Probatility with Permutations and Wao T Combinations Learning how to count complex groups and calculate likelihoods. ‘Welcome to this esson on advanced counting ~—- Lesson Goals and probability. inthis presentation, we wil lea sais (TE how to count the total number ofpossibilitiesfor_* Understand Factorials $18 and how theyhelp us count. specficeventand calculate the probability of | * Use Permutations to count arrangements when order mater. that event happening, + Use Combinations to count selections when order does not matter.The Foundation: Understanding Factorials Before we calculate probability, we must learn a specific way to count. We use a symbol called a factorial, which is written as N= 7xX6x5x4x3x2x1 = 5,040 an exclamation point ($!). The factorial of a number is the product of that integer and Multiply the number by every positive integer less than every integer below it. it, down to 1. Note: We define $0! (zero factorial) as equal to 1.Concept 1: Permutations (When Order Matters) The Concept A Permutation is an arrangement of objects where the order is strictly important. If you move an item to a different position, it counts as a completely new arrangement. < GB track GD tack 2 se BD tracks Eicon eee The Formula 7= The total number of items available. T = The number of items we are selecting and arranging. Key Takeaway: Use this when specific positions (1st, 2nd, 3rd) define the result.Guided Example: Probability with Permutations The Problem Tyesha and Liam sign up for an open mic night with 32 total performers. The order is chosen randomly. What is the probability that Tyesha performs 1t and Liam performs 2"4? Step 1: Count Total Outcomes Since the performance order matters, we use factorials. The total number of, ways to arrange 32 performers is 32!. Step 2: Count Favorable Outcomes ‘We want Tyesha in slot 1 and Liam in slot 2. These two spots are fixed. That leaves 30 other performers to arrange in the remaining 30 spots. ‘The number of ways to arrange the rest is 30!. Step 3: The Probability Display the calculation clearly: ! ( Probability = Favorable Outcomes _ 30! _ Total Outcomes 32! 32x 31x 30! Result: The probability is approximately 0.1%. 82 = 82x 81x B0x...x1 [retain] rest oma] (30! ways)) pealccve Ble 32x31 992Concept 2: Permutations with Repetition ecitton =. ‘The Twist: Sometimes, the group of objects we are arranging items that look exactly the same. Imagine the word ‘LEVEL. If you swap the two''U's, the word looks exactly the same. ‘The standard permutation formula counts this swap as anew arrangement, which is incorrect. We must remove these Sa duplicates. Resulting Arrangement: LEVEL (Identical) The Formula ‘The Adjusted Formula: To find the number of distinguishable permutations, we divide the total factorial by the factorials of the repeated items. nl Permutations = | i! X Ta! X ... Explanation: We divide by the factorial of each repeated group (lke the two "L's and two "E's in LEVEL) to “cancel out" the arrangements that look identical.Guided Example: Repetition in a Game Show __-« Saee A contestant is given five number tiles: 2, 2, 5, 5, and 8. They must arrange them to guess the price of a car. ‘What is the probability they arrange the correct price of $25,852? Step 1: Count Total Arrangements Step 2: Count Favorable Outcomes Total tiles (n) = 5. There is only 1 correct price ($25,852). Repeated 2s = 2 tiles (2!). Repeated 5s = 2 tiles (21). . ee Calculation: Step 3: The Probability 5! 120 Bee og eon = or Probability = —. @xm 4 -% v= 30 ‘There are 30 distinct ways to arrange these numbers.Concept 3: Combinations (Order Does Not Matter) Concept Nar ‘A Combination is a selection of objects aa where the order is not important. Cr Fruit Salad: Choosing Apple then Banana is the same salad as choosing Banana then Apple. The Formula Because order doesn’t matter, there are fewer combinations than permutations. We divide by an extra factor (r!) to remove the order. This formula counts how many groups of size r can be created from a total of n items.Comparison: Permutations vs. Combinations To solve any problem, first ask: “Does the order change the outcome?” Permutations (Order Matters) Combinations (Order Does Not Matter) + Arrange * Select * Order + Choose + Line up mA * Group * Assign Roles Bey? + Team Code 1-2-3 is distinct from 3-2-1. Mushroom & Pepperoni is the same as Pepperoni & Mushroom. piles (Larger result) nCr (Smaller result)Guided Example: Probability with Combinations The Problem Step 1: Total Outcomes ‘Apentagon has points A, C,E,G,and.J. We choose 3 points from 10 total points on the shape. If3 points are chosen randomly, what is io! the probability that they all lie on the Total = 10C: BToomcsribleerounes same line segment? 