Trading Guide
Trading Guide
First and foremost, the first step is to choose a brokerage for you to trade
on.
TD AMERITRADE
Pros
Commission-free
Free research
High-quality platform
No account minimum
Cons
TASTYWORKS
Pros
Customizable platform with real-time quotes
Cons
Robinhood
Pros
No account minimum.
Simple interface.
Cryptocurrency trading.
Cons
No retirement accounts.
E*Trade
Pros
Easy-to-use tools.
Cons
If you want to use more advanced brokerages, you can use Interactive
Brokers.
Chapter I
earnings. Put it this way, imagine the company as a big giant pie. By buying
a share, you own a tiny piece of the pie. The more shares you buy, the
bigger pieces of that pie you own.
Example: FACEBOOK stocks are worth $200. You decide to buy one
share. The stock then increases from $200 to $210. You just made $10. If
you had bought 2 shares($400 in total), you would’ve made $20. Simple,
right? The same Principle applies to a stock that’s worth .50 cents or $10.
Stocks are also known as “Equity” or “Equities”. Stocks are given to or
bought by you (shareholders) in order to raise money for the business/
company to grow or for them to take on new projects.
How many centers / factories do they have and where are they
located?b
By knowing the client base we can get a sense of the sales cycle and
efforts required to sell the company’s products.
For example, Apple, will have no problem crushing their competition
because the majority of the modern world has iPhones.
To give you an idea of who they are competing with and who is dominating
that industry.
Sectors
The economy and stock market are basically organized into two tiers. The
highest tier, a sector, is a broad grouping of companies that have similar
economic characteristics. There are currently 11 major sectors that most
investors use when breaking down the corporations and other issuers of
securities such as stocks and bonds.
Utilities
The utilities sector consists of electric, gas and water companies as well
as integrated providers. In general, the sector generates consistent
recurring income by charging consumers and businesses that provide
higher-than-average dividend yields.
Consumer Discretionary
The consumer discretionary sector consists of retailers, media
companies, consumer service providers, apparel companies and consumer
durables. In general, these companies benefit from an improving economy
when consumer spending accelerates.
Consumer Staples
Energy
The energy sector consists of oil and gas exploration and production
companies, as well as integrated power firms, refineries and other
operations. In general, these companies generate revenue that’s tied to the
price of crude oil, natural gas and other commodities.
$WMB $DVN $HES
Healthcare
Industrials
Telecom
Real Estate
Well companies sell stock shares to the public to raise their money, which
is then used to fund their operations and expand their business, like I
mentioned above. So basically, a dividend is a “reward” given to
shareholders(YOU) for owning shares in the corporation.
Not all companies give out dividends. If you want to receive them, you have
to find the companies that pays them out to you, and buy their shares. Lots
of investors like these kinds of stocks because they can produce a valid
flow of income, and they have potential for compound return down the
road, or “rate of return”.
Example: XX (XX) is a company that pays dividends and let’s say it trades
at $44 per share. The company pays a dividend of $1.50 PER SHARE
annually, broken up into quarterly installments of $0.30. If you own XX
stock(1 share), you can expect to receive a cash payment of $0.30 every 3
months, for each share that you own.
If you own 100 shares , you get $30 from dividends every 3 months.
Traders jump in and out of stocks within minutes, days, even weeks.
Traders mainly focus on a stock’s technical factors(by performing
Technical Analysis) rather than a company’s long-term prospects. To
Traders, it’s all about where the price will be in a minute, hour, week,
or maybe a few weeks and how they can profit from that price
increase, or decrease.
Investors have a long term outlook. They buy their shares and think in
terms of years. Since they are long term, they’ll hold their shares
through the market ups and downs because they know that it will go
up regardless over the months and years.
50 x 3000 = 150,000
Institutional Traders
Institutional Traders trade using accounts that their institution manages for
people.
Institutional traders have a very high advantage over us retail traders due
to the simple fact that they work for institutions, thus giving them better
tools, etc.
Institutional traders have very good risk management, and use different
strategies to hedge different positions.
Traders who work at hedge funds use investors money, and a lot of the
times, they get a percentage of the profits.
High frequency trading is the use of software and algorithms for the
purpose of faster execution in order to essentially out pace everybody else.
Basically, HFT involves trading in very high speed, and I mean split
seconds.
Due to this simple fact, Institutions and banks already have a huge upper
hand because of the psychological barrier that separates us two.
Our knowledge comes from Videos, Books, and things we’ve picked up on
our own.
There is a statistic about the failure rate of retail traders and it’s somewhere
around 80-90%.
But the root of this lies within our failure to follow trading plans, if we even
have one.
A lot of psychological aspects also come into play when finding out the true
reasons why a lot of traders fail. And we’ll get to that at the end of this
book.
Scalpers: Scalpers make several, dozens, maybe even more trades per
day. Scalers are trying to “scalp” a small percentage(profit) from each trade.
Basically taking profits on small price or percentage changes, soon after
the trade has been entered and has become profitable. In order to Scalp,
you have to have a well defined, and strict exit strategy. Scalping has to do
with jumping in and out as the market flows. You also should use a large
amount of capital to be able to capture decent profits.
Day Traders: Day Traders are traders who get into trades in hopes of
selling it the same day. Whether it takes them 10 minutes to a few hours,
the purpose of being a day trader is to sell your position the same day.
Technical Analysis
The open – When the markets open for trading, the first price at which a
trade executes is called the opening Price.
The high – This represents the highest price at which the market
participants were willing to transact for the given day.
The Low – This represents the lowest level at which the market
participants were willing to transact for the given day.
The close – The Close price is the most important price because it is the
final price at which the market closed for a particular period of time. The
close serves as an indicator for the intraday strength. If the close is higher
than the open, then it is considered a positive day else negative. Of course
we will deal with this in a greater detail as we progress through the module.
The closing price also shows the market sentiment and serves as a
reference point for the next day’s trading. For these reasons, closing price
is more important than the Open, High or Low prices.
The open, high, low, close prices are the main data points from the
technical analysis perspective. Each of these prices have to be plotted on
the chart and analyzed.
There are different ways to find stocks. You can familiarize yourself
with certain industries by finding a Niche through Sectors
(Biotech,Pharmaceuticals, Energy, Healthcare, Technology, etc). You
can use Screeners. Screeners allow you to see real time percentage
increase on different stocks during the market. You can research an
individual company you are interested in, and look at their track
record, look for future releases, look at their past earnings, or see if
they might have a good earnings report coming up. This is choosing
stocks from a Fundamental perspective.
Liquidity
A measure of how many buyers and sellers are present, and whether
transactions can take place easily. High levels of liquidity arise when
there is a significant level of trading activity and when there is both
high supply and demand for an asset, as it is easier to find a buyer or
seller. If there are only a few market participants, trading infrequently,
it is said to be an illiquid market or to have low liquidity.
Volatility
Chapter II
Options Trading
“Options are derivative securities. Securities with values that are reliant
upon or derived from underlying assets, or group of assets. They are
considered derivatives because the price is essentially linked to the price of
something else.”
An Option is a contract! It allows (the right, but not the obligation) you (the
investor) to buy or sell an underlying stock at a certain price within a certain
amount of time. You do not own these shares of stocks. An ownership is
when you buy the actual shares and hold it in hopes that it will eventually
go up in price where you will then see profit. An option contract allows you
the right to buy stock, but you aren’t required to.
The main goal here is to buy a contract and wait for it to go up in value, so
you can sell it.
A stock option is a contract between two parties in which the stock option
buyer (holder) purchases the right (but not the obligation) to buy/sell 100
shares of an underlying stock at a predetermined price from/to the option
seller (writer) within a fixed period of time.
The two types of stock options are puts and calls. CALL OPTIONS means
the buyer has the right to buy the stock while PUT OPTIONS give them the
rights to sell them.
Call Options mean you want the stock to go up, and vice versa for Put
Options.
When you are choosing these strikes, there are a few concepts to consider:
The probability of the option expiring completely worthless(where you lose
all premium), and whether the option is in the money (ITM), at the money
(ATM) or out of the money (OTM).
All Option strikes are made up of Intrinsic and Extrinsic value. Extrinsic is
TIME and VOLATILITY. AKA External Factors.
For options that are out of the money or at the money, the intrinsic value
is always zero. This is because a buyer would never exercise an option that
would result in a loss.
Stock trading and Options trading are different. I can explain stocks to a 5
year old, but i can’t explain Options to a 5 year old.
In options trading, the difference between "in the money" (ITM) and "out of
the money" (OTM) is a matter of the strike price's position relative to the
market value of the underlying stock, called its moneyness.
An ITM option is one with a strike price that has already been surpassed by
the current stock price. An OTM option is one that has a strike price that
the underlying security has yet to reach, meaning the option has no intrinsic
value.
An OTM call option will have a strike price that is higher than the market
price of the underlying asset. Alternatively, an OTM put option has a strike
price that is lower than the market price of the underlying asset.
Being out of the money doesn't mean a trader can't make a profit on that
option. Each option has a cost, called the PREMIUM. A trader could have
bought a far out of the money option, but now that option is moving closer
to being IN THE MONEY(ITM). That option could end up being worth more
than the trader paid for the option, even though it is currently out of the
money. At expiration, though, an option is worthless if it is OTM. Therefore,
if an option is OTM, the trader will need to sell it prior to expiration in order
to recoup any extrinsic value that is possibly remaining.
A trader wants to buy a call option on TCX stock. They choose a call option
with a $20 strike price. The option expires in five months and costs $0.50.
This gives them the right to buy 100 shares of the stock before the option
expires. The total cost of the option is $50 (100 shares times $0.50), The
stock is currently trading at $18.50.
For example, the trader just paid $0.50 for the potential that the stock will
appreciate above $20 within the next five months. Prior to expiration, that
option will still have some extrinsic value, which is reflected in the premium
or cost of the option. The price of the underlying may never reach $20, but
the premium of the option may increase to $0.75 or $1 if it gets close.
Therefore, the trader could still reap a profit on the OTM option itself by
selling it at a higher premium than they paid for it.
Time Value
The time value of an option is an additional amount an investor is willing to
pay over the current intrinsic value. Investors are willing to pay this
because an option could increase in value before its expiration date. This
means that if an option is months away from its expiration date, we can
expect a higher time value on it because there is more opportunity for the
option to increase or decrease in value over the next few months. If an
option is expiring today, we can expect its time value to be very little or
nothing because there is little or no opportunity for the option to increase or
decrease in value
Extrinsic helps you figure out what can affect the Option
Open Interest
Open Interest is a number that shows the amount of currently open
positions of options contracts. The higher the open interest of a contract,
the more open positions there are for it. Quite simply, it represents the
number of options contracts in existence.
Options contracts that have a high open interest tend to also have high
liquidity, but as mentioned above, there are other factors to consider too.
Those other factors are the trading volume of an option and its bid ask
spread. High trading volume of an option generally indicates high liquidity.
Only by looking at all the relevant criteria is it possible to get a reasonably
accurate idea of how to determine how liquid an options contract is.
Delta value isn't fixed, and it changes based on market conditions. It will
increase as an option gets deeper into the money and decrease as it gets
further out of the money.
The extrinsic value of an options contract will diminish over time as the
expiration date of that contract approaches, due to the effects of time
decay, and Theta is basically an estimated measurement of the rate at
which this happens.
The theta value of an option essentially shows the dollar amount at which
the price of an option will fall each day, assuming all other factors remain
equal.
An option with a theta value of -.01, for example, would lose $.01 from its
price each day due to time decay.
The vega value of an option shows how much, in theory, the price will
change for every percentage point the implied volatility of the underlying
security increases by.
The gamma value of an option indicates how much the delta value of that
option will increase for every $1 price increase in the underlying security or
for every $1 price decrease in the underlying security.
For example, imagine you have a call with a delta of .60. If the price of the
underlying security rises by $1, then the price of the call would therefore
rise by $.60. If the gamma value was .10, then the delta would increase to
.70.
