2025 | A

ECMWF Communication Section

Copernicus Team
European Centre for Medium‑Range
Weather Forecasts, ECMWF
Robert‑Schuman‑Platz , 53175 Bonn, Germany
copernicus‑press@[Link]

Published January 14th 2026 updated January 28th 2026

(figures 3 and 9 and the associated text have been updated
to reflect full availability of global datasets for 2025).
DOI:[Link]

This Global Climate Highlights (GCH) report from the Copernicus Climate Change
Service (C3S) provides a brief synopsis of the state of global climate in 2025,
mainly based on data from the ERA5 global atmospheric reanalysis produced by
the European Centre for Medium‑range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The Global
Climate Highlights summarises the state of global air temperature, global sea surface
temperature and sea ice in both polar regions. This report also assesses current
global average temperatures relative to the 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement,
adopted by the Conference of the Parties in 2015.

ERA5 is one of six international datasets used to track global average temperature.
In addition to this report, which includes data from the Japanese Reanalysis for
Three Quarters of a Century (JRA‑3Q), further 2025 global temperature updates
will be released by the UK Met Office, NASA, NOAA, Berkeley Earth and the World
Meteorological Organisation (WMO), based on their respective datasets.
A complementary report on the European State of the Climate, providing more detail
on conditions in Europe, will be published by ECMWF and the C3S in April 2026,
in partnership with the WMO.
2025 | 1
Table
of Contents

2025: the third-warmest year on record →6

Sea surface temperature →18

How exceptional were the past three years? →22

Sea ice →26

A world of extreme events →28

Long‑term trends in climate indicators →32

Paris Agreement targets ‑ where are

we now and where are we going? →34
List of figures

Figure 1. 2025 continues the shift towards higher global temperatures →4

Figure 2. Key temperature statistics for 2025 →5

Figure 3. 2025 was the third-warmest year on record according to ERA5 →9

Figure 4. All monthly temperature records have been broken

over the past three years →11

Figure 5. Anomalies and extremes in surface air temperature →13

Figure 6. 2025 saw higher temperatures in the polar regions →15

Figure 7. Sea surface temperature remained high throughout 2025, despite the
absence of El Niño conditions →21

Figure 8. Anomalies and extremes in sea surface temperature in 2025 →23

Figure 9. By how much do annual global temperatures deviate from evolving

climatological averages? →25

Figure 10. February 2025 saw lowest global extent of sea ice →29

Figure 11. Half of the globe experienced more days than average with at least
strong heat stress in 2025 →33

To explore all visuals (including supplementary figures) To explore details on data, analysis the methods
and download the associated datasets, please visit the followed, please visit the About the data and methods
GCH2025 Graphics Gallery online. section online.
4 | Global climate highlights

2025 continues the shift towards higher global temperatures

Distribution of daily global surface air temperature anomalies (°C) from 1940 to 2025

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980
1973–76
La Niña event
1990 1991
1998
Eruption of
El Niño event
Mt Pinatubo.
2000 It contributed
to three cool years
(1992–1994) 2023–24
El Niño event
2010

2020

2025
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 +1.0ºC +1.5ºC

Cooler than 1991–2020 average Warmer than 1991–2020 average

*The height of each curve is proportional to the number of days experiencing a given temperature anomaly
Data: ERA5 • Reference period: 1991‑2020 • Credit: C3S/ECMWF

Figure 1. Distribution of daily global average surface air temperature anomalies (°C)
relative to 1991–2020 for each year from 1940 to 2025. Selected important
climate events have been annotated.
Data source: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF. Visualisation inspired by the work of
Erwan Rivault (BBC).

See the chart online.

← You can explore our online graphics gallery for an interactive version and to access the data behind it.
 2025 | 5

Key temperature statistics for 2025

Anomaly Actual Three highest

Region (vs 1991‑2020) temperature Rank anomalies

Surface air temperature

Globe +0.59°C 14.97°C 3rd highest 2024: +0.72°C

(+1.47°C vs 2023: +0.60°C
pre‑industrial) 2025: +0.59°C

Global land +0.86°C 10.08°C 2nd highest 2024: +1.06°C

2025: +0.86°C
2023: +0.85°C

Europe +1.17°C 10.41°C 3rd highest 2024: +1.47°C

2020: +1.19°C
2025: +1.17°C

Sea surface temperature

Extra‑polar ocean +0.38°C 20.73°C 3rd highest 2024: +0.51°C

2023: +0.45°C
2025: +0.38°C

Find more about data, definitions and methods in the About the data and [Link] C3S European region is defined as 25°W‑40°E, 340‑72°N.
The extra‑polar ocean region is defined as 60°N‑60°S. Data source: ERA5 • Credit: C3S/ECMWF

Figure 2. Key temperature statistics for 2025. The estimates for the globe refer to the
average surface air temperature over land and ocean, and for Europe over
land only. The extra‑polar ocean used for sea surface temperature refers to
the 60°N–60°S domain. Statistics for other geographic domains are available
in the Graphics Gallery.
Data source: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF.

See the chart online.

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6 | Global climate highlights

2025: the
third-warmest
year on record
 2025 | 7

2025 ranks as the third-warmest year

on record1, following the unprecedented
temperatures observed in 2023 and 2024.
It was marginally cooler than 2023,
while 2024 remains the warmest year on
record and the first year with an average
temperature clearly exceeding 1.5°C
above the pre‑industrial level. 2025 saw
exceptional near‑surface air and sea surface
temperatures, extreme events, including
floods, heatwaves and wildfires. Preliminary
data2 indicate that greenhouse gas
concentrations continued to increase in 2025.

