S3 New Curriculum O-level mathematics

Term 3

Theme: Data and probability

Chapter 9: Probability

Probability is the measure of chance of an Types of Probability Experiments

event occurring or not occurring
Type Description Example
Probability experiment Random Outcome is Tossing a coin
Experiment uncertain
A probability experiment is any activity or Deterministic Outcome is Turning on a
procedure that: Process always the light switch
same
 Can be repeated under the same Bernoulli Only two Success/failure,
conditions Trial possible heads/tails
 Has a well-defined set of possible outcomes
outcomes (called the sample space) Composed Multiple Tossing a coin
 Produces outcomes that are not Experiment trials of the 100 times
predetermined same
experiment
✅Examples:
Experimental vs Theoretical Probability
 Tossing a coin
 Rolling a die Type Description Formula
 Drawing a card from a deck
Experi Based on P(E) =
 Spinning a wheel
mental actual trials
and
Each repetition of the experiment is called a outcomes
trial, and the result of each trial is an
Theore Based on P(E)=
outcome.
tical expected
outcomes
without
trials

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Example 1 Example 3

When a coin was tossed 20 times; Heads Find the probability of getting two head when
occurred 12 times an ordinary coin is tossed thrice

S = (HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT)

Experimental probability of heads:
n(s) = 8
P(heads) = =0.6
E= (HTH, HHT, THH)

Importance of Probability Experiments n(E) = 3

 Help model uncertainty in real-world P(E) =

scenarios for instance the probability
below 40 year; probability one house Example 4
catches fire out 100 houses insured, how
(a) A die is tossed once, find the probability
many of hundred malaria patients will be
of getting
cured by a certain drug..
(ii) a number greater than 3
 Form the basis of statistical inference
 Used in fields like medicine, economics, S = (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
engineering, and AI
n(s) = 6
Sample space
E = (4, 5, 6)
A sample space(s) is the set of all possible
n(E) = 3
outcomes/results of an experiment

Example 1 P(number greater than 3) = =

(i) When a dice is rolled once (iii) prime number

s = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} E = (2, 3, 5)
(ii) When a coin is tossed once s = {H, T} n(E) = 3
(iii) Sun rising from the north direction, s ={ }
(iv) Sun rising from east direction s = {1} P(prime number) = =

Events (iv) Number less than 3

E = (1, 2)
An event (E) is a subset of a sample space.
n(E) = 2
Example 2
P(number less than 3) = =
When a coin is tossed twice,
(v) Number greater of equal to 3
s = (HH, TT, HT, TH)
E = (3, 4, 5, 6)
When interested in getting one head, n(E) = 4

E = (TH, HT)

Probability of an event P( )= =

Given an event, E over a sample space, S

P(E) = (b) A bag contains 5 red beads, 3 black beads

and two blue beads. Calculate the

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 probability of picking a blue bead at (i) the same * +
random
(ii) differ by at least 3 * +
P(blue bead) = = (b) the sum is
(i) =7 * +
Trial 1
(ii) ≥7 * +
1. Two fair coins are tossed
(iii) =13 [0]
(a) Construct a table showing all possible
outcomes. (iv) ≤10 * +
(b) What is the probability of getting at (v) =10 * +
least a tail? * + 8. Sara has the following coins in her pocket
2. (a) A coin and a regular tetrahedron bag: UGX 50; UGX 100; UGX 200; UGX
with faces numbered from 1 to 4 are 500; UGX 1000. She selects a coin at
tossed. random to put into a charity collection
(a) Construct a table showing all the box. What is the probability that she:
possible outcomes (a) gives more than UGX 200
(b) What is the probability of getting a (b) has less than UGX 800 left in her bag
tail and a number greater than 1? * + (c) has more than UGX 300 left in her bag
(d) gives at least 10% of the money in her
3. A box contains 3 red apples and 4 green
bag
apples what is the probability of choosing
(e) gives more than one fifth of the
(i) Green apple * + money in her bag
(ii) Red apple* +
2. A class has 30 girls and 40 boys. The
4. Three coins are tossed once, find the probability that a boy selected at random
probability of getting one head * + is wearing stockings is 0.3. The probability
5. A number is selected from a set of that a girl selected at random is wearing
integers 1- 9 inclusive. Find the probability stockings is 0.9. Calculate the probability
of picking that a learner selected at random from
the whole class: a) is a boy b) is a girl
(c) Even integer* +
wearing stockings c) is not wearing
(d) Prime integer * + stockings
(e) Odd number* + Intersection of events
6. Three digits 1, 2, 3 are used at random to
form a 2-digit number and each figure is For any two events A and B, the probability
used once that A and B occur together is (A B)
(a) List down the sample space. Union of event
(b) What is the probability that the
number formed is For any two events A and B, the probability
(i) Even * + that event A or B or both occur is P(A

