PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

TOPIC: The Multiplication Rules The Multiplication Rules

The multiplication rules can be used to find the probability of two or more events that occur in sequence. For
example, if you toss a coin and then roll a die, you can find the probability of getting a head on the coin and a 4 on
the die. These two events are said to be independent since the outcome of the first event (tossing a coin) does not
affect the probability outcome of the second event (rolling a die).

Two events A and B are independent events if the fact that A occurs does not affect the probability of B occurring.

Here are other examples of independent events:

• Rolling a die and getting a 6, and then rolling a second die and getting a 3.
• Drawing a card from a deck and getting a queen, replacing it, and drawing a second card and getting a queen.

Multiplication Rule 1

When two events are independent, the probability of both occurring is

P (A and B) = P(A)⋅P(B)

Probability With Replacement

■ 'With Replacement' means you put the balls back into the box so that the number of balls to choose from is
the same for any draws when removing more than 1 ball.

Example:

A bag contains 5 green marbles, 2 red marbles, and 8 blue marbles. What is the probability that by drawing
and then replacing the drawn marble, a person picks a green marble, then a blue marble, then a red marble?

Answer: (5/15)(8/15)(2/15)=16/675

ACTIVITY 1:

1. A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the probability of getting a head on the coin and a 4 on the die.
2. A card is drawn from a deck and replaced; then a second card is drawn. Find the probability of getting a
queen and then an ace.
3. An urn contains 3 red balls, 2 blue balls, and 5 white balls. A ball is selected and its color noted. Then it is
replaced. A second ball is selected and its color noted. Find the probability of each of these.

a. Selecting 2 blue balls

b. Selecting 1 blue ball and then 1 white ball

c. Selecting 1 red ball and then 1 blue ball

When the outcome or occurrence of the first event affects the outcome or occurrence of the second event in such a
way that the probability is changed, the events are said to be dependent events.

Probability Without Replacement

■ "Without replacement" means that you don't put the ball or balls back in the box, so that the number of
balls in the box gets fewer as each ball is removed. This changes the probabilities.
Here are some examples of dependent events:

• Drawing a card from a deck, not replacing it, and then drawing a second card.
• Selecting a ball from an urn, not replacing it, and then selecting a second ball.
• Parking in a no-parking zone and getting a parking ticket.

Example:

Given a standard deck of cards, what is the probability that you could draw three hearts in a row if you don't replace
the cards after they are drawn?

ANSWER: (13/52)(12/51)(11/50)=11/850

ACTIVITY 2:

1. Three cards are drawn from an ordinary deck and not replaced. Find the probability of these events.

[Link] 3 jacks

[Link] an ace, a king, and a queen in order

[Link] a club, a spade, and a heart in order

[Link] 3 clubs

2. A bag of marbles has 10 green marbles, 20 blue marbles, and 30 red [Link] one at a time
without replacement, what is the probability of drawing two red marbles and then two blue marbles?
 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

TOPIC: RANDOM VARIABLE

➢ DEFINITION: A random variable is a rule or function that assigns a numerical value to the outcomes of a
random experiment.

It is called random because the value depends on chance.

It is called a variable because the value can change from trial to trial.

Examples:

Tossing 3 coins → number of heads

Rolling a die → the number shown

Choosing a student → their height in centimeters

A random variable helps us convert outcomes into numbers so we can analyze probability mathematically.

➢ Types of Random Variables

• Discrete Random Variable - A discrete random variable takes on countable values.

Characteristics:

❖ Whole numbers
❖ Countable (finite or infinite but countable)
❖ Probabilities can be listed in a table

•
Continuous Random Variable - A continuous random variable takes on uncountably infinite values
over an interval.
Characteristics:
❖ Decimal or real numbers
❖ Infinite possibilities
❖ Probabilities described using densities, not individual values

ACTIVITY 1:

1. Classify the following random variables as discrete or continuous.

a. The weight of the professional wrestlers.
b. The number of winners in lotto for each day.
c. The area of lots in an exclusive subdivision.
d. The speed of a car.
e. The number of dropouts in a school per district

➢ DEFINITION: A discrete probability distribution consists of the values a random variable can assume and the
corresponding probabilities of the values. The probabilities are determined theoretically or by observation.