1 All findings in this report, unless otherwise stated, are based on the ERA5 global climate reanalysis dataset produced by the European Centre
for Medium‑Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and covering the period from January 1940 to present and used for C3S’ routine climate
monitoring. To extend the record back to 1850 from 1940 we leverage longer global temperature records. Datasets other than ERA5 may
have a slightly different ranking for 2025. The global temperatures are presented relative to the pre‑industrial level, which uses an average for
1850–1900 from the IPCC 6th Assessment Report, and to a modern reference period, using the average for 1991–2020.

2 Preliminary satellite data from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), show that column‑averaged concentrations of carbon
dioxide and methane, which reached record levels in 2024, continued to increase in 2025. An update on growth rates and concentrations of
these two gases, based on consolidated estimates, will be provided in April 2026.
8 | Global climate highlights

Exceptional heat
continues to redefine
climate records: first
three‑year average
above 1.5°C
 2025 | 9

2025 was the third-warmest year on record according to ERA5

Global annual surface air temperature increase above pre‑industrial level since 1850

+1.5°C

1.0

ERA5 data
0.5

Other sources*

0.0

1850 1900 1950 2000 2025

*Other sources comprise JRA‑3Q, GISTEMPV4, NOAAGlobalTempv6, Berkeley Earth, HadCRUT5. Reference period: pre‑industrial (1850‑1900) • Credit: C3S/ECMWF

Figure 3. Global surface air temperature increase (°C) above the average for the
1850–1900 designated pre‑industrial reference period, based on several
global temperature datasets. *This figure was updated on 28 January 2026 to
reflect full availability of global datasets for 2025.
Credit: C3S/ECMWF.

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10 | Global climate highlights

2025 had a global average temperature of 14.97°C, While 2025 did not reach 1.5°C above the
0.59°C above the 1991‑2020 average, and 0.13°C pre‑industrial level, the average global temperature for
cooler than 2024, the warmest year on record. 2025 2023–2025 exceeded 1.5°C, according to the ERA5
was 1.47°C above an estimate of the 1850‑1900 dataset. This is the first three‑year average to do so in
average temperature designated to represent the the instrumental period. The average for those three
pre‑industrial level. This places 2025 as the years is 1.52°C for ERA5 and 1.50°C for JRA‑3Q.
third-warmest year, marginally (0.01°C) cooler than the
second-warmest year 2023, according to ERA5. The years 2023‑2025 stand out from all previous
years. Therefore, 2025 will be discussed not only in the
2025 was also the third-warmest year on record long‑term context, but also alongside 2023 and 2024.
according to the JRA‑3Q reanalysis. The average
temperature anomaly relative to 1850–1900 is 1.46°C All of the past 11 years (2015–2025) rank among the
for JRA‑3Q, with an absolute global temperature of 11 warmest on record. In 2025, the monthly global
14.98°C. Other centres whose global temperature average temperature exceeded 1.5°C above the
datasets (Berkeley Eart, GISTEMPv4, HadCRUT5 and pre‑industrial level during six months of the year, from
NOAAGlobalTempv6) are routinely monitored by C3S January to April, and again in October and November.
place 2025 as either the second- or the third-warmest This concludes an almost continuous series of 21
year on record. These centres have 2025 between months at 1.5°C above the pre‑industrial level, starting
1.39°C (HadCRUT5) and 1.45°C (GISTEMPv4) above in July 2023, with July 2024 as the sole exception.
the 1850–1900 level, assuming the same offset of
0.88°C between 1850–1900 and 1991–2020 levels as
used for ERA5 and JRA-3Q3.

3 For more information on how and why global temperature datasets differ, please see “About the data and methods”.
 2025 | 11

All monthly temperature records have been broken over

the past three years
Monthly global surface air temperature anomalies

Anomaly (ºC)
Jan 2025 | +0.79ºC
−1 0 1 Warmest January
ever recorded

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2025

Jan Jan
Feb Feb
Mar Mar
Apr Apr
May May
Jun Jun
Jul Jul
Aug Aug
Sep Sep
Oct Oct
Nov Nov
Dec Dec

Sep 2023 | +0.93ºC

Largest monthly anomaly
ever recorded

Data: ERA5 • Reference period: 1991‑2020 • Credit: C3S/ECMWF

Figure 4. Monthly global surface air temperature anomalies (°C) relative to 1991–2020
from January 1979 to December 2025, plotted as a heatmap.
Data source: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF.

Globally, January 2025 was the warmest January on record. March, April and May were each the second
warmest for the time of year. Each month of the year, except February and December, was warmer than the
corresponding month in any year before 2023.

Global temperatures for boreal winter (December 2024‑February 2025) and spring (March‑May) were each
the second‑warmest for the corresponding season, after 2024: at 0.71°C, and 0.59°C respectively above the
1991‑2020 average. Boreal summer (June‑August) and autumn (September‑November) were third warmest for
the corresponding time of the year, cooler only than 2024 (warmest summer) and 2023 (warmest autumn).

