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Country Briefs
Pakistan
Reference Date: 06-February-2026
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
• Area planted with 2026 wheat crop estimated at
above-average level
• Above-average cereal production estimated in 2025
• Wheat import requirements in 2025/26 forecast
significantly below five-year average
• Wheat flour prices at near-record levels in
January 2026
• Acute food security improved between April and
July 2025
Area planted with 2026 wheat crop estimated
at above-average level
Planting of the mostly irrigated 2026 wheat crop finalized last
December and harvesting is expected to start in mid-March.
The area planted is estimated above the five-year average,
supported by near-record domestic prices of wheat flour and
adequate soil moisture conditions at planting time. Farmers
were also encouraged to plant wheat by government support
measures, including the distribution of high-yielding seed
varieties and an announcement last October that government
procurement will resume for the 2026 wheat crop after a two-
year suspension, with planned purchase of about 2.5 to 3
million tonnes of wheat grain at the minimum support price.
Despite below-average precipitation amounts between October
and mid-December 2025, vegetation conditions were average to
above average in the main wheat cropping areas due to
sufficient supply of irrigation water. Dry weather conditions
caused some crop losses in Barani rainfed areas, which are
mostly located in the northern parts of Punjab province and
account for about 20 percent of total wheat plantings. However,
in these areas precipitation amounts were close to the average
in the third dekad of December and the third dekad of January
helping replenish soil moisture levels and supporting crop
growth. As of late-January 2026, remote sensing data indicate
satisfactory vegetation conditions in most parts of the country
(ASI map). Overall, the 2026 wheat production will depend on
the performance of the rainy season until April 2026. Abundant
rainfall amounts are needed to support proper crop
development and to replenish main reservoirs that will be used
for irrigating the 2026 main season crops from May onwards.
Above-average cereal production estimated in
2025
The 2025 cropping season finalized last December and the
aggregate 2025 cereal production is estimated at 53 million
tonnes, slightly above the average. Wheat crop production is
estimated at 29 million tonnes, slightly above the average level,
but 8 percent lower year-on-year, mainly reflecting a contraction
in area planted due to low domestic prices at planting time and
the removal of the minimum support price. Paddy production is
estimated at 14 million tonnes, above the five-year average, but
4 percent below the 2024/25 harvest. Despite an above-
average area planted, severe flooding caused crop losses,
particularly in Punjab. Maize crop production is estimated at a
slightly below-average level of 9.5 million tonnes as low farm-
gate prices of maize grain prompted some farmers to shift to
more profitable vegetables and cash crops, including mustard
and pulses.
Wheat import requirements in 2025/26
forecast significantly below five-year average
Wheat import requirements for the 2025/26 marketing year
(April/March) are forecast at about 1.1 million tonnes,
significantly below the five-year average. The reduced import
needs reflect the above-average output obtained in 2025 and
the large carryover stocks from the record production harvested
in 2024. In 2024/25, wheat imports were just about 100 000
tonnes following the introduction, in July 2024, of a ban on
imports of wheat grain and flour aimed at containing further
price declines. With the ban still in effect as of January 2026,
actual imports in 2025/26 may be lower than the forecast import
requirements. In July 2025, the government also imposed a ban
on exports of wheat flour, including flour produced with imported
wheat, wheat products, refined flour and semolina, and the ban
is still in place as of January 2026.
Exports of rice, the country’s major exportable cereal, are
forecast at 4.8 million tonnes in calendar year 2026. Exports of
maize in the 2025/26 marketing year (April/March) are forecast
at an average level of 500 000 tonnes.
Wheat flour prices at near-record level in
January 2026
Domestic prices of wheat flour, the country’s main staple food,
surged between July 2025 and January 2026 by about 50 to
90 percent in most markets, reaching near-record levels, as
seasonal upward pressure was exacerbated by stock losses
and market disruptions caused by floods and landslides in
August and September 2025. In addition, the year-on-year
decline in wheat production in 2025 and strong domestic
demand exerted additional upward pressure on prices.
Acute food security improved between April
and July 2025
According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase
Classification (IPC) analysis , about 10 million people were
estimated to face high levels of acute food insecurity
(IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) between April and July 2025,
down from 11 million people during the November 2024 to
March 2025 period, mostly reflecting the above-average 2025
cereal production. However, severe flooding in 2025 affected at
least 5.8 million people, causing extensive damage to housing
and infrastructures, and losses of livestock and food stocks,
likely worsening acute food insecurity conditions. In addition,
high domestic prices of wheat flour, amid limited livelihood
opportunities are expected to erode purchasing power of the
most vulnerable households limiting their access to food in the
first half of 2026, before the 2026 wheat is harvested next April
and May.
Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this
information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on
the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area
or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet
(CCBS) [Link] .
FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis
(FPMA) Tool [Link] .
FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop
Monitoring [Link] .
Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
(IPC) [Link] .