0% found this document useful (0 votes)
13 views5 pages

DCF Modelling

The document introduces a course on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modelling in Excel, emphasizing the importance of understanding business valuation for aspiring financial analysts. It outlines the 'Three Golden Pillars of DCF'—Cash, Growth, and Risk—detailing their significance in performing effective valuations. The instructor encourages a strong foundational knowledge and practical application through hands-on practice and community engagement.

Uploaded by

Tarun Singh
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
0% found this document useful (0 votes)
13 views5 pages

DCF Modelling

The document introduces a course on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modelling in Excel, emphasizing the importance of understanding business valuation for aspiring financial analysts. It outlines the 'Three Golden Pillars of DCF'—Cash, Growth, and Risk—detailing their significance in performing effective valuations. The instructor encourages a strong foundational knowledge and practical application through hands-on practice and community engagement.

Uploaded by

Tarun Singh
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Alright class, welcome to "The Valuation School"!

Today, we're going to


dive into the fascinating world of Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
modelling in Excel. This is not just about punching numbers into a
spreadsheet; it's about truly understanding how to value a business,
which is a critical skill for anyone aspiring to be a financial analyst.

Our instructor for this session, Parth, stresses that this series aims to take
you beyond just being a "financial modeller" and help you become a
capable analyst. He promises that if you stick with this series, you'll gain
an unparalleled understanding of DCF modelling.

Before we begin, remember that this is a modelling session, not a


valuation theory session, so we'll jump straight into the practical
application. However, a strong foundation is key. You should have a basic
understanding of the Time Value of Money and basic accounting
terminology.

The Three Golden Pillars of DCF Valuation

Whenever you're performing a DCF valuation or modelling, there are


three fundamental components you absolutely must grasp. Think of
them as the "Three Golden Pillars of DCF":

1. Cash: How much cash does the business generate today, and how
much will it generate in the future?

2. Growth: What are the chances that this cash will grow significantly
in the future?

3. Risk: What is the risk associated with this future growth?

Let's break these down one by one.

1. Cash: The Lifeblood of a Business

Our first pillar is Cash. As the saying goes, "Cash is King". The value of
any business is directly proportional to how much cash it generates today
and how much it is expected to generate in the future. If a business has
no future cash generation, its value is, effectively, zero.

It's crucial to understand that valuation is always forward-looking.


We're not looking at historical data; we're forecasting what the business
will do in the future.

Now, an important distinction: DCF is for valuing a going concern business


that expects to generate cash flows indefinitely. It's different from Capital
Budgeting, which is used for projects with a definite end. For example, if
an infrastructure company builds a toll road that will operate for exactly
25 years and then stop, you'd use Capital Budgeting (Net Present Value -
NPV) to evaluate that specific project, not DCF.

When we talk about cash flows for DCF, we generally refer to Free Cash
Flows. There are two main types:

 Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF): This represents the cash flow
available to all capital providers of the company (both equity
shareholders and debt holders).

 Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE): This represents the cash flow
available only to equity shareholders.

The choice between FCFF and FCFE depends on what you want to value:

 If you want to calculate the Enterprise Value (the value of the


entire business), you start with FCFF.

 If you want to calculate the Equity Value (the value attributable


solely to equity shareholders), you start with FCFE.

A key principle to remember in valuation is the Principle of


Consistency. This means that the cash flow you choose (the numerator)
must be consistent with the discount rate you use (the denominator).

For example, to calculate FCFF, you'd start with your Operating Income
(how much money the business makes from its core operations), then
deduct taxes to arrive at Net Operating Income After Tax. This amount
is what's available to both debt and equity holders because interest hasn't
been paid yet. After accounting for non-cash items like depreciation and
other adjustments (which will be covered in detail later), you arrive at the
FCFF.

2. Growth: Projecting the Future

Our second pillar is Growth. We're trying to figure out how much this cash
will grow into the future.

A common question is, "How long should I forecast?". The answer is, it
depends. You don't forecast cash flows for 16,384 years!. Businesses are
generally assumed to be a going concern, meaning they'll operate
indefinitely. Since we can't forecast forever, we use the concept of
Terminal Value.

The forecasting period is typically divided into two parts:

 Explicit Forecast Period: This is the period where the business is


expected to have high growth, usually higher than the GDP growth
rate or the industry average. For a tech startup, this might be 5
years, while for a stable company like one producing baby food
(e.g., Cerelac), it might be less pronounced or moderate. This period
is typically 3, 5, or 10 years depending on the business life cycle.

 Terminal Period: After the explicit high-growth period, a business


is assumed to settle into a stable, sustainable growth rate that
is often closer to the long-term GDP growth or industry growth. This
is where the concept of Terminal Value comes in. It captures the
value of all cash flows beyond the explicit forecast period.

