JESUIT MEMORIAL COLLEGE
LESSON NOTE PLAN WEEK 4, PERIOD 1 & 2
Date: 31st January -6th February, 2019 Subject: ECONOMICS
Name: AYAAKAA TERLUMUN Class: SS3 Average age: 16 years
Topic: Population Duration of Lesson: 80 minutes.
A. BEHAVIOURAL OBJECTIVES (Cognitive, Affective and Psychomotor)
At the end of the lesson, students should be able to:
1. Explain the factors affecting the size of the labour force, particularly the population characteristics
(age, sex, occupation, education, etc.)
2. Explain the meaning of population in Economics.
3. Describe population size and its implications.
4. Discuss various population theories in Economics.
5. Explain the meaning of population distribution and its implications on the economy.
6. Explain population census and state the importance and problems.
7. Discuss reasons for the different rates of growth in different countries.
8. Analyse the problems and consequences of these population changes for countries at different
stages of development
9. Appraise government population policy in Nigeria.
10. Explain concept of labour force and human capital, efficiency and mobility of labour
B. PREVIOUS KNOWLEDGE:
Students have heard of population of the school and the country at large
C. CONTENT
1. Determination and implication of population size and growth
2. Theories of population
(i) Malthusian theory
(ii) Demographic transition theory
3. Geographical, age, sex and occupational distribution of population.
4. Meaning and importance of population census.
5. Problems of population census.
6. Rural-urban migration.
D. INTRODUCTION
Ask different questions on topic and call on students to answer
1. What is population?
2. What is the current estimated population of Nigeria?
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E. PRESENTATION (Step by step exposition of the material)
Step I: The teacher explains the meaning of population.
Step II: The teacher explains the factors that determine the population size.
Step III: The teacher explains the implications of population growth and different population structures.
Step IV: The teacher explains the Malthusain theory of population.
Step V: The teacher explains the demographic transition theory.
Step VI: The teacher explains the meaning of population distribution in the domain of geography, sex
and age.
Step VII: The teacher discusses the implication of population distribution
Step VIII: the teacher defines population census and explain its importance.
Step IX: The teacher explains the problems of population census.
F. CONTEXTUALIZATION (of the material in the classroom situation):
Nigeria, Africa, Europe and the World population.
G. STUDENTS’ ENGAGEMENT IN THE LESSON
Group discussion, students asking questions, responding to questions and taking notes.
H. REVIEW (by teachers and students of familiar materials):
Can the world ever be over populated?
I. Evaluation (in three learning domains…cognitive, affective, psychomotor):
QUESTIONS:
1. What are the factors that affect the population growth of the country?
2(a) State briefly the Malthusian theory of Population
(b) Explain why Malthus theories were no longer believed after some year
3. What are the economic consequences of over population and under population?
CONCLUSION:
Population is the number of people that live in a geographical entity. The population of a geographical
entity is determined by a population census. The growth or decline in population of a country depends on
the birth rate, death rate and migration. The Malthusian theory of population and the demographic
transition theories explains the dynamics in the population of a country.
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POPULATION
Meaning of population: Population or population size refers to the number of people that live in
a geographical area. It can also be defined as the total number of residents or inhabitants of a
particular area/country, that is, the total number of people living within a geographical area at a
particular time. The population of Nigeria is estimated to be over 185 million people while the
population of the world is estimated to be 7.5 billion people. China is the most populated country
in the world with a population of over 1.4 billion inhabitants as of 2013. The populations of China
and India as of 2013 was more than half of the world population.
Factors that Determine Population Growth Rate or Size
Population growth refers to the rate of change in the size of a country’s population. Three factors
are responsible for the size and growth of a population. These factors are birth rate, death rate and
migration.
1. Birth rate: Refers to the number of birth per thousand of the population in a year. It is the
frequency at which new babies are born into a community or a country. It measures the number of
live births per thousand of the population in a year. It is also called the Fertility or Natality Rate.
It gives an idea of the average number of children born per woman, thus indicating the potential
for population change in a country. It is measured by dividing the total number of births in a
country by the population size, expressed per thousand of the population. The higher a country’s
birth rate, the greater its population growth will tend to be and the lower the birth rate, the lower
will tend to be the size of the population. The birth rate depends on the following factors:
(a) The age at which people marry: Birth rates tend to be higher where marriage age is lower.