The primary use of DELTA is to give you an idea of how much money you
will make if the underlying stock moves as you expect it to (or how much
you will lose if the underlying stock moves in the opposite direction). This
can then help you determine which options give you the best value for
money in terms of taking advantage of what you expect to happen.
Given that vega can be very useful in forecasting how the price of an option
is likely to move, it really is worth putting in some time to understanding just
what volatility and implied volatility is all about. Once you have a clear idea
of how the price of options is affected by implied volatility, and changes in
implied volatility, you will be much better positioned to gauge the risks
involved in any possible trades you identify, and may even find
opportunities based on the volatility of particular underlying securities.
Generally speaking, high gamma means high theta. A high gamma means
that you can make potentially higher exponential profits if the underlying
security moves significantly in the right direction.
A bid-ask spread is the amount by which the ask price exceeds the bid
price for an asset in the market. The bid-ask spread is essentially the
difference between the highest price that a buyer is willing to pay for an
asset and the lowest price that a seller is willing to accept.
The option chain shows you all of the available options contracts/premiym
(both Calls and Puts) for the stock.
This chain shows you all of the strike prices and expiration dates for the
stock option. The option chain gives you alot of different information
pertaining to what ties in to the option (Greeks) and how the value of the
contract can change under different market conditions.
Call Options: A Call Option is a contract between a buyer and a seller. It
gives the buyer the right (or option) to buy the stock at the price (strike
price) within a creation period of time (expiration date).
Ex: Say you’re bullish AAPL or expect its price to increase over the coming
days, weeks, etc. You could buy a Call Option to profit from upward
movement in Apple’s stock price.
The option chain is broken down into two columns. You’ll see there are
different metrics in the column, providing information about the option. Calls
are on the left, and Puts are on the right.
For new Options traders, expiration dates are the dates when the contract
expires.
When you’re deciding to buy or sell an option contract, a key note is how
much time you want to give yourself for the trade to ‘play out’. Which is its
time value.
You choose depending on how much you want to pay, and how long you
want to hold for. If you sell options, time decay is on your side. You do not
really want to hold your contract until expiration because of time decay.
When people hold their contracts, it’s usually because they’re already in a
loss or they do not understand options.
White and Yellow contracts
White : Monthly
Yellow: Weekly
Monthly Contracts
A mistake of new traders is confusing price and value when buying options.
Although the OTM option is much cheaper, there is no intrinsic value.
Where with an ITM option, you’re paying more upfront but the options
already have intrinsic value and gain more value with a movement in price
in the direction you wanted it to.
Let's develop this into an example. You have a long call on XXX (sym:
XXX) with a premium of $5.50, Vega of 0.20, and implied volatility of 18%.
If the implied volatility increases to 21% your long call is now worth $6.10.
When volatility begins to drop, it also drops our option premium. If our
implied volatility goes from 21% down to 16%, our option will be worth
$5.10.
As volatility goes up, option price goes up, as volatility goes down, option
price goes down.
Chapter III
These factors create repeatable patterns which we can recognise and profit
from.
Time Cycles
Trendlines
Candlesticks Formations
Moving Averages
Chart patterns
Other Indicators
Intra-day traders, traders who open and close trading positions within a
single trading day, favor analyzing price movement on shorter time frame
charts, such as the 5-minute or 15-minute charts.
Long-term traders who hold market positions overnight and for long periods
of time are more inclined to analyze markets using hourly, 4-hour, daily, or
even weekly charts.
Moving Averages
Moving averages represent the average of the last #-period closing prices.
SMAs are the simplest form of moving averages, as they take the
arithmetic average of the last #-period closing prices.
This means that each closing price has an equal weight in the calculation of
an SMA.
SMA’s generally also move slower than the EMA, because the EMA reacts
to the price faster. Since moving averages are lagging indicators, i would
rather have the EMA than the SMA.
EMA’s, on the other hand, use the exponential average of the last n-period
closing prices, which makes them quicker react to new closing prices than
their SMA peers. If you don’t know which type of moving averages to use, I
would recommend you to start with EMAs and see how they align with your
trading strategy.
Moving averages are also often used as dynamic support and resistance
lines. Traders often use longer-term MAs, such as the 200-day or 100-day
MA, to find areas where the price could retrace and continue in the
direction of the underlying trend.
I personally use the 9 EMA / and the 21 EMA.
If the moving averages cross over one another, it could signal that the
trend is about to change soon, thereby
One thing to take note of with a crossover system is that while they work
beautifully in a volatile and/or trending environment, they don’t work so well
when price is ranging because they tend to bounce off of the support /
resistance.
You will get hit with tons of crossover signals and you could find yourself
getting
This is why you must use different indicators to help you have better
conviction.
For every trading strategy, you must find the right stocks to trade, along
with the right entry/exit points and risk management rules. Bad risk
management can make a potentially profitable strategy unprofitable.
When trading Options, we usually stick to the most liquid / most volume
stocks, and these names are usually the biggest names in the market.
Debit Spreads
Ex:
This trade creates a net debit of $0.30($30), thats why its called “debit:”
Max profit is limited, Maximum loss is defined. Risk level is: Low.
You are hoping to profit from the lower strike price. The call with the higher
strike price helps you mitigate losses. Another difference between single
options positions and debit/credit spreads are the changes in volatility.
Call/Put debit spreads have the same number of short contracts as it does
long contracts, therefore changes in volatility is nearly unimportant. Where
as, a regular call/put position, if the volatility crushes that normal call/put
position without any price movement, the option itself would lose value.
Call and Put Debit spreads are Bullish/Bearish with a defined risk. Time
decay works against this strategy. Money is made if the stock appreciates.
Call and Put debit spreads are generally a Hedged version of buying calls
and puts.
Put Debit Spread:
You are hoping to profit from the higher strike price. The put with the lower
strike price helps you mitigate losses.
Technical Analysis
Dow Theory has been called the grandfather of stock picking theories.
With over a hundred years behind it, it is the oldest major idea for selecting
winning stocks. This also makes it the most enduring and long lasting idea
in the modern financial markets.
This first critical idea states that all relevant current, past, and also future
information on the markets is already known by them and demonstrated in
the indexes and individual stock prices.
This covers all influencing factors from interest rates and inflation,
investors’ emotions, and even imminent to be released earnings
announcements. It tells you that only information which cannot be known is
not covered by the prices, yet even event risks are factored into the prices.
Changing events, information, and risks cause adjustments in the market
prices.
Markets usually move in an overall direction but usually never in a one way
line. These trends are comprised
The first Accumulation Phase begins the upward price movement. At this
time the knowledgeable and
Major changes from bull markets to bear markets or the other way around
only signal when the two main
ORIGINAL indexes the Dow Industrial and Dow Transports agree with each
other. While one is in a downward trend and the other is beginning a
primary uptrend, you should be careful in believing new overall trends have
started.
This first critical idea states that all relevant current, past, and also future
information on the markets is already known by them and demonstrated in
the indexes and individual stock prices. This covers all influencing factors
from interest rates and inflation, investors’ emotions, and even imminent to
be released earnings announcements. It tells you that only information
which cannot be known is not covered by the prices, yet even event risks
are factored into the prices. Changing events, information, and risks cause
adjustments in the market prices.
Markets usually move in an overall direction but seldom in a one way line.
These trends are comprised
Dow Theory
Dow Theory
Mass Participation Phase is the point where the negative sentiment that
surrounded the markets in the accumulation phase has been overcome
with improving business conditions. The longer the better news comes out,
the more investors pile back into markets causing prices to go higher. This
is the phase which lasts the longest and provides the biggest movements in
price.
Dow Theory
Dow Theory
The final period is appropriately known as The Excess Phase. By this time,
markets have notched significant gains as more and more people have
entered the markets and the price move begins to get tired. Most all of the
investors are in, but the smart money investors are already beginning to
sell out to those just coming into the markets. “Alan Greenspan” has called
this the EXTREME ENTHUSIASM / EUPHORIA phase of the stock market.
Major changes from bull markets to bear markets or the other way around
only signal when the two main
ORIGINAL indexes the Dow Industrial and Dow Transports agree with each
other. While one is in a downward trend and the other is beginning a
primary uptrend, you should be careful in believing new overall trends have
started.
Dow Theory
“The DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE is the second oldest U.S.
market index after the DOW JONES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE,
which contains 20 transport stocks such as railroad and trucking
companies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was designed to serve as a
proxy for the broader U.S. economy.”
Some well-known example is the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks
the S&P 500 index.
The volume is the amount of shares that have traded. This is the secondary
measure that confirms a
new trend is beginning as demonstrated by the movements in price.
This simply means that if price movement is going in the trend’s direction,
volume will be greater. Conversely if price is moving against the trend,
volume should drop.
You should only buy into the idea that the trend has changed if the
evidence is clear enough to make a safe assumption. Otherwise you end
up trading contrary to the trend, which is generally a terrible idea.
Trends help you to have a clear definition in your mind so you can easily
interpret when a trend is occurring.
Uptrend
An uptrend can be described as a sequence of higher lows in conjunction
with higher highs. When plotted on a chart, it will look like the candles are
going up.
Downtrend
With a downtrend, the easiest way to trade is if you wait for the trendline to
be hit and the price bar to bounce downwards off it, continuing the trend.
A break of the trendline, particularly with rising volume, may signify the end
of that trend.
If we draw a parallel line at the same angle of the uptrend or
downtrend, we will have created a channel.
When prices hit the UPPER trend line, this may be used as a selling
area.
Flags and Pennants are short-term continuation patterns that mark a small
consolidation before the previous move resumes. These patterns are usually
preceded by a sharp advance or decline with heavy volume, and mark a
midpoint of the move.
The sharp advance (or decline) that forms the flagpole should break a trend
line or resistance/support level. A line extending up from this break to the
high of the flag/pennant forms the flagpole.
Flag: A flag is a small rectangle pattern that slopes itself against the previous
trend. If the previous move was up, then the flag would slope down. If the
move was down, then the flag would slope up. The price action just needs to be
contained within two parallel trend lines.
Point A is at the level of the top of the flag. As such it is the most
conservative entry point, because it is where the stock is making new
highs. You must make sure that volume is increasing as the new high is
made. Increasing volume means there is conviction behind the move,
which makes it more likely to be sustainable.
Point B is where the stock breaks out of the flag itself. This is more
aggressive than Point A, and again requires increasing trading volume to
demonstrate conviction in the move.
If the entry is activated then we need a stop loss. Point C is the level
where, if we're already in the trade, we'd exit with a small loss.
This is your basic trading plan for a Bull Flag, within the context of an
upward trend.
Point A is at the level of the bottom of the flag. This is a conservative entry
point because it is where the stock is making new lows. Make sure that
volume is increasing as the new low is made. Increasing volume means
there is a lot of conviction behind the move, basically a lot of people
participating which makes it more likely to hold.
Point B is where the stock breaks out of the flag itself. This is definitely
more aggressive than Point A, and again requires an increase in volume to
show decent conviction in the move.
If the entry is hit then we need a stop loss. Point C is the level where, if
we're already in the trade, we'd exit with a small loss.
This is your basic trading plan for a Bear Flag, within the context of a
downward trend.
As you can see, the price came from a downtrend before consolidating and
REACHING higher highs and even higher lows.
Just like the rising wedge, the falling wedge can either be a reversal or
continuation signal.
Hammer
Small Real Body
-Followed by strong buying pressure to end the day. The close can be
above or below the open, but the close should be near the open for the
body to be small.
Hanging Man
-The stock has been in an
Uptrend
-Since the Hanging Man hints at a price drop, the signal should be
confirmed by a price drop the next day.
Doji
Doji candlesticks form when a stocks opening price and closing price are
basically equal. The DOJI tells us that during the market, the price moved
higher and lower and neither the bulls or the bears were esteemed. Stock
went up, sellers stepped in, and the buyers stepped back in. Indecision.
When this candle is combined with other trends and candles, its a very
important reversal candle.