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12 | Global climate highlights

Warmer in the
polar regions,
cooler in the tropics

In 2025, annual surface air temperatures were above the 1991–2020 average
across 91% of the globe, the same fraction as in 2024. Nearly half of the globe
(48%) experienced much warmer than average annual temperatures (above the
90th percentile of the 1991–2020 climatology4). Annual temperatures were the
warmest over 9% of the Earth’s surface relative to all years since 1979 in the ERA5
dataset. These proportions were 63% (much warmer than average) and 31%5
(warmest), respectively, in 2024. While temperatures were less extreme in 2025
than in 2024, these figures highlight the persistence of widespread warmth across
the globe in 2025.

4 In the maps showing ‘temperature anomalies and extremes’, ‘warmest’ means the warmest in the dataset for its more reliable period from 1979
onwards, ‘much warmer than average’ means warmer than the 90th percentile of the annual temperature distribution during the 1991–2020
reference period; ‘above average’ means warmer than the 66.6th percentile; ‘near average’ means between the 33.3rd and 66.6th percentiles;
‘below average’ means cooler than 33.3rd percentile; ‘much cooler than average’ means colder than the 10th percentile, ‘coolest’ means the
coldest in the period from 1979 onwards.

5 The fractions of the globe with record‑high temperatures in 2024 reported here (for air or sea surface) are slightly lower than those quoted in
the Global Climate Highlights 2024 . This difference arises because record highs and lows are evaluated over the full 1979–2025 period. As a
result, some areas that were classified as record‑high in 2024 were surpassed by even higher temperatures in 2025, and are therefore no longer
counted as record‑high for 2024 when using this longer period.
 2025 | 13

Anomalies and extremes in surface air temperature

2025

2023 2024

Coolest Much cooler Cooler than Near Warmer Much warmer Warmest
than average average average than average than average

Data: ERA5 1979-2025 • Reference period: 1991-2020 • Credit: C3S/ECMWF

Figure 5. Anomalies and extremes in surface air temperature in 2025 (large map) and in
2023 and 2024 (smaller maps). Colour categories refer to the percentiles of the
temperature distributions for the 1991–2020 reference period4. The extreme
(‘coolest’ and ‘warmest’) categories are based on rankings for 1979–2025.
Data source: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF.

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14 | Global climate highlights

Land areas that were much warmer than average in In the tropics, the temperature anomaly in 2025
2025 included the tropical regions of the Americas, (+0.29°C) was lower than in 2023 (+0.53°C) and
northeastern Canada, large parts of Africa, the 2024 (+0.68°C). This reflects the persistence of
Maritime Continent, large parts of Europe and neutral ENSO conditions or periods of weak La Niña
extratropical Asia, as well as most of Greenland and throughout 2025, in contrast to the strong El Niño
Antarctica. Annual air temperatures over land reached event that influenced parts of 2023 and 2024. Less
record highs over the western United States, eastern extreme temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and
Greenland, northern Europe, western Russia, central Indian Oceans also contributed.
Asia, eastern China, and Antarctica. The annual air
temperature averaged over all global land areas was In the northern mid‑latitudes, the temperature anomaly
the second warmest on record, at 0.86°C above in 2025 (+0.84°C) was lower than in 2024 (+0.99°C)
average, 0.20°C cooler than the record set in 2024 but identical to the value observed in 2023. Both
and 0.01°C warmer than in 2023. 2023 and 2025 ranked as the second‑highest years
on record for this region. In contrast, temperature
Cooler‑than‑average to much cooler‑than‑average anomalies in the polar regions were notably high.
land regions in 2025 included eastern South America, This was particularly evident in the Antarctic region,
parts of westernmost and southern Africa, most of where the anomaly (+1.06°C) reached a record high
India, parts of southeast Asia and far‑eastern Russia. in 2025. In the Arctic, the anomaly (+1.37°C) was the
The cooler‑than‑average air temperatures over the second‑highest on record, behind 2016 (+1.59°C).
tropical Pacific reflected patterns in sea surface
temperature (SST) associated with neutral El Niño In the southern mid‑latitudes, the temperature
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or La Niña conditions6. anomaly in 2025 (+0.42°C) was the same as in behind
SST conditions in 2025 are discussed in more detail in 2016, with both years jointly ranking as the warmest on
the Sea surface temperatures section. record for the region.

Temperature anomalies, relative to the 1991–2020 This regional breakdown of temperature anomalies
period, averaged over five latitude bands provide shows that the lower anomaly in the tropics
further insight into long‑term warming trends across reduced the global average in 2025, while record or
the globe, as well as notable regional differences in near‑record warmth in most other regions partly offset
2025 compared with 2023 and 2024. All regions show this effect, resulting in 2025 being only 0.01°C cooler
a clear long‑term warming trend, although variability is than 2023 globally.
larger in the Antarctic region.

