s): PSX, AHL Research
compared to USD 2.9bn during Sep’24. On MoM basis, remittances increased by 1.45%.In
1QFY26, remittances increased by 8%YoY to USD 9.6bn.

▪ Pakistan’s FX reserves rose to USD 19.81bn (+USD 13.7mn WoW), including SBP reserves of Exhibit: PSX Indices Performance
USD 14.42bn (+USD 20mn WoW).
Index Current WoW (%) CY25TD (%)
▪ The PKR appreciated marginally by 0.03% WoW, closing at 281.17 against the USD.
KSE100 163,098 (3.5) 41.7
Outlook and Recommendation
KSEAll 99,276 (3.3) 37.6
▪ Next week marks the start of the results season, with investors set to closely monitor key
KSE30 50,185 (4.0) 38.7
corporate announcements. Market momentum is expected to build on corporate earnings and
developments on the IMF front. KMI30 238,334 (4.4) 33.4
▪ The KSE-100 Index is currently trading at a forward PER of 8.21x (2026) against its 15-year BKTi 45,654 (3.7) 76.6
average of 8.59x, offering a compelling dividend yield of ~6.3% versus the historical average of
~6.11%. OGTi 32,313 (5.7) 5.2

▪ Our top picks include OGDC, PPL, MEBL, NBP, MCB, FFC, LUCK, GAL, MUGHAL, PAEL, Source (s): PSX, AHL Research
FCCL, KOHC, PSO, and ATRL.

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Pakistan Weekly Update
Market Data
Exhibit: PSX Volume Leaders
Sector Wise Contribution
Avg. Vol. (mn) Closing
The sectors that contributed negatively were i) Banks (1,722pts), ii) E&P (1,081pts),
KEL 142.9 7.1
iii) Cement (866pts), iv) Inv. Banks (548pts), and v) Power (482pts). Meanwhile,
WTL 109.5 1.7
sector-wise positive contributions came from i) Technology (179pts),
PTC 108.3 37.3
ii) Insurance (42pts), iii) Paper & Board (7pts), iv) Close-End Mutual Funds (0.4pts)
and v) Leasing Companies (0.1pts). BOP 106.2 32.1
CNERGY 54.8 8.3
Scrip wise Contribution
Scrip wise negative contributions came from UBL (820pts), ENGROH (539pts), Source (s): PSX, AHL Research
HUBC (477pts), LUCK (380pts) and MARI (375pts) Whereas, Scrip-wise positive
contributors were PTC (160pts), SYS (69pts), ABL (44pts), AICL (42pts) Exhibit: KSE All Market Capitalization
and AKBL (24pts). Current WoW (%) CY25TD (%)

Volume & Value PKR bn 18,912 (3.8) 30.5

Average volumes arrived at 1,357mn shares (down by 8.5% WoW), while the USD bn 67 (3.8) 29.2
average value traded settled at USD 195mn (down 24% WoW). Source (s): PSX, AHL Research

Figure: Major Gainers (KSE100 Index) Figure: Major Losers (KSE100 Index)
32% SSOM ISL TGL PAEL CNERGY
27.5% -5%
27%
-10% -9%
22% -9%
-10%

-15% -13%
17%

12% -20%

6.2% 5.7%
7%
3.2% -25%
2.7%
2%
PTC ABL AICL POL GHNI -30% -29%

Source (s): PSX, AHL Research Source (s): PSX, AHL Research

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Pakistan Weekly Update
KSE-100 Top Index Contributors
Figure: Bullish Companies ( Points Contributed) Figure: Bearish Companies (Points Contributed)
170 160 UBL ENGROH HUBC LUCK MARI
-100
150

130 -250

110 -400
-380 -375
90
-550 -477
69
70 -539

50 44 42 -700

30 24
-850
-820
10
PTC SYS ABL AICL AKBL -1000
Source (s): PSX, AHL Research Source (s): PSX, AHL Research

Figure: Bullish Sectors (Points Contributed) Figure: Bearish Sectors (Points Contributed)

210 Banks E&Ps Cement Inv Banks Power

179 -200
180

150 -500
-482
-548
120 -800
-866
90
-1,100
-1,081
60 42
-1,400
30
7 0 0 -1,700
0
-1,722
Technology Insurance Paper & Board Close - End Leasing
mutual fund -2,000
Source (s): PSX, AHL Research Source (s): PSX, AHL Research