Shooting Star
The shooting star iis a bearish candle and it usually forms after an
uptrend. The price has basically advanced for multiple candles, days, and it
tries to continue this uptrend. The price action of this candle is as follows:
Opens, trades higher, gets rejected by the sellers, who then take over,
pushing the price back down (creating the long upper wick) then closes the
price below or near the opening price. This is a warning sign for a reversal.
Spinning Top
A normal spinning top conveys indecision as both bulls and bears were not
able to influence the markets. However when you see the spinning top with
respect to the trend in the chart it gives out a really powerful message
based on which you can position your stance in the markets.
The bullish harami forms at the bottom after a downtrend. The large
candlestick is then followed by a smaller candlestick with the body in the
large’s candle vertical range. This pattern is a sign of a reversal to the
upside.
Bullish Engulfing
The bullish engulfing pattern is a pattern that forms when a GREEN
CANDLESTICK fully engulfes a red candlestick signaling BUYERS
overcoming the sellers.
Bearish Engulfing
The bearish engulfing pattern is the OPPOSITE of the BULLISH
ENGULFING pattern. This pattern forms after an advance in trend and
signals a reversal. The RED CANDLE must fully engulf the smaller green
candle in order for this to be a bearish engulfing pattern. This is a signal
to go SHORT.
The OPPOSITE goes for the FALLING THREE METHOD. Bearish pattern
used to predict the continuation of a downtrend. The 3 GREEN days never
go above the RED CANDLE on the left.
An observation of how spinning tops work during a trend is the fact that
there is an uptrend in the market, which means the bulls have been in
control over the last few trading sessions / candles. However with the
spinning top the situation is a bit tricky:
Resistance is something which stops the price from rising further. The
resistance level is a price point on the chart where traders expect maximum
supply (in terms of selling) for the stock/index. The resistance level is
always above the current market price.
The likely hood of the price rising up to the resistance level, consolidating,
absorbing all the supply, and then declining is high.
The resistance is one of the critical technical analysis tool which market
participants look at in a rising market. The resistance often acts as a trigger
to sell. Or a trigger to buy once price is above.
Having learned about resistance, understanding the support level should
be quite simple and intuitive. As the name suggests, the support is
something that prevents the price from falling further. The support level is a
price point on the chart where the trader expects maximum demand (in
terms of buying) coming into the stock/index. Whenever the price falls to
the support line, it is likely to bounce back. The support level is always
below the current market price.
There is a maximum likely hood that the price could fall till the support,
consolidate, absorb all the demand, and then start to move upwards. The
support is one of the critical technical level market participants look for in a
falling market. The support often acts as a trigger to buy. Or a further tank,
if price breaks support.
Support is a price point below the current market price that indicate buying
interest.
Resistance is a price point above the current market price that indicate
selling interest.
To identify S&R, place a horizontal line in such a way that it connects at
least 3 price action zones, well spaced in time. The more number of price
action zones (well spaced in time) the horizontal line connects, the stronger
is S&R.
S&R can be used to identify targets for the trade. For a long trade, look for
the immediate resistance level as target. For a short trade, look for the
immediate support level as target.
Volume
The end of day volumes indicates the cumulative volume across trades
executed throughout the day.
High volumes indicates the presence of smart money.
When you initiate a trade to either go long or short always make sure if
volumes confirm.
Time Cycles
Trendlines
Candlesticks Formations
Moving Averages
Chart patterns
Other Indicators
However, that same price action that you see on the 4h, daily or weekly
chart may not be particularly significant for long-term trading purposes.
With all of this being said, make sure to look at the correct time frames
when you are planning to Day trade, Swing or Scalp.
Use Multi Frame analysis to help you with your conviction on trades.
Trading Range
According to research, The concept of range is a “natural extension to the
double and triple formation”. In a range, the stock will go up to the
resistance level and the support level multiple times for a certainperiod of
time. When this happens, it can create what’s called a sideways market.
So, when both the buyers and sellers are not confident or when one isn’t
stronger than the other, the price would typically move in a range. This is
why it can even be annoying to trade in these market conditions.
However , by identifying the range , it can help you find multiple
opportunities to trade the breakouts or the bounce. There is a lot of
opportunities for reversal trades as well as breakout trades.
Stocks break out of the range after being in the range for a long time.
Before we explore this, it is important to understand WHY stocks trade in
the range in the first place.
When there are no fundamental triggers that can move the stock –
Accoridng tonresearch, These triggers are usually “quarterly/ annual result
announcement, new products launches, change in ownership, buyouts,
mergers, acquisitions etc. This can be the leading catalyst for a potential
breakout.
The range under these circumstances could happen for a while unless
something triggers a breakout.
The breakout can indicate the start of a brand new [Link] amount it
goes up or down depends on the severity of the catalyst. Regardless,
ranges give you tons of trading opportunities if you look at it the right way.
A trader will take a long position when the stock price breaks the
RESISTANCE and will go short after the stock price breaks the SUPPORT
level.
A false breakout happens when the trigger is NOT STRONG enough to pull
the stock in a particular [Link] to research, a false breakout
can happen when a ‘not so trigger friendly event’ occurs and impatient
retail traders react to it. Watch out for low volume during breakouts,
because low volume usually means there is no smart money. After false
breakouts, the stock will usually fall back into its range.
HIGH VOLUME
FAST MOVEMENT
When you are Day Trading, you are essentially buying and selling the
same day.
For example,
You are looking at stock XXX because there was great news the
previous day.
You should never have a bullish BIAS, just because of the news.
The price will always usually react to sentiment, not news. Although
news can create sentiment, it may not be the case for some
occasions.
Back to the stock, let’s say stock XXX falls at market open, and
continues to go down, and passing the support line.
Since the prices can’t be PERFECT all the time, this creates “zones”.
If the past resistance is .50 cents away from the new resistance, that
.50 cent difference turns into a zone.
This means that whenever the price retraces to this ZONE, the stock
may bounce.
You can see that the SUPPORT & RESISTANCE from the left, retests
itself on the right.
This means that once buyers & sellers establish their levels, these
levels will continue to serve as areas where the buyers/ sellers will
then buy or sell back at that same level.
This is why you’ll have resistance & support levels from the past retest
again in the future.
This is why it’s important to identify these levels because once you’re
able to find the most established levels, you can GAUGE buying &
selling strength just from the amount of times these levels retest over
the time frame.
Going back to the example….
You see how far apart the “Hard Resistance” & “Hard Support” is from
each other?
Now.. you can see that it made a HUGE move to the upside but failed
to continue and instead started to consolidate HEAVILY, thus
triggering the squeeze indicator to indicate a consolidation.
When you see this consolidation, especially after a big move, the first
thing you want to look for are the candles.
In this case, after the big move the sellers stepped in and pushed the
price down to the “HARD RESISTANCE” which turns into support.
The exponential moving average is a line on the price chart that uses
a mathematical formula to smooth out the price action.
This is usually a good signal. In this case, this is a signal for PUTS
because the 9EMA crossed below the 21EMA.
You have to find the levels where the buyers and sellers are known to
test the most.
There’s been times where a level has tested years prior, and it
continues to test in the present.
This is very similar to the last strategy, it’s just that in the case, you
don’t need an established support / resistance as an entry.
And our entry in this example would be the breakout of the range.
looks like.
“BUYING ZONES” are essentially just areas where the stock was
previously trading at, but is now trading higher than, because of an
INCREASE in DEMAND.
This means that in those few days, the buyers have been strong
enough to sustain the price ABOVE the support.
Once you have the “BUYING ZONES” established, you should color
the box GREEN.
This way everything is color coded and you can spot these areas
better, at least that’s what I do.
The green area let’s me know that these are “BUYING ZONES” so
that I won’t easily sell my position just because it’s going against me.
The BEST way to use the AHPMB (After Hour / Pre Market Breakout)
strategy is by FIRST looking at the previous days HIGH / and or
previous days CLOSE.
Then what you want to happen is you want the previous days HIGH or
previous days CLOSE to be a resistance level throughout after hours /
pre market.
This means that this high or close has been established as a HARD
resistance.
Because what usually happens is.. after hours / pre market you can
see very big moves because this is when Institutions will step in to
buy.
In this strategy.. you want to trade the OPEN, or CLOSE to the open,
and what you want to do is wait for the VOLUME to SPIKE, and the
9/21 EMA to cross.
You want to set your STOP LOSS a little BELOW the RESISTANCE
and you want to be patient because sometimes it’ll RETEST the
resistance turning it into a SUPPORT, and then finally launching up.
If you have it simply like this, you can’t really tell if there is more
BUYING STRENGTH or if there is more SELLING STRENGTH.
What about when I color code the zones?
The NEUTRAL zone can have either buyers/ sellers within the zone,
but as it gets closer to its RESISTANCE or SUPPORT, depending on
which color it comes close to, expect the buyers / sellers to come in
according to its respective color.
You can see it broke above the first RESISTANCE zone and sold off.
You can see the price broke above the zone again, and this time you
have it HOLDING.
On the left example the VOLUME kept repeating red and the right,
BUYING volume came in every hour.
You want to either enter at the PRE MARKET high level or the level
where it actually breaks out of its range.
You can also see that on DAY 6 it FILLED its GAP but then SOLD off.
This means that there are LOTS off sellers sitting at that GAP level.
You can see on DAY 10, it sold off again after retracing back.
When you see a level that has such strong sellers, you ALWAYS want
to establish this on your chart.
Color code!
This selling zone let’s me know NOT to TRADE CALLS whenever we
get back to this ZONE.
The only way I would trade CALLS on this is if it BREAKS OUT of the
zone and is ABOVE the ZONE.
Let’s move on to the 5 MINUTE chart.
In this example, you want to make sure to use the PRE MARKET /
OPEN RESISTANCE LEVEL.
You want to wait until the RESISTANCE level has been tested multiple
times… especially on the first 5-20 minutes.
You can use this SIMPLE BREAKOUT as a factor in why you should
enter, or if you look CLOSELY, you can actually see a Triangle formed.
You can actually combine these two,
When it slopes up, it means the buyers are holding this down.
Another Pattern Recognition strategy, this time using the 15 min chart.
In this case, this stock does not move much in a day, but that’s
besides the point.
In this case, you want to WAIT UNTIL a PATTERN FORMS and trade
the VOLUME breakout.
In this case you FIRST want to have the RED stochastics line cross,
THEN the EMA CROSSOVER.
When the red line goes above the BLUE line, this means that the
BUYING momentum is strong.
Same goes for the red line going below the BLUE LINE.
ALWAYS, ALWAYS make THESE RESISTANCE LINES.
To help trade breakouts like these, you can utilize the EMA CROSS /
STOCHASTIC CROSS / VOLUME.
Why?
When the momentum has been bearish and it crosses up, you get a
SHIFT in momentum.
In this case, the LONG BOTTOM WICK that formed on the green
candle at the resistance also indicates buying pressure coming in.
Here is another example of how you can utilize the Stochastic Cross +
the EMA Crossover.
In this example,
The first signal of a false breakout are the PRICE action of the candles
itself.
You can see as the price breaks out, the first BREAKOUT candle
shows a lot of selling pressure shown by the 2 LONG wicks it’s formed
on the top.
When you have resistance levels that are this close together it
becomes a ZONE.
Just like the very first example here.
You want to focus on the SQUEEZE only when it’s happening ALONG
THE RESISTANCE LINE.
You want to then use the STOCHASTICS to guide you on the shift in
momentum.
You want to make sure this shift in momentum happens RIGHT
BEFORE the market opens.
It’s not for you to necessarily copy the strategies I have listed for you,
In this example you can see that the previous day was bearish.
After hours / Pre market formed a Support and turned into resistance
all before market open.
The first candle we’re going to look at is the first 30min candle after
previous days close.
This green candle with a long top wick was a full green candle until
sellers came in and pushed the price down causing the long wick.
This indicates selling pressure.