EXAMPLE: Construct a probability distribution for rolling a single die.

Solution: Since the sample space is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and each outcome has a probability of 1/6, the distribution
is as shown.
HOW TO CONSTRUCT A PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION TABLE

Example 1. Suppose you are to test three random eggplants from a harvest to see if there are worms in it.
You want to find out the number of eggplants attacked by worms. Use W to represent if there is a worm attack in an
eggplant and N if there is none.

STEP 1: Define the Random Variable

Decide what the random variable represents.

W = number of eggplants attacked by worms

STEP 2: List All Possible Values of W

W = 0,1,2,3

STEP 3: LIST ALL THE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

STEP 4: Find the Probability of Each Value and Make a Table

ACTIVITY 2: Determine whether each distribution is a probability distribution.

1.

2. Suppose two coins are tossed and we are interested in determining the number of tails that will come out.
Use T to represent the number of tails that will come out. Determine the values of the random variable T and
construct a probability distribution table.

3. A pair of dice is rolled. Let X be the random variable representing the sum of the number of dots on the top
faces. Construct a probability distribution table.

HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION – A probability distribution used when you’re dealing with scenarios
where you’re selecting a certain number of items from a larger group, but without replacement.

ACTIVITY 3: A box contains 24 transistors, 4 of which are defective. Four are sold at random without
replacement. Construct a probability distribution table and find the following probabilities.
a. Exactly 2 are defective.
b. All are defective.
c. None is defective.
d. At least 1 is defective.
 STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

TOPIC: MEAN, STANDARD DEVIATION, AND VARIANCE OF A RANDOM VARIABLE

➢ Mean of a Discrete Random Variable

The Mean µ of a discrete random variable is the central value or average of its corresponding probability mass
function. It is also called the Expected Value. It is computed using the formula:

µ = ∑ 𝑋𝑃(x)

where X is the random variable and P(x) is the probability of the outcome.

Example:

Find the mean of the random variable Y representing the number of red color chocolates per 160-gram pack of
colored chocolate packages that have the following probability distribution.

➢ Variance and Standard Deviation of a Random Variable

The variance and standard deviation are two values that describe how scattered or spread out the scores are from
the mean value of the random variable. The variance, denoted as 𝜎 2 , is determined using the formula:

𝜎 2 = ∑[(𝑥 2 )(𝑃(𝑥)] − 𝜇2

The standard deviation σ is the square root of the variance, thus,

𝜎 = √∑[(𝑥 2 )(𝑃(𝑥)] − 𝜇2

Example: The number of cars sold per day at a local car dealership, along with its corresponding probabilities, is
shown in the succeeding table. Compute the variance and the standard deviation of the probability distribution

To Solve for Standard Deviation:

Get the square root of the variance

𝜎 2 = ∑[(𝑥 2 )(𝑃(𝑥)] − 𝜇2 = 1.56

σ = √1.56 = 1.25

So, the variance of the number of cars sold per day is 1.56, and the standard deviation is 1.25.
ACTIVITY:

1. Determine the mean or expected value of each Random Variable.

2-3 Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation

4. When three coins are tossed once, the probability distribution for the random variable X representing the
number of heads that occur is given below. Compute the variance and standard deviation of the probability
distribution.
 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
TOPIC: NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

➢ DEFINITION: In a normal distribution, data is symmetrically distributed with no skew. When plotted on a
graph, the data follows a bell shape, with most values clustering around a central region and tapering off as
they go further away from the center. Normal distributions are also called Gaussian distributions or bell
curves because of their shape.

What are the properties of normal distributions?

Normal distributions have key characteristics that are

easy to spot in graphs:

• The mean, median, and mode are the same.

• The distribution is symmetric about the mean—half

the values fall below the mean and half above the mean.

• The distribution can be described by two values: the

mean and the standard deviation.