103 = Car xl) Pr Came Step 2: Favorable Outcomes Analysis By looking at the pentagon, we can see 5 specific lines where 3 Does order matter? No. Choosing points points sit together. A,C, and E is the same geometric group as choosing E, C, and A. Step 3: The Probability ‘We use Combinations. The probability is the ratio of favorable outcomes to total outcomes. Probability = ==> o 2, which simplifies to =.Strategy: How to Solve Probability Problems Follow these four steps to solve any problem in this lesson. 1. Identify Ask “Does order matter?” YES > Permutation (P) 2. Count Total Calculate the total possible outcomes (Sample Space) 1S using your formula. > Combination (C) 3. Count Favorable ivide Calculate the FE . specific outcomes Ratio that match what Total you are looking for. Favorable Outcomes P(Event) = Total Possible OutcomesPractice A: Student Council Speeches The Problem fied ‘There are 7 finalists for class president. The order of speeches is ‘Alan Shepherd chosen randomly. What is the probability that Denny speaks first, Kelli speaks ‘Cilarninade Hudson: second, and Chaminade speaks third? Denny Murano Step 1: Identify Kelli Baker The problem asks for a specific speaking “order. This is a Permutation. Tanika Johnson ‘Jerome Murdock Total Arrangements = 7! = 5,040 Marlene Lindeman Step 3: Calculate Probability Step 2: Count Outcomes The probability is the ratio of favorable outcomes to We fix the first 3 specific people. There are 4 people total outcomes. left to arrange in the remaining spots. 24 1 Probability = 5,040 210 Favorable Arrangements = 4! = 24Practice B: The Trophy Display The Problem: from grades 1 through 9 are the ones chosen? Step 1: Identify We are choosing a group to display. The problem does not say the order on the shelf matters, only which ones are chosen. This is a Combination (C). Step 2: Count Total Outcomes Choose 9 from 15. Calculate 15Co. Calculation: 45Co = eT 5,005 total possible groups. Taryn has 15 soccer trophies but only a= has room to display 9 on a shelf. If she chooses them at random, what is the probability that the trophies Extra Trophies Step 3: Count Favorable Outcomes There is only 1 specific group that contains exactly trophies from grades 1 through 9. Step 4: Divide (Calculate Probability) The probability is the ratio of favorable outcomes to total outcomes. Probability = 5005Quick Check: Permutation or Combination? Read the scenario and decide which method to use. Creating a 4-digit PIN code. Answer: Permutation Reason: Order of numbers matters (1234 # 4321). Identifying Gold, Silver, and 9 Bronze winners in a race. Answer: Permutation Reason: Rank/Order defines the outcome. Choosing 3 friends for a concert. Answer: Combination Reason: The group is the same regardless of invite order. Selecting 4 books to pack for (SS) vacation. ( e \ Answer: Combination Reason: Order in the bag does not matter.Review: Why do the formulas differ? Why is the Combination formula ,,C,. almost the same as the Permutation formula ,P,, but divided by an extra r!? Permutations: Combinations: The Difference: Order Matters Order Does Not Matter Removing Duplicates ooG« : nl 2 P=) rl ooe- Gee (Oe o0G* same Group (8) ‘The Permutation formula counts every ‘The Combination formula treats We divide by r! (the factorial of different order as a unique result all those diferent orders asthe the group size) to remove all the (e.g., A-B-C is different from C-B-A). same group. duplicate versions of the same ‘group. This is why there are always fewer combinations than permutations. Refer to the logic in lmustasockinsConclusion You have learned to use advanced counting methods to calculate accurate probabilities. Factorials ($!): Use to count total arrangements. Permutations: Use when specific order creates a new outcome. Combinations: Use when only the selected group matters. Favorable Outcomes Total Outcomes Probability: Ratio of When faced with a complex problem, pause and ask: “Does the order matter?” The answer to that question is the key to finding the correct solution.