Now, during pre market, as the candle (red candle with arrow) retested
the resistance (which was support)
You want to enter at the opening rejection of either of the EMAS (9/21)
or the break of the NEXT support line.
At the end of the day, what matters is your execution without
hesitation.
The price then formed a pre market high the next day
This pre market high will be used as an entry, and the previous day
high will be used as your PROFIT TARGET.
In this trade, you want to make sure the STOCHASTICS cross up
RIGHT AT THE RESISTANCE level.
In this example, if you got in at the breakout, the price would have
retraced back up SLIGHTLY, but notice how the SUPPORT held and
the sellers MAINTAINED control at the support level.
In this case, the BEAR FLAG that formed was a perfect indication of a
continued sell off because it could not break the resistance line AT
ALL!
ALWAYS USE SUPPLY & DEMAND to your ADVANTAGE.
Scalping
I personally, only refer to the 5 minute chart once 10-30 minutes of the
market has passed.
I use the 5 minute chart to figure out when i can possibly get into a quick
scalp after the initial market open run.
If you didn’t know this, the market usually runs in one direction until 7AM
(10AM EST) where it can potentially reverse / pull back.
Of course its not a fact because everything in the market is unpredictable.
Trump can say one word and make or break the market.
Any reports that has to do with a Trade deal, Jobs reports, Fed talks,
Unemployment rates, Trade deficits, CPIS, retail sales, etc can be
detrimental or beneficial to the market.
ALWAYS BE AWARE.
TESLA SCALP // (Duration: 1-4 minutes) (Day Trade potential:15-30
minutes)
These are only based on what happened that day. But keep in mind, these
types of movements happen often. There is a lot of scalping opportunities
in the market every day.
You can see here TESLA opened up the first candle, only to be rejected,
thus creating a range for the first 11 minutes.
The 7th candle you see here can be considered a *fake out* because it
looked as if buyers were starting to control that resistance level and push
price up.
This is why its almost always important to wait for a clear confirmation.
Now… PRICE formed a support level on $332.40. You can base this
support off of the first 2 candles that has formed, that tested this twice.
You can see the 13th candle actually closed below the support. Since TSLA
does not have another support until 330, this can be a pretty huge scalp
($2 move) to support.
After this, its going to be up to YOU when you want to take profits.
Me personally, i still have trouble taking profits sometimes but thats the
rule.
When you scalp, you’re going in somewhat heavy, and getting out after a
minimal price movement.
Do not be angry if you take profits after 1-3 minutes just because you see
that it kept going your direction.
What if you had held, and it reversed? And the fact that you went heavy,
the more you will lose.
Please spend the next 3-5 minutes to fully ANALYZE the above price action
and figure out why i made these marks on the chart.
This example could have been used for a DAY TRADE because there was
some what of a CLEAR downtrend after the first break of SUPPORT.
Day trades are best formulated when you look at the 5 minute charts and
not worry too much about 1 minute charts. That’s why its 2 different styles.
One is more laying back and watching it here and there, where as scalping
you would need to be a HAWK.
The top wick of that candle and the previous candle should already tell you
that the bears are in control.
With Amazon, expect a nice little run when it chooses a direction. It is such
a volatile & expensive stock that it has a huge daily range.
Your target should always be limited to only a few candles when scalping,
but when the stock is showing a CLEAR bearish direction, it does not hurt
to hold longer than usual as long as it doesn’t affect your scalping mentality
for your next trades.
The point of scalping is to get the most out of the minimal time you have
and to get out.
When you scalp and get too greedy, sometimes it will pull back for an X
amount of minutes to where your scalp is no longer a scalp but a normal
day trade.
Try not to turn scalps into normal day trades, or worse, swings.
The general rule of thumb in scalping is looking at VOLUME & Price Action
// combined with Time and Sales / Level 2 / stochastics, it may be an even
better “edge”.
But remember..
The top shows a very good reversal candle showing you an EXHAUSTION
candle.
HAMMER candle formed.
The top shows a very good reversal candle showing you an EXHAUSTION
candle.
This is where scalping will get very hard unless you become a HAWK and
is able to EXECUTE.
When the consolidation starts to prolong itself, you must create a range in
which its trading.
Sometimes Setups are very clear and it gives you more confidence to enter
because of CONFIRMATION.
When you scalp, you always want to take profits. You’re not here to ride a
$5-10 move.
You’re in here with SIZE. and you’re looking to maximize momentum, and
get out.
Most of the time, people who attempt to scalp get too greedy and turn their
scalps into a day trade, and once the trend reverses they get shook out
because they have so much size that they don’t want to risk losing it.
GOOGL had this MINI consolidation.
When you see this very tight consolidation, you want to get your Sniper
ready.
NEVER HESITATE.
EXECUTE.
Here, it shows a decent scalpable trade in the first 5-6 minutes, but the way
down shows you an even better setup.
Watch for the EXHAUSTION candles and the break of SUPPORT.
When you get shaken out of a trade, ALWAYS cut your loss immediately
and wait for the next PROBABLE opportunity.
Be patient.
A lot of people have the misconception of having to trade every single day.
Thats not right.
Nothing is 100%
What matters is whether you are able to quickly cut your losses, and move
on to the next one.
Notice the first FALSE Breakout here.
You have to cut your loss here. Wait for the next opportunity.
No hesitation.
This is when you say, Okay, there may be another opportunity here.
When the price is currently on the way up to resistance, and its close
enough to it to where you can still scalp a move, then why not do it?
You want to take profits for this last entry at the rejection of resistance.
Check out this price action on Google.
Had strong selling volume but the buyers were able to hold that SUPPORT.
For the next minute or two, pick the contracts you want, and are
comfortable buying.
Watch the candle on top of the red line and the 1 below the red line. These
candles are momentum candles.
Here is an example of a DAY TRADE SETUP with a CLEAR BREAK of
RESISTANCE, ASWELL as a BREAK of the TRIANGLE.
But first obviously, you want to enter at this break of resistance, you may
sell at the top of the triangle, or trim down, but once this triangle has
formed, it is showing a very high probility trade, regardless the direction.
So what you want to do is, as its getting closer to the breakout point of the
triangle, you want to switch over to the 1 minute chart and wait for the 1
minute candle to close above the triangle line.
This allows you to catch the upwards momentum, if it goes your way.
And sometimes the price goes up just enough to FILL, only to reverse and
bounce.
This Gap Fill is a good scalp at the first minutes of open, if you can catch it.
The Previous day close should always be the level where you look for a
breakout, or a reversal.
Notice the doji / Bear exhaustion candle in the middle indicating a potential
run up.
A couple of minutes later, you see a huge green candle, indicating that the
bulls have taken over and is pushing this price above resistance, which will
then turn to support.
As soon as it turned into support, the bears were no longer able push the
price down.
The first 2 minutes formed a NICE support where buyers are controlling the
area.
These wicks
The best entry here would be the 3rd minute candle where the buying
pressure massively increased at the support after a selloff attempt.
When you’re watching this as it goes you will see this support being
formed, every minute.
So you can see that this area of value, is where BULLS are holding the fort.
You can see also, the bears have been controlling the resistance area, and
the bears are doing
As the minutes go by, It makes sense for one side to become exhausted, or
for one side to increase in volume and push the price in their direction.
In this case, the Bulls won this battle and presented a clear breakout.
You can see that there is a resistance level about $2 away from the
breakout.
Now, here is where it gets important.
Sometimes, you have to understand the stock itself that you are trading.
Find out how much it can go in a day, by looking at how it has been doing
the past week, month, etc.
You’re going to get an idea of the range that this can trade.
So if BOEING has a range of $6-10 a day, you immediately start to look at
things differently.
If the stock is barely up $2-3, you immediately know that it can RUN more
than what its currently doing.
So do NOT hesitate and think that its already at its peak, if you dont know
its RANGE.
Alot of people are always like, “oh its already up $2, its too late”... next
thing you know.. It moves up another $7.
This is one of the many common issues that beginner traders have.
Only until a FULL red candle has closed did the buyers step off and let the
BEARS take over.
The candles after that first red bar shows you how weak the buyers
became after the selloff.
If you did not decide to get in puts before this full tank, you would need to
wait for another confirmation of a possible leg down.
But remember, if you are scalping, the main goal is to take profits. You’re
not looking for a big move here.
Bulls are attempting to hold the price up and potentially push the price back
up the resistance.
Eventually it did.
After it broke the resistance, the resistance became support and is now
consolidating on TOP of support.
This is actually a pretty bullish consolidation because the price thats being
held is above the crucial support, so buyers are technically in control at this
point.
You can see the big bullish candle that created the momentum for AAPL to
go up for the next HOUR.
PATIENCE is key.
Especially if you want to find SOLID setups on the 5 minute for you day
traders.
Check out the rejection of resistance which caused a selloff at the next leg.
Tesla then traded in a range and the wait for confirmation was the
resistance that was once support.
Swings
Now, with BYND, our team have swung this up and down this past year.
In order to create GOOD Support and Resistance levels, you must use the
2-3 touch rule, UNLESS it is the TOP/HIGH or the LOW/BOTTOM.
Look how i started the S/R levels from the TOP and BOTTOM. Then what
you want to do is work your way down the middle of the chart.
3. Start off by identifying the Top / Bottom and work your way down the
middle to create S/R levels.
Work your way down the middle, and create the levels.
[Link], you want to go to the 1YEAR 1DAY chart, and do the same thing.
I will go over these patterns shortly, but you can already see the RANGES,
and BULL FLAGS.
The BLUE highlights are patterns we missed on the Daily, that we are able
to spot on the 4H.
8. Now on the hourly chart, you can see how CLEAR everything looks.
You can easily spot what MAY happen. You can trade using better
conviction, using Anticipation and analysis.
9. Ranges:
Ranges are very important because it shows you that the price is trading
within a
Range and it struggles to break either above or below. Once it gets
enough volume and
Push, range breakouts is one of the best setup to trade. Especially if you
can find where
Previous Support became Profit Target on this Range that broke to the
downside.
Check the price on the left. The breakdown of the 2nd RANGE was a
potential $55 MOVE.
10. Other than ranges, PATTERNS are very important aswell. If you can
spot these patterns,
You can use these patterns with the indicators you use to help you have
better conviction
& flags. Once they broke out, you can use previous S/R to have as
Profit Target.
You can see that these LEVELS tend to re test. We caught the DOWN
move, and the UP move on BYND.
11. In this next example, we’re going to look at how the Stochastics
Oscillator can help you determine where the stock may go. The Stochastic
Oscillator determines MOMENTUM.
Once you see that the RED line has crossed the PURPLE, it means that
the
Here’s another pattern on the same time frame, and it actually happened
before the PREVIOUS example. You can see in this example. The
stochastics crossed as the
Breakout happened…. Indicating a shift in momentum, in this case the
breakout of this
Pennant.
When you are looking at the 4h chart, you want to try to find a trendline that
has been tested more than 2 times.
When a trendline re tests itself more than 2 times on the weekly, daily, 4h, ,
it establishes itself as a crucial support line.
Once you see a pattern breakout, and if the breakout leads the price to go
below the 21 EMA,
On the 4 HOUR frame, you can assume that the price will be bearish for at
least 1-2 candles.
You can see the triangle pattern after the range, and it shows the price
going above the 21 EMA, indicating a potential uptrend after the breakout.
You can also see at the top there is another triangle breakout, and this time
it broke to the downside, but also broke below the 21 EMA, anc continued
to create a downtrend for at least 1-2+ candles. Since we are looking at the
4 HOUR chart, each candle represents 4 hours.
The next pattern that we were able to spot is the bear flag.
You can see the bear flag caused a prince rejection on the 21 EMA.
This is an indication of a potential downtrend continuation.
You can see that there was an established hammer and the price broke out
to the upside and continued the uptrend once it stabilized above the 21
EMA.
Also the stochastics on the bottom, for the first range, crossed and that
cross alone, since it happened ON SUPPORT should give you a heads up
on a SHIFT of momentum.
In the second range you can see that there was a hammer and the price
has established itself on the support.