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Pakistan Weekly Update
Regional Comparison
Figure: Regional Dividend Yield (%) Figure: Regional Price to Earning (x)
7 20 18.2
16.3
5.6 5.5
6 16
13.8 13.5
12.4 12.3
5 4.1 12 11.1
3.4 3.4 9.0 8.9
3.1 8.5
3 9
2.2
1.9 2.0
2 5
1.3
1
1

Sri Lanka
Pakistan

Thailand

India
Taiwan

[Link]
Philippines

China

Vietnam
Indonesia

India

Thailand

Pakistan
Taiwan

Sri Lanka
China

Vietnam

[Link]

Philippines
Indonesia
Source (s): Bloomberg, AHL Research Source (s): Bloomberg, AHL Research

Figure: Regional Return on Equity (%) Figure: Regional Price to Book (x)
21 4
18.6
3.1
17 15.5 3 2.9
15.2
13.6 13.3
12.3 11.9
13 2
1.9 1.7 1.7
8.3 1.6
9 7.2 7.2 2 1.3
1.2 1.1 1.1

5 1

1 0
India
Pakistan

Thailand
Sri Lanka

Taiwan

China

[Link]
Vietnam

Philippines

Indonesia

Thailand
India

Pakistan
Taiwan

Vietnam

Sri Lanka

China

[Link]
Philippines
Indonesia
Source (s): Bloomberg, AHL Research Source (s): Bloomberg, AHL Research

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 Pakistan Weekly Update
Foreign Investors Portfolio Investment (USD mn)
FIPI Normal FIPI Normal

Current Week* Last Week

Category Gross Buy Gross Sell Net Net Category Gross Buy Gross Sell Net Net

Foreign Individuals 0.19 0.19 SELL (0.00) Foreign Individuals 0.03 0.04 SELL (0.01)
Foreign Corporates 6.40 19.62 SELL (13.22) Foreign Corporates 6.79 15.95 SELL (9.16)
Overseas Pakistani 63.10 55.87 BUY 7.23 Overseas Pakistani 95.48 93.56 BUY 1.92
Total 69.69 75.68 SELL (5.99) Total 102.30 109.55 SELL (7.25)

FIPI Sector Wise FIPI Sector Wise

Current Week* Last Week

Sector Gross Buy Gross Sell Net Net Sector Gross Buy Gross Sell Net Net

Commercial Banks 11.15 12.38 SELL (1.23) Commercial Banks 19.52 17.11 BUY 2.41
Fertilizer 1.12 3.28 SELL (2.16) Fertilizer 3.15 5.95 SELL (2.79)
Cement 4.21 4.23 SELL (0.02) Cement 8.37 10.54 SELL (2.17)
Power Generation & Distribution 5.08 9.93 SELL (4.85) Power Generation & Distribution 7.29 8.65 SELL (1.36)
Exploration & Production 3.79 5.55 SELL (1.77) Exploration & Production 6.43 8.10 SELL (1.67)
Oil & Gas Marketing Companies 8.53 7.67 BUY 0.86 Oil & Gas Marketing Companies 10.32 11.71 SELL (1.39)
Food and Personal Care Products 2.62 2.74 SELL (0.12) Food and Personal Care Products 5.73 7.11 SELL (1.37)
Textile Composite 0.63 0.80 SELL (0.17) Textile Composite 0.90 1.79 SELL (0.90)
Technology and Communication 12.68 10.08 BUY 2.60 Technology and Communication 7.78 7.72 BUY 0.06
Debt - - SELL 0.00 Debt 0.00 - BUY 0.00
All other Sectors 19.89 19.02 BUY 0.87 All other Sectors 32.81 30.87 BUY 1.94
Total 69.69 75.68 SELL (5.99) Total 102.30 109.55 SELL (7.25)

Source (s): NCCPL, AHL Research, from Oct 6th till Oct 9th

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 Pakistan Weekly Update
Local Investors Portfolio Investment (USD mn)
LIPI Normal LIPI Normal
Current Week* Last Week
Category Gross Buy Gross Sell Net Net Category Gross Buy Gross Sell Net Net
Individuals 726.04 696.41 BUY 29.63 Individuals 1,098.12 1,063.82 BUY 34.31
Companies 37.31 37.31 SELL (0.01) Companies 43.52 64.38 SELL (20.86)
Banks / DFIs 155.22 17.83 BUY 137.38 Banks / DFIs 180.90 200.10 SELL (19.20)
NBFC 0.30 0.24 BUY 0.06 NBFC 0.99 0.99 SELL (0.00)
Mutual Funds 61.26 185.27 SELL (124.01) Mutual Funds 96.32 50.58 BUY 45.74
Other Organizations 4.83 5.23 SELL (0.40) Other Organizations 16.76 22.38 SELL (5.61)
Broker Proprietary Trading 115.72 126.12 SELL (10.40) Broker Proprietary Trading 159.72 157.60 BUY 2.12
Insurance Companies 14.58 40.84 SELL (26.25) Insurance Companies 22.45 51.69 SELL (29.25)
Total 1,115.26 1,109.27 BUY 5.99 Total 1,618.78 1,611.53 BUY 7.25