➢ EMPIRICAL RULE (68-95-99.7%)

This rule can be used as a rough estimate of the outcome of the impending data to be collected and
analyzed.

The empirical rule, or the 68-95-99.7 rule, tells you where most of your values lie in a normal distribution:
• Around 68% of values are within 1 standard deviation from the mean.
• Around 95% of values are within 2 standard deviations from the mean.
• Around 99.7% of values are within 3 standard deviations from the mean.

ACTIVITY 1:

Apply the empirical rule to answer the following:

1. Given that 𝜇 = 100 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝜎 = 15

a. 𝑃(𝑋 < 115)
b. 𝑃(𝑋 > 130)
c. 𝑃(𝑋 < 85)
2. A continuous random variable X is normally distributed with a mean of 45 and a standard deviation of 6.
Illustrate a normal curve and find the probability of the following:
a. 𝑃(39 < 𝑋 < 51)
b. 𝑃(𝑋 > 45)
c. 𝑃(33 < 𝑋 < 63)
d. 𝑃(𝑋 < 39)

➢ The standard normal distribution, denoted by Z, is also a normal distribution with a mean of 0 and a
standard deviation of 1. Since the normal distribution can have different values for its mean and standard
deviation, it can be standardized by setting µ = 0 and the 𝜎= 1.
 ➢ Z table
The outermost column and row represent the z-values. The first two digits of the z-value are found in the
leftmost column, and the last digit (hundredth place) is found on the first row.

Example:
1. P(Z < 1.67)
ANSWER: 0.95254 or 95.254%.
2. P(Z > -0.65)
ANSWER: 0.74215 or 74.215%

ACTIVITY 2:
A. Compute the following probabilities using the standard normal curve. Construct a curve then shade the
region corresponding to the area.

B. Find the probability of the area between z = -1.25 and 2.19, which can be expressed as
P(-1.25 < Z < 2.19), read as the probability that Z is greater than -1.25 but less than 2.19.

➢ STANDARDIZATION OF NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

The z-score is a crucial component in the standard normal distribution. This allows us to describe a given set
of data by finding the z-scores.

Example: A random variable X has a mean of 6 and a standard deviation of 2. Find the corresponding z-score for

x = 11. Ans. z = 2.5

ACTIVITY 3:

1. Complete the table by converting the given values into z-scores. Then find the corresponding area to the left
using the z-table.

2. The scores in the summative test of 11- STEM B are normally distributed with a mean of 65 and a standard
deviation of 12. Find the probability that some students got a score below 40.
3. The height (in meters) of grade 11 students in section A follows a normal distribution with a mean of 1.6 and
a standard deviation of 0.3. Find the probability that students chosen at random have a height greater than
1.75.
 STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

Sampling Distribution of the Sample Means

The sampling distribution of the sample mean is the distribution of all the means of samples taken from a
population. It's used to make inferences and conclusions about a population.

How it's calculated

1. To calculate the sampling distribution of the sample mean, you take repeated random samples of a given size
from a population.

2. You then find the mean of each sample.

3. The mean of all the sample means is equal to the population mean.

Example 1: A population consists of the five numbers 2, 3, 6, 10, and 12. Consider samples of size 2 without
repetition that can be drawn from this population.

A. How many possible samples can be drawn?

To answer this, use the formula NCn (the number of N objects taken n at a time), where N is the total
population and n is the sample to be taken out of the population, In this case, N= 5 and n= 2
5C2 = 10 So, there are 10 possible samples to be drawn.

B. Construct the sampling distribution of sample means. List all the possible outcomes and get the mean of
every sample.
SAMPLE SAMPLE MEAN
2,3 2.5
2,6 4
2,10 6
2,12 7
3,6 4.5
3,10 6.5
3,12 7.5
6,10 8
6,12 9
10,12 11

Observe that the means vary from sample to sample. Thus, any mean based on the sample drawn from a
population is expected to assume different values for samples.

C. This time, let us create a probability distribution of the sample means, which is called the sampling
distribution of the sample means.