(ii) Odd * + P(A

(iii) Greater 30 * + P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

(iv) Less than 10 [0] Example 5
7. A dice is tossed twice. Find the probability
(a) that the score on the two dice will be (a) The probability that a student passes
English is , the probability that he passes

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 mathematics is . If the probability that he A’ denotes event A does not occur

passes at least one of them is . Find the For events A and B

probability he passes that he passes both
(i) P(A) + P(A’) = 1
subjects.
(ii) P(B) + P(B’) = 1
P(E = P(E) + P(M) – P(E (iii) P(A
(iv) P(A
P(E =
Example 6
(b) A box contains 8 blue beads, 5 red beads
The probabilities that P, Q and R wining
and 2 green beads. Find the probability
that a pen picked at random is football competition are
(i) Blue respectively. Calculate the probability that
n(s) = 8 + 5 + 2 = 15
(a) Either P or Q win
n(B) = 8 P(P or Q) = P(P) + P(Q)
P(B) = =
(ii) Red
=
n(R) = 5
(b) Neither P or Q win
P(B) =
P(P or Q)’ = 1 - P(P or Q)
=1-
(iii) Blue or red
N(B or R) = 8 + 5 = 13 =

P(B or red) =
(c) None of the three win * +
Or
P(B or R) = P(B) + P(R) P(P or Q)’ = 1 - P(P or Q or R)
= =1-( )

= =
=
Trail 2

1. A dice is tossed once. Find the probability Mutually exclusive events

of getting Two events are mutually exclusive if they do
(i) 1 or 2 * + not occur together i.e. P(A B)=0
(ii) 1 or 2 or 3 * + P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B)
2. A dice is tossed twice. Find the probability
Example 7
of getting a sum
(a) 4 or 8 * + (a) Events A and B are mutually exclusive
such that P(B) = , P(A) = , find
(b) 3 or less * +
(i) P(AUB)
(c) 8 or more * + P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B)
Complement of events =
=
The complement of an event in probability
refers to the set of all outcomes in the sample
space that do not belong to the event. (ii) P(A’ B)

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 P(A’ B) = P(B) - P(A B) = 0.5 – 0 = (ii) Neither Kiplimo nor Cheptegei
0.5 wins [0.4]
3. Events A and B are mutually exclusive
(iii) P(A’ B’) such that P(A) = and P(B) = ; find
P(A’ B’) = P(AUB)’ = 1 – P(AUB) = (i) P(AUB) [
1- 0.9 = 0.1 (ii) P(A B’) [0.4]
(b) Events A and B are mutually exclusive (iii) P(A’ B’) = P(AUB)’ [0.1]
such that P(AUB) = , P(A) = , find 4. Events A and B are mutually exclusive
(i) P(B) =P(AUB) – P(A) such that P(B) = , P(A) = , find
= 0.8- 0.4 (i) (P(AUB) [0.9]
= 0.4 (ii) P(A’) [0.4 ]
(ii) P(A’ B) = P(B) – P(A B) (iii) P(A’ B) [0.3]
=0.4 – 0 5. Events A and B are mutually exclusive
=0.4 such that P(B) = 0.4, P(A) = 0.5, find
(iii) P(A B’) = P(A) - P(A B) (i) (i) P(A’UB)
= 0.4 – 0 P(A’UB) [0.5]
= 0.4 (ii) P(B’) [0.6]
(iv) P(A’ B’) = P(AUB)’ (iii) P(A’ B’) [0.1]
= 1- P(AUB) 6. Events A and B are mutually exclusive
= 1- 0.8 such that P(A’ B) = 0.3, P(A’UB) = 0.45,
= 0.2 find
(v) P(AUB’) =P(A) + P(B’) – P(A B’) (i) (i) P(B) [0.3]
= 0.6 + (1-0.4) – 0.4 (ii) P(A) [0.55]
= 0.6 (iii) P(A’ B’) [0.15]
(vi) P(A’UB) = P(A’) + P(B) – P(A B’) (iv) P(A’UB’) [1]
= (1-0.4) + 0.4 – 0.4
= 0.6 (vi) P(A’UB) [0.45]

