Unit V

Probability
• Concept and definition
• Addition and Multiplication
theorem of probability
( statements only)
• Simple problems based on
addition and multiplication
theorem of probability
 • Probability is the branch of
mathematics concerning
numerical descriptions of
how likely an event is to
occur, or how likely it is that a
proposition is true
• The probability of an event is
a number between 0 and 1,
where, roughly speaking, 0
indicates impossibility of the
event and 1 indicates
certainty
Basic concept
HISTORY

While contemplating a gambling problem posed by Chevalier

de Mere in 1654, Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat laid the
fundamental groundwork of probability theory, and are
thereby accredited the fathers of probability
In our day-to-day life, we come across sentences as below:
1. When a coin is tossed it must fall down Certain

1. A spoon full of sugar is added to a cup of milk Certain

2. It is impossible to live without oxygen,water, food impossibility

3. Outcome while tossing a coin Uncertainty

4. Outcome while throwing a die Uncertainty

5. Meteorological officials predict that the rain fall will be normal during the monsoonUncertainty

6. Probably this year we may have a good harvest Uncertainty

Probability is extensively used in commerce, economic problems and

business
Definition of various terms used in the definition of probability
Trial event
• Many events can't be predicted with total certainty
• The best we can say is how likely they are to happen, using the idea of probability.

Definition of a trial and event

Any particular performance of a random experiment is called a trial and
outcomes are known as events
Example
When a coin is tossed, there are two possible outcomes:
•heads (H) or
•tails (T)

Rolling a die is a trial, getting 1 (or 2 or 3 or, ….or 6) is an event

An experiment is said to be a random experiment when its outcome cannot be predicted

• The sample space of a random experiment is
the collection of all possible outcomes of the
experiment and is usually denoted by S
• Any subset E of the sample space S is called an
event.
Sample space (S)
Consider an Example:
experiment of When we throw a die, the possible
tossing a coin: outcomes are 1,2,3,4,5,6.
• The sample space Hence the sample space (usually
is S = {H, T} written inside parentheses) is
• E = {H} is an S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
event

Each possible outcome (or) element in a sample

space is called sample point
Exhaustive events
The total number of possible outcomes in any trial is known as exhaustive events
Example:
• In tossing a coin there are two exhaustive cases, namely, head and tail

Quiz
In throwing a die there are ….. Exhaustive events

Ans: six (i.e)1,2,3,4,5,6

Favourable events:
• The number of cases favourable to an event in a trial is the number of outcomes which
entail the happening of the event
• The outcomes which make necessary the happening of an event in a trial are called
favorable events
• For example; if two dice are thrown, the number of favorable events of getting a sum 4 is
four, i.e., (1, 3), (2, 2) and (3, 1) . Hence, number of cases favourable in getting the sum 4
is = 3
 Exhaustive events
The total number of possible outcomes of a random experiment is called exhaustive events

• The group of events is exhaustive,

as there is no other possible
outcome
• In tossing a coin, the possible
outcomes are head or tail, number
of exhaustive events are two.
• In throwing a die, number of
exhaustive events are 6
• In case of throwing two coins,
exhaustive events are 4 (i.e) 22
• In throwing three coins, exhaustive
events are 8 (i.e) 23
• In throw of n coins, exhaustive
number of cases is 2n
 Mutually exclusive events:

• Two events are mutually

exclusive if they cannot occur at
the same time
• Another word that means
mutually exclusive is disjoint
• If two events are disjoint, then
the probability of them both
occurring at the same time is 0.

Quiz: In tossing a coin the events head and tail are mutually exclusive.
(a). True
(b). False Ans: (a). True
 Equally likely events
• Two or more events are said to be equally likely if each one of them has an
equal chance of occurring

Example:
• In tossing an unbiased or uniform coin, head or tail are equally likely events
• Unbiased coin means that the probability of heads is the same as the probability of tails

Independent events:
Several events are said to be independent if the happening of an event is not
affected by the happening of one or more events

Example:
In tossing an unbiased coin the event of getting a head in the first toss is independent of getting a head in the
second toss, third and subsequent throws
 Dependent
Events
The happening
of one event is
affected by the If we draw two balls from a bag
happening of containing 8 balls and if two balls
one or more drawn are not replaced, then the
events second draw is dependent on the
first draw.
Quiz
Getting a 3 on the
toss of a die and
getting a 5 on the
toss of a die are
(a). equally likely events
(b). Mutually exclusive
events
Ans: equally likely events
(since the probabilities of
each event are equal)
Mathematical or classical probability
If a trial has ‘n’ exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally likely outcomes among which
‘m’ are favourable to the occurrence of an event A, the probability of occurrence of A is
denoted by P(A) or p and is defined by

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑚

P= P(A) = =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑛

Result: 𝑖 . 0 ≤ 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 ≤ 1
(ii). P(S) = 1 where S is the sample space
Problem:
An unbiased coin is tossed once. What is the probability of getting head?