6 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural climate pattern that involves periods of warmer‑than‑average (El Niño) or cooler‑than‑average
(La Niña) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Periods when SSTs are close to average are referred to as
‘ENSO‑neutral’ or ‘neutral ENSO conditions’.
 2025 | 15

2025 saw higher temperatures in the polar regions

Annual surface air temperature anomalies in 2025

Arctic (60ºN-90ºN) 1.0ºC

60ºN
0.0

20ºN −1.0

Northern mid-latitudes (20ºN-60ºN) 1.0ºC

20ºS

0.0

60ºS
−1.0
Cooler than average Warmer than average

-4ºC -2ºC -1ºC +1ºC +2ºC +4ºC

Tropics (20ºS-20ºN) 1.0ºC

0.0
Global annual surface air temperature
0.6ºC anomalies since 1979 −1.0

0.4 Southern mid-latitudes (60ºS-20ºS) 1.0ºC

0.2 0.0

−1.0
0.0

Antarctic (90ºS-60ºS) 1.0ºC

−0.2
0.0

−0.4
−1.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2025 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2025

Data: ERA5 • Reference period: 1991-2020 • Credit: C3S/ECMWF

Figure 6. (Top left) Map of annual surface air temperature anomalies in 2025.
(Bottom left) Time series of global annual temperature anomalies from 1979 to
2025. (Right) Time series of annual temperature anomalies averaged over five
latitude bands from 1979 to 2025. All anomalies are calculated relative to the
average for the 1991–2020 reference period.
Data source: [Link]: C3S/ECMWF.

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16 | Global climate highlights

The third-warmest
year for Europe
 2025 | 17

For Europe, 2025 was the third‑warmest year on Winter 2025 (December 2024 to February 2025) was
record, with an average temperature of 10.41°C, the joint second warmest for the season, at 1.46°C
1.17°C above the average for the 1991‑2020 reference above the 1991‑2020 average, significantly cooler
period. This was 0.30°C below the record of 2024 than the warmest European winter in 2020
(1.47°C above average) and only 0.02°C cooler (2.84°C above average).
than the value for 2020 (1.19°C above average), the
second‑warmest year. Only one month of the year, For the year as a whole, temperatures were above
March, was the warmest for Europe, with an average average across Europe and much above average in
temperature of 6.03°C, 2.41°C above the 1991‑2020 most regions, with the exception of central parts of
average for March, 0.26°C warmer than the previous the continent. The eastern north Atlantic, the North
warmest March in 2014. Sea region including northern Britain and parts of
Scandinavia, the southwestern Mediterranean, and
westernmost Russia saw record‑warm temperatures.
18 | Global climate highlights

Sea surface
temperature

Sea surface
temperatures
remained high,
despite ENSO‑neutral
conditions
 2025 | 19

Sea surface temperature remained high throughout 2025,

despite the absence of El Niño conditions
Monthly sea surface temperature anomalies relative to 1991-2020

Global* (60ºS-60ºN)
0.7°C
0.7°C

0.3
0.3

0.0
0.0

−0.3
−0.3
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Niño 3.4 region

4.0°C
4.0°C

1997–98 2015–16
2023–24 2.0
2.0

0.0
0.0

−2.0
−2.0
1998–2001

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

*Excluding polar region. Data source: ERA5 • Credit: C3S/ECMWF

Figure 7. Monthly sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies averaged over the extra‑polar
ocean (60°S–60°N; top) and over the Niño 3.4 region (5°N–5°S, 170°–120°W;
bottom) in the equatorial Pacific. Anomalies are relative to the monthly averages
for the 1991–2020 reference period for the corresponding month.
Data source: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF.

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20 | Global climate highlights

The sea surface temperature (SST) averaged over the The annual SST anomalies for 2025 show a pattern
extrapolar oceans (60°S–60°N) remained historically consistent with La Niña–like conditions, with
high throughout 2025, despite the absence of El Niño near‑average to cooler‑than‑average SSTs across
conditions. This contrasts with 2023 and 2024, when a much of the eastern and central tropical Pacific. Apart
strong El Niño event influenced SSTs for several months from limited regions with cooler‑than‑average SSTs
of the second half of 2023, peaking in December in the northwestern and southern Indian Ocean, the
2023, with SSTs remaining high throughout 2024 and northeastern North Atlantic, and the southeastern
the average SST reaching record highs. The annual Pacific, SSTs were above average across most of the
average SST for 2025 was 20.73°C, 0.38°C above the world’s oceans. About 9% of the extrapolar oceans
1991–2020 average. It ranked as the third‑highest on experienced record‑high annual SSTs, substantially
record, 0.13°C below the record set in 2024 and 0.07°C less than in 2024 (25%4), mainly because of less
below 2023, the second‑highest year. This makes 2025 extreme SSTs in the tropical Atlantic and Indian
the warmest La Niña year on record both in terms of Oceans than in the previous year. In 2025, record‑high
global air temperature and SST. SSTs were mainly found in the western and
northwestern Pacific, the Indian Ocean sector of the
At the monthly scale, the average SST was the second Southern Ocean, the northeastern North Atlantic and
warmest on record for the time of year from January adjacent North Sea, Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea,
to May (behind 2024), the third warmest from June as well as parts of the western Mediterranean Sea.
to October (behind 2023 and 2024), and the fourth Beyond record values, SSTs were much warmer than
warmest in November and December (behind 2023, average (above the 90th percentile of the climatology)
2024, and 2015, which was also influenced by a over 42% of the extrapolar oceans, compared to 59%
strong El Niño event). In the equatorial Pacific, SSTs in 2024, underscoring the continued widespread
were cooler than average early in the year, reflecting warmth of the surface oceans.
a short‑lived, weak La Niña event in December 2024
and January 2025. Neutral ENSO conditions prevailed A notable feature of 2025 SSTs was the record warmth
from March to July. Cooler‑than‑average SSTs across large parts of the western North Pacific. Several
developed again from August, leading to a return to factors are known to have contributed to the exceptional
weak La Niña conditions in October that persisted until warmth of the world’s oceans since 2023 (see How
the end of the year. exceptional were the past three years? section
below). At the same time, the warm SST pattern across
the western North Pacific observed in 2025 is consistent
with the combination of La Niña conditions and a
negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
that characterised much of the year. This combination
is known to favour warm SST anomalies in this ocean
basin. The high SSTs also represent the continuation
of a marked warming of the North Pacific since around
2013–2014, which has been linked in part to changes in
ocean mixed‑layer depth.
 2025 | 21