SAMPLE MEAN PROBABILITY

2.5 1/10
4 1/10
4.5 1/10
6 1/10
6.5 1/10
7 1/10
7.5 1/10
8 1/10
9 1/10
11 1/10
As you may have noticed, the mean of the sampling distribution of the sample means 𝜇𝑥̅ = 𝜇 is equal to the
population mean, which is 6.6.
Example 1: A population consists of the five numbers 2, 3, 6, 10, and 12. Consider samples of size 2 with repetition
that can be drawn from this population.

SAMPLE SAMPLE MEAN SAMPLE SAMPLE MEAN

2,2 2 6,10 8
2,3 2.5 6,12 9
2,6 4 10,2 6
2,10 6 10,3 6.5
2,12 7 10,6 8
3,2 2.5 10,10 10
3,3 3 10,12 11
3,6 4.5 12,2 7
3,10 6.5 12,3 7.5
3,12 7.5 12,6 9
6,2 4 12,10 11
6,3 4.5 12,12 12
6,6 6

SAMPLE MEAN PROBABILITY

2 1/25
2.5 2/25
3 1/25
4 2/25
4.5 2/25
6 3/25
6.5 2/25
7 2/25
7.5 2/25
8 2/25
9 2/25
10 1/25
11 2/25
12 1/25

ACTIVITY: Refer to the examples above as a guide.

1. Construct a sampling distribution of the sample mean for the set of data below.

86 88 90 95 98

Consider a sample size of 3 that can be drawn from a population without repetition. Verify that 𝜇𝑥̅ = 𝜇 .
Construct a histogram.
 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
TOPIC: Point and Interval Estimation

SITUATION: A survey by the Roper Organization found that 45% of the people who were offended by a television
program would change the channel, while 15% would turn off their television sets. The survey further stated that the
margin of error is 3 percentage points, and 4000 adults were interviewed.
1. How do these estimates compare with the true population percentages?
2. What is meant by a margin of error of 3 percentage points?
3. Is the sample of 4000 large enough to represent the population of all adults who watch television in the United
States?

One aspect of inferential statistics is estimation, which is the process of estimating the value of a parameter from
information obtained from a sample.

SITUATION: Suppose a college president wishes to estimate the average age of students attending classes this
semester. The president could select a random sample of 100 students and find the average age of these students,
say, 22.3 years. From the sample mean, the president could infer that the average age of all the students is 22.3
years. This type of estimate is called a point estimate.

A point estimate is a specific numerical value estimate of a parameter. The best point estimate of the population
mean 𝜇 is the sample mean 𝑋̅.

Formulas:
∑𝒙
Sample mean ̅
𝒙= 𝒏
̅ )𝟐
∑(𝒙−𝒙
Sample standard deviation 𝒔 =
𝒏−𝟏

Example:
A researcher wants to estimate the average grade of all Grade 11 students from the General Academic Strand
(GAS) of a certain senior high school in Bangued, Abra. He then took the grades obtained in the last quarter.

Student 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Grade 88 90 84 82 79 83 88 85 92 81
Estimate the average grade of all GAS students in the last quarter, as well as the variance of these grades.

The sample mean will be, for the most part, somewhat different from the population mean due to sampling error.
Therefore, you might ask a second question: How good is a point estimate? The answer is that there is no way of
knowing how close a particular point estimate is to the population mean. This answer places some doubt on the
accuracy of point estimates. For this reason, statisticians prefer another type of estimate, called an interval estimate.

An interval estimate of a parameter is an interval or a range of values used to estimate the parameter. This estimate
may or may not contain the value of the parameter being estimated.

The confidence level of an interval estimate of a parameter is the probability that the interval estimate will contain
the parameter, assuming that a large number of samples are selected and that the estimation process on the same
parameter is repeated.

