Infiltration: The Rumour and the Reality
Sujan Bhattacharyya
Now-a-days it has become a common rhetoric that Muslim infiltration has
crossed all the limits in West Bengal in recent times. The issue of N.R.C. is certainly
fuelling the discussion. None of the countries are superfluous with natural resources.
Hence for the protection and development of lawful citizens, these people should be
thrown out of the country. A point is to be clarified at the very first instance. Such a
discussion must not have any call to humanity. It is not wise to take the refuge of the
thing that has no existence now-a-days. The only thing that we may assort is to go
through figures obtainable from the various census reports and to apply a critical mind
over them. And whatever be the outcome of that introspection, we must accept that as
the ground realty.
Let us proceed now. It is a fact that there is infiltration and there always will be.
Whenever there is a political border, there is infiltration. And that it is always
unidirectional, cannot be assumed safely. The first tier of the infiltrating folk comprises
of wretched toiling people, who cross the border with a dire need of earning the bread.
The second tier involves outlawed people. They may be ordinary criminals or political
activists. Sometimes these political activists are welcome in the foreign land and
sometimes are not. If they are officially taken care of, they become guests; otherwise
they are also treated as illegal infiltrators.
And then comes the third and the most important section. If their advent is
accepted by the neighbouring country, they become refugees. As millions of people who
fled to Indian soil at the time of liberation war of Bangladesh, are regarded so. And if
that trans-border journey is not welcome by the other country, the same people become
illegal infiltrators. When vast number of Rohingya people arrived at Bangladesh, they
were first warmly accepted by the government as well as the people. The emotion
regarded them as refugees. But with time the sentiment is gradually vanishing and the
same folk are being termed now as infiltrators.
Now the question is why people leave their country in a large number. Natural
calamity may be an answer, though not quite satisfactory. When a section of people feels
helpless and apprehends a complete extinction at the face of racial, communal or
political unrest in their country, they take the road to elsewhere. They are not liked in
their own country. And whether they will be liked in the other one, is not certain. And
these people are sometimes termed as refugees and sometimes as infiltrators.
Naturally there are infiltrators also in India. And that all of them have resorted to
pious and legitimate process is not true. The propaganda about Muslims is wide-spread.
We often forget about the Tamil-people who took shelter in India at the time of anti-
LTTE operation in Jaffna by the Sri Lankan army. Some of them might not have
returned. Rohingyas are also in India. Official shelters are run for them. There are
Tibetan immigrants who came with Dalai Lama. There is vast number of Nepalese also.
They are entitled to reside, earn bread and to procure property in India, under the Indo-
Nepalese Treaty of 1950. But the incoming number has already transformed Darjeeling;
originally a Lepcha dominated area into the melting pot for Gorkhaland.
Propaganda and the Numerals: The Indian Perspective
The last census took place in 2011 in India. That is the latest official data
available on various aspects of the population. There may be some other more specific
and core-based surveys also. And we will be restricted to these official data only.
According to the last census Indian population were 121.01 crores comprising of 96.63
crores of Hindu people (79.8%) and 17.22 crores of Muslims (14.23%). And the
publication of that community-wise report made a hue and cry in the country. Almost
everyone was in a fear of Muslim majority in the coming 50 or 60 years. And that is still
percolating. The Statement II of Chapter 3 of the report discusses about the Decadal
Growth Rate of population over the decades:
Census Population Decadal
Year (crores) Growth rate
1941 31.86 14.22
1951 36.10 13.31
1961 43.92 21.64
1971 54.81 24.80
1981 68.33 24.66
1991 84.64 23.87
2001 102.87 21.54
2011 121.01 17.64
TABLE -1
On the basis of the Table – 1 if we proceed further, we shall see a clear tendency of Change
of Decadal Growth Rate in India:
Census Decadal Change of
Year Growth Decadal Growth
rate Rate
1941 14.22 3.22
1951 13.31 (-) 0.91
1961 21.64 8.33
1971 24.80 3.16
1981 24.66 (-) 0.14
1991 23.87 (-) 0.79
2001 21.54 (-) 2.33
2011 17.64 (-) 3.90
TABLE - 2
It is evident from the above table that there is always a negative trend in the
change of Decadal Growth Rate excepting 1961. The sudden fall in the decade of 1941 to
1950 had a direct connection with the partition of the land and both way cross-border
movement of people. Considering the Decadal Growth Rate of 14.22 of 1941, the
estimated population of India would have been 36.39 crores in 1951, while the exact
population was counted to be 36.10 crores. So, eventually there was an excess by a mere
number of 0.29 crores. The impact of partition should not have been such devastating if
these figures are trusted. But everyone knows figures and rationales do not govern the
universe, rather they are ridiculed.