The Terminal Value calculation is highly sensitive and often accounts for a
very significant portion of the total valuation – sometimes as much as
78% to 85% of the total business value in a DCF model. This means that
even small changes in the assumptions for the Terminal Value can
drastically impact your final valuation.

We'll cover two main approaches to calculate Terminal Value:

1. Gordon Growth Model: This model assumes a constant, perpetual


growth rate beyond the explicit forecast period.

2. Exit Multiples: This approach uses a valuation multiple (e.g.,


EV/EBITDA, P/E) at the end of the explicit forecast period to estimate
the business's terminal value.

3. Risk: Discounting Future Cash Flows

Our final pillar is Risk. How do we account for the risk associated with
those future cash flows? We do this through the Discount Rate.

The discount rate essentially brings future cash flows back to their present
value, reflecting the time value of money and the risk involved.

The specific discount rate used depends on which free cash flow you've
chosen:

 For FCFF (Free Cash Flow to Firm), the discount rate used is the
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC).

o Formula: WACC is the weighted average of the cost of equity


and the cost of debt, considering the tax shield on debt.

 WACC = (Cost of Equity * Weight of Equity) +


(Cost of Debt * Weight of Debt * (1 - Tax Rate))

 For FCFE (Free Cash Flow to Equity), the discount rate used is the
Cost of Equity (Ke).

Let's look at how we determine these costs:

Cost of Equity (Ke)


The most common method to calculate the Cost of Equity is the Capital
Asset Pricing Model (CAPM).

CAPM Formula: Cost of Equity (Ke) = Risk-Free Rate (Rf) + Beta


(β) * (Market Return (Rm) - Risk-Free Rate (Rf))

Let's break down each component of the CAPM:

 Risk-Free Rate (Rf): This is the return you could earn on a risk-free
investment, like a US government sovereign bond. The idea is, if you
invest in a company's equity, you should at least earn what you
would from a risk-free asset.

o Example: If a US government bond yields 6%, that's your


baseline.

 Market Risk Premium (Rm - Rf): This is the extra return investors
expect for investing in the overall stock market (e.g., the Indian
equity stock market) compared to a risk-free asset.

o Example: If you expect 3% premium for investing in the


broader Indian market.

 Beta (β): This is a measure of risk, specifically a company's


systematic risk (non-diversifiable risk) relative to the overall
market. It tells you how much a stock's returns tend to move in
relation to the market's returns.

o Example: If a company has a Beta of 1.25, it means that for


every 1% move in the market, the company's stock is
expected to move 1.25% in the same direction. The instructor
emphasises Beta as a risk measure: for a company selling a
discretionary item (like flavoured water), its Beta might be
high because consumption can be deferred, making it riskier
than a non-discretionary item like plain bottled water.

o For large companies like Reliance Industries, which have


millions of shareholders, you can't ask everyone for their
expected return. So, we rely on the perception of Marginal
Investors. These are institutional investors (like Foreign
Institutional Investors - FIIs) who have enough shares to
influence the market and actively trade their shares. They are
highly diversified and only require a reward for systematic
risk, not diversifiable risk.

Cost of Debt (Kd)


The Cost of Debt is the interest rate a company pays on its borrowings.
Unlike the cost of equity, which is often an implied expectation, the cost of
debt might seem straightforward (e.g., 9% on a bond).

However, it's crucial that your Cost of Debt is forward-looking, reflecting


the current market interest rates, not just historical rates at which old
debt was issued. If market rates for similar debt have gone up (e.g., from
7% in 2019 to 11% today), you must use the current market rate for your
valuation, even if your existing debt carries a lower historical rate.

Key Advice for Your Learning Journey

 Build a Strong Foundation: Don't skip the basics of financial


modelling.

 Follow the Series in Order: Session 1, then Session 2, and so on.

 Practice, Practice, Practice: The instructor will provide data for 5


companies for you to build models. This hands-on practice is crucial.

 Focus on Skills, Not Certificates: While certificates have their


place, your primary goal should be to acquire the actual skill.

 Engage with the Community: Join "The Valuation School" on


Telegram for regular Zoom sessions and follow their page (and Parth
himself!) on LinkedIn for insightful content. This will enhance your
learning experience beyond just the videos.

This structured approach to understanding Cash, Growth, and Risk will


equip you to tackle any DCF valuation like a pro. Good luck, and happy
modelling!

