GCSE Math Notes: Probability
Introduction to Probability
Probability is the measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. It is expressed as
a number between 0 and 1, where 0 means the event is impossible and 1 means the
event is certain. Probabilities can also be expressed as fractions, decimals, or
percentages.
1. Basic Probability
The probability of an event (E) occurring is calculated using the formula:
Formula: P(E) = (Number of favourable outcomes) / (Total number of
possible outcomes)
Key Concepts
Outcome: A possible result of an experiment or event.
Event: A specific outcome or a set of outcomes.
Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes.
Example 1: What is the probability of rolling a 4 on a standard six-sided die?
1. Favourable outcomes: 1 (rolling a 4)
2. Total possible outcomes: 6 (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
3. P(rolling a 4) = 1/6
Example 2: What is the probability of drawing a red card from a standard deck of 52
playing cards?
1. Favourable outcomes: 26 (13 hearts + 13 diamonds)
2. Total possible outcomes: 52
3. P(red card) = 26/52 = 1/2
2. Types of Events
a) Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot happen at the same time. The
probability of either event occurring is the sum of their individual probabilities.
Formula: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Example 3: What is the probability of rolling a 2 or a 5 on a standard six-sided die?
1. P(rolling a 2) = 1/6
2. P(rolling a 5) = 1/6
3. P(2 or 5) = 1/6 + 1/6 = 2/6 = 1/3
b) Independent Events
Two events are independent if the outcome of one does not affect the outcome of the
other. The probability of both events occurring is the product of their individual
probabilities.
Formula: P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B)
Example 4: What is the probability of flipping a head on a coin and rolling a 6 on a die?
1. P(head) = 1/2
2. P(rolling a 6) = 1/6
3. P(head and 6) = 1/2 * 1/6 = 1/12
3. Dependent Events
Two events are dependent if the outcome of the first event affects the outcome of the
second event. This often involves sampling without replacement.
Example 5: A bag contains 5 red balls and 3 blue balls. What is the probability of
drawing two red balls without replacement?
1. P(1st red ball) = 5/8
2. After drawing one red ball, there are 4 red balls left and 7 total balls.
3. P(2nd red ball | 1st was red) = 4/7
4. P(both red) = (5/8) * (4/7) = 20/56 = 5/14
4. Probability Trees
Probability trees are diagrams used to represent the probabilities of different
outcomes in a sequence of events. Each branch of the tree represents a possible
outcome, and the probability of that outcome is written on the branch.
Steps to use a Probability Tree:
1. Draw branches for the first event and write probabilities on them.
2. From the end of each first-event branch, draw branches for the second event and
write conditional probabilities.
3. Multiply probabilities along the branches to find the probability of a sequence of
events.
4. Add probabilities of desired sequences to find the overall probability.
Example 6: A coin is flipped twice. What is the probability of getting one head and one
tail?
Possible sequences: HT or TH
P(HT) = P(H) * P(T) = 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4
P(TH) = P(T) * P(H) = 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4
P(one head and one tail) = P(HT) + P(TH) = 1/4 + 1/4 = 2/4 = 1/2
5. Expected Outcomes
The expected outcome (or expected frequency) of an event is the number of times
you would expect the event to occur if an experiment is repeated a certain number of
times.
Formula: Expected Outcome = Probability of Event * Number of Trials
Example 7: If you roll a fair six-sided die 60 times, how many times would you expect
to roll a 3?
1. P(rolling a 3) = 1/6
2. Number of trials = 60
3. Expected outcome = (1/6) * 60 = 10
Practice Problems
1. A bag contains 7 green counters and 3 yellow counters. What is the probability of
picking a yellow counter?
2. If you flip a coin and roll a die, what is the probability of getting a tail and an even
number?
3. A box contains 4 red pens and 6 blue pens. If two pens are picked at random
without replacement, what is the probability that both are blue?
4. A spinner has sections numbered 1 to 5. If you spin it 100 times, how many times
would you expect to land on an odd number?
References
[1] BBC Bitesize. (n.d.). Probability. Retrieved from
[Link] [2] Khan Academy. (n.d.).
Basic theoretical probability. Retrieved from
[Link]
basics/v/basic-probability