Anomalies and extremes in sea surface temperature in 2025

Northwestern Pacific Northeastern Atlantic

Mostly much warmer Record-warm over
than average or record-warm large areas

Equatorial Pacific
Cooler-than-average Tropical Atlantic
reflecting ENSO-neutral or and Indian Ocean
weak La Niña conditions Less extreme
than in 2024

Sea ice & Coolest Much cooler Cooler Near Warmer Much warmer Warmest
ice shelves than average than average average than average than average

Data: ERA5 1979-2025 • Reference period: 1991-2020 • Credit: C3S/ECMWF

Figure 8. Anomalies and extremes in sea surface temperature for 2025. Colour
categories refer to the percentiles of the temperature distributions for the
1991–2020 reference period. The extreme (‘coolest‘ and ‘warmest‘) categories
are based on rankings for the period 1979–2025. Values are calculated only for
the ice‑free oceans.
Data source: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF.

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22 | Global climate highlights

How exceptional
were the past
three years?

Comparing current conditions with a

climatology based on a moving average,
rather than the traditional fixed 30‑year
average, can be used to investigate
anomalous events in a changing
climate. Against an evolving background
climatological state, annual anomalies are
more easily identified.
 2025 | 23

By how much do annual global temperatures deviate from

evolving climatological averages?

2024
+0.21ºC
1.5°C 2025
Smoothed temperature +0.07ºC
Deviation from smoothed temperature

1.0

2023–34
El Niño
1944
0.5 1878 +0.21ºC
+0.33ºC

1991
Eruption of Mt Pinatubo
0.0
1973–76
La Niña
1877–78 1883
El Niño Eruption of Krakatau
−0.5
1850 1900 1950 2000 2025

Only a sample of some of the most important natural events are highlighted.
Data: average of Berkeley Earth, ERA5, GISTEMPV4, HadCRUT5, JRA-3Q, NOAAGlobalTempv6 • Reference period: pre-industrial (1850-1900) • Credit: C3S/ECMWF

Figure 9. Difference in global‑average temperature (°C) from the designated

pre‑industrial (1850–1900) level, based on the averages of monthly values from
up to six datasets: Berkeley Earth, HadCRUT5 and NOAAGlobalTemp
(from 1850), GISTEMP (from 1880), ERA5 (from 1940) and JRA‑3Q
(from September 1947). Datasets are normalised to have the same averages
for 1991–2020 and an average offset of 0.88°C is used to relate 1991–2020
and 1850–1900 averages. The black curve shows an estimate of the long‑term
climatological variation of temperature (see About the data and methods).
The red and blue bars show the deviations of annual‑average temperatures
from this estimate. *This figure was updated on 28 January 2026 to reflect full
availability of global datasets for 2025.
Credit: C3S/ECMWF.

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24 | Global climate highlights

Figure 9 illustrates this approach for global‑mean Figure 9 also shows that the warming rate of the
temperatures averaged over multiple datasets. It background climatological state increases from the
shows that only two years were much warmer than late 1970s to the present day. It accelerates from
2024 when compared to the climatological state 0.18°C per decade at the mid‑point of the thirty‑year
at the time: 1877 and 1878. These were during the period 1979–2008 to 0.25°C per decade at the end of
‘Great Drought’ of 1875 to 1878, when it is estimated 2025. The evolving climate warms to 1.38°C above its
that around 50 million people died in India, China and 1850‑1900 average by the end of 2025. The
parts of Africa and South America. This period was dataset-average temperature anomaly for 2025 is
characterised by both a strong El Niño in the tropical only 0.02C smaller than that for 2023 when measured
Pacific and unusually warm SSTs elsewhere, although relative to the 1991‑2020 average, but 0.07°C smaller
gaps in data coverage prevent a full comparison with when measured relative to the evolving climate.
recent events.

Aside from 1876‑78 and 1877‑79, the period

2023‑2025 is, jointly with 1899‑1901, the warmest
period of three consecutive years relative to the
evolving climate. A strong El Niño occurred again in
1899‑1900, and the period also saw a further major
famine in India. The next two warmest three‑year
periods occurred during the spell of extended global
warmth that occurred from 1937 to 19457.

7 There is evidence that the sea surface temperature analyses for the early 1940s used here are biased warm, but surface air temperatures averaged
only over land for 1938 and 1944 are higher than for any other year prior to 1973.
 2025 | 25

