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This study analyzes spatiotemporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC) at Obafemi Awolowo University from 1986 to 2024, revealing a significant expansion of developed areas and a continuous decline in thick vegetation. Using GIS mapping and CA-Markov modeling, the research forecasts further decreases in natural ecosystems and an increase in human-altered landscapes over the next decade. The findings highlight the urgent need for effective conservation strategies to address the ongoing environmental degradation.

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5 views2 pages

Abstract 2

This study analyzes spatiotemporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC) at Obafemi Awolowo University from 1986 to 2024, revealing a significant expansion of developed areas and a continuous decline in thick vegetation. Using GIS mapping and CA-Markov modeling, the research forecasts further decreases in natural ecosystems and an increase in human-altered landscapes over the next decade. The findings highlight the urgent need for effective conservation strategies to address the ongoing environmental degradation.

Uploaded by

x8f6s8yfwh
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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1 Spatiotemporal Changes in Land Use Land Cover within the Obafemi

2 Awolowo University Estate, Southwestern Nigeria


3 Adenike Olayungbo1*, Moshood Olayiwola1, Yetunde Taiwo1, Oyeseyi
4 Oyelade1, Rachael Bamigboye1, Ayodeji Olayemi1, Chinyere Nwokeocha1,
5 Benjamin Ogunfolakan1
6 1
A.G. Leventis Museum of Natural History, Obafemi Awolowo University,
7 Ife, Nigeria
8 Corresponding author’s email:
9 aolayungbo@[Link]
10 ABSTRACT
11 In order to provide empirical evidence toward conservation of the Obafemi
12 Awolowo University (OAU) ecosystem, this study analyses spatiotemporal
13 changes in land-use and land-cover (LULC) from 1986 to 2024 and forecast
14 future trends for the next 10 years. Relatively little works have been published
15 on LULC patterns in OAU; hence, this work provides crucial insight towards
16 a holistic and balanced approach to conservation and environmental
17 management. This study employs Geographic Information Systems (GIS)
18 mapping to analyse changes in LULC in OAU from 1986 to 2024 and forecast
19 future trends using multitemporal Landsat images to measure the trend and
20 magnitude of change. CA-Markov modelling was employed to project the
21 direction of future changes in order to evaluate the implications of land cover
22 changes in OAU. The overall trendline analysis revealed continuous
23 expansion in developed areas from 562.62 ha (28.8%) in 1986 to 654.99 ha
24 (33.52%) in 2024, conversely, thick vegetation reduced continuously from
25 373.13 ha (19%) in 1986 to 146.14 ha (7.47%) in 2024. There were
26 significantly fluctuations in area covered by water, rock outcrops and light
27 vegetation. Between 1986 and 2024, water and thick vegetation decreased
28 annually at the rate of 0.96% and 1.48%, respectively while developed area,
29 outcrops and light vegetation increased annually at the rate of 0.43%, 2.42%
30 and 0.21%, respectively. The Markov analysis predict that between 2024 and
31 2034, water, outcrops, thick vegetation and light vegetation will decrease
32 significantly by 12.1%, 0.79%, 10.8% & 0.5%, respectively while developed
33 area will increase by 4.12%.
34 Nearly four decades, there has been significantly continuous land expansion,
35 with thick vegetation steadily disappearing. This also indicates reduction in
36 natural ecosystems (water and dense forest) and an increase in human-altered
37 or secondary vegetation and land development. The predictions indicate a
2

38 continued trend from past decades which implies the possibility of natural
39 land cover shrinking while developed areas expand with decline in ecological
40 stability and environmental degradation. Almost four decades, OAU has lost
41 56.1% of its original vegetation to anthropogenic activities, which reflects that
42 understanding these changes/trends is crucial for effective decision making
43 and policy formulation for sustainable utilization and management of
44 ecosystem.
45
46 Keywords: Land-use/land-cover change, anthropogenic factors, ecological
47 changes, GIS mapping, OAU landscape, spatiotemporal changes

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