1.

6 Probability, Sta s cs and Random Processes

When this condition is satisfied, the events A1, A2, ..., An are also said to
be totally independent. A set of events A1, A2, ..., An is said to be mutually
independent if the events are totally independent when considered in sets of 2,
3, ..., n events.
In the case of more than two events, the term ‘independence’ is taken as ‘total
independence’ unless specified otherwise.
Theorem 1
If the events A and B are independent, the events A and B (and similarly A and
B ) are also independent.
Proof
The events A « B and A « B are mutually exclusive such that (A « B) »
( A « B) = B.
\ P(A « B) + P( A « B) = P(B) (by addition theorem)
\ P( A « B) = P(B) – P(A « B)
= P(B) – P(A) P(B) (by product theorem)
= P(B) [1 – P(A)]
= P( A ) P(B)

Theorem 2
If the events A and B are independent, then so are A and B .
Proof
P( A « B ) = P( A » B) = 1 - P( A » B) (1)
= 1 – [P(A) + P(B) – P(A « B)] (by addition theorem)
= 1 – P(A) – P(B) + P(A) × P(B) (since A and B are independent)
= [1 – P(A)] – P(B) [1 – P(A)]
= P( A ) × P( B ) (2)

Note From (1) and (2), if follows that when the events A and B are independent,
– –
P(A » B) = 1 – P(A ) × (B).

Worked Example 1(A)

Example 1
A fair coin is tossed 4 times. Define the sample space corresponding to this
random experiment. Also give the subsets corresponding to the following events
and find the respective probabilities:
 Probability Theory 1.7

(a) More heads than tails are obtained.

(b) Tails occur on the even numbered tosses.
S = {HHHH, HHHT, HHTH, HHTT, HTHH, HTHT, HTTH, HTTT,
THHH, THHT, THTH, THTT, TTHH, TTHT, TTTH, TTTT}
(a) Let A be the event in which more heads occur than tails.
Then A = {HHHH, HHHT, HHTH, HTHH, THHH}
(b) Let B the event in which tails occur in the second and fourth tosses.
Then B = {HTHT, HTTT, TTHT, TTTT}
n( A) 5 n( B) 1
P( A) = = ; P ( B) = =
n(S ) 16 n(S ) 4

Example 2
There are 4 letters and 4 addressed envelopes. If the letters are placed in the
envelopes at random, find the probability that (a) none of the letters is in the
correct envelope, and (b) at least 1 letter is in the correct envelope, by explicitly
writing the sample space and the event spaces.
Let the envelopes be denoted by A, B, C and D and the corresponding letters
by a, b, c and d.
S = {(Aa, Bb, Cc, Dd), (Aa, Bb, Cd, Dc), (Aa, Bc, Cb, Dd),
(Aa, Bc, Cd, Db), (Aa, Bd, Cb, Dc), (Aa, Bd, Cc, Db),
(Ab, Ba, Cc, Dd), (Ab, Ba, Cd, Dc), (Ab, Bc, Ca, Dd),
(Ab, Bc, Cd, Da), (Ab, Bd, Ca, Dc), (Ab, Bd, Cc, Da),
(Ac, Ba, Cb, Dd), (Ac, Ba, Cd, Db), (Ac, Bb, Ca, Dd),
(Ac, Bb, Cd, Da), (Ac, Bd, Ca, Db), (Ac, Bd, Cb, Da),
(Ad, Ba, Cb, Dc), (Ad, Ba, Cc, Db), (Ad, Bb, Ca, Dc),
(Ad, Bb, Cc, Da), (Ad, Bc, Ca, Db), (Ad, Bc, Cb, Da)}
where ‘Aa’ means that the letter ‘a’ is placed in the envelope A.
Let E1 denote the event in which none of the letters is in the correct
envelope.
Then E1 = {(Ab, Ba, Cd, Dc), (Ab, Bc, Cd, Da), (Ab, Bd, Ca, Dc),
(Ac, Ba, Cd, Db), (Ac, Bd, Ca, Db), (Ac, Bd, Cb, Da),
(Ad, Ba, Cb, Dc), (Ad, Bc, Ca, Db), (Ad, Bc, Cb, Da)}
Let E2 denote the event in which at least one of the letters is in the correct
envelope.
We note that E2 is the complement of E1. Therefore, E2 consists of all elements
of S except those in E1.
n( E1 ) 9 3 5
P( E1 ) = = = and P( E2 ) = 1 - P( E1 ) =
n(S ) 24 8 8
1.8 Probability, Sta s cs and Random Processes