(b) The age distribution of the population: In a place where there is predominance of people
between the ages of 15 and 35, birth rate will tend to be higher.
(c) The culture, tradition and religious beliefs of a society: A polygamous culture will tend to
have a higher birth rate.
(d) Knowledge and acceptance of birth control and family planning techniques: If people are
positively disposed towards family planning, birth rate will tend to be low.
(e) Economic welfare: Fertility rates tend to fall as an economy develops, due to the higher
opportunity costs of raising children. In economically developed countries, women are choosing
to have children at a later age, partly due to the high cost of raising children and because more
women opt to have a professional career.
(f) Government legislation either by persuasion or coercion to control the maximum number of
births per family.
(g) The Sex Distribution of the Population: The higher the ratio of women to men, the higher
would tend to be the birth rate.
2. Death rate: This refers to the number of deaths per thousand of the population in a year. It
measures the number of deaths per thousand of the population in a year. It is measured by dividing
the total number of deaths in a country by the population size, expressed per thousand of the
population. It is also called the Mortality Rate. The lower a country’s death rate, the greater its
population growth will tend to be and the higher the death rate, the lower the population will tend
to [Link] determinants of death rate include:
(a) Availability of medical and health facilities: Where health technologies are readily available
death rates will tend to be lower and life expectancy would be high.
(b) Personal hygiene and environmental sanitation
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(c) Standards of living: Advanced countries and countries with higher standard of living tend to
have lower death rates. Generally, people with higher income levels tend to have lower death rates
than those with lower income levels because high income earners are able to live a more
comfortable life and they can afford expensive medical operations.
(d) Natural Factors: These include diseases, epidemics and natural disasters such as drought,
earthquake, flood, famine, war, etc. These tend to increase the death rate of a country.
(e) Age distribution of the population: A country with a high proportion of old or aged people
would have a high death rate while a society with more young people will tend to have a lower
death rate.
(f) Nutrition: The kind of food people consume also plays a part in determining death rates. People
who eat healthy foods have lower death rates than those who eat unhealthy or unbalanced diet.
3. Migration: Movement of people in and out of a place or a geographical area. The size of a
population can also change due to the physical movement of people in and out of the country.
Migration has two aspects. Immigration and emigration. Immigration is the movement of people
into a place or a country, that is, when people enter a country to live and to work. Emigration is
the movement of people out of a place, that is, when people leave a country or community to work
and live abroad. Hence, immigration increases the population of a country while emigration
reduces it. The difference between immigration and emigration is Net Migration. A positive net
migration increases the population while a negative net migration reduces it.
Migration rate depends on certain factors which include:
(i) Natural Factors: The occurrence of natural disasters such as floods, droughts, earthquakes as
well as other natural factors such as the unfavourable climate, diseases, etc force people to emigrate
from a particular place.
(ii) Economic Factors: People tend to emigrate from places where there are less economic
opportunities to places where such opportunities as jobs, businesses etc abound.
(iii) Socio-Political Factors: People tend to emigrate from places where there are wars, conflicts
and persecution to places which are relatively safer and more secure.
Definition of Population Concepts
1. Net migration: The net migration rate measures the difference between the number of people
entering and leaving a country per thousand of the population in a year.
Net Migration = Number of Immigrants – Number of Emigrants
2. Population Growth: The change in a country’s population size.
Population Growth = Birth rate – Death Rate + Net Migration
3. Natural increase: The difference between the birth rate and the death rate is referred to as the
Natural Growth Rate or Natural Increase of the Population. It is given by the formula below:
Natural Growth Rate = Birth rate – Death rate.
4. Growth rate of Population: The change of a country’s population expressed in percentage.
𝑐−𝑝
r = 𝑝 x 100%
Where c = current population
p = previous population
r = growth rate
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5. Life Expectancy: This measures the number of years an average person in a country is expected
to live. The longer the life expectancy, the greater the population size tends to be.