What factors were behind the

warmth of 2023‑2025?
The 2023/24 El Niño was a strong but not exceptional change. This includes the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
example of this naturally occurring phenomenon, discussed in the Sea surface temperature section .
having a peak Oceanic Niño Index of 2.0°C, which is Other factors may also have had an influence on air
smaller than the peaks of the 2015–2016, 1997–1998 temperatures over the last three years, either directly
and 1982–19838 events. Aside from the El Niño, a or by enhancing the SST anomalies. They include:
significant fraction of the additional warmth of the
atmosphere in the last three years has been shown to ▬ Atmospheric circulation anomalies – changing
originate from SSTs across oceanic regions other than cloud amounts, air‑sea interaction and
the tropical Pacific. 2024 and 2025 were also slower to upper‑ocean mixing.
move from El Niño towards neutral and then weak La
Niña conditions than is often the case. ▬ Lower sulphur dioxide emissions by shipping
– warming due to an additional reduction in
The last three years thus appear to be exceptionally aerosols.
warm because of two main factors. The first is
accelerating human‑induced climate warming. This ▬ Reduced amounts of low‑level cloud – warming of
is partly due to a faster build‑up of greenhouse gases the climate system from increased absorption of
in the atmosphere, from continued emissions and solar radiation, due in part to a weakening effect of
reduced uptake of carbon dioxide by natural land aerosols on clouds
and ocean sinks, and partly due to reduced cooling
by aerosols, including from lower aerosol emissions ▬ Solar cycle maximum – warming from increased
from East Asia since 2010. Secondly, sea surface solar energy reaching Earth.
temperatures reached exceptionally high levels across
the ocean, associated with an El Niño event and ▬ Temperature/water‑vapour feedback – warming
other types of ocean variability, amplified by climate from the enhanced greenhouse effect of additional
water vapour in the atmosphere.

8 Warming of the global atmosphere in this case was offset by cooling due to the volcanic eruption of El Chichón.
26 | Global climate highlights

Sea ice

Continuing near‑record
sea ice lows
in Arctic and Antarctic

In the Arctic, the monthly sea ice extent began reaching record lows for the time of
year in December 2024 and remained at record‑low levels through the first three
months of 2025. The annual maximum in March was the lowest in the 47‑year
satellite record. Monthly extents were less extreme from April to August, although
they still remained well below average, ranking between second and ninth lowest
for their respective months. At its annual minimum in September, the extent was
further from record‑low values, ranking 13th lowest for the month (the minimum
in daily extent ranked 14th lowest). Later in the autumn, however, the extent again
approached historically low levels, ranking second lowest for the time of year in
November and lowest for December.
 2025 | 27

February 2025 saw lowest global extent of sea ice

Daily sea ice extent in both polar region

20M

Sep 2025
Antarctic 3rd lowest
15M

Mar 2025 Arctic

Arctic lowest

10M

Antarctic

5M
Sep 2025
Arctic 13th lowest
Feb 2025
0 Antarctic 4th lowest

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Data in square kilometres. Dotted lines show the 1991-2020 median values, the shaded areas illustrate the value range between 1979 and 2024.
Rankings are based on monthly sea ice extents. Data: OSI SAF Sea Ice Index v2.3 • Credit: C3S/ECMWF/EUMETSA

Figure 10. Daily Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent from 1 January 1979 to 31
December 2025. 2025 is shown with a dark blue solid line (Arctic) and light
blue solid line (Antarctic).
Data source: EUMETSAT OSI SAF Sea Ice Index v2.3. Credit: C3S/ECMWF/
EUMETSAT.

Around Antarctica, 2025 began with a near‑average tenth lowest. The annual maximum in September was
sea ice extent in January, in contrast to the record or the third lowest in the satellite record.
near‑record lows observed through most of 2023 and
2024. The situation changed in February, when the In February, the combination of record‑low
extent reached its fourth‑lowest annual minimum (the Arctic sea ice extent for the time of year and
minimum in daily extent ranked second lowest). For the much‑below‑average Antarctic extent at its annual
rest of the year, Antarctic sea ice remained well below minimum resulted in the lowest global sea ice cover for
average, with monthly rankings generally between any month since the beginning of satellite observations
third and fifth lowest, except in April, which ranked in the late 1970s.

See the chart online.

← You can explore our online graphics gallery for an interactive version and to access the data behind it.
28 | Global climate highlights

A world of
extreme events

Extreme events in 20259 had significant impacts on human health, ecosystems and
infrastructure. Among the most exceptional events were flooding, extreme heat,
drought, and wildfires.

Flash floods were caused by intense, and in some cases record, precipitation (for
example in the USA in February, and in China, South Korea, Pakistan, the USA and
India during boreal summer) or by glacier melting (including three glacial‑origin floods
in May and June, in Nepal, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and two in July in Nepal).

There was also larger‑scale flooding due to the passage of atmospheric rivers (such
as in the Pacific Northwest in December), monsoon rainfall (in South and Southeast
Asia during the wet seasons), large low‑pressure systems (e.g Australia in the austral
late summer and autumn), and tropical cyclones.

Provisional data from NOAA IBTrACS indicate that 2025 saw 103 tropical storms, of
which 50 became tropical cyclone strength and 20 became major tropical cyclones.
Many of these storms affected populations and infrastructure around the world.