A confidence interval is a specific interval estimate of a parameter determined by using data obtained from a sample
and by using the specific confidence level of the estimate.
The formula for the confidence interval estimate of population mean (µ) with known population variance is:

𝝈 𝝈
̅ − |𝒛𝜶
𝒙 ̅ + |𝒛𝜶
|<𝝁<𝒙 |
𝟐 √𝒏 𝟐 √𝒏

The formula for the confidence interval estimate of the population mean (µ) with unknown population variance is:
𝑠 𝑠
𝑥̅ − |𝑡𝛼 | < 𝜇 < 𝑥̅ + |𝑡𝛼 |
2 √𝑛 2 √𝑛
Example:

̅=35
1. Compute the 95% interval estimate of μ given s=3.5, n=20, and 𝒙

Answer: 𝟑𝟑. 𝟑𝟔 < 𝝁 < 𝟑𝟔. 𝟔𝟒

̅=65
2. Compute the 90% interval estimate of μ given σ=5, n=45, and 𝒙

Answer: 63.77 < 𝜇 < 66.23

The maximum error of the estimate (also called the margin of error) is the maximum likely difference between the
point estimate of a parameter and the actual value of the parameter.

Example 1:

A teacher is interested in estimating the average score of his

students in his subject. He has access to the entire population data,
and he knows that the population variance is 25. He randomly selects a
sample of 50 students from this population and calculates their
average score, which is 75. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the
population mean.

Solution:
5 5
75 − 1.96 ( ) < 𝜇 < 75 + 1.96 ( )
√50 √50
73.61 < 𝜇 < 76.39
Example 2:

Ten randomly selected people were asked how long they slept at night. The mean time was 7.1 hours, and
the standard deviation was 0.78 hour. Find the 95% confidence interval of the mean time. Assume the variable is
normally distributed.
 STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

Estimation for Population Proportion

Introduction to Population Proportion

A population proportion is the fraction or percentage of a population with a certain characteristic. It is denoted by p and
is often estimated using a sample proportion 𝑝̂ .

Sample Proportion

The sample proportion is used to estimate the true population proportion p.

𝑥
It is calculated as: 𝑝̂ = 𝑛

x = number of successes or the number of sample elements that possess the desired characteristics

n = total sample size

Example: Suppose a random sample of 500 adults responded to a yes or no question. If 420 responded yes, then
420
𝑝̂ = = 0.84
500
Confidence Interval for Population Proportion

A confidence interval provides a range of values within which the population proportion will likely fall. It is given by:

𝑝̂(1−𝑝̂)
𝑝̂ ± 𝑧𝛼/2 √ 𝑛

where:

𝑝̂(1−𝑝̂)
E = 𝑧𝛼/2 √ 𝑛

n = sample size

𝑝̂ = sample proportion

NOTE: Z-value is used when dealing with proportions because the sampling distribution of the sample proportion
𝑝̂ follows a normal distribution (by the Central Limit Theorem), especially when the sample size is large (n𝑝̂ ≥5 and
n(1−𝑝̂ )≥5)

Example: Given that the sample size is 500 and the sample proportion is 0.84, estimate the population proportion with

1. 85% confidence level

Answer: 0.816 < 𝑝̂ < 0.864
Interpretation: We are 85% confident that the population proportion lies between 0.816 and 0.864
2. 94% confidence level
Answer: 0.809 < 𝑝̂ < 0.871
Interpretation: We are 94% confident that the population proportion lies between 0.809 and 0.871
3. 97% confidence level
Answer: 0.804 < 𝑝̂ < 0.876
Interpretation: We are 97% confident that the population proportion lies between 0.804 and 0.876
Factors Affecting Confidence Interval Width

Sample size (n): A larger sample size decreases the margin of error, making the confidence interval narrower.
Confidence level: A higher confidence level results in a wider confidence interval.

Practice Problems

1. A survey finds that 200 out of 500 people support a new policy. Construct a 90% confidence interval for the
population proportion.
2. Out of 1,000 voters, 580 say they will vote for Candidate A. Find a 99% confidence interval for the proportion of
voters who support Candidate A.
3. A study finds that 45 out of 150 patients experienced side effects from a new medication. Calculate a 95%
confidence interval for the proportion of patients who may experience side effects.
4. A biologist wants to estimate the proportion of male rats. He collected 60 rats from the rice field and found that
38% were males. Compute the 93% confidence interval of the proportion of male rats.