Types of Population
1. Increasing or Rapidly Growing Population: An increasing or growing population may come
about due to an increase in birth rate, a decline in death rate or an increase in the net migration
rate. Some of its implications include:
1. Increase in labour force.
2. Enlarged market: increase in population will lead to increase in demand for goods and services.
3. Changes in investment and production pattern: production will be geared towards the production
of goods needed by children if children dominate the population.
4. High dependency ratio: an increase in the number children will lead to an increase in the
dependency ratio.
5. General decline in the per capita income and standard of living since the increase in the number
of people in the country would mean less income available for each person.
6. High rate of unemployment.
7. There would be increased pressure on social services since the number of users of these services
has increased and this may result in overuse and breakdown of these services.
8. Lower rate of capital formation partly due to inability to save.
9. Increase in social problems such as armed robbery, prostitution, illiteracy, drunkenness, etc.
10. High taxation or borrowing: The government will have to increase tax in order to provide basic
services such as water, health care, etc. for the rising population.
2. Ageing or Declining Population: An ageing or declining population has a higher number of
old people while the number of young and working population is decreasing. It occurs when there
is a fall in both birth and death rate, war and emigration. Its implications include:
1. Decreased labour force
2. High dependency ratio
3. Fall in gross domestic product, per capita income and standard of living
4. Lower savings and investment
5. Changes in investment and production patterns.
6. Increased unemployment
6. General decrease in demand and new patterns of demand.
7. Increased government expenditure.
3. Under-population: This occurs if the number of people in the country are too few relative to
the land area and available resources of the country given the existing level of technology. In this
situation, the people are not able to tap and utilize the resources fully. The consequences of under-
population include:
1. Low level of production/output
2. Low income per capita and low standard of living.
3. Low savings and investment.
4. Low productive capacity and low exports.
5. Low supply of labour.
6. Relatively small market size.
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4. Optimum Population: This is the best of all population sizes. It is the size of population which
yields the highest output per capita or per head given the available level of resources, land area
and technology. A country with optimum population is able to fully utilize its resources and this
results in a high standard of living. A country whose population is below the optimum is said to
be underpopulated while a country whose population is above the optimum is said to be
overpopulated. The implications of optimum population include:
1. Adequate or high standard of living.
2. Full employment of labour.
3. High level of output.
4. High productive capacity and high level of exports.
5. Adequate supply of labour.
Note: There is no specific figure for optimum population everywhere. It varies from place to place
and from one country to another. Optimum population is relative to the level of technology and
available resources in the country.
5. Over-population: This is a situation where the number of people in a country are too many
relative to the available land area and resources. In this situation, there would be increased pressure
on the available resources. The output per head is lower than the maximum and this leads to a fall
in the standard of living. The consequences of overpopulation include:
1. Increased congestion on land and pressure on natural resources.
2. Reduction in per capita income.
3. Higher demand for goods and services, leading to excess demand over supply and higher cost
of living.
4. Increased imports and balance of payment problems.
5. Excess supply of labour leading to fall in the wage rate.
High levels of government expenditure.
6. Increase in the incidences of social problems.
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Theories of Population
We shall consider two theories of population i.e. the Malthusian Theory of Population and the
Demographic Transition Theory.
The Malthusian Theory of Population
This theory was propounded by the British Clergy Economist called Robert Thomas Malthus who
influenced Charles Darwin, John Maynard Keynes and Alfred Russel Wallace.
The Malthusian theory of population postulates that the world population grows at an exponential
or geometric rate (2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, etc.) while food production increases at an arithmetic rate (2,
4, 6, 8, 10, etc.). There is a tendency for living things to grow beyond the available food. Thus, if
population growth rate is left unchecked, population would outstrip food production and the world
would face the misery of starvation.
However, Malthus maintained that for population growth to outstrip food production (i.e.
Malthusian trap) it would take a considerable period of time due to the effects of positive checks.
According to Malthus, positive checks are those things which increase the death rate. They
include: famine, war, floods, epidemics, natural disasters, etc. He later advocated for negative or
preventive checks which decrease the birth rate. They include: moral restraints, restraints on
marriages, late marriages, celibacy, family planning, self-restraint and restraint by couples.