On top of that, the price stayed above the 21 EMA and the stochastics (red
line) did not point down, so it did not indicate a shift in momentum.
The third range, there was another hammer, now why is this example
different?
The (red line) pointed straight down, indicating a SHIFT in momentum, from
BEARISH to BULLISH.
This is BABA.
You can see that at the breakout level, the price held above the 21 EMA.
The STOCHASTICS also crossed (red line crosses purple) above the
BLUE line indicating a STRONG bullish momentum.
Thus the price moved from 185 to 220.
You can see that the Stochastics crossed on the bottom as soon as the
price broke down the support.
In this example, we have the 9/21 EMA Cross + Bull Flag as Confluence.
The stochastics (red line) above the BLUE line indicating a STRONG
momentum.
When you have the stochastics cross and go above the top BLUE, it is an
indication of a very strong momentum!
Look at this EMA cross + Bull FLAG + Stochatics Cross,
Bull Flag
Stochastic Cross
Volume
AND the price is at a support level which has established itself as an area
of value.
You have a nice run up, into a bull flag / pennant, and the 9 EMA bounces
off the 21 while the stochastics cross up, indicating a breakout, then you fall
into a range and the stochastic crosses back up above the blue line
indicating a potential continuation in bullish momentum.
Look how much $$ you could have taken advantage of during this run.
You see in the middle, the stochastics starts to point down and cross down
indicating a shift in momentum to the downside.
Stochastic Cross
Patterns
Using the 1hour Time Frame to your advantage.
Especially when the EMA is looking to cross or if the price is treating the
EMA as support.
You can use the stochastics to help you determine whether the price will
bounce or break, because the stochastics help determine momentum.
Or if its below the blue line or above the blue line and its about to point up/
down,
These patterns, are patterns that i traded, and these are patterns that i
used to signal trades on TSLA in our group.
STAIR CASE SETUPS are only GOLD when you have a nice consolidation
period in the middle that FALLS INTO A RANGE.
KEEP AN EYE ON THESE PATTERNS
Do you see how VERY OFTEN you can trade these types of Patterns?
You can find these setups on low volatility stocks like LOW, EA,
Being able to spot these patterns is the #1 key in finding potential swings.
Whichever time frame you’re looking at, for example. If you’re looking at a
4h frame, and you’re expecting a 2-3 candle breakout, understand that
since you are looking at 4hr candles, it may take 1-3 days for a breakout.
Thus swinging it is a GOOD play.
When you are swinging, you want to find out what the ATR of the stock is.
Amazon can have a daily range of $40-80 and it goes even higher on some
days.
On the other hand, AMD has a daily range of maybe about $3-6.
Once you find and understand the concept of ATR’s and incorporate the
use of indicators, 4hour frame, or even 1 hr frames in that same equation,
you can develop a good swing strategy.
Remember that when you swing, you have TIME on your side.
Psychology
Playing a game of risk means that you cannot be afraid to risk your money.
If you are afraid to risk your money then trading is not for you.
Greed and Fear are the two biggest psychological factors that traders
struggle with.
This doesn’t mean that you don’t sell until your target hits. The whole idea
of this is to have a plan.
In addition, suffering from losses can also cause you to act irrationally.
I’ve suffered from heavy losses, and it has caused me to act irrationally.
I’ve chased my losses plenty of times, and sometimes it’s hard to practice
what you preach because you get so in the moment while you’re trading.
At the end of the day, the market does not give a s** about you or your
money. It will take, take and take, if you are not cautious about your
behavior.
Your personality type also has a lot to do with your trading style.
So make sure, if you’re a person who is very impatient, you stick to
scalping instead of day trading or swinging.
People will take one single trading loss and automatically think their system
is sham.
Instead of focusing on making big returns every trade, take your eyes off of
your P/L and focus on the chart.
At the end of the day, again, you are playing a game of risk.
And stick to it while maintaining the composure that you need, and develop
a good, solid risk management.
Hope you enjoyed this mini book, and I hope you can utilize this as a
reference for your trading.
-Kevin
When you are attempting to grow a long term portfolio you first
have to figure out what your objective is. What is your goal with
this portfolio?
Are you trying to make a safe portfolio that can provide you with
income through dividends?
Are you trying to make a portfolio that can potentially grow fast
but requires more risk?
IRA’s allow investors to save money for retirement (and they can
contribute up to X amount annually to this account),allocate the
funds into investments and grow it either tax free or tax deferred
(depending on whether you choose a traditional IRA or a ROTH
IRA).
The difference between the two is how they are each taxed.
If you choose a traditional IRA, you don’t get taxed on your profits
until you decide to pull your money out (which is usually when
you’re ready to retire)
If you choose a ROTH IRA, you do not get taxed when you decide
to pull out for retirement.
And this is one of those things that you have to figure out for
yourself.
For example, with me,
I try to look for and invest into stocks that i think may have a lot of
room for growth and what i try to do is PROFIT from that growth,.
8-10% annually.
With the approach that i’m currently taking, i like to allocate more
of my money into smaller companies who don’t have this type of
growth yet.
Now a good method that i have been doing recently is, moving all
of my profits from these growth moves, and using them to buy
dividend stocks.
Now when it comes to dividend stocks, you can choose from
stocks who have high dividend yields, stocks who have steady
dividend payouts, or stocks who have a nice dividend growth.
Dividends are when the company pays you every quarter for
investing with them.
A lot of investors fall into the trap of buying dividend stocks with
the highest yield.
For example, you might be more attracted to a stock that pays out
8% over 3%.
The key things to remember when searching for dividend stocks
is to look at its dividend growth, its stability, how the company is in
comparison to its competition, etc.
If you don’t know where to begin with dividends, you can take a
look at the “Dividend Aristocrats”.
3M (NYSE:MMM) Industrials 57
Colgate-Palmolive Consumer 57
(NYSE:CL) staples
If you look in the example above, the NASDAQ and NYSE are the
names of the stock market exchanges.
These are the letters you will input when you are searching for
stocks.
The stocks in the above example should help you get started in
your search for which dividend stock you want to eventually own.
But before you start to invest your money just remember to follow
some basic rules that is almost common sense.
-Have a Plan
-It’s okay to cut your loss on stocks. If you’re losing more than you
expected on a position and you want to reposition yourself, it’s
always okay to back out of it instead of buying more right then
and there. Some may argue otherwise, but readjusting my
portfolio during unexpected downturns has helped me.
The S&P 500 index is the weighted index of the United States top
500 companies in the stock market by market capitalization.
Market capitalization is essentially referred to as how much the
company is worth.
2. “If the public float is well below the shares outstanding, the
stock price has the potential to be volatile as there are fewer
shares trading at any given time; a larger public float can mean
less volatility”
3. “If the number of floating shares is very close to the shares
outstanding, it means there is little employee ownership in the
company”
Market Capitalization:
MSFT (Microsoft)
AAPL (Apple)
NFLX (Netflix)
-VZ (Verizon)
-PFE (Pfizer)
Mid Cap stocks can easily turn into a Large Cap stock.
Small Cap
Small Cap companies have a market capitalization of $300 Million
- $2 Billion.
Small Cap companies have a ton of room for growth, which can
be very attractive but since they are still very small, they can pose
a lot of risk to a portfolio.
ENPH (Enphase)
As you’ve noticed over the recent years, there have been a big
push for clean energy sources. Not only in the United States, but
in the whole world. Renewable energy is now one of the hottest
sectors. Keep in mind, that just because the industry started
booming, it doesnt mean that stocks like ENPH (who have had
massive growth in such a short amount of time) is simply piggy
backing off of the sentiment. ENPH is actually a very good
company. They were one of the first companies to successfully
create microinverters from a commercial standpoint. They are
very disciplined with their product costs,etc and they have
thousands of solar companies using their products.
Of course, you would have never known that ENPH would get this
high.
But i truly believe that if you invest money into companies you can
believe in, and it makes sense to you, you can reap great
benefits.
Cyclical stocks are stocks that perform well when businesses and
consumers are spending money.
Yes. When the economy is doing very well. You can expect these
companies to do well aswell.
What are some secular stocks that we can think of right now that
has been following a secular trend in the past 5 years?
But when you add both of them together, your secular trend
stocks can essentially offset the poor performance of your cyclical
stocks.
I think that the pandemic has hit Airlines / Hotels, and restaurants
the most.
Let’s take a look at this chart above.
Every single candle that you see in this chart will represent 1
week.
Therefore when you look at the overall chart, this represents a
span of 3 years.
At one point in 2019 (you can see the date on the bottom of the
chart), Boeing actually hit a high of $446.
After the pandemic hit (as well as a lot of bad news on Boeing),
the stock plummeted to $89. This means that this company lost a
lot of its value during the pandemic. And right now (if you see on
the right), they are still on the brink of recovery.
The word secular just means that the company’s earnings can still
remain constant regardless of the economic conditions.
Now when we look at it this way, lets look at some stocks that are
considered to be more defensive.
By having stocks like WMT, COST, TGT (Target), you can offset
your losses from cyclical stocks or maybe even some secular
trend stocks that you own that may suffer a small dip due to a
weakened economy because more often than not, these
defensive stocks will not go down as much (if at all) as everything
else in the portfolio.
EPS
What is EPS?
EPS stands for Earnings Per Share.
If a company has an EPS of $1, then the next year it goes to $4,
then it shows that the company is growing.
Companies with higher ratios can mean that they have higher
growth expectancy.
Keep in mind that alot of the fast growing companies will have the
higher P/E ratio. And investors are always going to be happy to
pay more for earnings if they can see that the company is
expected to do very well.
On the other hand, companies with lower P/E can also provide an
opportunity that investors may be getting into a company that has
a lot of room for growth.
But if the ratio of that company is significantly lower than other
companies within its industry, then that can also be a red flag.
-Consumer Discretionary
-Communication Services
-Consumer Staples
-Energy
-Financials
-Healthcare
-Industrials
-Information Technology
-Real Estate
-Utilities
-Materials
But here are the sectors that the stock market is essentially
divided into.
I like to have stocks from many if not all of these industries I listed
above.
One of the strategies that I’ve been following goes something like
this:
25-30% ETFs
20% DIVIDENDS
30-40% GROWTH
15-20% SPEC
Speculative stocks.
DKNG
PLUG
SPCE
FUBO
GRWG
Cannabis is an example.
EV is an example.
And there are some growth stocks AND even some dividend
paying stocks that can fall into these “emerging markets” category
as well.
For example, NVDA / AMD are both growth stocks that have large
market caps and they are really big when it comes to Artificial
Intelligence.
By disruptive, you can say that I like to look for industries and or
companies who are both disruptive and innovative.
Disruptive innovation can change the way people think and can
change the way people do things, in most cases, make people
lives easier.
Take Amazon,
Disruptive right?
Netflix,
Disruptive?
Here are some of the industries that can have a potential huge
room for growth:
-Cannabis
-ESports
-3D Printing
-E-Commerce
-Solar
-Biohacking
-Cybersecurity
-Artificial Intelligence
Of course the goal here is to outperform the market, but you don’t
want to overdo it by putting in too much and instead doing the
opposite.
There are a lot of people who put too much money into
speculative industries and regret doing so when that specific
industry goes through a major sell off because they refused to
diversify.
IWM is an ETF that tracks the Russel 2000 small cap index
And then you have what’s called sector ETF’s where it focuses on
certain sectors.
XLE - Energy
XLF - Financials
and so on.
My favorite ETFs are not the ones I have listed above but they
are:
DHS
DHS is an ETF that I like aswell because it holds the top dividend
paying stocks.
There are many ETF’s out there for investors to choose from and
it all depends on what you like and what your risk tolerance is.
For example someone might feel safer investing into QQQ than
ARKQ only because QQQ has stocks in there that are more
stable and established.
So if you were to write this down along with the allocation % you’ll
have something like this:
$10,000 Total
$3,000 = ETFs
What you can do is continuously deposit money into the long term
account month after month and this will compound.