9 The list of events included in this report provides some examples from across the globe, but is not exhaustive. Please refer to resources such as
the WMO State of the Climate Update for COP30 and regional and national reporting for more detailed information.
 2025 | 29

Among others, tropical cyclones that resulted In Asia, the regions affected during spring and summer
in flooding around the world in 2025 included: included India and Pakistan, parts of Central Asia, as
Cyclone Dikeledi, Madagascar (January); Cyclone well as Japan and South Korea. North America also saw
Zelia, Australia; Intense Tropical Cyclone Garance, severe summer heatwaves. In Africa, countries in the
Réunion Island and Mauritius; Tropical Cyclone Sahel saw temperatures significantly above average,
Alfred, Australia (February); Tropical Cyclone Jude, particularly in February and early spring.
Madagascar and Mozambique (March); Bay of Bengal
tropical depression 01, Bangladesh, India, Myanmar Europe experienced multiple heatwaves from April to
(May); Tropical Storm Wutip, China, Vietnam and the September, particularly affecting Italy, Spain, Germany,
Philippines; Hurricane Erick, Mexico; Tropical Storm France, and the UK. Scandinavia and Finland also
Barry, Mexico and USA (June); Typhoon Danas, saw persistently above‑average temperatures in July.
Philippines, Taiwan, China; Tropical Storm Chantal, Some monthly and summer records were broken at
USA (July); Hurricane Erin, Lesser Antilles (August); local and national level, including in the UK, Ireland,
Typhoon Ragasa/Nando, southern Asia (September); Spain, Portugal and Türkiye. Some regions across
Typhoon Halong, Japan, the Aleutians, and Alaska; the continent experienced a combination of persistent
Hurricane Melissa, the strongest tropical cyclone of above‑average temperatures and marine heatwaves11.
2025 globally, the Caribbean, Bermuda and Canada
(October); Typhoon Kalmaegi, Philippines and Several regions saw a prolonged lack of precipitation, often
Vietnam; Typhoon Fung‑wong/Uwan, Philippines, coinciding with high temperatures, including parts of North
Taiwan and Japan (November); Cyclone Fina, and South America, southern and eastern Africa, regions
Australia; Cyclonic Storm Senyar, Malaysia, Indonesia of the Mediterranean, northwestern and eastern Europe,
and Thailand (November); Cyclone Ditwah, India and the Middle East, and parts of Southeast Asia.
Sri Lanka (November/December).
Heatwaves and dry conditions, often accompanied by
Europe was impacted throughout the year by a strong winds, favoured the spread and intensification of
range of storms and precipitation events, from wildfires in several regions across the globe. According
convective storms to named storms, often associated to Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)
with flooding. Estimates suggest around 40 named annual review on wildfire emissions in 2025, Europe
storms occurred during 202510. Examples include and North America were among the most affected
Storm Éowyn, which hit Ireland, the UK and western regions. The Iberian Peninsula, Scotland, the eastern
Scandinavia in January; Storm Amy (Detlef), which Mediterranean, and the Balkan region suffered from
impacted western and northern Europe; Storm severe wildfires throughout the summer, leading to the
Barbara, which brought record‑breaking rainfall highest annual total fire emissions in Europe12 in the past
to Romania and Greece in October, storm Claudia two decades. Extreme wildfires also persisted across
and storm Emilia, which affected western Europe in boreal regions of North America. Canada recorded its
November and December, respectively. second highest annual wildfire emissions, while the USA
saw a major wildfire outbreak in California in January,
During 2025, there were numerous heatwaves, often following a wetter‑than‑usual spring and an exceptionally
breaking national or local temperature records. dry autumn and early winter, which resulted in an
Significant heatwaves occurred across Asia, North abundance of highly flammable vegetation. Russia’s
America, Africa and Europe. far east, Syria and Australia also saw significant wildfire
activity during their respective spring or summer seasons,
leading to local emission records, according to CAMS.

10 2025–26 European windstorm season and 2024–25_European_windstorm_season (last accessed 07/01/2026)

11 See also the C3S web article on European summer 2025 ‑ hot in the west and south, dry in the southeast .

12 This definition of Europe encompasses the European Union and the UK.
30 | Global climate highlights

More heat stress

than average over
half of the globe

In 2025, 50% of the globe (land areas; excluding Antarctica) experienced more days
than average with at least strong heat stress (a feels‑like temperature of 32°C or
above). In some regions, such as parts of southern USA and eastern Asia, there
were up to 45 more days with at least strong heat stress than average, while central
Africa saw up to around 110 more days with very strong heat stress (38°C or above).
In 2025, some regions, such as most of Australia, parts of northern Africa and the
Arabian Peninsula, saw more extreme heat stress days than average. Up to a third
of the globe, including regions such as southern Africa and southern Asia, saw fewer
heat stress days than average.
 2025 | 31

Half of the globe experienced more days than average with at

least strong heat stress in 2025

Anomalies in the number of days Anomalies in the number of days

with at least strong heat stress with at least strong cold stress

-75 -50 -25 -10 -1 0 +1 +10 +25 +50 +75 days -75 -50 -25 -10 -1 0 +1 +10 +25 +50 +75 days

A day with at least strong heat stress has a maximum feels-like temperature of 32°C or more, and a day with at least strong cold stress a minimum feels-like tempe‑
rature of -13°C or below. Data: ERA5-HEAT Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) • Reference period: 1991-2020 • Credit: C3S/ECMWF

Figure 11. Anomalies in the number of days in 2025 with at least strong heat stress (left)
and at least strong cold stress (right), relative to the average for the 1991–2020
reference period. A day with at least strong heat stress has a maximum
feels‑like temperature, based on the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI),
of 32°C or more, and a day with at least strong cold stress has a minimum
feels‑like temperature of ‑13°C or below.
Data source: ERA5‑HEAT. Credit: C3S/ECMWF.