Malthus did not refer to the modern birth control measures such as abortion, contraceptives and
the use of condoms probably because of his religious status. ASSUMPTIONS:-
1. Population grows at a
Diagrammatic representation of the Malthusian Theory. geometric rate.
2. Food production grow at an
arithmetic rate.
3. State of technology remains
constant.
4. Goods/ resoureces available
are limited.
5. Humans have the tendency
to reproduce.
Criticisms of the Malthusian Theory <- LIMITATIONS
The Malthusian theory is criticized on the following grounds:
1. It neglects the effects of agrarian and industrial revolution and hinged on the law of diminishing
returns under static technological conditions.
2. The theory neglects the possibility of opening new lands such as New Zealand, Australia and
Africa where people could emigrate from Europe.
3. The theory neglects the effects of improvement in means of transportation where food can easily
be shipped from surplus areas to deficits places.
4. Economic development has made people to be conscious of the effects of population, thus
making the Malthusian trap a mirage.
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5. There is marked reduction in pestilences or epidemics as a result of advances in science and
technology.
The Demographic Transition Theory
The demographic transition theory is a theory that creates a link between population growth and
economic development. The theory offers an explanation of how developed countries of the world
transit through different stages, starting from primitive agricultural society through agricultural
revolution and industrial revolution to attain stability in population growth rate. These stages are:
Stage 1: Pre-Industrial stage
This is a high stationary stage that is characterized by high birth rate and high death rate. The
population growth rate at this level is in a static equilibrium as the gains from birth rates are
neutralized by death rates. Fluctuations in birth rate and death rate are attributed to the following:
(i) Shortages in food supply due to poor yields in agriculture.
(ii) Absence of good means of transportation.
(iii) High level of illiteracy.
(iv) Lack of health care centres.
(v) Non-existence of contraceptives for family planning.
Stage 2: The Industrial or Transition Stage
This is an early expanding stage characterized by high fertility and a high but declining mortality
rate leading to a wide gap between the birth rate and the death rate. Birth rate tends to be stable
while death rate declines. The factors which are responsible for this stage are:
(i) Agricultural and industrial revolution.
(ii) Improvement in personal health (e.g. personal hygiene) and vaccination.
(iii) Improvement in public health such as sanitation and sewerage.
(iv) Family planning
(v) Improvement in standard of living through increased incomes e.g. Nigeria, Cameroon and
Niger fall under this stage.
Stage 3: Post-Industrial or Post Transition Stage.
This is the late expanding stage characterized by slow growing population due to a decline in birth
rate and a more rapidly declining death rate. At this stage, people become conscious of the
implications of giving birth to many children, especially the cost of raising them. Other factors
that are responsible for this stage are:
(i) Changes in traditional values
(ii) Improvement in technology and use of contraceptives.
(iii) Increase in literacy level and employment
(iv) Increase in urbanization e.g. Jamaica, Turkey, Ecuador, South Africa and Colombia.
Stage IV: This stage is the low stationary stage characterized by low birth rate and equally low
death rate due to the following factors:
(i) Lower rates of diseases
(ii) Higher food production
(iii) Independence of women as a result of education. E.g. US, South Korea, Bahamas, Puerto
Rico, China, Thailand, etc.
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Stage V: Declining population growth rate as a result of higher death rates relative to birth rates
caused by ageing population. E.g Japan, Italy, Germany.
Diagrammatic representation of the Demographic Transition Theory.
Criticisms of the Demographic Transition Theory
1. It is not a theory but a fact from the European experience which was generalized to other
countries, hence, it may not be fully applicable.
2. Crude birth rate is not the only measure of fertility as the theory postulates.
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3. Causes of decline in population vary place from place.
4. The sequence of demographic stages are not uniform in all countries.
Population Census
Population census is the counting of all the people in a country by the government at regular
periods of time, usually every ten years. It is a periodic headcount of all the inhabitants of a
geographical location.
Types of Population Census
There are two major types of population census. They are de facto and de jure population census.
1. De facto population census: In this method, the census commission fixes a date for conducting
the census throughout the country and counts only those who are physically present or seen at their
residences on that date.
