Course Title : Probability
Credits : 1 (20 Sessions)
Type : Compulsory
Session Duration : 75 minutes
Term : Term-II-IPM07
Year : 2025
Faculty : Dr. Rupika Khanna
Introduction:
The course starts with a discussion on the principles of counting and axioms of
probability. It focusses on understanding random variables and their types. It discusses
the characteristics of discreet random variables and continuous random variables; and
their respective probability distributions. Joint distribution, conditional distribution and
properties of expectations are also discussed. It also introduces concepts of uncertainty,
surprise and entropy.
Course Objectives:
The objective of the course is to see the relevance of concepts of theory of probability
and understand its application using examples from daily life. It aims to make
participants familiar of the risk components of business problems using tools of
probability. There are situations when it is easier to arrive at solutions that match with
those obtained using mathematics of probability using simple logic. This course aims to
link common sense to calculations.
Pedagogy:
The course will be lecture driven but, at the same time, class discussions will be
interactive in nature. Students will be encouraged to participate in problem solving
exercises. The aim of these exercises will be to link key concepts of probability to
everyday business and life. Participants are expected to prepare themselves for the
session as per the scheduled topic.
Evaluation Scheme
Assignments/ Class Participation 20%
Quizzes 20%
Mid Term Exam 30%
End Term Exam 30%
1
Text Book:
● Probability and Statistics for Engineering and the Sciences
[Link]
References
1. A First Course in Probability, 9/e by Sheldon Ross. Publisher: Pearson Education.
ISBN: 9789353065607.
2. Introduction to Probability Models, 9/e by Sheldon Ross. Publisher: Pearson
Education. ISBN-13: 978-0-12-598062-3
Learning Outcomes:
Students will be able to conceptualize the importance of probability in the area of
economics, finance and business related activities. They will be able to describe
situations in which humans are bad at probabilistic reasoning. It will lay foundations in
probability and distribution theory, data analysis and the axioms (laws) of probability.
Students will also be able to define the sample space, probabilities using conditional
probability, rule of total probability and Bayes’ theorem, discrete and continuous random
variables and their probability distributions and the Central limit Theorem.
Session Plan
Session Topic Reference
No.
1-2 Combinatorial Analysis- Basic Principles of Counting, Chapter 1 “A First
Permutations and Combinations, Multinomial Coefficients, The Course in Probability”
Number of Integer Solutions of Equations by Sheldon Ross
3 -4 Axioms of Probability- Sample Space and Events; Simple Chapter 2 “A First
Propositions, Probability as a Continuous Set Function Course in Probability”
by Sheldon Ross
5-6 Conditional Probability and Independence- Bayes’ Formula, Chapter 3 “A First
Independent Events Course in Probability”
by Sheldon Ross
7-8 Discreet Random Variables- Bernoulli random variable, Binomial Chapter 4 “A First
random variable, Geometric random variable and Poisson random Course in Probability”
variable by Sheldon Ross
9-10 Continuous Random Variables- Uniform random variable, Chapter 5 “A First
Exponential random variable and Normal random variable Course in Probability”
by Sheldon Ross
11-12 Jointly Distributed Random Variables - Joint Distribution Functions, Chapter 6 “A First
Independent Random Variables, Sums of Independent Random Course in Probability”
Variables by Sheldon Ross
2
13-14 Conditional Distributions- Discrete Case and Continuous Case, Chapter 6 “A First
Joint Probability Distribution of Functions of Random Variables, Course in Probability”
Exchangeable Random Variables by Sheldon Ross
15-16 Properties of Expectation- Expectations of Sums of Random Chapter 7 “A First
Variables; Moments of the Number of Events that Occur; Course in Probability”
Covariance, Variance of Sums, and Correlations; Conditional by Sheldon Ross
Expectation
17-18 Limit Theorems- Chebyshev’s Inequality and the Weak Law of Chapter 8 “A First
Large Numbers, The Central Limit Theorem, Course in Probability”
The Strong Law of Large Numbers by Sheldon Ross
19-20 Introduction to Poisson Process, Markov Chains, Surprise, Chapter 9 “A First
Uncertainty, and Entropy Course in Probability”
by Sheldon Ross