Example 3
A lot consists of 10 good articles, 4 with minor defects and 2 with major defects.
Two articles are chosen from the lot at random (without replacement). Find the
probability that (a) both are good, (b) both have major defects, (c) at least 1 is
good, (d) at most 1 is good, (e) exactly 1 is good, (f) neither has major defects,
and (g) neither is good.
Although the articles may be drawn one after the other, we can consider that
both articles are drawn simultaneously, as they are drawn without replacement.
No. of ways drawing 2 good articles
(a) P(both are good) =
Total no. of ways of drawing 2 articles
10 C2 3
= =
16 C2 8
(b) P(both have major defects)
No. of ways of drawing 2 articles with major defects
=
Total no. of ways
2 C2 1
= =
16 C2 120
(c) P(at least 1 is good) = P(exactly 1 is good or both are good)
= P(exactly 1 is good and 1 is bad or both are good)
10 C1 ¥ 6 C1 + 10 C2 7
= =
16 C2 8
(d) P(atmost 1 is good) = P(none is good or 1 is good and 1 is bad)
10 C0 ¥ 6 C2 + 10 C1 ¥ 6 C1 5
= =
16 C2 8
(e) P(exactly 1 is good) = P(1 is good and 1 is bad)
10 C1 ¥ 6 C1 1
= =
16 C2 2
(f) P(neither has major defects)
= P(both are non-major defective articles)
14 C2 91
= =
16 C2 120
(g) P(neither is good) = P(both are defective)
6 C2 1
= =
16 C2 8
 Probability Theory 1.9

Example 4
From 6 positive and 8 negative numbers, 4 numbers are chosen at random
(without replacement) and multiplied. What is the probability that the product
is positive?
If the product is to be positive, all the 4 numbers must be positive or all
the 4 must be negative or 2 of them must be positive and the other 2 must be
negative.
No. of ways of choosing 4 positive numbers = 6C4 = 15.
No. of ways of choosing 4 negative numbers = 8C4 = 70.
No. of ways of choosing 2 positive and 2 negative numbers
= 6C2 × 8C2 = 420.
Total no. of ways of choosing 4 numbers from all the 14 numbers
= 14C4 = 1001.
P(the product is positive)
No. of ways by which the product is positive
=
Total no. of ways
15 + 70 + 420 505
= =
1001 1001

Example 5
A box contains tags marked 1, 2, ..., n. Two tags are chosen at random without
replacement. Find the probability that the numbers on the tags will be consecutive
integers.
If the numbers on the tags are to be consecutive integers, they must be chosen
as a pair from the following pairs.
(1, 2); (2, 3); (3, 4); ...; (n – 1, n)
No. of ways of choosing any one pair from the above (n – 1) pairs =
(n – 1) C1 = n – 1.
Total no. of ways of choosing 2 tags from the n tags = nC2.
n -1 2
\ Required probability = =
n(n - 1) n
2

Example 6
If n biscuits are distributed at random among m children, what is the probability
that a particular child receives r biscuits, where r < n?
The first biscuit can be given to any one of the m children, i.e. in m ways.
Similarly, the second biscuit can be given in m ways.
Therefore, 2 biscuits can be given in m2 ways.
1.10 Probability, Sta s cs and Random Processes