2. De jure population census: This involves the counting of people who are known to be normal,
legal, regular or permanent residents of a particular area whether or not they are present at the time
of the census. It is also referred to as counting y proxy.
Importance of Population Census
1. It assists the government to know the number of people, that is, the population size of the country
or geographical area for administration purposes.
2. It aids the government in development planning because it reveals the kinds of economic
activities which the citizens engage in so that the government can plan towards improving these
activities.
3. It aids the allocation of resources in the economy so that the government can give more resources
to areas where the need is greater.
4. It aids the formulation of policies towards population growth since census reveals the age
structure of the population.
5. It assists the government in the formulation of policies towards migration.
6. It forms the basis for parliamentary representation since parliamentary representation is based
on the size of the population in different areas.
7. It serves as the basis for the importation of goods and services.
8. It helps the government to determine the size of the active population as well as the labour force
and those who are capable of defending the country in times of war.
9. It is an important statistic for obtaining foreign aid for a country.
Difficulties of Population Census in West Africa
1. High monetary cost because of the need to employ skilled personnel and get the necessary
materials.
2. Lack of efficient statisticians and demographers who are lacking in West Africa.
3. Poor transport and communication systems which hamper the movement of census officials.
4. High level of illiteracy as many people are ignorant of the importance of census, so they give
wrong information.
5. Prohibitive religious beliefs and customs which makes it difficult to undertake population
census.
6. Political factors such as inflation of census figures and political instability create problems for
population census.
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Reasons for High Population Growth in West Africa
The population of many West African countries, especially Nigeria, has been growing at a rapid
pace in the past few years. The following are some of the reasons why this is the case:
1. There has been an increase in birth rate as a result of higher levels of income, increasing
incidences of pre-marital and extra-marital sex, higher importance attached to large family size,
limited use of birth control and family planning and early marriages.
2. There has been a decline in death rate due to improvements in medical and health facilities,
better environmental and sanitary conditions, higher standard of living, increased civilization and
reduced incidence of social and political conflicts.
3. There has been an increase in net migration to West Africa as the number of immigrants has
increased relative to the emigrants in terms of foreigners coming to work.
Controlling Population Growth in West Africa
The high population growth being experienced in West Africa can be controlled using the
following means:
1. Family planning and birth control programmes which would educate people on how to control
birth should be introduced.
2. Education/ Mass literacy about the benefits of smaller family size and the costs of larger family
size as well as education beyond secondary level so that people can postpone marriage.
3. Provision of more job opportunities especially for women which will enable them contribute
more to production and less to population.
4. Encouraging late marriages and enactment of laws fixing the minimum age for marriage.
5. Discouragement of polygamy, pre-marital and extra-marital sex through sex education.
6. Migration policies which place restrictions on the number of people who are allowed to enter
and leave the country.
7. Government can legislate on the maximum number of children per family.
Population Distribution
Population distribution refers to the classification of a population according age, sex, occupation
and geographical location.
Age Distribution: The number of people within different age groups in the population. It is the
distribution of a population into different age groups usually children, active labour force and old
people. The age distribution of countries varies depending on the legitimate age of entering the
active labour force and retirement age. Low income countries tend to have a relatively larger
proportion of their population in the younger age groups. By contrast, wealthier countries tend to
have an ageing population with a growing number of elderly people. The age distribution of
population can be represented in population pyramids. Age distribution in Nigeria is classified as:
Children 0-17 years (dependent population)
Active labour force 18-65 (working population)
Old age 66 and above (dependent population)
The ratio of the dependent population to the working population is called dependency ratio. The
dependency ratio in Nigeria is high because the dependent population is greater than the working
population. The dependency ratio can also be expressed in percentage as:
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𝑂𝑙𝑑 𝑝𝑒𝑜𝑝𝑙𝑒+𝐶ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑𝑟𝑒𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
Dependency Ratio = or 𝑊𝑜𝑟𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑜𝑟 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑊𝑜𝑟𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
Economic Implication of Age Distribution of Population
A population with high dependency ratio is likely to face the following:
1. Increased demand for goods needed by the dependent population.
2. High public expenditure on social services.
3. Low living standards as a result of excessive dependence on the output of the active labour
force.