Trial 3 7. Event A and B are mutually exclusive such

P(AUB) = 0.9, P(AUB’) = 0.6, find
1. Event A and B are mutually exclusive such
that P(AUB) = , P(A) = ; find (i) P(B) [0.4]
(i) P(B) [0.1] (ii) P(A) [0.5]
(ii) P(A’ B) [0.1]
(iii) P(A B’) [0.6] (iii) P(A’UB) [ 0.5]
(iv) P(A’ B’) [0.3] (iv) P(A’ B’) [0.1]
(v) P(A’UB’) [1]
(vi) P(AUB’) [0.9] (v) P(A’UB’) [1]
(vii) P(A’UB) [0.4] Independent event
2. In an athletics competition in which there
no dead heats, the probability that Two events A and B are independent if the
Kiplimo wins is 0.5, the probability that occurrence of one does not affect the other
Bekele wins is 0.2, the probability that
(i) P (A B) = P(A) x P(B)
Cheptegei wins is 0.1.
(ii) P (A B) = P(A’) x P(B)
Find the probability that (iii) P (A B’) = P(A) x P(B’)
(iv) P (A B’) = P(A’) x P(B’)
(i) Bakele or Kiplmo wins [0.7]

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Example 8 P(A∩B) = P(A) x P(B)=
(a) Two independent events A and B are such (ii) Only one occurs
that P(A) = and P(B) = . P(A∩B’) + P(A’∩B) = P(A) x P(B’) +
P(A’) x P(B) =
Find P(AUB)

P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AՈB) (e) Three football teams Noa, Kitende and
Budo are playing in Nationals. The
= - x probability that Noa, Kitende and Budo
qualify for the finals is . Find
=
the probability that only two teams will
(b) Events A and B are independent such that qualify for the finals
P(only two teams qualify) = P(N’∩K∩B) +
P(A∩B) = , P(A) = , find
P(N∩K’∩B) + P(N∩K∩B’)
(i) P(B)
=
P(A∩B) = P(A) x P(B)
;
P(B) = =

= Trial 4
(ii) P(AUB)
1. Events A and B are independent such
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B)
that P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.5. Find
= (i) P(A∩B) [0.15]
(ii) P(AUB) [0.65]
(iii) Show that A’ and B are (iii) P(A’∩B’) [0.35]
independent 2. Events A and B are independent such
P(A’∩B) = P(B) – P(A∩B) that P(A) = 0.4, P(AUB) = 0.7 Find
P(B) – P(A) x P(B) (i) P(B) [0.5]
= P(B)(1-P(A)) (ii) P(A∩B) [0.2]
= P(A’) x P(B) (iii) P(A’∩B) [0.3]
(c) Events A and B are independent such that 3. A mother and her daughter both enter a
P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.25. Find competition. The probability that a
(i) P(A∩B) = P(A) x P(B) mother wins a prize = and the
= 0.4 x 0.25
probability that her daughter wins the
= 0.1
(ii) P(A∩B’) =P(A) x P(B’) prize is . Assuming that the two events
are independent, find the probability that
= 0.4 x (1 - 0.25) (i) Either the mother of the
= 0.4 x 0.75 daughter but not both wins the
= 0.3 prize. * +
(iii) P(A’∩B’) = P(A’) x P(B’) (ii) At least one of them wins the
= (1-0.4)(1-0.25) prize
= 0.6 x 0.75
P(AUB) * +
=0.45
4. Two athletes, Kiprotich and Chebet
(d) Events A and B are independent such that
attempt to qualify for Olympics games.
P(A) = , P(B) = . Find the probability that
The probabilityof Kiprotich qualifying is
(i) Both occur 0.8 and the probability that both

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 Kiprotich and Chebet qualifying is 0.6. 10. Three Athletes Kiprop, Chebet and
given that the probability of the athletes Aloysius are competing for a place in
qualifying are independent events, find Olympics games. The probability that
the probability that only one qualifies. Kiprop, Chebet and Aloysius will qualify
[0.35] for the Olympics games is .
Find the probability that only one athlete
5. The probability that a certain types of
will qualify for the Olympics games. * +
computer will break down on the first
month of use = 0.1. If the school has two 11. The probability that three girls Faith, Jane
such computer bought at the same time, and Angela will pass exams is
find the probability that at the end of the respectively. Find the probability that
first month just one has broken. Assume
(i) All the three will * +
that the performance of the two
computers are independent [0.18] (ii) All the three will pass * +
6. Three athletes enter a marathon race. (iii) Only two will pass * +
The respective probabilities of them
12. The interview involves written, oral and
completing the race are 0.9, 0.7 and 0.6.
practical tests. The probability than an
Assuming that their performance are
interviewee passes written = 0.8, oral is
independent, find the probability that
0.6 and practical is 0.7. what is the
(i) they all complete the race
probability that the interviewee will pass
[0.378]
(i) The entire interview [0.336]
(ii) at least two complete the race
(ii) Exactly two of the interview test
[0.834]
[0.452]
7. The probability that two twins pass an
13. The probabilities that the players A, B
interview are . Assuming that and C score in a netball game are
their performance are independent, find . If the player
the probability
play together in a game, find the
(i) They all pass the interview * + probability that
(ii) Only one passes the interview (i) Only one score * +
* +
(ii) At least one player scores * +
8. The probability that Angela can solve a
(iii) Two and only two player score
certain number is 0.4 and the probability
that Jane can solve the same number is * +
0.5, find the probability the number will 14. Events a and B are such that P(A) = , P(B)
be solved if both students try the number
= . Find P(AUB) when A and B are
independently [0.7]
9. Three target men take part in a shooting (i) Independent events * +
competition, their chances of hitting the (ii) Mutually exclusive events * +
target are . Assuming that
their performance are independent, find Probability tree
the probability that
Let the men be A, B and V
Probability tree diagram
(i) Only one will hit the target Example 9
* +
(a) A bag contains 5 black pens (B) and 4 red
(ii) Target will be hit [0.75] pens (R). Two pens are picked at random,