Are the Muslims running on their stride?
Since the publication of the census report of 2011, serious allegation of a
possible Muslim hegemony is being raised. Even today it is on its full swing. Someone
may ask, even if that happens, what the hell it will bring upon. But in a reign of post-
truth, no rationale is acclaimed. Hence, we are to go through the official documentation
only and to introspect at every corner. Let us start with community-based population of
India, basically of Hindus and Muslims since 1951.
Census Total Hindus Percent Muslims Percent
Year (Crores) (Crores) (Crores)
1951 36.10 30.36 84.10 3.54 9.80
1961 43.92 36.65 82.76 4.69 10.68
1971 54.81 45.33 82.70 6.14 11.20
1981 68.33 56.24 82.31 8.03 11.75
1991 84.64 69.01 81.53 10.67 12.61
2001 102.87 82.76 80.50 13.82 13.40
2011 121.01 96.62 79.80 17.22 14.22
TABLE - 3
Yes, the above table certainly indicates that the ratio of Muslim population is
increasing at the cost of decline of ratio of Hindu population. In the period of sixty years
the percentage of Hindus declined by 4.30 while that of Muslims rose up by 4.42. Does
this justify the theory of infiltration? Does it prove the incessant propaganda? To get to
it, let us take the refuge of a graph.
GRAPH – 1 (Hindu and Muslim Population from 1951 to 2011)
Possibly the graph states everything alone. The columns clearly establish that
since the independence the total Hindu population is always marching well ahead of the
Muslim population. Let us now take some simple arithmetic. In 1951 Hindu population
was 30.36 crores and was 96.62 crores in 2011. Hence it gained by 66.26 crores in 60
years yielding a Simple Average Growth Rate of 1.10 crores per annum. On the other
hand, Muslim population was 3.54 crores in 1951 that was enhanced to 17.22 crores in
2011. Hence the total gain was 13.68 crores. So, Simple Average Growth Rate of
Muslims is 0.23 crores per year. Hence in each year, Hindus get further majority over
the Muslims by 0.87 crores. Considering that huge recurring addition, it is safely
proclaimed that in India Muslims will never be able to overtake Hindus. The only way
left will be mass-vasectomy or suicide en-masse or a mass conversion.
Let us now move further and analyse the Decadal Growth Rate of both the
communities on the basis of 1951.
Census Hindu Muslim
DGR Change DGR Change
1961 20.76 NA 32.48 NA
1971 23.68 2.92 30.92 (-) 1.57
1981 24.07 0.39 30.78 (-) 0.14
1991 22.71 (-) 1.36 32.88 2.10
2001 19.92 (-) 2.79 29.52 (-) 3.36
2011 16.76 (-) 3.16 24.60 (-) 4.92
TABLE – 4
Let us plot the DGR of both the communities:
Graph – 3 (DGR of Hindus & Muslims from 1961 to 2011)
The graph establishes the fact that in India, both the Hindus and Muslims exhibit
a negative trend of Growth Rate. DGR of Hindu community was declining since 1991.
Muslims showed the same trend since 1971 excepting the census figure of 1991. And in
each block, the negative change of Muslim DGR is higher than that of Hindus. The overall
downfall in DGR of Hindus is 4.00 over the last 50 years while the Muslims attained this
to the extent of 7.88. And this explains the paradox that why the population Gap
between the Hindu and Muslim community is continuously increasing. Let us examine
the scenario further.