Extending, n biscuits can be distributed in mn ways. The r biscuits received by

the particular child can be chosen from the n biscuits in nCr ways. If this child
has got r biscuits, the remaining (n – r) biscuits can be distributed among the
remaining (m – 1) children in (m – 1)n – r ways.
\ No. of ways of distributing in the required manner
= nCr(m – 1)n – r

nCr (m - 1)n -r
\ Required probability =
mn

Example 7
If P(A) = P(B) = P(AB), show that P(A B + A B) = 0 [AB ∫ A « B].
By addition theorem,
P(A » B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB) (1)
From the Venn diagram on page (1.3), it is clear that
A » B = A B + A B + AB
\ P(A » B) = P(A B ) + P( A B) + P(AB) (by probability axiom) (2)
Using the given condition in (1),
P(A » B) = P(AB) (3)
From (2) and (3), P(A B ) + P( A B) = 0
Example 8
If A, B and C are any 3 events such that P(A) = P(B) = P(C) = 1/4, P(A « B) =
P(B « C) = 0; P(C « A) = 1/8. Find the probability that at least 1 of the events
A, B and C occurs.
P(at least one of A, B and C occurs) = P(A » B » C)
P(A » B » C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(A « B)
– P(B « C) – P(C « A) + P(A « B « C) (1)
Since P(A « B) = P(B « C) = 0, P(A « B « C) = 0. Equation (1) becomes
3 1 5
P(A » B » C) = -0-0- =
4 8 8

Example 9
Solve Example 5, if the tags are chosen at random with replacement.
If the tag with ‘1’ is chosen in the first draw, the tag with ‘2’ must be chosen
in the second draw. Probability for each = 1/n.
 Probability Theory 1.11

\ P(‘1’ in the first draw and ‘2’ in the second draw) = 1/n2 (Product theorem)
Similarly, P(‘n’ in the first draw and ‘n – 1’ in the second draw = 1/n2.
If the number drawn first is ‘2’, the number drawn second may be ‘1’ or ‘3’.
Probability of drawing consecutive numbers in this case
1 2 2
= ¥ = 2
n n n
Similarly, when the first number drawn is ‘3’, ‘4’, ... ‘(n – 1)’ probability of
drawing consecutive numbers will be 2/n2.
All the above possibilities are mutually exclusive.
1 1 2 2(n - 1)
\ Required probability = 2
+ 2 + (n - 2) ¥ 2 =
n n n n2

Example 10
A box contains 4 bad and 6 good tubes. Two are drawn out from the box at a time.
One of them is tested and found to be good. What is the probability that the other
one is also good?
Let A = one of the tubes drawn is good and B = the other tube is good.
P(A « B) = P(both tubes drawn are good)
6 C2 1
= =
10 C2 3
Knowing that one tube is good, the conditional probability that the other tube
is also good is required, i.e., P(B/A) is required.
By definition,
P( A « B) 1/3 5
P(B/A) = = =
P( A) 6/10 9

Example 11
Two defective tubes get mixed up with 2 good ones. The tubes are tested, one by
one, until both defectives are found. What is the probability that the last defective
tube is obtained on (a) the second test, (b) the third test, and (c) the fourth test?
Let D represent defective and N represent non-defective tube.
(a) P(Second D in the II test) = P(D in the I test and D in the II test)
= P(D1 « D2), say
= P(D1) × P(D2) (by independence)
2 1 1
= ¥ =
4 3 6
1.12 Probability, Sta s cs and Random Processes

(b) P(second D in the III test) = P(D1 « N2 « D3 or N1 « D2 « D3)

= P(D1 « N2 « D3) + P(N1 « D2 « D3)
2 2 1 2 2 1
= ¥ ¥ + ¥ ¥
4 3 2 4 3 2
1
=
3
(c) P(second D in the IV test) = P(D1 « N2 « N3 « D4) + P(N1 « D2 « N3
« D4) + P(N1 « N2 « D3 « D4)
2 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 1
= ¥ ¥ ¥1+ ¥ ¥ ¥1+ ¥ ¥ ¥1
4 3 2 4 3 2 4 3 2
1
=
2