Solution:
When an unbiased coin is tossed once, the possible outcomes are head and tail.
Hence, total number of outcomes is n=2
Possibility of getting head, (i.e) number of favourable outcomes is, m=1
Hence, the required probability og getting head is
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑚 1
p = P(A) = = =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑛 2
1
Hence, p = P(A) =
2
Problem:
Two unbiased coins are tossed together. Find the probability of getting tail in both the coins.

Solution:
To find the probability of getting tail in both the coins, when two unbiased coins are tossed
together.
Possible outcomes
Let A be the possibility of getting tail in both cases Coin I Coin II
Head Head
Here, n = 4 and m= 1 Head Tail
Hence, required probability is Tail Head
Tail Tail
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑚 1
P= P(A) = = =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑛 4

1
P= P(A) =
4
 Getting Getting Getting

Getting a 3 on the Getting an even Getting a 1, 2 or 3

toss of a die and number on the toss on the toss of a die
getting a 5 on the of a die and getting and getting a 4, 5 or
toss of a die are an odd number on 6 on the toss of a die
equally likely events, the toss of a die are are equally likely
since the equally likely events, events, since the
probabilities of each since the probabilities of each
event are equal. probabilities of each event are equal.
event are equal.
Addition theorem of probability – Non mutually exclusive events
(i). If A and B are any two events of the sample space S and are not disjoint ((non
mutually exclusive events), then

𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

(ii) If A,B and C are any three events then

P (A ∪ B ∪ C) = P (A) + P (B) + P (C) − P (A ∩ B ) − P(B ∩C) −P (A ∩C ) + P(A ∩ B ∩C)

Addition theorem of probability – Mutually exclusive events

(i). If A and B are any two mutually exclusive events of the sample space S, then
𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵
(ii) If A,B and C are any three mutually exclusive events, then
P (A ∪ B ∪ C) = P (A) + P (B) + P (C)
Problem:
If P(A) = 0.37 , P(B) = 0.42 , P (A ∩ B) = 0.09 then find P (A U B)

Solution:

Solution
Given,
P(A) = 0.37 , P(B) = 0.42 , P (A ∩ B) = 0.09
We know that,
P (A U B) = P (A) + P (B ) − P (A ∩ B)
Hence,
P (A U B) = 0.37 + 0.42 − 0.09 = 0. 7
Problem: Solution
What is the Total number of cards = 52
probability of Number of king cards = 4
drawing either a Probability of drawing a king card = 4/52
king or a queen in Number of queen cards = 4
a single Probability of drawing a queen card= 4/52
draw from a well Both the events of drawing a king and a queen are mutually
shuffled pack of exclusive
52 cards? ⇒ P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B)
Therefore,
probability of drawing either a king or a queen = 4/52 +
4/52 = 2/13
 Solution
• When two dice are rolled together, there will be
6×6 = 36 outcomes. Let S be the sample space.
• Then n (S) = 36
Problem: • Let A be the event of getting a doublet and B be the event of
Two dice are rolled getting face sum 4.
together. Find the • Then A = {(1,1),(2,2),(3,3),(4,4),(5,5),(6,6)}
probability of getting • B = {(1,3),(2,2),(3,1)}
a doublet or sum of • Therefore, A Ո B = {(2,2)}
faces as 4 • Then, n (A) = 6 , n (B) = 3 , n (A ∩ B) = 1
Therefore, P (getting a doublet or a total of 4) = P (A U B)
We know that, P (A U B) = P (A) + P (B ) − P (A ∩ B)
= 6/36 + 3/36 – 1/36 = 8/36
P (A U B) = 2/9

Hence, the required probability is 2/9

That is, the probability of getting a doublet or sum of faces as 4 is 2/9

Problem:
If A and B are two events such that P (A) = 1/4 , P (B) = 1/2 and P(A and B)= 1/8, find
(i) P (A or B) (ii) P(not A and not B)