Common questions

Powered by AI

Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) represents the cash flow available to all capital providers, both equity shareholders and debt holders, and is used to calculate the Enterprise Value of a business . In contrast, Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) is the cash flow available only to equity shareholders and is used to determine the Equity Value of a business . The choice between FCFF and FCFE affects the resulting valuation as FCFF requires using the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) as the discount rate, while FCFE uses the Cost of Equity (Ke). Thus, the use of FCFF can provide a comprehensive value of the entire business including both debt and equity, whereas FCFE provides a valuation strictly from the equity holder's perspective .

Understanding the Three Golden Pillars of DCF valuation – Cash, Growth, and Risk – enhances an analyst's ability to perform accurate valuations by ensuring a comprehensive approach to forecasting future business performance . These pillars guide analysts in evaluating how much cash a business generates, how much it might grow, and what risks are involved in future cash flows . Failing to consider any of these pillars can lead to inaccurate valuations as they are interdependent and collectively determine a business's potential for long-term value creation . An accurate balance of these components helps in reflecting true business worth, thereby supporting more informed investment decisions .

The Principle of Consistency in DCF valuation ensures accuracy by requiring that the cash flow measure (numerator) matches the appropriate discount rate (denominator). For instance, if valuing FCFF, one must use the WACC, while for FCFE, the Cost of Equity is used . Violating this principle leads to mismatches in the discount rate and cash flow, which can distort the present value of cash flows and result in erroneous valuations. This inconsistency undermines the reliability of financial models, potentially misleading investors .

Beta is a key component in the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) used to determine the Cost of Equity, as it measures a company's systematic risk relative to the overall market . It indicates how much the stock's returns move in response to market changes. A beta greater than 1 implies higher volatility compared to the market, reflecting greater risk, while a beta less than 1 indicates lower volatility and risk . Beta is significant in assessing investment risk because it helps quantify the degree of non-diversifiable risk, guiding investors on expected return relative to risk, and aiding in informed decision-making .

Terminal Value in DCF modelling helps address the challenge of infinite forecasting by estimating the value of all future cash flows beyond a defined explicit forecast period. This is often achieved through approaches like the Gordon Growth Model or Exit Multiples . Terminal Value is critical because it frequently accounts for a substantial portion of the total valuation, sometimes comprising 78% to 85% of a business's value, which makes changes in its calculation significantly impact the final valuation outcome . It allows analysts to capture a business's value into perpetuity without having to project cash flows indefinitely, thus effectively reflecting the long-term sustainable growth phase of a company's lifecycle .

In a DCF model, the explicit forecast period represents the short to medium term where a business is expected to grow at higher rates than the economy or industry average, often set for 3 to 10 years based on the business lifecycle . Following this is the terminal period, capturing the stable, long-term operation phase of a business where growth rates align more closely with economic averages . Distinguishing between them is essential as they require different growth assumptions and can significantly affect valuation. The explicit period captures anticipated period-specific strategies and growth opportunities, while the terminal period consolidates the business's indefinite operation potential through the Terminal Value . This segregation ensures accuracy and clarity in long-term financial models .

Using current market interest rates to determine the Cost of Debt, rather than historical rates, aligns the DCF valuation with present economic conditions and realistic costs of borrowing . This approach ensures that the Cost of Debt reflects what investors would face if financing were raised in the current market context, providing a more accurate reflection of ongoing financial obligations. Relying on historical rates could undervalue or overvalue debt costs, leading to misaligned cash flow discounting and potentially skewed valuations. Thus, aligning with current rates provides a clear, precise financial analysis consistent with real-world financial environments .

Engaging with a learning community like "The Valuation School" offers several advantages for someone studying DCF modelling. It provides opportunities for collaboration, networking, and real-time feedback on modelling techniques, thus enriching the learning experience . Community participation enables learners to stay updated with industry trends, share insights, and receive guidance from experienced professionals like Parth. It fosters an environment of continuous learning and support, which can significantly enhance comprehension and practical application of valuation concepts .

Using a forward-looking Cost of Debt is important in Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) because it reflects the current market interest rates rather than historical rates, ensuring that future projections align with present economic conditions . Miscalculations, such as relying on outdated interest rates, can lead to inaccurate discount rates and consequently distort the present value of future cash flows, impacting the overall valuation . An accurate Cost of Debt reflects the true cost of capital, which is critical for deriving precise valuations aligned with market realities .

Hands-on practice in learning DCF modelling is emphasized as it allows individuals to apply theoretical concepts in practical scenarios, facilitating deeper understanding and retention of the material . Building models for different companies enhances critical thinking and problem-solving skills, enabling learners to handle various contexts and complexities of valuation. This approach also ensures learners can navigate real-world financial modelling challenges, reinforcing comprehension and solidifying skill development, which are essential for effective analysis .

You might also like