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 one after the other without replacement. (ii) Both are boys
Find the probability that both pens are of P(Both Boys) = P(B1ՈB2)
the same color. =
Total pens 5 + 4 = 9;

P(B) = ;
(iii) One boy and one girl
P(R) = ; P(G+B) = P(G1ՈB2)+ P(B1ՈG2)
= + =
(c) A factory makes cakes. When an inspector
8 R2
R1 tests a random sample of cakes, the
probability of any cake being
contaminated is 0.025. Jane bought two
B1 8 B2 of the cakes made from the factory. Find
the probability
P(both same color) (i) both are contaminated
= P(R1ՈR2) + P(B1ՈB2) (ii) only one is contaminate

Solution
=

(i) P(both contaminated) = P(C

=0.025 x 0.025
(b) A School student’s council consists of 7
= 0.000625
girls and 5 boys. Two students are
(ii) P(one contaminated)
selected at random from the council. Find
=P(C + P(C
the probability that;
Solution =0.025 x 0.975 + 0.975 x 0.025
Total number of students = 7 + 5 = 12 = 0.04875
P(G) = and P(B) = Trial 5
1. A box contains 5 black balls and 3 red
balls. Two balls are picked one after
another at random without
replacement. Find the probability that
both balls are red. * +
2. A box contains 15 red and 5 black
balls. Two balls are picked at random
(i) Both are girls (02 marks) one after the other without
P(Both girls) = P(G1ՈG2) replacement. find the probability that:
= (i) both are red * +
(ii) are different colour * +

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 (iii) both are black, given that the 8. The probability that I am late for work
second ball is black is 0.05. Find the probability that on
3. A box contains 4 red balls and 6 black two consecutive mornings:
balls two balls are randomly drawn (i) I am late for work twice
one after the other without [0.0025]
replacement. Find the probability that (ii) I am late for work once
(i) second ball is red given that the [0.095]
first ball is red * + 9. A box contains two types of balls, red
and black. When a ball is picked from
(ii) both balls are red * + the box, the probability that it is red is
(iii) both balls of different colour . Two balls are picked at random
* + from the box without replacement.
4. A box contains 3 black balls and 5 find the probability that
white balls. Two balls are randomly (i) The second ball is black =
drawn one after the other without
(ii) The first ball is red, given that
replacement. find the probability
the second one is black =
(i) second ball is white * +
10. A bag contains 30 white, 20 blue and
(ii) first ball is white given that 20 red balls. Three balls are selected
the second ball is white * + at random without replacement. Find
5. A box contains 3 red sweets, 8 blue the Probability that the first ball is
sweets and 7 green sweets. Three white and the ball is also white = 0.18
sweets are randomly drawn one after 11. A box A contains 4 white and 2 re ball.
the other without replacement. Find Box B contains 3 white and 2 red balls.
that A box is selected at random and two
(i) all sweets are blue * + balls are picked one after the other
without replacement.
(ii) all sweets are red * + (i) Find the probability that the
(iii) one of each colour * + two balls picked are red. =
6. A box contains 7 black sweets and 3 0.1333
white sweets. Three sweets are (ii) Given that two white balls are
randomly drawn one after the other picked, what is the probability
with replacement. Find the probability that they are from box B =
that: 0.3333
(i) all three sweets are black Using a Venn diagram to determine
[0.34] probability
(ii) a white, black and a white
sweet in that order are Example 10
chosen [0.063]
(iii) two white and one black (a) Of the 400 people invited to Kato's
sweets are drawn [0.189] wedding, 200 attended the service, 300
(iv) at least one black sweet
attended the reception, while 50 were
drawn [0.97]
7. A coin is tossed four times, find the absent at both places. With a clearly
probability of obtaining less than two labelled Venn diagram, find the Probability
heads. * +