14% of the globe experienced more days than average with at least strong cold stress (a feels‑like temperature
of ‑13°C or below) in 2025. This is typically up to 10 days more than average, and includes an area covering
parts of Argentina, Uruguay and southern Brazil, where notable cold conditions occurred in late June and early
July for example, alongside southern USA and southwestern Australia. In northwestern USA, some areas saw
up to 25 more days with at least strong cold stress, and parts of northern USA and Canada also saw more days
than average with very strong or extreme cold stress. Meanwhile, up to 71% of the globe saw fewer days with
cold stress than average. Most notably, the region north of the Caspian Sea saw up to 60 fewer days with at least
strong cold stress than average, southern Scandinavia up to 45 fewer, and Iceland and parts of the USA and
Canada up to around 30 fewer.

See the chart online.

← You can explore our online graphics gallery for an interactive version and to access the data behind it.
32 | Global climate highlights

Long‑term
trends in climate
indicators
 2025 | 33

While this report explores the climate highlights ▬ In recent decades, temperatures over land have
of 2025, the C3S ‘Climate Indicators’ provide the risen around twice as fast as those over the
underlying context in terms of long‑term trends at ocean.
global and regional levels in a changing climate.
▬ Europe is the fastest‑warming of all the WMO
Here is a summary of some of the most relevant aspects regions, at around twice the global average.
from their most recent update, released as part of the
European State of the Climate 2024. ▬ Arctic temperatures have risen more rapidly than
those in the rest of the globe, with an estimated
warming of around 3°C since the 1970s.

▬ Since the 1980s, global sea surface temperatures

(extra‑polar ocean, 60°S–60°N) have seen an
increase of around +0.6°C, European Seas of
around +1.0°C, the Mediterranean Sea of around
+1.3°C

▬ Since 2020, atmospheric concentrations of the two

most important anthropogenic greenhouse gases,
carbon dioxide (CO₂2) and methane (CH₄4 ₄), have
seen an annual increase of approximately 2.4 ppm
and 12 ppb, respectively.

For the most recent updates on the long‑term evolution

of additional key climate indicators, including sea level,
ocean heat content, glacier ice, ice sheet and sea ice
loss and greenhouse gas fluxes, please visit the C3S
‘Climate Indicators’ dashboard.
34 | Global climate highlights

Paris Agreement
targets ‑ where
are we now
and where are
we going?
 2025 | 35

Where are we now?

By the end of 2025 the globe has warmed by about:

+1.4°C above the pre-industrial level

This number is based on three separate methods that use C3S data and calculations following those illustrated
in the WMO Global State of the Climate 2024

When will we reach +1.5°C?

If warming continues at the same rate as in the last 30 years, the
globe could be at:

approximately +1.5°C by

the end of this decade

Estimate based on the method behind the C3S global trend monitor.

The UNFCCC Paris Agreement, adopted ten years pre‑industrial referring to the 1850‑1900 level. There
ago, aims at “holding the increase in the global are ongoing community efforts aiming to propose
average temperature to well below 2°C above which methods to use to define the current global
pre‑industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the surface warming level and, as a consequence, how far
temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre‑industrial we are from breaching those limits.
levels”. While the Agreement does not specify exactly
how these levels are defined, there is consensus that A brief overview of four classes of methods under
they refer to long‑term global surface temperature discussion is given by the WMO Global State of the
change, with the current level being typically referred Climate report for 202413.
to as ‘current global surface warming level’ and

13 More detail in the About the data and methods

36 | Global climate highlights

Where are we now?

C3S provides regular monitoring of the ‘current global surface warming level’ using three
methods14 . By the end of 2025, all three indicate a current global surface warming level of
about 1.4°C above the pre‑industrial level.

Where are we going?

One year or two years seeing global surface air temperatures above 1.5°C does not mean
that the first Paris Agreement level has been breached. However, for the first time, the latest
three‑year average is above 1.5°C according to ERA5, highlighting that the world is getting
closer to this level.

A Met Office forecast issued late in 2024 correctly indicated that it was likely that
2025 would become the third, or even second, warmest year on record globally. The
corresponding forecast for 2026 is for a fourth consecutive year with an average
temperature more than 1.4°C above the average for 1850‑1900, with the temperature for
2026 likely falling below that of 2024, but close to that of 2023 and 2025.

The WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update for 2025‑2029 released in June
2025 reported an 80% chance that at least one of these five years would replace 2024 as
the warmest year on record, and an 86% chance that at least one of the years would, like
2024, be more than 1.5°C above the 1850‑1900 average. It also identified a 70% chance
that the five‑year average warming for 2025‑2029 would be more than 1.5°C above the
1850‑1900 level.

The C3S global trend monitor, which assumes a continuation of the rate of warming over
the last 30 years, updated at the end of 2025, indicates a crossing of the 1.5°C level in
2029. This estimate falls within, but in the early part of, the time interval for a possible
breaching of the 1.5°C level given by the ‘likely’ estimate from the IPCC 1.5 degree report
and roughly corresponds to the central estimate of the ‘early 2030s’ as assessed in the
IPCC AR6 report.

14 The three methods are: 1. The average of the last‑five years (1.38°C, see Figure Graphics Gallery), 2. the December 2025 estimate from the
Global trend monitor (1.41°C), 3. the December 2025 estimate from the LOESS‑filter smoothing (1.38°C, see Figure 10). Note, methods 1 and
2 are based on ERA5 only, while method 3 is a central estimate based on several datasets. There is additional uncertainty in the numbers
associated with the definition of the pre‑industrial and with dataset spread.
2025 | 37