Example 12
In a shooting test, the probability of hitting the target is 1/2 for A, 2/3 for B and
3/4 for C. If all of them fire at the target, find the probability that (a) none of them
hits the target, and (b) at least one of them hits the target.
Let A ∫ Event of A hitting the target, and so on.
1 1 1
P( A ) = , P( B ) = , P(C ) =
2 3 4
P( A « B « C ) = P( A ) × P( B ) × P( C ) (by independence)
1 1 1 1
= ¥ ¥ =
2 3 4 24
P(at least one hits the target)
= 1 – P(none hits the target)
1 23
=1- =
24 24

Example 13
A and B alternately throw a pair of dice. A wins if he throws 6 before B throws
7 and B wins if he throws 7 before A throws 6. If A begins, show that his chance
of winning is 30/61.
Throwing 6 with 2 dice ∫ Getting 6 as the sum of the numbers shown on the
upper faces of the 2 dice.
5
P(throwing 6 with 2 dice) =
36
1
P(throwing 7 with 2 dice) =
6
 Probability Theory 1.13

Let A ∫ Event of A throwing 6.

Let B ∫ Event of B throwing 7.
A plays in the first, third, fifth, ..., trials.
Therefore, A will win, if he throws 6 in the first trial or third trial or in
subsequent (odd) trials.
\ P(A wins) = P(A or A B A or A B A B A or ...)
= P(A) + P( A B A) + P( A B A B A) + ... (Addition theorem)
2
5 Ê 31 5 ˆ 5 Ê 31 5 ˆ 5
= + ¥ + ¥ ¥ + up to •
36 ÁË 36 6 ˜¯ 36 ÁË 36 6 ˜¯ 36
5/36
= (since the series is an infinite geometric series)
1 - (155/216)
30
=
61

Example 14
Show that 2n – (n + 1) equations are needed to establish the mutual independence
of n events.
n events are mutually independent, if they are totally independent when
considered in sets of 2, 3, ..., n events.
Sets of r events can be chosen from the n events in nCr ways.
To establish total independence of r events, say, A1, A2, ..., Ar chosen in any
one of the nCr ways, we need one equation, namely, P(A1, A2, ..., Ar) = P(A1) ×
P(A2) ... × P(Ar).
Therefore, to establish total independence of all the nCr sets, each of r events,
we need nCr equations.
Therefore, the number of equations required to establish mutual
independence
n
= Â nCr
r =2

= (nC0 + nC1 + nC2 + ... + nCn) – (1 + n)

= (1 + 1)n – (n + 1)
= 2n – (n + 1)

Example 15
Two fair dice are thrown independently. Three events A, B and C are defined as
follows:
(a) Odd face with the first die
(b) Odd face with the second die
1.14 Probability, Sta s cs and Random Processes

(c) Sum of the numbers in the 2 dice is odd. Are the events A, B and C
mutually independent?
3 1 3 1
P(A) = = ; P ( B) = =
6 2 6 2
The outcomes favourable to the event C are (1, 2), (1, 4), (1, 6), (2, 1), (2, 3),
(2, 4), and so on.
1
\ P(C) =
2
1
P(A « B) = P(B « C) = P(A « C) =
4
\ P(A « B) = P(A) P(B), and so on
But P(A « B « C) = 0, since C cannot happen when A and B occur. Therefore
P(A « B « C) π P(A) × P(B) × P(C).
Therefore, the events are pairwise independent, but not mutually independent.
Example 16
If A, B and C are random subsets (events) in a sample space and if they are
pairwise independent and A is independent of (B » C), prove that A, B and C are
mutually independent.
Given P(AB) = P(A) × P(B) (1)
P(BC) = P(B) × P(C) (2)
P(CA) = P(C) × P(A) (3)
P[A(B » C)] = P(A) × P(B » C) (4)
Consider P[A(B » C)] = P(AB » AC)
= P(AB) + P(AC) – P(AB « AC) (by addition theorem)
= P(A) × P(B) + P(A) × P(C) – P(ABC) [by (1) and (3)] (5)
Therefore, from (4) and (5), we get
P(ABC) = P(A) × P(B) + P(A) × P(C) – P(A) × P(B » C)
= P(A) × [P(B) + P(C) – P(B » C)]
= P(A) × P(B « C) (by addition theorem)
= P(A) × P(B) × P(C) [by (2)] (6)
From (1), (2), (3) and (6), the required result follows.