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 of people who attended both the service Find the probability of the guests that did
not take any of the sodas
and the reception.
Solution
Solution
Let x = guest that did not take a soda
n( ) = 400;
𝜀 30
S = attended service; n(S) = 200

R = Attended reception; n(R) = 300 4

3
let n(S R) = x

ε = 400 Number of students5 that did not take any

soda
S R x + 3 + 3 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 1 + 5 + 5 = 30

x + 25 = 30
200 - x x 300 - x
x=5

50 Probability of guest that did not take any

soda =

200 – x + x +300 – x + 50 = 400 Trial 6

550 – x = 400 1. In a home of 8 people, 5 like eating meat
x = 150 (M) and 6 like eating fish (F) Use the Venn
the number of people who attended both diagram below to find the

= 150 (a) Number of people that like both meat

Hence the probability of people that attended and fish [3]

both service and reception (b) probability of people that like meat

= only.* +

= 2. In class of 50 boys, 40 like Mathematics

(M) and 25 like Science (S). Some boys (X)
(b) At her birthday party, Betty received 30
like both subjects and 2 do not like any of
guests. 11 of the guests took Pepsi-cola (P),
the two subjects.
13 guests took Mirinda (M), 15 took Coke
(a) Show this information in a Venn
(C). Given that:
diagram
3 Guests took Pepsi and Mirinda only.
(b) How many boys like both
5 guests took Mirinda and Coke only.
Mathematics and Science? [17]
4 guests took Pepsi and Coke only
(c) Find the probability of boys that like
1 guest took all the three sodas
Mathematics only? * +

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 (d) Find the probability of boys that like (i) that like one game only.* +
Science only? * + (ii) did not like any game * +
3. In a family of 15 children, 9 eat matooke 7. A group of 84 tourists were asked
(M) and 12 eat potatoes (P). Use a Venn whether they had visited Gulu (G),
diagram to find the probability of children Mbarara (M) or Soroti (S). The number of
that like both matooke and potatoes * + tourists who had visited Gulu was equal to

4. In a primary seven class of 50 pupils, 27 the number of tourists who had visited

like Mathematics (M), 22 like science(S) Mbarara. 54 had visited Soroti, 14 had

and 3 pupils do not like any of the two visited Soriti and Gulu only, 12 visited

subjects. Use a Venn diagram to find the Soroti and Mbarara only. 16 had visited

probability of the number of pupils that Gulu and Mbarara only. 13 had visited all
the three twons
like both subjects. * +
(a) Represent the given information on
5. In a class party of 51 pupils, 28 drank
Venn diagram
Mirinda (M). 29 drank Pepsi (P) while 6 did
(b) How many tourist had
not drank any of the two soda. Use a Venn
(i) Visited Mbarara? [45]
diagram to find the probability of the
(ii) Not visited Gulu [39]
number of pupils that drunk both subjects.
(c) Given that a tourist is selected at
* +
random, what is the probability that
6. In Hatari Boys primary school, 60 boys who he had visited only two towns only
represented the school in the country [0.5]
sports day played the following games: 8. A restaurant supplies food to 129 factory

24 played hockey (H), workers. It found out that 72 workers like

matooke (M). 50 like potatoes (P) and 32
19 played rugby (R),
like rice (R). 15 like matooke and rice. 18
23 played football (F), matooke and potatoes. 7 like potatoes and
rice. 44 like matooke only. 10 dislike all the
2 played both hockey and rugby only,
three types of food.
3 played football and hockey only. (a) Represent the given information on a

5 played football and rugby only, and Venn diagram

(b) Find the number of workers who like
1 played all the three games
all the three types of food. [5]
Use a Venn diagram to find the probability
of the boy

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 (c) Find the probability that a worker who play Rugby only. All students play at
chosen at random from the factory least one game.

likes at most two types of food. * + (a) Represent the above information on a
Venn diagram.
9. A group of students was asked what game
(b) Find the number of students who play
they play. It was found that 20 play Rugby
all the three games [2]
(R) , 30 play Soccer (S) and 15 play
(c) If a student is chosen at random from
Basketball (B). 6 play both Rugby and
the group find the probability that the
soccer, 4 play both Soccer and Basketball
and 5 play both Rugby and Basketball. The student at least two games * +

number of students who play Soccer only

is equal to twice the number of students

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Dr. Bbosa Science

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