Solution
(i) P (A or B) = P (A U B) = P (A) + P (B ) − P (A ∩ B)
P (A or B) = 1/4 + 1/2 – 1/8 = 5/8--------------------------------(1)
(ii) P (not A and not B) = P ( 𝐴ҧ ∩ 𝐵ത ) (since, 𝐴ҧ ∩ 𝐵ത = (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) )
= P (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) ҧ
(since, P (𝐴)=1-P (A))
= 1 − P (A ∪ B)

P(not A and not B) = 1 – 5/8 = 3/8 ( Since by equation (1), P (A U B)=5/8)

Problem: Solution:
A and B are two
candidates seeking P (A) = 0.5 , P (A ∩ B) = 0.3
admission to KCLAS.
The probability that A We have P (A U B ) ≤ 1
getting selected is 0.5
and the probability that P (A) + P(B) −P (A ∩ B) ≤ 1
both A and B getting 0.5 + P (B) − 0.3 ≤ 1
selected is 0.3. Prove P (B) ≤ 1 − 0.2
that the probability P (B) ≤ 0.8
of B being selected is
Therefore, probability of B getting selected is atmost 0.8
atmost 0.8.
Multiplicative Theorem
For Independent Events

Probability of simultaneous occurrence of two events that are

independent is given by the product of their individual probabilities

P(A and B) = P(A)×P(B)

P(AB) = P(A)×P(B)
The theorem can he extended to three or more independent events also
as

P(A∩B∩C)=P(A)×P(B)×P(C)P(A,B and C)=P(A)×P(B)×P(C)

A shooter is known to hit a target 3 out of 7 shots; another shooter is known to hit the
target 2 out of 5 shots. Find the probability of the target being hit at all when both of
them try.
• Two events are
Solution: mutually exclusive if
3 they cannot occur at
Probability of first shooter hitting the target P (A) = the same time
7
2
Probability of second shooter hitting the target P (B) =
5
Events A and B are not mutually exclusive as both the shooters may hit target.
Hence the additive rule applicable is
PA∪B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A∩B)
Hence,P (A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A∩B)

= P(A)+ P(B)- P(A) P(B)

3 2 3 2
= + −( x )
7 5 7 5
29 6
= - 35
35
23
=
35
Problem:
A college has to appoint a lecturer who must be [Link]., MBA, and Ph. D, the
probability of which is 1/20, 1/25, and 1/40 respectively. Find the probability of
getting such a person to be appointed by the college.

Solution:
Probability of a person being a [Link]. Is P(A) = 1/20
Probability of a person being a MBA is P(B) = 1/25
Probability of a person being a Ph.D is P(C) =1/40
Using multiplicative theorem for independent events

P(A,B and C) = P(A)×P(B)×P(C)

= (1/20) × (1/25) × (1/40)
= 0.05×.04×.025
= 0.00005
For Dependent Events (Conditional Probability)
• Dependent events are those were the occurrences or non occurrence of one event effects
the outcome of next event
• For such events the earlier stated multiplicative theorem is not applicable
• The probability associated with such events is called as conditional probability and is given
by
𝑃(𝐴𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
P(A/B) = =
𝑃(𝐵) 𝑃(𝐵)
Note: P(A/B) is the probability of occurrence of event A when event B has already occurred

❖ Similarly the conditional probability of B given A is

𝑃(𝐴𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
P(B/A) = =
𝑃(𝐴) 𝑃(𝐴)
 Problem:
From a bag containing 3 white and 5 red balls of identical size, two balls are drawn at
random one after another. Find the probability of getting white balls in both the draws if
the draws are (i). Without replacement and (ii). With replacement
Solution:
Let A be the white ball in the first draw and
B be the ball in the second draw
Aim: to find white ball in both the draws (i.e) to find 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

(i). Without replacement

Given a bag contains 3 white and 5 red balls. So total number of balls is 8 .

3
Hence, P(A) =
8
𝑃(𝐴𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 3 2
2 Hence, P(B/A) = = implies 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)= 𝑃(𝐴) P(B/A) = x =
P(B/A) = 𝑃(𝐴) 𝑃(𝐴) 8 7
7 3
28
(ii). With replacement From a bag containing 3 white and 5 red
balls of identical size, two balls are
3 drawn at random one after another.