Exercise 1(A)
Part-A (Short-answer Questions)
1. What is a random experiment? Give an example.
2. Give the apriori definition of probability with an example.
3. Give the aposteriori definition of probability with an example.
 Probability Theory 1.15

4. Give the relative frequency definition of probability with an example.

5. Define the sample space and an event associated with a random
experiment with an example.
6. Give the axiomatic definition of probability.
7. State the axioms of probability.
8. What do you infer from the statements P(A) = 0 and P(A) = 1?
9. Define mutually exclusive events with an example.
(Example: Getting an odd number and getting an even number when a
6-faced dice is tossed are 2 mutually exclusive events.)
10. From a bag containing 3 red and 2 black balls, 2 balls are drawn at
random. Find the probability that they are of the same colour.
11. When 2 cards are drawn from a well-shuffled pack of playing cards,
what is the probability that they are of the same suit?
12. When A and B are 2 mutually exclusive events such that P(A) = 1/2 and
P(B) = 1/3, find P(A » B) and P(A « B).
13. If P(A) = 0.29, P(B) = 0.43, find P(A « B ), if A and B are mutually
exclusive.
14. When A and B are 2 mutually exclusive events, are the values P(A) = 0.6
and P(A « B ) = 0.5 consistent? Why?
15. Prove that the probability of an impossible event is zero (or prove) that
P(f) = 0.
16. Prove that P( A ) = 1 – P(A), where A is the complement of A.
17. State addition theorem as applied to any 2 events. Extend it to any
3 events.
18. If P(A) = 3/4, P(B) = 5/8, prove that P(A « B) ≥ 3/8.
19. A card is drawn from a well-shuffled pack of playing cards. What is the
probability that it is either a spade or an ace?
20. The probability that a contractor will get a plumbing contract is 2/3
and the probability that he will get an electric contract is 4/9. If the
probability of getting at least one contract is 4/5, what is the probability
that he will get both?
21. If P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.7 and P(A « B) = 0.3, find P( A « B ).
22. If P(A) = 0.35, P(B) = 0.75 and P(A » B) = 0.95, find P( A » B ).
23. Prove that P(A » B) £ P(A) + P(B). When does the equality hold good?
24. If B Ã A, prove that P(B) £ P(A).
25. Give the definitions of joint and conditional probabilities with examples.
26. Give the definition of conditional probability and deduce the product
theorem of probability.
27. If A Ã B, prove that P(B/A) = 1.
28. If B Ã A, prove that P(B/A) ≥ P(B).
29. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, prove that P(B/A) = 0.
30. If P(A) > P(B), prove that P(A/B) > P(B/A).
31. If A Ã B, prove that P(A/C) £ P(B/C).
1.16 Probability, Sta s cs and Random Processes