For example, if you start with $10,000 and put $200 every month
in there, while being able to earn a 15% return annually, by 20
years time you will have contributed about $58,000 but you would
have made $351,000 in profits.
So this all depends on where you start and where you want to
take this.
What I will do is, I will enter the stock and once it grows a bit I sell
half (if not) all of it to take profits and use SOME (usually half) of
these profits to re invest it into either my ETFs or more dividend
growth stocks.
If I’m going to invest into a speculative stock, I do not hold these
forever because if I do that, then I’m opening myself up to either
*more risk or *losing my profits that I had previously earned.
But that’s not the whole point. The point is getting started.
[Link]
This is what the finviz website looks like.
If I search up the name “AAPL” on the top left corner in the search
bar, something like this will come up.
That box that you see with all the numbers tells you everything
you need to know about AAPL.
From the income that they make, to their EPS, their P/E, to their
float, their performance, etc.
This is good for investors because you don’t have to do the math
on these things.
I can also use this website to figure out which sector of the stock
market is out performing another.
This gives me an idea of which sectors are hot and which are not.
There are several ways to do this but i want to show you another
Total Revenues - Cost of Goods Sold - Selling, General and Administrative Costs
- Depreciation Expenses - Interest Expense - Taxes = Net Income
than the overall market. If the beta is less than 1, it means the
volatility.
to the stock due to the fact that they haven’t entirely filled their
(Example)
Stock A has to have a bigger volume bar then the previous 3-6
bars (Daily Chart) (Weekly Chart)
This price action from the beginning of the green trend line
shows you a period of consolidation.
You can see between July and December the stock traded in a
range. This period of time (especially when it ranges a few
months) is crucial because it can determine where the next leg up
is going.
The float is the amount of shares that are available for investors
to trade.
Formula:
Any profit margin around the 20% and above is good, and
anything around 5% or below is not so good.
Price / sales (P/S) is a ratio that compares the share price to the
revenue per share. This ratio is used to value shares. If the P/S
ratio is on the lower end, investors usually see this as a good
thing because it means that investors are essentially paying less
for each unit of sales.
Price / Book ratio measures the market price of the stock and can
be used as a sentiment factor when valuing a stock.
Let’s take a look at some indicators on charts that can help when
it comes to determining a direction the stock may go to.
The platform i will be using to show you these indicators is:
THINKORSWIM by TD AMERITRADE
For those reading that do not know how to add these indicators
on to your platform i will write down a step by step guide.
Once you type in the indicator and click it, you should see it
on the right side next to where it says “lower”.
The RSI uses a reading between 0 and 100. The RSI takes into
account extreme conditions of the market.
Now as you can see when you have a green candle, it means that
the price is going up, and when you have a red candle it means
the price is going down.
Look at the example from above, and notice where it says OPEN.
This area of the candle is where the candlestick started and
where it says CLOSE is where the candlestick ended. If you are
looking at a WEEKLY time frame, this means that one single
candlestick represents one week so if you have a big green
candle on a weekly time frame, this means that there was major
buying that week.
For Green candles, the LOW means that at first the candle went
DOWN and THEN it went up. So essentially, at FIRST, the green
candle was actually red before buyers came in and pushed the
price up turning it green. Then it reaches a high to where it gets
pushed down again but the candle remains GREEN as long as
the price is higher than where it opened.
For Red candles, the HIGH means at first the candle went UP and
THEN went UP. So essentially, at FIRST, the red candle was
actually green before sellers came in and pushed the price down
turning it red. Then it reaches a low where it got pushed back up
again but the candle remains RED as long as the price is lower
than where it opened.
Now let’s look at more examples of the RSI indicator, and we will
also look at this indicator across different time frames.
We will look at the RSI on a weekly time frame, the daily time
frame, the 4 hour time frame, and the 1 hour time frame.
Here is an example. As you can see, the RSI was above the
70 line. Once its above the 70 mark, the line will turn red
showcasing that the price is at extremes.
You can see that even though the RSI is already hitting the
extremes, the price still kept going up. If you had taken a trade
going the opposite direction after seeing these overbought levels,
you would instantly lose money because even though the stock
stays overbought, it never went down for a while.
And as you can see, even if you were to wait until the price goes
back down (because it goes down eventually) you would still not
be profitable because as soon as the price went back down it
regained buyers.
You can see where i highlighted the RSI was again at its
extremes.
Amazon never pulled back and all it did was continue to go up.
Now, does this mean that this indicator doesn’t work at all?
No. It just means that you shouldn’t make trades simply using one
indicator, because all indicators are LAGGING indicators.
As you can see, if you had used the RSI here to figure out
overbought and oversold levels, it would have worked.
Why?
Check out the Orange lines i have drawn. These orange lines i
drew represents mini pull back trends. These mini pull back
trends can be traded if you correlate it with the RSI.
You can see now how much easier it can be if you utilized the
overall trendline in your trading.
Now keep in mind, these methods usually only work when you are
looking to invest into these stocks for the longer term because as
you can see we are still using the bigger time frames.
Another factor you can add in to your method, is to utilize the
volume bars on the bottom.
As you can see within the price action, whenever the stock gets
too far from the trendline, whenever there is an INCREASE in
selling volume, the stock usually follows the direction of the
volume.
Let’s look at another example that you can use to help you.
Check out the purple lines. These two purple lines i drew are lines
of resistance and support. This line shows me that there are
sellers on top of the line, and somewhere along the bottom of the
line.
You can immediately draw these two lines once you find that a
stock has bounced up and down a range.
What you can do now, is position yourself for the potential
reversal.
What can help you figure out whether the stock is worth it to take
for a reversal?
Use the volume rule that we mentioned earlier. You do not have to
immediately enter this position as soon as it bounces off of the
resistance / or support but you can wait until a significant amount
of volume has presented itself indicating alot of interest in that
stock.
I won’t really be going over chart patterns in this book but its
IMPORTANT that you are able to identify patterns within the chart
because these patterns essentially tell a story.
Supply and demand will determine the direction the price will go
to.
When demand is greater than supply, the price goes up, and vice
versa.
What i’m going to do right now, is guide you on how you can
identify supply and demand when it comes to buying stocks for a
longer term hold.
Checkout the price action from the left. As you can see, the stock
bottomed out, meaning sellers no longer controlled the direction,
and that buyers are accumulating their positions within this stock.
If you can see the first orange line i drew, you can see that the
price then attempts to sell off again but failed.
What i want you to see is that the stock made a HIGHER LOW.
Meaning from where the stock had its lowest point ($305.3)
Now look at the BLUE highlighted oval that i drew here. And also
look at the volume on the bottom. The Blue highlighted signifies a
9 / 21 EMA crossover. The volume on the bottom shows an
increase in demand and the good thing about this example im
showing you is that this is a STRATEGY that you can use for your
long term plays.
But what i will show you now is if you utilize the MOMENTUM
indicator called STOCHASTIC SLOW. If you read my previous
book, then you know all about this indicator.
Here is how it looks when you have the stochastic slow indicator
on.
“StochasticSlow”
The stochastic indicator allows you to see MOMENTUM.
2. They can do a direct listing (where they put the stock straight
on the exchange without raising capital through an IPO)
3. Through being acquired by a SPAC
In todays investing age, i feel like its best to look for companies
who specialize in disruptive innovation.
These are companies who can make products and or solutions (it
can be a pre existing product) and be able to distribute or attract a
wide range of people and have the product so simple, that it
almost doesn’t make sense NOT to have that product.
These are just two companies who have shown that they can
disrupt the industry and this is one of the main reasons why they
are so successful.
For me, for example, what I’m focusing on now, in terms of long
term stocks that I want to look to invest in, is to figure out a
market and/ or industry that is emerging.
Artificial Intelligence
Automation / Robotics
Drones / UAVS
Cybersecurity
Renewable Energy
Electric Vehicles
At the end of the day, when you want to invest into companies,
you want to invest into companies you can believe in. You have to
be willing to do your own extensive research in order to be
comfortable with what you are buying.
Luckily, in today’s age, it’s never been easier to find companies
because there’s so much information out there and you can even
utilize a trading community as a source for information on stocks
and then you can do your own extensive research based on
which stocks were discussed.
Here are some examples of stocks i have found that have shown
tremendous growth in 2020.
These are just SOME companies that have had major growth, out
of many others.
Commodities are also very common, but not very many people
trade commodities.
Commodities refer to things like natural gas, corn, wheat, oil, etc.
Yes you can trade these. You can trade these by trading
FUTURES contracts.
They are both similar because you can utilize these two ways of
trading in order to hedge your positions on your long term
portfolio.
I buy puts for SPY and QQQ if i feel like the market is going to
make a small correction in which i have no idea how much my
long term account may pull back by.
Sometimes if i hold the stock for too long, after its made a
significant amount of growth, i have a tendency to switch them
out, and move on to the next speculative play.
If you invest 80% of your holdings into small cap stocks and 20%
of your holdings into mega cap stocks, then it only makes sense
that your portfolio is almost always going to be volatile.
Blockchain Technology
Space Exploration
Cloud Computing
P2P
Machine Learning
DNA
Stem Cells
Gene Therapy
Molecular Diagnostics
3D Printing
E-Commerce
After figuring out what you want in your portfolio, you can then
adjust accordingly in terms of the weight each of these industries /
topics have.
By the end of this book, you should be able to construct your own
trading strategy and have a better understanding of price action.
In the next few examples we will take a look at Boeing. All of the
examples I show you of techniques/ strategies are taken from my
own charts.
In the example below we will be looking at a 20 day 1 hour time
frame of Boeing.
With the symmetrical triangle you are paying close attention to the
price action within the triangle, and you are waiting for the
breakout opportunity to present itself.
The top of the triangle consists of lower highs and the bottom of
the triangle consists of higher lows until they come to a point
where either buyers / or sellers will overcome one another
causing a breakout
There are occasions where the price can breakout halfway into
the triangle but that will more than likely be labeled as a “range”.
In this case, the impulse move was $25, then it transitioned into a
huge triangle, and the breakout of the triangle was a $25 move.
In the past month, Boeing has soared almost $100.
All of this is due to sentiment and news. There have been a lot of
recent good news on Boeing and it was one of the laggier stocks
to move back up during the pandemic in comparison to the
overall market. And it made sense. They had issues with their
planes that caused fatalities and also the pandemic crushed the
travel industry.
Look at how the price action is treating the top of the triangle as
the price breaks out.
You can see that for the first half of the day, the price consolidated
yet stays above the breakout and starts creating a sloping line to
the upside.
Notice how the volume stays fairly low during this time.
You have to understand that there are specific hours in the market
in which the majority of buyers / sellers come in to participate.
This blue line essentially means that at the breakout level, the
buyers are gaining interest and the demand is increasing.
You can essentially also make a horizontal line on the top thus
creating an ascending triangle.
An ascending triangle shows aggressive buying while sellers stay
stagnant. You see how the lows are getting higher and higher in a
slope while the highs on top stays flat.
The fact that this pattern alone formed itself after a big breakout
can help you have a bullish conviction on this trade.
Let’s look at the next day.
The first thing you always want to do is to label the pre market
highs and label the premarket lows.
After hours and pre market movements can usually gauge how
the market may open.
Economic data is usually the driver for after hours/ pre market
moves.
Pre market / After hours levels are usually good levels to trade off
of, only if you have another level nearby you can use as your
profit target, etc.
More often than not, pre market / after hour levels will usually
respect the previous day’s high / low.
In the example below, you can see that the close from the
previous day acts as a new support after hours / pre market.
This support level can be used as an entry for puts for the next
day because you can have an understanding that, previous to
yesterdays close, we could not break above this price due to the
sellers preventing it from pushing up.
You want to make sure your next resistance levels become your
profit target.
And to ensure you have a good profit target that have a good
chance of hitting, you have to make sure the profit target is still
within your stocks ATR (Average True Range)
There is a partial site you can use called [Link] where you
can look up any stock you want and find out all of the information
you need in regards to its fundamentals, including its ATR.