The Population Gap
Let us now see the exact gap between the Hindus and Muslims after the
independence.
Census Hindus Muslims Gap
(in Crores) (in Crores) (in Crores)
1951 30.36 3.54 26.82
1961 36.65 4.69 31.96
1971 45.33 6.14 39.19
1981 56.24 8.03 48.21
1991 69.01 10.67 68.34
2001 82.76 13.82 68.94
2011 96.62 17.22 79.40
TABLE – 5
The Gap is now portrayed over a new graph for visualization.
Graph – 4 (Population Gap of Hindus & Muslims from 1951 to 2011)
The graph clearly demonstrates the gradual rise in the population gap in India
between the Hindus and the Muslims. On the basis of rise in the ratio of Muslims in the
latest census, some are spreading the theory of Muslim domination in near future. But
the graph as well as the Table No 5 reveals just the reverse. It is a notion common to
most of the non-Muslims that Muslims maintain a polygamist family pattern and make
each of their wives pregnant frequently. How then the population gap is increasing? Are
the Hindus then playing the same game of keeping extra-marital relations and
cultivating them? Let us now examine the percentage of rise of this population gap.
Census Gap Rise
(in Crores) (in
Crores)
1951 26.82 NA
1961 31.90 65.14
1971 39.10 97.23
1981 48.20 19.02
1991 58.34 10.13
2001 68.94 10.60
2011 79.40 10.46
TABLE - 6
A question must arise here. We have already seen in Table - 4 that the DGR of
Muslims is always higher than the Hindus. How then the population gap is increasing?
Which one is correct. The answer is both. A mere percentage reflects nothing if the base
figure is not considerred. In India, the base figure of Hindus is more than 10 times as
that of Muslims considering the population of 1951. That initial thrust is not
reconsciliable under normal condition. The reality is DGR of both the Hindus and
Muslims are ina declining mode in India. That is menifested into the increasing
population gap, difference of Hindus to Muslims is continuously rising. Naturally the
propaganda that Muslims will numerically dominate the Hindus is a hoax, a baseless
one.
The Bengal Perspective
The similar rumour is wide-spread even in West Bengal. And as per the
statements publicly made by the national and regional leaders of the ruling party at the
union level, the situation in West Bengal is much more critical. It is often proclaimed
that illegal infiltrators from Bangladesh, mostly Muslims are taking shelter in the state.
It is also claimed openly that once the state-level power comes to them, these
infiltrators will be thrown out of India. Leaving these political acrobatics aside, let us see
the growth of population in West Bengal.
Census Population Growth DGR Change
(Crore) (Crore) of DGR
1941 2.32 NA NA NA
1951 2.63 0.31 13.22 NA
1961 3.49 0.86 32.80 19.58
1971 4.43 0.94 26.87 (-) 5.93
1981 5.46 1.03 23.17 (-) 3.70
1991 6.81 1.35 24.73 1.56
2001 8.02 1.21 17.77 (-) 6.96
2011 9.13 1.11 13.84 (-) 3.93
TABLE - 7
Let us have a look at the difference between the national DGR and that of West
Bengal. For a comprehensive analysis, the base year is prefixed at 1911, when the
capital of British-India was shifted from Kolkata to Delhi:
Census National WB Difference Change
DGR DGR
1911 5.75 6.25 0.50 NA
1921 (-) 0.31 (-) (-) 2.60 (-) 3.10
2.91
1931 11.00 8.14 (-) 2.86 (-) 0.26
1941 14.22 22.93 8.71 11.47
1951 13.31 13.22 (-) 0.09 (-) 11.56
1961 21.64 32.80 11.16 11.25
1971 24.80 26.87 3.07 (-) 8.09
1981 24.66 23.17 (-) 0.51 (-) 3.58
1991 23.87 24.73 0.86 1.36
2001 21.54 17.77 (-) 4.78 (-) 5.64
2011 17.64 13.84 (-) 3.80 (-) 0.98
TABLE -8
What a surprise! India witnessed a rise in DGR in the consecutive census periods
of 1931 to 1971. The DGR in West Bengal always remained behind the national score
excepting 1941, 1961, 1971 and 1991. In 1941 there was no prospect of partition. The
only development was the tabling of the Lahore Proposal. Wherefrom then people
flocked to West Bengal and why? Does it mean that keeping an eye on the Lahore
Proposal, Muslims from all corners of the country rushed to West Bengal? Natural logic
defies this proposition. The answer lies elsewhere. The sudden rise in population was
supplied by Burma. At the onset of the World War II, Burmese people took this an
opportunity to overthrow the British Rule. They got the military help of Japan. In the
‘30s, Burma experienced a heavy communal attack upon Indian settlers. The further
development created panic among them and in large number they left for West Bengal.