32. If P(A) = 1/3, P(B) = 3/4 and P(A » B) = 11/12, find P(A/B) and P(B/A).
33. When are 2 events said to be independent? Give an example for 2
independent events.
34. What is the probability of getting atleast 1 head when 2 coins are tossed?
35. When 2 dice are tossed, what is the probability of getting 4 as the sum of
the face numbers?
36. If the probability that A solves a problem is 1/2 and that for B is 3/4 and
if they aim at solving a problem independently, what is the probability
that the problem is solved?
37. If P(A) = 0.65, P(B) = 0.4 and P(A « B) = 0.24, can A and B independent
events?
38. 15% of a firm’s employees are BE degree holders, 25% are MBA degree
holders and 5% have both the degrees. Find the probability of selecting
a BE degree holder, if the selection is confined to MBAs.
39. In a random experiment, P(A) = 1/12, P(B) = 5/12 and P(B/A) = 1/15,
find P(A » B).
40. What is the difference between total independence and mutual
independence?
41. Can 2 events be simultaneously independent and mutually exclusive?
Explain.
42. If A and B are independent events, prove that A and B are also
independent.
43. If A and B are independent events, prove that A and B are also
independent.
44. If P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.3 and P(A « B) = 0.15, find P(A/ B ).
45. If A and B are independent events, prove that A and B are also
independent.
46. If A and B are independent events, prove that
P(A » B) = 1 – P( A ) × P( B ).
47. A and B toss a fair coin alternately with the understanding that the one
who obtains the head first wins. If A starts, what is his chance of winning?
Part-B
48. Write the sample space associated with the experiment of tossing 3 coins
at a time and the event of getting heads from the first 2 coins. Also find
the corresponding probability.
49. Items coming off a production line are marked defective (D) or non-
defective (N). Items are observed and their condition listed. This is
continued until 2 consecutive defectives are produced or 4 items have
been checked, whichever occurs first. Describe a sample space for this
experiment.
50. An urn contains 2 white and 4 black balls. Two balls are drawn one by
one without replacement. Write the sample space corresponding to this
experiment and the subsets corresponding to the following events.
 Probability Theory 1.17

(a) The first ball drawn is white.

(b) Both the balls drawn are black.
Also find the probabilities of the above events.
51. A box contains three 10-W resistors labelled R1, R2 and R3 and two 50-W
resistors labelled R4 and R5. Two resistors are drawn from this box
without replacement. List all the outcomes of this random experiment as
pairs of resistors. Also list the outcomes associated with the following
events and hence find the corresponding probabilities.
(a) Both the resistors drawn are 10-W resistors.
(b) One 10-W resistor and one 50-W resistor are drawn.
(c) One 10-W resistor is drawn in the first draw and one 50-W resistor
is drawn in the second draw.
52. A box contains 3 white balls and 2 black balls. We remove at random
2 balls in succession. What is the probability that the first removed ball
is white and the second is red?
53. An urn contains 3 white balls, 4 red balls and 5 black balls. Two balls are
drawn from the urn at random. Find the probability that (i) both of them
are of the same colour and (ii) they are of different colours.
54. One integer is chosen at random from the numbers 1, 2, 3, ..., 100. What
is the probability that the chosen number is divisible by (i) 6 or 8 and (ii)
6 or 8 or both?
55. If there are 4 persons A, B, C and D and if A tossed with B, then C tossed
with D and then the winners tossed. This process continues till the prize
is won. What are the probabilities of each of the 4 to win?
56. Ten chips numbered 1 through 10 are mixed in a bowl. Two chips are
drawn from the bowl successively and without replacement. What is the
probability that their sum is 10?
57. A bag contains 10 tickets numbered 1, 2, ..., 10. Three tickets are drawn
at random and arranged in ascending order of magnitude. What is the
probability that the middle number is 5?
58. Two fair dice are thrown independently. Four events A, B, C and D are
defined as follows:
A: Even face with the first dice.
B: Even face with the second dice.
C: Sum of the points on the 2 dice is odd.
D: Product of the points on the 2 dice exceeds 20.
Find the probabilities of the 4 events.
59. A box contains 4 white, 5 red and 6 black balls. Four balls are drawn at
random from the box. Find the probability that among the balls drawn,
there is at least 1 ball of each colour.
60. Four persons are chosen at random from a group consisting of 4 men, 3
women and 2 children. Find the chance that the selected group contains
at least 1 child.
1.18 Probability, Sta s cs and Random Processes