P(A) = Find the probability of getting white

balls in both the draws if the draws are
8 (i). Without replacement and (ii). With
replacement

3
P(B) =
8
3 3 9
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)= 𝑃(𝐴) P(B) = x =
8 8 64

3 3 9
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)= x =
8 8 64
 Problem:

A bag contains 6 white balls and 4 black balls. Another bag contains 7 white and 3 black
balls. One ball is drawn from each bag. What is the probability that (a). Both are white
(b). Both are black (c). One is white and the other is black?

Solution:
Let W1 and W2 represent white balls in bags one and two respectively and B1 and B2
represent black balls in first and second bags respectively. represent the white and
black balls respectively.
Given there are 6 White balls and 4 black balls in one bag and 7 White balls and 3 black
balls in another bag .
(a). To find the probability that both balls drawn are white

P(W1  W2 ) = P(W1 ) P(W2 )

In the first bag total number of balls is 10 and the number of white balls is 6 and one ball
is drawn at a time. Hence,

P (W1 ) =
6
10
Similarly, in the second bag, total number of balls is 10 and the number of white balls
is 7 and one ball is drawn at a time. Hence,
A bag contains 6 white balls and 4 black balls.

P (W2 ) =
7 Another bag contains 7 white and 3 black balls. One
ball is drawn from each bag. What is the probability
10 that (a). Both are white (b). Both are black (c). One is
white and the other is black?
Hence,

P(W1  W2 ) = P(W1 ) P(W2 ) =  =

6 7 21
10 10 50
 A bag contains 6 white balls and 4 black balls.
(b). Both balls drawn are black Another bag contains 7 white and 3 black balls. One
ball is drawn from each bag. What is the probability
that (a). Both are white (b). Both are black (c). One is

P(B1  B2 ) = P(B1 ) P(B2 )

white and the other is black?

In the first bag total number of balls is 10 and the number of black balls is 4 and one ball is
drawn at a time. Hence,

P (B1 ) =
4
10
Similarly, in the second bag, total number of balls is 10 and the number of black balls is 3
and one ball is drawn at a time. Hence,

P (B2 ) =
3
10
P(B1  B2 ) = P(B1 ) P(B2 ) =  =
4 3 3
Hence,
10 10 25
(c). One is white and the other is black? A bag contains 6 white balls and 4 black balls.
Another bag contains 7 white and 3 black balls. One
ball is drawn from each bag. What is the probability

P (W  B ) = P(W1  B2 )  (B1  W2 )
that (a). Both are white (b). Both are black (c). One is
white and the other is black?

= P (W1  B2 ) + P (B1  W2 ) sin ce (W1  B2 ) and (B1  W2 ) are mutually exclusive

P (W  B ) = P (W1 ) P (B2 ) + P (B1 ) P (W2 )

P (W1 ) =
6
10
6 3 4 7
𝑃 𝑊∩𝐵 = × + × P (W2 ) =
7
10 10 10 10 10

18+28 P (B1 ) =
4
= 10
100
P (B2 ) =
3
23 10
𝑃 𝑊∩𝐵 =
50
Practice Problem
There are 2 red, 3 green and 4 black balls of identical size in an urn. Three
balls are drawn at random. Find the probability that
(i). They are of different colours
(ii). 2 are green and 1 is black
(iii). 2 are red
(iV). Atleast one is black6
Solution
Given, three balls are drawn at random from a total of 9 balls, which could
be done in 9C3 ways.
9𝑋8𝑋7
i.e. n= 9C3= = 84
1𝑋2𝑋3
Total number of possibilities is 84
(i). m=2C1 x3C1 x 4C1
There are 2 red, 3 green and 4 black balls of identical size
= 2x 3x 4 in an urn. Three balls are drawn at random. Find the
probability that
= 24 (i). They are of different colours
(ii). 2 are green and 1 is black
(iii). 2 are red
24 2 (iV). Atleast one is black
Required probability= =
84 7
Total number of possibilities is 84

(ii). m= 3C2 x 4C1

= 3x4
= 12

12 1
Required probability= =
84 7
(iii). m=2C2 x 7C1 There are 2 red, 3 green and 4 black balls of identical size
= 1x 7 in an urn. Three balls are drawn at random. Find the
probability that
=7 (i). They are of different colours
(ii). 2 are green and 1 is black
(iii). 2 are red
(iV). Atleast one is black
7 1
Required probability= =
84 12 Total number of possibilities is 84
Atleast one black , means, one
(iv). m=(4C1 x 5C2 ) + (4C2 x 5C1 )+ 4C3 black or two black or three black

= (4x10) + (6x5) +4
= 74

74 37
Required probability= =
84 42