MODULE 9 WHY DOES THE FUTURE NOT NEED US?
LESSON PROPER
Artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence (AI) is technology that enables computers and machines to
simulate human learning, comprehension, problem solving, decision making, creativity
and autonomy.
Artificial intelligence (AI), the ability of a digital computer or computer-
controlled robot to perform tasks commonly associated with intelligent beings. The term
is frequently applied to the project of developing systems endowed with
the intellectual processes characteristic of humans, such as the ability to reason,
discover meaning, generalize, or learn from past experience. Since their development in
the 1940s, digital computers have been programmed to carry out very complex tasks—
such as discovering proofs for mathematical theorems or playing chess—with great
proficiency. Despite continuing advances in computer processing speed and memory
capacity, there are as yet no programs that can match full human flexibility over wider
domains or in tasks requiring much everyday knowledge. On the other hand, some
programs have attained the performance levels of human experts and professionals in
executing certain specific tasks, so that artificial intelligence in this limited sense is
found in applications as diverse as medical diagnosis, computer search engines, voice
or handwriting recognition, and chatbots.
Different types of artificial intelligence
AI capabilities have been evolving steadily since the breakthrough development
of artificial neural networks in 2012, which allow machines to engage in reinforcement
learning and simulate how the human brain processes information.
Unlike basic machine learning models, deep learning models allow AI
applications to learn how to perform new tasks that need human intelligence, engage in
new behaviors and make decisions without human intervention. As a result, deep
learning has enabled task automation, content generation, predictive maintenance and
other capabilities across industries.
Due to deep learning and other advancements, the field of AI remains in a
constant and fast-paced state of flux. Our collective understanding of realized AI and
theoretical AI continues to shift, meaning AI categories and AI terminology may differ
(and overlap) from one source to the next. However, the types of AI can be largely
understood by examining two encompassing categories: AI capabilities and AI
functionalities.
The Three Kinds Of AI Based on Capabilities
1. Artificial Narrow AI
Artificial Narrow Intelligence, also known as Weak AI (what we refer to as Narrow
AI), is the only type of AI that exists today. Any other form of AI is theoretical. It can be
trained to perform a single or narrow task, often far faster and better than a human mind
can.
However, it can’t perform outside of its defined task. Instead, it targets a single
subset of cognitive abilities and advances in that spectrum. Siri, Amazon’s Alexa and
IBM Watson® are examples of Narrow AI. Even OpenAI’s ChatGPT is considered a
form of Narrow AI because it’s limited to the single task of text-based chat.
2. General AI
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), also known as Strong AI, is today nothing
more than a theoretical concept. AGI can use previous learnings and skills to
accomplish new tasks in a different context without the need for human beings to train
the underlying models. This ability allows AGI to learn and perform any intellectual task
that a human being can.
3. Super AI
Super AI is commonly referred to as artificial superintelligence and, like AGI, is
strictly theoretical. If ever realized, Super AI would think, reason, learn, make
judgements and possess cognitive abilities that surpass those of human beings.
The applications possessing Super AI capabilities will have evolved beyond the point of
understanding human sentiments and experiences to feel emotions, have needs and
possess beliefs and desires of their own.
The Four Types of AI Based on Functionalities
Underneath Narrow AI, one of the three types based on capabilities, there are
two functional AI categories:
1. Reactive Machine AI
Reactive machines are AI systems with no memory and are designed to perform
a very specific task. Since they can’t recollect previous outcomes or decisions, they
only work with presently available data. Reactive AI stems from statistical math and can
analyze vast amounts of data to produce a seemingly intelligent output.
Examples of Reactive Machine AI
IBM Deep Blue: IBM’s chess-playing supercomputer AI beat chess grandmaster
Garry Kasparov in the late 1990s by analyzing the pieces on the board and
predicting the probable outcomes of each move.
The Netflix Recommendation Engine: Netflix’s viewing recommendations are
powered by models that process data sets collected from viewing history to
provide customers with content they’re most likely to enjoy.
2. Limited Memory AI
Unlike Reactive Machine AI, this form of AI can recall past events and outcomes
and monitor specific objects or situations over time. Limited Memory AI can use past-
and present-moment data to decide on a course of action most likely to help achieve a
desired outcome.
However, while Limited Memory AI can use past data for a specific amount of
time, it can’t retain that data in a library of past experiences to use over a long-term
period. As it’s trained on more data over time, Limited Memory AI can improve in
performance.
Examples of Limited Memory AI
IBM Deep Blue: IBM’s chess-playing supercomputer AI beat chess grandmaster
Garry Kasparov in the late 1990s by analyzing the pieces on the board and
predicting the probable outcomes of each move.
The Netflix Recommendation Engine: Netflix’s viewing recommendations are
powered by models that process data sets collected from viewing history to
provide customers with content they’re most likely to enjoy.
2. Limited Memory AI
Unlike Reactive Machine AI, this form of AI can recall past events and outcomes
and monitor specific objects or situations over time. Limited Memory AI can use past-
and present-moment data to decide on a course of action most likely to help achieve a
desired outcome.
However, while Limited Memory AI can use past data for a specific amount of
time, it can’t retain that data in a library of past experiences to use over a long-term
period. As it’s trained on more data over time, Limited Memory AI can improve in
performance.
Examples of Limited Memory AI
Generative AI: Generative AI tools such as ChatGPT, Bard and DeepAI rely on
limited memory AI capabilities to predict the next word, phrase or visual element
within the content it’s generating.
Virtual assistants and chatbots: Siri, Alexa, Google Assistant, Cortana and IBM
Watson Assistant combine natural language processing (NLP) and Limited
Memory AI to understand questions and requests, take appropriate actions and
compose responses.