LIPI Sector Wise LIPI Sector Wise

Current Week* Last Week
Sector Gross Buy Gross Sell Net Net Sector Gross Buy Gross Sell Net Net
Commercial Banks 182.45 181.22 BUY 1.23 Commercial Banks 254.88 257.29 SELL (2.41)
Fertilizer 32.37 30.21 BUY 2.16 Fertilizer 58.34 55.54 BUY 2.79
Cement 59.18 59.16 BUY 0.02 Cement 129.82 127.64 BUY 2.17
Power Generation & Distribution 77.72 72.87 BUY 4.85 Power Generation & Distribution 91.84 90.48 BUY 1.36
Exploration & Production 63.27 61.50 BUY 1.77 Exploration & Production 114.56 112.90 BUY 1.67
Oil & Gas Marketing Companies 138.95 139.81 SELL (0.86) Oil & Gas Marketing Companies 151.55 150.16 BUY 1.39
Food and Personal Care Products 44.12 44.00 BUY 0.12 Food and Personal Care Products 93.14 91.76 BUY 1.37
Textile Composite 5.26 5.09 BUY 0.17 Textile Composite 10.93 10.04 BUY 0.90
Technology and Communication 106.86 109.46 SELL (2.60) Technology and Communication 100.69 100.75 SELL (0.06)
Debt 139.10 139.10 SELL (0.00) Debt 152.43 152.43 SELL (0.00)
All other Sectors 265.99 266.86 SELL (0.87) All other Sectors 460.62 462.55 SELL (1.94)
Total 1,115.26 1,109.27 BUY 5.99 Total 1,618.78 1,611.53 BUY 7.25
th th
Source (s): NCCPL, AHL Research, from Oct 6 till Oct 9

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Analyst Certification and Disclaimer
Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) is (are) principally responsible for preparation of this report. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the
analyst(s) about the subject security (ies) or sector (or economy), and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report. In addition, we currently do not have any interest (financial or otherwise) in the subject security (ies). Furthermore,
compensation of the Analyst(s) is not determined nor based on any other service(s) that AHL is offering. Analyst(s) are not subject to the supervision or control of any employee of AHL’s non-research
departments, and no personal engaged in providing non-research services have any influence or control over the compensatory evaluation of the Analyst(s).

Equity Research Ratings

Arif Habib Limited (AHL) uses three rating categories, depending upon return form current market price, with Target period as Jun 2026 for Target Price. In addition, return excludes all type of taxes. For
more details, kindly refer the following table;

Rating Description
BUY Upside* of subject security(ies) is more than +15% from last closing of market price(s)
HOLD Upside* of subject security(ies) is between 0% and +15% from last closing of market price(s)
SELL Upside* of subject security(ies) is less than 0% from last closing of market price(s)

Equity Valuation Methodology

AHL Research uses the following valuation technique(s) to arrive at the period end target prices;
▪ Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
▪ Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
▪ Sum of the Parts (SoTP)
▪ Justified Price to Book (JPTB)
▪ Reserved Base Valuation (RBV)

Risks: The following risks may potentially impact our valuations of subject security (ies);
▪ Market risk
▪ Interest Rate Risk
▪ Exchange Rate (Currency) Risk

Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by Research analysts at Arif Habib Limited (AHL). This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. This
publication is intended only for distribution to the clients of the Company who are assumed to be reasonably sophisticated investors that understand the risks involved in investing in equity securities.
The information contained herein is based upon publicly available data and sources believed to be reliable. While every care was taken to ensure accuracy and objectivity, AHL does not represent that it
is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. In particular, the report takes no account of the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of investors. The information
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Disclosure required under Research Analyst Regulations, 2015:

In order to avoid any conflict of interest, we hereby disclosed that;
Arif Habib Limited (AHL) has a shareholding in NBP and BOP.