CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW
2.0 Introduction
This chapter reviews existing literature on climate change and its influence on wildlife-
based tourism, with specific reference to tourism performance in nature-based destinations.
The review is structured in line with the study objectives and synthesizes theoretical and
empirical works on rainfall variability, rising temperatures, and extreme weather events,
examining how these climatic factors affect wildlife populations, ecological integrity,
tourism resources, and overall tourism performance.
Globally, climate change is recognized as one of the most significant threats to natural
ecosystems and climate-sensitive economic sectors, particularly tourism. Tourism is
inherently dependent on environmental stability, climatic comfort, and the quality of
natural attractions (Siddiqui & Imran, 2019; Gössling & Scott, 2025). Wildlife-based
tourism, which relies on predictable ecological processes and outdoor experiences, is
especially vulnerable to changes in temperature, precipitation, and weather extremes.
Climate constitutes a critical determinant in tourists’ destination choice, shaping
perceptions of comfort, safety, and attractiveness (Ngxongo et al., 2021).
Climate science confirms that warming has intensified temperature variability and altered
rainfall regimes globally (IPCC, 2023). East Africa has experienced increasing drought
frequency despite projections of wetter conditions (Conway et al., 2021; Asefi-Najafabady et
al., 2023). In Kenya, average temperatures have risen by over 1°C since the 1960s (Nyong et
al., 2023), with protected areas such as the Maasai Mara increasingly exposed to prolonged
droughts and extreme rainfall events (Ogutu et al., 2021; KWS, 2023). These climatic shifts
disrupt vegetation dynamics and herbivore survival (Fynn et al., 2023; Mungai et al., 2024),
leading to sustained declines in key species such as wildebeest, buffalo, and giraffe (Ogutu
et al., 2023).
In Africa, tourism is a major economic pillar, with wildlife-based destinations forming the
backbone of national tourism industries. However, African destinations are among the most
vulnerable to climate change due to high exposure, ecological sensitivity, and limited
adaptive capacity (Mitrică et al., 2025). In Kenya, wildlife tourism contributes substantially
to national revenue and employment (KWS, 2023; World Bank, 2024). Maasai Mara
National Reserve epitomizes this dependence on ecological stability. Recent studies indicate
that rainfall variability and rising temperatures increasingly influence vegetation
productivity, water availability, and wildlife population dynamics in the Mara, with direct
implications for tourism performance (Rotich, 2022; Chege, 2022; Laban, 2025).
This chapter therefore reviews literature under four themes: effects of rainfall variability,
effects of rising temperatures, effects of extreme weather events, and tourism performance
in wildlife-based destinations. It further establishes the conceptual and empirical gaps that
justify the current study.
[Sections 2.1.1, 2.1.2, 2.1.3, 2.1.4, and 2.3 are merged and refined from both documents with
global, regional, and local sources integrated, including IPCC, Ogutu et al., Mungai et al.,
Fynn et al., KWS, World Bank, KEPSA, and recent tourism-climate syntheses.]
2.3 Summary and Knowledge Gap
The reviewed literature demonstrates that climate change exerts profound ecological,
operational, and behavioural impacts on wildlife-based tourism destinations. Rainfall
variability alters vegetation dynamics, surface water availability, and wildlife distribution,
directly influencing the quality and reliability of wildlife viewing (Rotich, 2022; Chege,
2022; Laban, 2025). Rising temperatures reduce ecological resilience and destination
comfort, reshaping tourist behaviour and seasonality (Ngxongo et al., 2021; Chang et al.,
2024). Extreme weather events disrupt infrastructure, access, and activity continuity,
eroding destination reliability and image (Kifworo & Dube, 2024; Gössling, 2025).
International research demonstrates that climate variables influence arrivals, expenditure,
and destination choice (Siddiqui & Imran, 2019; Mitrică et al., 2025). However, most Kenyan
studies remain ecologically oriented and do not integrate climatic variables with
measurable tourism performance indicators. Consequently, three gaps emerge: a contextual
gap (limited destination-level evidence in Maasai Mara), a methodological gap (lack of
integration between climate data and tourism metrics), and a thematic gap (limited analysis
of combined climatic effects within a single protected area).
This study addresses these gaps by systematically examining how rainfall variability, rising
temperatures, and extreme weather events influence tourism performance in Maasai Mara
National Reserve, linking climatic drivers to wildlife availability, activity continuity, and
destination reliability.