And the mass was mainly composed of Bengali and Tamil Hindus.
1951 refers to the census done immediately after the partition and influx of
millions of Bengali refugees from the-then East Bengal. Still the DGR in West Bengal was
slightly lesser than the national DGR. How this can be explained excepting moving out of
a section of Muslim population to the-then East Bengal? In the late 50s, a fresh wave of
refugees fell upon West Bengal. Naturally the DGR was high above the national level.
1971 is the period of Bangladesh Liberation War and another inflow of refuges. In spite
of that West Bengal recorded a havoc downfall in DGR. How did it happen? The only one
explanation that remains to be reasonable is that a section of refugees settled earlier in
West Bengal moved to their own place after the liberation of Bangladesh.
Now the distribution of Hindu and Muslim population over the periods under
consideration in West Bengal is tabled as follows:
Census Total Hindu Percent Muslim Percent
(Crore) (Crore) (Crore)
1941 2.10 1.41 67.14 0.55 26.19
1951 2.63 2.07 78.71 0.51 19.39
1961 3.49 2.75 78.80 0.79 22.64
1971 4.43 3.46 78.10 0.91 20.54
1981 5.46 4.20 76.92 1.17 21.43
1991 6.81 5.09 74.74 1.61 23.64
2001 8.02 5.81 72.45 2.02 25.19
2011 9.13 6.43 70.43 2.46 26.94
TABLE -9
It is clear that the percentage of Muslim population is ever-rising in West Bengal
and in 2011 it has crossed even the level of pre-partition level. Does it not imply that in
the near future they will become the majority here? Well, before making any comment
let us see a graph on the respective population in West Bengal.
Graph – 5 (Hindu & Muslim Population in West Bengal)
Are these coloured towers say something? Are they echoing the apprehension
state just now? Or they imply something different? Let us move further.
Propaganda and the real numbers
It is crystal clear that unlike India, the percentage of Muslim population has
increased in West Bengal also. To have a more precise account, let us move to the exact
figure of population gap between the Hindus and the Muslims in West Bengal.
Census Hindu Muslim Gap
(Crores) (Crores) (Crores)
1941 1.41 0.55 0.86
1951 2.07 0.51 1.56
1961 2.75 0.79 1.96
1971 3.46 0.91 2.55
1981 4.20 1.17 3.03
1991 5.09 1.61 3.48
2001 5.81 2.02 3.79
2011 6.43 2.46 3.97
TABLE - 10
And if that be plotted in a graph, it will resemble like this
Graph – 6 (Population Gap in West Bengal)
And once again, it is observed that just like the pan-Indian scenario, the
population gap between the Hindus and the Muslims is also increasing in West Bengal.
Taking 1941 as the base year, the gap is 461.63%. Hindu population has increased to
456.03% of that of 1941 while the Muslim growth is 447.27%. It is once again reiterated
that the perspective percentage of growth implies nothing until and unless we consider
the base figure. As the base figure for Hindus was much higher than that for the
Muslims, in contrast to the rhetoric ever echoed by a particular brand of politicians, the
population gap is practically widening and shall remain to be so unless and until a
catastrophe touches particularly the Hindu section. Many things occur in mythical story-
line. But mother-nature is cautious enough in each respect.