Self-driving cars: Autonomous vehicles use Limited Memory AI to understand the
world around them in real-time and make informed decisions on when to apply
speed, brake, make a turn, etc.
3. Theory of Mind AI
Theory of Mind AI is a functional class of AI that falls underneath the General AI.
Though an unrealized form of AI today, AI with Theory of Mind functionality would
understand the thoughts and emotions of other entities. This understanding can affect
how the AI interacts with those around them. In theory, this would allow the AI to
simulate human-like relationships.
Because Theory of Mind AI could infer human motives and reasoning, it would
personalize its interactions with individuals based on their unique emotional needs and
intentions. Theory of Mind AI would also be able to understand and contextualize
artwork and essays, which today’s generative AI tools are unable to do.
Emotion AI is a theory of mind AI currently in development. AI researchers hope
it will have the ability to analyze voices, images and other kinds of data to recognize,
simulate, monitor and respond appropriately to humans on an emotional level. To date,
Emotion AI is unable to understand and respond to human feelings.
4. Self-Aware AI
Self-Aware AI is a kind of functional AI class for applications that would possess
super AI capabilities. Like theory of mind AI, Self-Aware AI is strictly theoretical. If ever
achieved, it would have the ability to understand its own internal conditions and traits
along with human emotions and thoughts. It would also have its own set of emotions,
needs and beliefs.
Emotion AI is a Theory of Mind AI currently in development. Researchers hope it
will have the ability to analyze voices, images and other kinds of data to recognize,
simulate, monitor and respond appropriately to humans on an emotional level. To date,
Emotion AI is unable to understand and respond to human feelings.
Reflection on Joy’s “Does the Future Need Us?”
The arrival of the present millennium filled many with a sense of hope for the
future. This hope is underwritten by a continuing faith in the technological and scientific
progress that has produced so many things that we have come to take for granted,
among them the Internet. In the year 2000, Bill Joy, co-founder of Sun Microsystems,
wrote a provocative article for Wired magazine entitled “Why the Future Doesn’t Need
Us,” arguing that human beings face the realistic possibility of extinction because of
competition from intelligent robots, which are made possible by technological
advancements in artificial intelligence. Furthermore, 21st-century technologies – genetic
engineering, nanotechnology and robotics – have the potential to significantly extend
the average human lifespan, but they are so powerful that in them also lurk grave
dangers. Joy locates these dangers in the potential (or actual) ability of robots,
engineered organisms and nanobots to self-replicate. If these technologies go out of
control, this amplifying factor can lead to substantial damage in the physical world, not
unlike the potential of computer viruses to do harm. Worse, unlike conventional
“weapons of mass destruction,” 21st-century technologies are much more readily
available to individuals or small groups, and having knowledge alone is sufficient to
enable their deployment.
Joy’s article is a goldmine for those who, in a triumphant spirit, want to continue
championing technological progress as an unmitigated good: many of the worst-case
scenarios about which he worries have not come to pass. But is he really that far off?
The thought that humans may become economically redundant at some point may
appear less and less of a fantasy if we continue along the trajectory of unbridled
technological progress outlined by Joy, and enabled by a combination of the logic of
capitalism and our human hopes and fears. The frightening possibility is that the future
economy is one that has no need for us, if 21 st-century technologies can do everything
better, cheaper and faster than humans can. As Joy notes:
“…with the prospect of human-level computing power in about 30 years, a new
idea suggests itself: that I may be working to create tools which will enable the
construction of the technology that may replace our species. How do I feel about this?
Very uncomfortable… And if our own extinction is a likely, or even possible, outcome of
our technological development, shouldn’t we proceed with great caution?”
This raises pressing questions about human life and society. Here I wish to offer
another extreme possibility for us to consider. An alternative to Joy’s dystopian picture,
a comparatively sanguine outcome, was outlined by Karl Marx in The German Ideology:
“…in communist society, where nobody has one exclusive sphere of activity but
each can become accomplished in any branch he wishes, society regulates the general
production and thus makes it possible for me to do one thing today and another
tomorrow, to hunt in the morning, fish in the afternoon, rear cattle in the evening,
criticise after dinner, just as I have a mind, without ever becoming hunter, fisherman,
herdsman or critic.”
For Marx, what follows machines making human beings redundant is a scenario
in which we can be freed from being mere appendages of machines; we then have the
leisure to realise possibilities formerly impossible, finally being able to focus on attaining
self-realisation and not needing to work more than what is necessary. Machines will
take care of repetitive and toilsome labour on our behalf. The division of labour and
narrow specialisation gives way to the free choice of whatever interests the individual,
not just for the few, but also for the many.
But why should this scenario obtain (and how can we ensure that it does), and
not Joy’s alternative of human extinction? To view human beings merely in terms of
economic value is to not view them as having intrinsic worth, and if so, we may be
overtaken by machines sooner than we think. Lacking an understanding of our essence
and identity, of what makes us human, we may be unable to articulate what makes us
worth keeping around. This is not to say that such an understanding is easy, or even
possible to achieve. But in its absence (or perhaps even with it), we may go the way of
the dinosaurs, if we are unable (or unwilling) to stop this process. In one of the many
memorable quotes from Joy’s article, George Dyson warns, “In the game of life and
evolution there are three players at the table: human beings, nature, and machines. I
am firmly on the side of nature. But nature, I suspect, is on the side of the machines.”
There is good reason to believe that at many points in world history, good sense
and the human spirit have prevailed. But even if extreme possibilities are unlikely to
come to pass, we should still proceed with caution and a sense of moderation. At any
rate, it is not too early to start pondering strategies, policies and legislation, because the
future is almost here.
References:
Shane. (2021, April 13). Does the future need us? Some reflections on joy. The HEAD
Foundation. [Link]
reflections-on-joy/
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