Probability Distribution ↓

Suppose
variable
two

representing
coins

the
are

number
tossed .

of
Let
heads
X

that
be the

occur
random

.
Find the

random variable X.
values of
the

Probability is the probability of event which T

Marginal
-
an

requires that only one characteristic or attribute be satisfied . cain <

i Sample Space : S TT, TH, HT
, HHY

Joint Probability is the probability where two or more events

can occur together .

Two or more characteristics or attributes be
satisfied Possible Outcomes X

at the same time

.
2

HT

A B C Joint Probability : P ( Dand c ) = 器 TH

B 5 19 43
4A and D) =
11 P(A and B) =

0 ☆
TT

4
E 29 10 P (A and El =

Disjoint or mutually Exclusive

Discrete Random Variable

denote
A BC Marginal Probability
. If we toss a coin three times and the number

of heads that fall by X them have :

D 5 19 43 an
PCA ) =

Total
=
,
we

P (X ) 京
f (03
E 29 4 10 43 / 3)
:
P 0
= =
-

"
Ʃ 34 23 53
PCD ) =
f )
(1 : P { x = 1 |=÷
p ( ×= 2 )
=
f 127
=

Mutually Exclusive if there opportunities for them to simultaneously (3) :

P(X =
3) =
to
f
-
is no occur

Nonmutually Exclusive -

If the events have some sample points in common .

HH
If two coins are tossed ,
the possible outcomes are
, ,
HT

TH ,
TT .
If X is the random variable
for the number of

when we
know ou r sample space in calculating the head ,
refers
certain event.
probability of a

H
of I
0 2
n(E) the event 2 No heads
n ( E) = number
of outcomes
favorable to Heads (x)
PLE ) =

io i
N HT One head Probability I
of possible
N = total number outcomes .
π
P ( x)
TH 1 Two heads

T「
Examples :

the probability odd number when

1 Given a die , find of getting an

distribution die.
roll a die once .
Construct probability for single
=
you a a

PCE ) =

n (t ) Event A : 4 1
,
3
,
53 = 3
Sample Space : 4 1 2 3 , ,
,
4 ,
5 , 63
N Sample Space : 41 2, 3 4 5, 63 =
6 "P(E) E or 0 5 Each to
possibility
=
, , ,
.

is

discreteProbability Distribution :
2
2 A coin is tossed 3 times .
Find the
probability of getting exactly two
Properties of
heads . The all probabilities should be 1 P(X) =
: sum
of .

P ( ×7 ≤
nJE) : {HAT, THH, HT H y = 3 O ≤ |

PCE) =

章
N : C ++ T ,
HAH
,
TTH THA THT HTT HAT HTH3 = 8
, , , ,
,

Example :
three Coins tossed .
Suppose are Let I be the random
chance in
quantitative variable whose value
depends
way
is some . the number
representing
on
a
variable of fails . Construct the

distribution and draw the histogram .

probability
2
types of Random Variable
Pos sible Valuz

占能 。 含彎
1 Discrete Random Variable T Outcomes Y Ctail )

variables which have

finite or countable possible ain < TTT 3

outcome.. TTH 2

Example outcomes
of possible flipping
: Variables on a coin 3 times THT 2

x
=
{ 0
.
1
,
2
.
3 φ Number of tails , y 01 2 3 THH

Probability ,
P(Y) t to t H+ 「 2

2 .
Continuous Random Variable HTH

variables which are usually in

forms of decimals or
proportions .
His to goam !

Example : Variables ofrunners for the 100m dash .

X = { 7 ,
i2 s
,
9 003,
s
,
12 .
25 s
,
10 . 15 s g Ʃ

2 Y

PlY )
弓
言
 :
Example
.
2 Box A and Box B contain 1 2
, , . 1
3 .
Write the probability mass
: If you roll a die
,
4 times
.
What is the probability
and histogram of the when number that 1 twice ?
function draw the get
sum
from
one a
you
replacement

品 9 = いにに
each box taken at time with .
合 x
is a
, 、
ッ

g ( ^ : ) ()
( - 2

张
)“
短
Box A Box B p ( 27
=

6
路)
1
' 7 PC 2 ) =
楽 )( 家1 (
2 2
'
P(2) :
≈ 0 . 1 157 or 1 - 57 %
"

≤:
' 3
Mean :
M
=
4 .

