CHAPTER 2
COUNTING & PROBABILITY
EXPERIMENT
SAMPLE SPACE
EVENTS
COMBINATORICS
PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
ADDITIVE RULES OF PROBABILITY
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY AND INDEPENDENCE
• EXPERIMENTS
• SAMPLE SPACE & EVENTS
EXPERIMENT
An experiment is any activity or process that generates data.
Can be repeated any number of times.
All statistical experiments have three things in common:
The experiment can have more than one possible outcome.
Each possible outcome can be specified in advance.
The outcome of the experiment depends on chance.
TERMINOLOGY
Experiment
Activity or process that generates data
Can be repeated any number of times
Sample Outcome, 𝒔 or 𝝎 (omega)
any possible outcome
Sample Space, 𝑺 or 𝛀 (omega)
The collection of all possible outcomes of experiment
Event, 𝑨 ⊆ 𝑺
Any designated subset of 𝑆
EXPERIMENT (CONTINUED)
SAMPLE SPACE & EVENTS
SAMPLE SPACE
Sample space is the collection of all possible outcomes of experiment.
Denoted: 𝑺 or 𝛀
Toss a coin once and observe the top face. The possible outcomes are: _Heads_ and _Tails_
𝑆 = {𝑯, 𝑻}.
Roll a regular dice. Suppose the number it lands is of interest. The possible outcomes are:_1,2, 3, 4, 5, 6_
𝑆 = {𝟏, 𝟐, … , 𝟔}
Kick a field goal. The possible outcomes are: Success and Failure
𝑆 = {𝑺, 𝑭}
EVENT
Event is a subset of sample space. It is usually denoted by a capital letter.
Recall: Toss a coin once and observe the top face. Which of the following are events for this
experiment?
𝑨 = {𝑯}
𝑩 = {𝑻}
𝐶 = {3}
𝐷 = {𝑇𝑇 is observed}
Null Set (Empty Event) is an event with no elements and denoted by ϕ.
VENN DIAGRAMS
Venn Diagrams are useful to see set operations. Events are represented by regions.
𝑆
𝐴
TREE DIAGRAMS
Useful for enumerating sample space (𝑆), especially when experiment is sequential in nature
E.g.: Sample space of experiment “Flip a coin 2 times”
Outcome:
T T,T
T
H T,H
T H,T
H
H H,H
WORK TIME
In – class exercises 1 – 4