MIDTERM COMPLETE NOTES: PROBABILITY & STATISTICS
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WEEK 1 — INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY & STATISTICS
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Introduction:
Statistics = collecting, organizing, analyzing, interpreting data.
Probability = mathematics of uncertainty.
Population = entire group.
Sample = subset of population.
Types of Variables:
- Qualitative: categories (gender, color)
- Quantitative:
* Discrete (countable)
* Continuous (measurable)
Descriptive vs Inferential:
Descriptive summarizes data.
Inferential draws conclusions about population.
Raw (Ungrouped) Data: 2,4,6,7,9,3...
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MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY (UNGROUPED)
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Mean: mean = (Σx)/n
Median: middle value after sorting.
Mode: value with highest frequency.
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MEASURES OF VARIATION
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Range = max - min
Variance: s^2 = Σ(x − mean)^2 / n
Standard Deviation: s = sqrt(s^2)
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MEASURES OF POSITION
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Percentile position = (P/100)(n+1)
Quartiles: Q1 (25%), Q2 (50%), Q3 (75%)
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FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS (GROUPED)
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Includes class intervals, frequency, midpoint = (lower+upper)/2.
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GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATIONS
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Histogram, Frequency Polygon, Ogive, Pie Chart.
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WEEK 3 — GROUPED DATA ANALYSIS
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Mean (Grouped): mean = Σ(f*x) / Σf
Median (Grouped):
Median = L + [ (N/2 - cf) / f ] * h
Mode (Grouped):
Mode = L + [ (f1 - f0) / (2f1 - f0 - f2) ] * h
Variance (Grouped): s^2 = Σ f(x - mean)^2 / N
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WEEK 4 — SYMMETRY, SKEWNESS, BOX PLOT
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Symmetric: mean = median = mode
Positive Skew: mean > median > mode
Negative Skew: mean < median < mode
Box Plot:
Five-number summary: min, Q1, median, Q3, max
IQR = Q3 - Q1
Outliers: < Q1 - 1.5(IQR) or > Q3 + 1.5(IQR)
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WEEK 4–5 — PROBABILITY BASICS
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Probability: P(A) = favorable outcomes / total outcomes
Sample Space: all possible outcomes
Events: subsets of sample space
Operations:
Union: A ∪ B
Intersection: A ∩ B
Complement: A'
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WEEK 5 — COUNTING, PERMUTATIONS, COMBINATIONS
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Multiplication Rule: total = m * n
Permutations (order matters):
P(n,r) = n! / (n-r)!
Combinations (order does not matter):
C(n,r) = n! / (r!(n-r)!)
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WEEK 6 — LAWS OF PROBABILITY
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Addition Law:
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)
Multiplication Law:
P(A ∩ B) = P(A|B) * P(B)
Conditional Probability:
P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B)
Total Probability:
P(A) = Σ P(A|Bi)*P(Bi)
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WEEK 7 — BAYES THEOREM & RANDOM VARIABLES
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Bayes Theorem:
P(B|A) = [P(A|B)P(B)] / [P(A|B)P(B) + P(A|B')P(B')]
Random Variables:
Discrete: countable (e.g., heads in coin toss)
Continuous: measurable.
Example Probability Distribution:
x: 0,1,2,3
P(x): 0.125, 0.375, 0.375, 0.125