61. A committee of 6 is to be formed from 5 lecturers and 3 professors. If the

members of the committee are chosen at random, what is the probability
that there will be a majority of lecturers in the committee?
62. Twelve balls are placed at random in 3 boxes. What is the probability
that the first box will contain 3 balls?
63. If A and B are any 2 events, show that P(A « B) £ P(A) £ P(A » B) £
P(A) + P(B).
64. A and B are 2 events associated with an experiment. If P(A) = 0.4 and
P(A » B) = 0.7, find P(B) if (i) A and B are mutually exclusive (ii) A and
B are independent.
65. If P(A + B) = 5/6, P(AB) = 1/3 and P( B ) = 1/2, prove that the events A
and B are independent.
66. If A Ã B, P(A) = 1/4 and P(B) = 1/3, find P(A/B) and P(B/A).
67. m objects are selected from n objects (m < n). What is the probability
that the selection contains a particular object that was present in the n
given objects?
68. What is the probability that there will be 53 sundays in (i) a leap year,
and (ii) a non-leap year?
69. If the probability that a communication system has high selectivity is
0.54 and the probability that it will have high fidelity is 0.81 and the
probability that it will have both is 0.18, find the probability that (i) a
system with high fidelity will also have high selectivity, and (ii) a system
with high selectivity will also have high fidelity.
70. An electronic assembly consists of two subsystems A and B. From previous
testing procedures, the following probabilities are assumed to be known:
P(A fails) = 0.20, P(A and B fail) = 0.15 and P(B fails alone) = 0.15.
Evaluate (i) P(A fails alone), and (ii) P(A fails/B has failed).
71. A consignment of 15 tubes contains 4 defectives. The tubes are selected
at random, one by one, and examined. Assuming that the tubes tested are
not put back, what is the probability that the ninth one examined is the
last defective?
72. A card is drawn from a 52-card deck, and without replacing it, a second
card is drawn. The first and second cards are not replaced and a third
card is drawn.
(a) If the first card is a heart, what is the probability of second card
being a heart?
(b) If the first and second cards are hearts, what is the probability that
the third card is the king of clubs?
73. A pair of dice are rolled once. Let A be the event that the first dice has a
1 on it, B the event that the second dice has a 6 on it and C the event that
the sum is 7. Are A, B and C independent?
74. A problem is given to 3 students whose chances of solving it are 1/2,
1/3 and 1/4. What is the probability that (i) only one of them solves the
problem and (ii) the problem solved.
 Probability Theory 1.19

75. A and B alternately cut a pack of cards and the pack is shuffled after each
cut. If A starts and the game is continued until one cuts a diamond, what
is the chance that A wins at his second cut?
76. Players X and Y roll a pair of dice alternately. The player who rolls 11
first wins. If X starts, find his chance of winning.
77. Three persons, A, B and C draw in succession from a bag containing 8
red and 4 white balls until a white ball is drawn. What is the probability
that C draws the white ball?

Theorem of Total Probability

If B1, B2, ..., Bn be a set of exhaustive and mutually exclusive events, and A is
another event associated with (or caused by) Bi, then
n
P(A) = Â P( Bi )P( A /Bi )
i =1

Fig. 1.3
Proof
The inner circle represents the event A. A can occur along with (or due to) B1, B2,
..., Bn that are exhaustive and mutually exclusive.
\ AB1, AB2, ..., ABn are also mutually exclusive, such that
A = AB1, AB2, ..., ABn
\ P(A) = P(S ABi)
= S P(ABi) (since AB1, AB2, ..., ABn are mutually exclusive)
(by addition theorem)
n
= Â P( Bi ) ¥ P( ABi )
i =1

Bayes’ Theorem of Theorem of Probability of Causes

If B1, B2, ..., Bn be a set of exhaustive and mutually exclusive events associated
with a random experiment and A is another event associated with (or caused by)
Bi, then
P( Bi ) ¥ P( A /Bi )
P(Bi/A) = n
, i = 1, 2, ..., n
 P( Bi ) ¥ P( A /Bi )
i =1