4. Rise in prices due to pressure on the goods produced by the active labour force.
5. Low level of savings.
6. Low investment.
7. Increase in the levels of imports.
8. Low supply of labour.
9. Changes in production patterns.
10. Fall in gross domestic product.
Factors affecting the size of the labour force or Working Population
1. The school leaving age: The lower the school leaving age, the higher the labour force.
2. The retirement age: The lower the retirement age, the less the labour force.
3. The number of sick, disabled or incapacitated people in the working age bracket: The
higher the number of sick and disabled people, the less the labour force.
4. The number of people who are unwilling to work.
5. The number of people who pursue further education.
6. The number of people who retire before the official retirement age.
Geographical Distribution of Population
The geographic distribution of a population refers to the spread of people across different
geographical areas of a country. Some regions in a country are densely populated while others are
sparsely populated. Population density refers to the average number of people living in a given
land area, usually one square kilometre. An area in which a high number of people inhabit a small
area is said to have a high population density or densely populated while low population density
or a sparsely populated area has few people in a given area.
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
Population Density = 𝐿𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎
Factors affecting geographical distribution
1. Physical Factors: These include soil conditions, weather and climate as well as relief or
topography. The occurrence of fertile soil conditions, favourable weather and climate as well as
lowland terrain tend to attract higher populations.
2. Economic Factors: This includes presence of natural resources, commercial and industrial
activities. Places where natural resources are abundant and where commercial and industrial
activities are common tend to have higher population.
3. Government policies of developing certain areas can attract high population to those areas
4. Historical Factors: Historical sites such as the origin of various ethnic groups and traditional
centres of government and art attract high population while war areas tend to have low population.
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5. Places with plenty of social and economic infrastructure tend to have high population.
6. Areas with many administrative and educational centres attract many people seeking
employment and educational opportunities.
Factors Responsible for High Population Density
1. Favourable climate
2. Fertile soil
3. Natural attachment and historical factors
4. Administrative headquarters
5. Employment opportunities
6. Presence of mineral resources
7. Commercial activities
8. Presence of industries
9. Social amenities and infrastructure.
Factors Responsible low Population Density
1. Poor relief or topography
2. Poor drainage
3. Unfavourable climate
4. Inaccessibility to an area
5. Low economic activities.
The major implications of geographic distribution of population
1. Over-population as a result of migration
2. Pressure on social amenities.
3. Social problems such as armed robbery and prostitution.
Occupational distribution of population
Occupational distribution of population refers to the distribution or spread of a population into
different jobs or occupations. This distribution could be in three major areas:
1. Primary production: Mining, extraction, farming, fishing, etc.
2. Secondary production- Building, construction, manufacturing, etc.
3. Tertiary production- Commercial and professional services e.g. banking, insurance, transport
and communications.
Many developing countries have a majority of their labour force engaged in the primary sector but
with greater economic progress, there is a shift of labour force from the primary and secondary to
the tertiary sector as it is in developed countries. This is change in the occupational distribution of
labour occurs because improvement in the ways of carrying out primary production leads to a
reduction in the number of people who are required to perform these tasks. Hence, more people
move to the secondary and tertiary sector.
The occupational distribution of population depends on a number of factors which include:
1. The level of education: Higher levels of education among the people results in an occupational
distribution with more people in the tertiary sector.
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2. The level of technology: As technology improves, less people are required in the primary sector
and they engage in the secondary and tertiary sectors.
3. Availability of natural resources: Abundance of natural resources gives rise to greater number
of people in the primary sector.
4. The types of productive activities: When a particular type of productive activity is common
in an area, more people tend to be involved in it.
Sex distribution is the classification of population according to sex, that is, male and female. It
measures the number of males compared to the number of females in the population. The sex ratio
shows the sex distribution of the population. Sex distribution is important because:
1. It affects birth rate. Hence, if there are more females than males, birth rate will tend to be high.
2. It determines the size of the labour force because a greater proportion of women may result in a
reduction in the size of the labour force especially in societies or cultures where women are
prohibited from working or women are not educated.
Religious distribution of population refers to the classification of a population in to various
religious groups such as Christianity, Islam and Traditional religions as in the case of Nigeria.
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