Once you know and understand what an ATR is, you can use that
number to gauge whether the position you’re trying to get into is
worth it to take or not.
If you have a risk to reward ratio of 1:4 this means that the 4
should be within its ATR.
Example: If you are going to get in XXX at $3 and set a stop loss
at $2, this means you’re risking (1).
If you have a profit target of $7, this means your reward is (4).
Check out the massive volume that came in when the price
breaks and holds the breakout level.
Using the 1 minute can still give you the same conviction. All I’m
looking for on the 1 minute time frame is for the price to settle
above my entry level.
You are essentially going to be looking for candles with long lower
wicks that are setting just above the level when attempting to
enter calls at breakouts using the 1 minute chart.
You want the lower wick to be longer than the upper wick (if it has
an upper wick).
The longer lower wick tells you that there are more buying
pressure coming in at that specific level.
This is like a gauge meter and it allows you to see how much
stronger the buyers are compared to the sellers.
You can always use the stochastic, ema, but understand that
when you are looking at 1 minute charts you must be able to
execute fast.
Another reason why it’s important to execute fast is the current
time in which you’re entering the trade.
If you are trading the first 5-25 minutes of the market, you must be
able to execute fast because volatility tends to be crazy during
this time.
The longer you wait, the more likely you are to miss a move, and
the more expensive the option contract will be.
Boeing ATR
source: [Link]
You start the ATR from the opening price of the stock.
As you can see here BA slowed down after making a $10 move to
the upside from the open.
The perfect entries were the pre market high and the first
resistance.
You can also trade the price action in between using a strategy
called “Top Seed”.
5 Minute Time Frame
If you missed the entry on the first pre market breakout, it’s okay
because you can always trade during the transition after the
impulse.
We talked about this before, remember?
The move from the pre market high breakout is considered the
impulse and this bull flag is the transition.
The reason for the name impulse, is because of how fast this
move can be.
With the top seed strategy you do not enter at the breakout.
With the top seed strategy you are going to enter at the bounce or
mid point of the bull flag.
In the top example, the Top Seed entry is the purple line.
Why?
Because you essentially have the same stop loss as you normally
would if you were to enter at the breakout of the flag.
Capturing the move using the Top Seed strategy allows you to
capture bigger moves than everyone else who enters this trade at
the breakout.
You see the stop loss that’s been laid out here. This is the same
stop loss that you would have had if you entered at the top of the
flag.
But by entering here (purple line) you are able to capture more of
a move.
Like i mentioned, you still have the same stop loss. Entering at
this level ensures you don’t get caught in a pull back that may
happen as soon as the price breaks out.
It also depends on what time of the day you are attempting to take
this trade.
Going back to the strategy, by entering here at the purple line you
might be able to capture the option contract while it’s cheaper
because as the volume increases during the breakout, the IV can
jump up high this causing the contract to be more expensive due
to the Vega of the Option.
In this case for Boeing, we had the huge 4hour pattern that broke
out causing a nice move to the upside recently.
Look at the increase in volume and correlate this with the candles
that I highlighted.
The volume bar of the breakout candle must be higher than the
previous 4-8 bars.
They will usually make the same move in terms of the breakout.
The first impulse move gives you an idea of the move you can
potentially catch.
It’s best if you buy more than 1 contract because you can trim.
A lot of traders’ biggest problems are letting things run and the
“Runner” strategy is a very efficient way of capturing bigger
moves.
Here we have TSLA on the Daily Chart. We see some nice
impulse moves into transitions into more breakouts.
Now let’s identify how much the stock moved during the impulse
moves.
If you look at historical data, and see the same things happening
over and over again, then the probability of it happening again
increases.
There is supply / demand & sentiment within these moves, but the
patterns repeat themselves more often than not.
The way we do our analysis, we use both a top down, and bottom
up approach to our analysis.
We look at the overall economy, down to the sectors, and the
individual stock, and we break down the stock and try to figure out
where it stands based on its current price action in comparison to
how it was the previous hour, day, week ,year, etc & we try to see
where it can go next.
After every breakout, TSLA has moved $140.
When you have a historical pattern like this, even if you missed
TSLA, you have to understand that by utilizing the pole of the
move, you can get an idea of how much you can capture.
These types of setups, that you see so often, are usually the
starting point for huge volatility increases, major price trends and
huge price swings.
This is how accurate trading can be. In the previous example I
showed you the impulse $4 identical breakout on a 5 minute time
frame.
This one here is on a Daily chart.
time frame.
Studies:
TTM_ScalperAlert
StochasticSlow
In the next examples I will go over how you can utilize both of
these studies to have a better edge.
Just because the indicator says buy, it doesn’t mean you should
buy.
5 day 5 minute
Here is the TTM SCALP ALERT
As you can see the sell signal arrow at the market open could’ve
been used as an entry for puts.
In my opinion, it’s better when you combine a few things together
in order to have a conviction.
5 day 5 minute
An indecisive candle has 2 wicks of the same size.
In this case we have a sell signal during pre market but we also
have an indecision candle.
If you pay close attention to the Moving Average you can see that
the 9/21 EMA crosses on the 2nd candle confirming a further
downward trend.
This second candle also confirms the breakout of the pre market
support (if you were to draw an invisible horizontal line across).
5 day 5 minute
You notice how we have a triangle that has formed after the 8th
candle.
This is also a breakout you can trade and you can use the first
impulse move to figure out your profit target.
5 day 5 minute
Let’s further look into how these buy / sell signals can help you.
The thing about this indicator is you will not immediately see the
signal at the bottom.
It takes time for it to confirm and develop.
5 day 5 minute
Also, here’s the best way you can trade this buy indicator. You
want to make sure the momentum confirms so when you look at
the momentum indicator (stochastic) on the bottom there you can
see that it is crossing the threshold as the arrow appears.
The next sell signal appeared at 582.47, more than a $10 move
from where the first buy signal appeared.
5 day 5 minute
Now that the first impulse move has been made, you get a sell
signal.
Now there is something about this sell signal that you should
know about.
This is how you can prevent yourself from potentially getting faked
out of this trade.
This sell signal can be used as a scalp trade but that depends on
your account size.
If you are day trading the stock, then you don’t need to focus on
this sell signal.
In this case, this sell signal was a takeout for daytrades because
the momentum on the 5 minute was still strong.
You will more than likely get sell signals when you’re entering
transitional phases of the stock.
Why?
You leave the others to run through the consolidation period, and
what you can do then is take advantage of the “Top Seed”
strategy.
But the one thing you need to make sure is you want the price
action to be near the end of the pattern before entering it.
1 day 1 minute
Here is an example of the “Top Seed” entry.
This is an example of how you can enter this trade using multiple
confirmations.
The last buy signal that you see is on an indecisive candle and
you want to enter on the next green candle where you get a
volume spike, a stochastic cross and an EMA cross.
1 day 1 minute
Your stop loss in this example would be slightly below the buy
signal arrow.
1Day 1 Minute
Here we have the 1 day 1 minute time frame. Notice how the
price has action has established a support level on the 1 minute
frame. Once you see a support level established like this after a
down arrow, we are essentially waiting for the buy signal to come.
Now take a look at the 3 up arrows that you see on the left.
Notice how they are essentially giving a buy signal in the same
zone.
You can see in the stochastic, that the momentum has shifted to
the upside.
Your next profit target can be the next white arrows or the current
high of the day.
1 day 1 minute
Notice how we had a transitional phase when it hit the first area
where the previous level was.
Now let’s say you used the runner strategy where you buy
multiple contracts, and you’ve taken profits and you’ve rode this
move up with your last contracts.
1 day 1 minute
In this case the sell signal did not appear until 3 candles have
revealed itself.
This is why it’s important to only use this TTM SCALP alert as a
tool.
Incorporating this indicator into your swings can be a major game
changer.
5 day 15 minute
Here’s a 15 minute example of how the indicator can help you.
The 2 bottom arrow shows you that there are buyers there.
The top white arrow that appeared pre market tells you that there
are buyers there and that, that is a support line.
5 day 15 minute
This yellow line will serve as a breakout entry for puts.
5 day 5 minute
Notice how the first $15 move was the initial move that
transitioned into a channel. Notice how the breakout move is
identical to the first initial move.
5 day 5 minute
Check out the stochastic cross over Red arrow that presents
itself.
This setting allows you to easily see when the momentum shifts at
a breakout level.
This arrow will most likely appear at certain breakouts that have a
good chance of shifting in momentum.
5 day 5 minute
Notice how much the selling volume just spiked at this support
level.
This lets you know that sellers are in control of this area and you
should not attempt to trade a reversal anytime soon.
Also,
When the red line is below the blue line, it means that the selling
momentum is at its strongest.
5 day 5 minute
Check out how it kept flushing for another 10 minutes back down
to near its pre market support & low of the day.
Notice got the green buy signal appears right as the stochastic
lines are about to cross.
If you waited or the line to cross the price might have already
broken out.
But if you simply read the price action + apply this arrow to your
conviction, you can potentially make more profi than if you
generally would by waiting for a full breakout.
Just buy looking at the price action you can see that the buying
pressure is currently strong, why?
This huge move it made happened pre market which means you
essentially have institutions, banks, etc who entered before the
market opens.
You have to understand that retail traders will most likely want to
get in on a piece of the action. Especially since the stock has
already made a decent move to the breakout point.
Let’s quickly take a step back to before the buy arrow was
signaled.
Notice how it was given once the price broke over the 9 ema.
Here is how effective this strategy can be when you utilize
multiple factors and execute.
5 day 5 minute
Let’s take a look at how the Scalper alert can help you with this
particular DAYTRADE.
5 day 5 minute
Notice the stochastics crossing as well on the bottom indicating a
shift in momentum as the price is about to breakout.
5 day 5 minute
Pay attention also to the volume spike as the price is breaking out
of this triangle.
Your profit target will be the pre market high that is labeled by the
white arrow on your left.
5 day 5 minute
Notice how the price attempts to break the high of the pre market.
5 day 5 min
Once your profit target has been reached you have to trim your
contracts or take profits and wait for the transitional phase to
happen.
During this time, its best to shift your eyes to other names, and
not be glued to the same name, because transitional phase
usually last longer than the first impulse moves.
5 day 5 minute
Here is another one you can use called the “DMI REVERSAL
ALERT”
In the last example I do not have the DMI reversal on, but if I did
have it on you would see the arrow under the green candle.
5 day 5 minute
There are plenty of ways to use different indicators together and
have an edge while trading.
Now let’s go over the steps in creating accurate levels for your
chart.
If you like looking at multiple stocks at once, this is a way for you
to do so.
You do not know which one of these stocks will move first.
But what you should know is that, laggers will usually follow.
For example, you can see that FB & GOOGL were the first ones
to have the initial run.
AMZN did not start running until after GOOGL was almost halfway
into its move.
MSFT did not start running until AAPL was done with its move.
This is why it’s important to just focus on one name at a time
instead of trying to look at multiple stocks at once.
If you try to catch them all at once, you will not succeed because
like mentioned, these things will not move all the time at the same
exact time.
Sometimes you will not have enough time to be able to make the
drawings that are necessary for you to see the clear picture.
The more you practice on reading charts daily, the better you will
get.
SNOW has already ran $30 by the time you entered… what
makes you think that this was a good entry?
1 hour chart
Here is SNOW on the hourly chart.
If you had looked at the hourly chart / 4 hour chart you should
already know that there was an initial impulse move of $50.
30 minute
Notice how much stronger the 4 hour / Daily levels are compared
to the 5 minute level.
4 hour / Daily levels are the most optimal for developing profit
targets for daytrades.
Sometimes Daytrades require time for you to be in the trade so
having a designated Daily/ 4hour profit target that is still within the
stocks ATR will definitely help you.
1 Minute chart
The blue line shows you a 1 minute resistance. You see that 4
candles have tested this line alone.