5 = or E
2 4
Variance : 0' =
.
n
p
.

g
=
5
standard Deviation : o =
n .

p
.

q = or 0 . 745351

3 4 5 6e 1 8
4 2

P (x ) e 急 告吾売 広

Histo :
gram

2 } L 5 6
T
∞

3
. The following data show the probability for the number
of
cars gold

at store .
given day
in a a car dealer

9
Number of Cars
,
X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Probability ,
P(x) 0 100
.
0 150
.
. 250
0 0 .
140 0 . 090 0 0800 060
.
. 0 050
. 0 . 040 0 .
025 0 . 015

~ ~
~
B[ )
a ) Firal X ≤ 2

β ( X ≤ 2) = PSO ) t Pl " t PL 2 >

=
0 .
100 + 0
. 150 + 0
. 250

== 0. so

b Find P(x]7)

( 9 ) t Pl ( o >
P (X2 2 ] =
p (7 ) tP ( 8 ) t P

= 0 .
050 . 040 +
+ 0 0 . 025 + 0 .
015

= 0 . 13 D

)
cl Find Pli ≤× ≤ 5

5 2 ) TPL 3 ) tPs ) tPC 5)

P/ - PS 1 ) + P
(
1 ≤ X ≤ )

= 0.150 + 0.250 + 0.196 + 0.090 + 6.0 8

= 0 .

/ 10

Binary Outcomes > Occurs/Success or Doesn't Occur/Failure

I ndspendent Trials · success/Failure does not

affect others

N# of trials

Same probability trial

per

Mean . M = n .

standard Deviation : 0 =
.
n
p
.

q
=
n .

p
.

(l p)-

Variance : o = U .

p
.

(役)
' ^
-
*

P (× ) =
p q

number
X
=
of successes

# trials
n
of
=

p
=
probability of success

q
=
probability of failure
長
言
 2 distribution
Poisson's Probability Distribution

c
-
u .

uX 2
-

Score ->
number
of
standard deviation
from the mean

P(X) = X !

皆
^

2 =

M =
mean number
of occurences per unit (time ,
value ,
area ,
Itc )
.

:
Example
Example : U = 65

distributed
↓
If there are 200
typographical errors in a
500-page 0: a

manuscript , find the probability that a

given page contains
exactly Find the percent of scores

3 errors .
9) Less than 54 P(x <59)
,

X = 59

= 54 65
-

=
U 0 .
4 =
9
= 1 .
2 2

e
U
-
W
X
checking the table

P( ×) ) 01 に. .
= に

! P (x C 54 = 6 .1 いて o

ao .
4
PC 31 =
0 . ,

" 6) at leas 80
P(x180)
,

P ( 3) =
0 . 00 71 0 -
λ
= 80

80 .
45
= = 1 .
a3
2 9

Ψ
1. 6
>
-
0 .
9525 -> area to the
left
15 35 13 . 5 3434 13 .

5350 15

へ
.
0 .
2 .

黛
0 9525
-

nan
:อา
'

1 に
0 . 95 2 £ =
0 . 0475 0 〜 4 75
.
%
[ '

8 - 30 -to - 10 11 10 10 30

C .
between 10 and 86

=
34 1 .
& =
x 70 @x= 8
86 -
G5
印8 6℃ = 27 2 = 13 . 5 .
: 5 6 =
= 2 33
.

- = . 9
τ 0

3 5 99
GG . 7 -
95 =
9 - 7 / 2 : 2 -
% 2 : 0 . 99 0 1 2 0 .

M =
population mean

5 =
standard deviation P ( POCx C 8 G ) : . 9901
.
8
-
. 7123
0

ン 0 - 2円 ℃ ℃ 2 7 38 %

"

Note : subtract the areas

only from the -table

U = 75

·=

<
嬭 54
'

o l 15 8 ? 81 96

a7 68 % p(68(X( 82)
students
b 95 % x000 =
760

)
a) 100 - 99.7= 0.15% X 800 = 1.2

( )
"

e >
Probability Density Function
a .

flal :

160c-(x-M)
oh
dx
↑ (00 - X (82) =
oftt

: 68 %
 Distribution
Exponential

Probability under the Curve :

e (]
P = 1 -

Mean =
I

Variance
Median =

Example :

"

9) Calculate the rate parameter

Parameter …
Rate λ

x =
mean/average =
5

Rate Parameter =
- = 0 . 20
years

b) Probability function
λ x
(y ) De
-

f
:

-
0- 2 ×

f (x ) =
0 .
20 c

O LO

\
.

b 15

'

-
50520

ex .

l Hs =
plxax ) : 1 -
> less than
0
2053)
- .

P (x(3)
= 1 -
e

=
0 . 45 12 or 45 12 %

'
"
d ) HR = P ( XCX ) =
C
x
>
greater than

rociol -
)
-

P ( x 3 60 -
e 0 . 1353 0r 13 .
53 y
.

e ) pL 94 xc 7 )
e- ℃ ()
( ×< ) 1 .
0

P 1 7 534
-

:
7 = -

e
: σ .

λ x 0 .
20 ( 9 )
P [ xc 4 ) = 1 -

e - 1 -

e = 0 .
5 5 0 7

P ( 4 c × < 7 ) :
0 . 7539 - 0 . 5507 = 0 20 27 or 20 27
-
.

Median : = = 3 . 4657

Variance : T = 25
一
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