You need to be able to identify this with speed so you can catch
it’s breakout.
Once the volume rises above the previous 3-4 bars, that’s when
you want to execute the buy position.
The initial hammer gives me the heads up that the price may
reverse.
Watch how the momentum shifts after the reversal candle
happens.
In this scalp your profit target will be the pre market high.
You may have learned this from the previous book so this
example may be a refresher.
This is an example of how you can use the 1 minute time frame to
your advantage and how you can use this time frame to scalp.
Step 1:
-Multiple long wicks means that the level may hold due to the
Step 2:
-On the day you’re looking to trade this name, identify the pre
market high / low
-Use the same levels that you had made from the previous day
-More than likely, you will use the pre-market highs/ lows as entry
for calls and puts.
1 Minute Chart
You need to be able to spot these resistance levels on the 1
minute.
The first highlighted candle with the breakout allows you to have a
“Top Seed” entry.
1 minute Chart
Your timing needs to be precise.
Even with this perfect setup, are you still able to execute?
These are the types of 1 minute patterns you need to be able to
identify.
1 Minute Chart
Let’s look at this price action.
When you’re reading this price action you will not have enough
time to make this analysis during the day.
Let’s now jump into an indicator you may not know about.
“Impulse”
This indicator replaces the color of your candles to red blue and
green.
When the MACD & EMA values are higher than the previous
candle, it’ll turn green, “bullish”.
But this requires you to get the script itself from google (which i
will not link here).
Make sure the settings is set to what it looks like here.
Change the length to: 9
That sounds good, but make sure you pay attention to the volume
and the momentum indicator before entering trades.
With this indicator, you can get a better picture of when you can
enter trades.
Daily
In this example you can see how if you entered an overnight
swing position on the breakout candle, you would immediately be
in profit the next day.
You can see here, in the span of 2 months, every time we get a
nice breakout opportunity, this indicator has shown to be accurate
in terms of going in the direction we are looking to trade.
This is the type of accuracy you want in an indicator, especially
when you have multiple indicators going to work for you at the
same time.
Daily Chart
-Breakout Candle
-Increased Volume
-Stochastic Cross
4 hour chart
Here is an example of MSFT on the 4 hour time frame.
The stock followed its own wave where it kept making lower highs
while you had 3 different bear flags forming.
1 minute chart
Here’s how you can take advantage of this combination of
indicators while using a 1 minute chart.
Look at the blue candle within the triangle with a long upper wick.
This means that the buyers are still present within that candle.
-Breakout
-9/21 Cross
-Volume Spike
-Stochastic Cross
This is enough conviction to enter this trade.
You are only in control of how much you are risking on your
trades.
You should not rely on any single indicator to help you with your
trading.
Using Top Seed + Impulse together can give you an edge but like
any other strategies, you must use it with caution.
In this case we will have the same stop loss as if we would if we
entered at the traditional breakout.
You may not see this because of the triangle, but in reality, the
level we are attempting to trade is the pre market high.
Tip: When trading a pattern breakout close to its pre market high
level, you want to make sure you have a steady uptrend coming
into the level.
Creating a Watchlist:
1 touch is okay on the weekly. I try to get at least 2 unless its the
top / bottom, but 1 is passable.
You don’t need to pay attention to the bottom part of the chart
because in all reality, the stock probably will not fall back to its
lows in the next week, so this saves you a lot of time.
Weekly, daily, 4h levels i will color code, while the 1h, 30 min, 5
min levels i leave white.
A lot of the times, the bigger time frame levels will be the most
defined levels in terms of the chances of it retesting.
In this color set, i have the Pink as the weekly levels, the Blue as
the daily levels, and the Orange as the 4 hour levels.
Once you move down the time frames, if you have levels that are
tight enough to be considered as entry and exit, and these
parameters fall into the ATR, you don’t necessarily need to create
more levels on the lower time frames.
Unless the gap between the bigger time frame levels are
significantly higher, then you could leave it as is.
Have a clear plan before entering any trades. Have a set profit
target, and have a clear entry.
Do not be afraid to cut your loss when the price hits your stop
loss.
Do not be afraid to take your profits when it hits your target, even
when it seems like the price can move even higher.
The only exception to this rule is if you use the “runner” strategy
when you are essentially trimming your contracts and letting some
run because you’ve already taken your small bit of profits.
And you have to come to terms and peace with that simple fact.
Every single day, you get behind your phone, or your computer,
you have to come to terms with the fact that you’re there for
growth.
When you have consecutive down days, take a step back and
reset and identify the mistakes that you made.
There are a few ways to trade breakouts, and the easiest way is to use a smaller
time frame to try to get in at the earliest possible time. The trick is to go down 2
frames from where you’ve made the trendlines. In this case, we are looking at the
daily time frame. In order for me find a potential entry on a BREAKOUT, then i
must go down to the 1 hour chart to find an entry. Anything lower, can potentially
lure me into a fakeout. And anything higher, does not give me enough data for a
conviction.
For reversals to the downside, there is a different approach you can take. You
can use the Moving Averages you implemented on your chart to help you. In
order to use the MA’s to help you, you have to think of the MA’s as its own
resistance and or support.
If the moving average is forming within a demand / supply zone, then you have to
assume that the candlesticks will move in the direction of the zone, regardless of
whether you get a potential crossover on the EMA. This is one reason why
trusting the EMA’s themselves can’t be its own strategy,. There are times where,
if you were to trust the EMA’s and assume its going to go in the direction you
want it to, you get caught in a reversal. If the moving averages crossover to the
upside in a supply zone, expect a bearish move in the near future. Price Action
will always overcome indicators.
If you get an EMA crossover to the upside, in a demand zone, then its a good
time to trade calls. Also, sometimes the moving average will form right where the
resistance trendline is, and if they are both at the same level, this doubles the
chances of the candlesticks to reverse back down, IF the candlesticks test either
of these two as resistance. If the candlesticks continue to pierce through both of
these lines, then expect a bullish move. Usually when they do pierce through, a
crossover on the EMA must have happened shortly before. Charting is like doing
LEGO. You have different pieces right in front of you, and you have to find the
ones that fit.
Trading bounces is probably one of the easier trades to take because there’s not
really much to it. Believe it or not, i believe bounces are easier to read than
reversals.
You can apply the GP strategy when trading bounces, or you can just look at the
weekly chart, and see where there are big demand levels. Also, by going to the
weekly chart, you can find demand zones that happened in the past, and use that
zone as an area of value, where you will buy.
I know that charting might look hard to you, but the more time you spend on the chart,
the more things will make sense. I believe that there are so many ways to trade and be
profitable, because i think that the charts speak differently to everyone. By this i mean,
each person can interpret the charts differently. What i see, someone else might not see,
and what they see, i probably don’t see. This is why, sometimes, when we do a lesson
on charting, i might point out things that you could have never have seen unless i
pointed them out to you. This is also why sometimes, you can find a bull flag, a
symmetrical triangle, and a wedge all in one chart within the same candles.
Figure out how they’ve moved over the past week, month, 6 month, even
year.
Support and Resistance levels allows you gauge where buyers or sellers
are sitting. If a stock has reached a high of $150 4 times this week and
fails to break that level again, this means that $150 is the level where sellers
are heavy, and buyers aren’t.
If a stock has reached a series low of $100 4 times this week and is always
bouncing off of that level, this gives you the idea that, at $100, the buyers
are heavy.
Knowing these types of levels allows you to make better trades because you
start to understand the trading range. Trading ranges form when the stock
is trading between a
Trading Plan
Account Size: $1,000
10% risk
10 / day
10 x 2: 200
Month 1
$400
Month 2
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Month 7
20 trades per month
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12
Month 13
FB/AAPL/ROKU/FB/NVDA/AMD/DIS/AMZN/ TSLA
FB/AAPL/ROKU/FB/NVDA/AMD/DIS/AMZN/ TSLA
$1000 to $100,000
You can use 20% risk instead to do this in HALF the time, but you’re adding
on more risk.
This can always change and you can always end up getting more than 20%
profit per trade because the example above is being CONVSERVATIVE.
Using the power of compounding you are able to make the most on Month
11 & 12.
$5,000 Account | AGGRESSIVE
Month 1: $5,000
Month 2: $9,000
Month 3: $16,200
Month 4: $29,160
Month 5: $52,488
Month 6: $94,788
20 trades per month
Risk 10%, and just aim for 20% profits per trade, 20 times per month.
If you use 10% risk on a $5,000 account, you have essentially 200 trades
you can do in one month.
Don’t focus on the profits, but focus on trading well every day. Focus on
finding high probability setups and always execute on these setups.
The main reason why people fail to how their accounts is they try to grow it
too fast thus using terrible risk management.
Figure out how they’ve moved over the past week, month, 6 month,
even year.
fails to break that level again, this means that $150 is the level where
sellers are heavy, and buyers aren’t.
If a stock has reached a series low of $100 4 times this week and is
always bouncing off of that level, this gives you the idea that, at $100,
the buyers are heavy.
Knowing these types of levels allows you to make better trades because
you start to understand the trading range. Trading ranges form when
the stock is trading between a
Conservative
Moderate
Aggressive
Now, the most important piece of information for you to understand isa the
simple fact that trading is 90% PSYCHOLOGICAL.
What I mean by that is, you can have 100 people using the same
strategies, but only 20% of them succeed. Why is that a fact?
Conservative….
You buy each contract for $25-50. And use a 20$ stop loss, meaning you’re
risking $5-$10 per trade. Which isn’t bad, but wouldn’t it be nice to grow
your account at a faster rate?
In order for you to gain confidence, use the THINKORSWIM app, and trade
ON DEMAND.
ON DEMAND trading allows you to choose any trading days from the past
and trade them as if it was real time. The platform gives you fake money for
you to use so you can buy the same exact contracts that were sold that
particular day.
The reason why i have been so profitable (and brett as well) is because i’ve
used all of my lessons i’ve learned from losing, and i get rid of the
emotional attachment i’ve ever had with money, at least during those few
trading hours where i have to be able to perform at an optimal level.
Moderate approach…
A moderate approach to me, means that you are willing to risk money, but
you’re smart enough to know how much money to allocate into each trade.
A moderate trader has a lot of great risk management skills, and moderate
traders tend to be the most consistently profitable ones.
Being moderate will allow you to produce more high percentage trades.
$1,000 account and he uses $100 per trade with a 25% stop loss. This
allows the moderate trader to make more money percentage wise because.
A Moderate trader does not set a timeline in how long they expect to flip
their accounts, instead, they focus on what’s in front of them.
Aggressive traders:
Now my trick is, looking for breakouts on the 4 hour level, and using the 5
minute candle that breaks out of the 4 hour line, you have more of a
chance the stock will go your way because the momentum of buyers are
coming in on the bigger time frames.
Regardless of what kind of a trader you are, and no matter how much
knowledge you know about the stock market, or the charts, etc, you can’t
always be right because sometimes the market will just do what it wants to
do, and at that point, it’s out of your control.
The GAME PLAN is to
Use money you aren’t afraid to lose (to help your conscious)
Follow a strict risk management plan. Meaning, If you are going
to use 5% of your account for a single trade, have a 20-30%
stop loss.
If you are going to use 10% of your account for a single trade,
have a 15-25% stop loss.
If you are going to use 20% of your account for a single trade,
have a 10-15% stop loss.
If you are going to use 30% of your account for a single trade,
have a 5% stop loss.
Focus on HIGHLY probable trades. Meaning you have to find
points in the chart that have been tested multiple times, and
when and if it reaches that certain level again, you can trade the
breakout of the level.
Finding Breakout patterns aren't the only way to execute some
of the best trades. Extensive knowledge of candlesticks will
allow you to dissect each candle to and allow you to see and
pinpoint areas of the chart with the most demand just by using
candlesticks.
Most of all, Brett and I are trying to help you. We are here for
you and we only want to see you win. We want to change your
life and change your outlook on your future and remind you that
there is so much out there for you, and you need to step up and
take control of your life and destiny.