22 Bayesian Variational Inference
22 Bayesian Variational Inference
Abstract.
Heterogeneous, mixed type datasets including both continuous and categorical variables are ubiq-
arXiv:2507.16545v1 [[Link]] 22 Jul 2025
uitous, and enriches data analysis by allowing for more complex relationships and interactions to be
modelled. Mixture models offer a flexible framework for capturing the underlying heterogeneity and
relationships in mixed type datasets. Most current approaches for modelling mixed data either forgo
uncertainty quantification and only conduct point estimation, and some use MCMC which incurs a very
high computational cost that is not scalable to large datasets. This paper develops a coordinate ascent
variational inference algorithm (CAVI) for mixture models on mixed (continuous and categorical) data,
which circumvents the high computational cost of MCMC while retaining uncertainty quantification. We
demonstrate our approach through simulation studies as well as an applied case study of the NHANES
risk factor dataset. In addition, we show that the posterior means from CAVI for this model converge
to the true parameter value as the sample size n tends to infinity, providing theoretical justification for
our method.
Keywords. Mixture model • Mixed type data • Variational inference
1 Introduction
Mixture models provide a probabilistic framework for modelling latent subpopulations within a popu-
lation, without needing to know which subpopulation each individual data point belongs to. Mixture
models are ubiquitous in statistical modelling and are commonly used for clustering and density esti-
mation. Popular applications include image analysis [Niknejad et al., 2015, Beecks et al., 2015], finance
[Alexander and Lazar, 2006, Durham, 2007] and genomics [Pritchard et al., 2000, Rau et al., 2015] .
Commonly in data analysis, datasets include both continuous and categorical variables, and such
datasets are known as mixed type data. For instance, healthcare datasets might include continuous
variables such as a patient’s blood pressure, weight and height, but also categorical variables such as
smoking status. In such mixed datasets, the ability to model multimodal continuous and categorical
data simultaneously is critical in understanding the relationship between the variables of interest, and
the underlying subpopulations in the data.
Existing mixture models for mixed type data have been developed in various forms. Hunt and Jor-
gensen [1999] proposed a model where each mixture component is a product of multivariate Gaussian
distributions for the continuous data, and a categorical distribution for the categorical data. The authors
use an Expectation-Maximisation (EM) algorithm to calculate the maximum likelihood estimate of the
parameters of interest, which was later extended in Hunt and Jorgensen [2003] to include missing data.
Lawrence and Krzanowski [1996] uses a similar parametrisation, though allowing the mean of the Gaus-
sian components to depend on the value of the categorical data, but the covariance of the components
are assumed to be independent of the categorical data as well as the mixture components in order to
reduce the number of parameters estimated with EM.
There are also a number of works that assume categorical variables are generated from latent con-
tinuous variables, and the values of the categorical variables correspond to certain cutoffs in the latent
continuous variable. Examples of these include Ranalli and Rocci [2017] and McParland and Gormley
[2016], both of which use EM for parameter estimation.
1 Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
2 School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
1
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
Approaches using Bayesian inference to obtain a posterior distribution over the model parameters
rather than a point estimate have also been used widely in mixture models, especially for clustering
(Celeux et al. [2020], Celeux et al. [2000], Frühwirth-Schnatter [2001], Miller and Harrison [2018], Richard-
son and Green [1997], Zhang et al. [2004], Teh et al. [2006]). However, mixed type data mixture models
using Bayesian inference appear to be much more limited (Wang et al. [2019], Zhang and Berhane [2014]).
MCMC for mixture models are however not without significant drawbacks. MCMC is computationally
intensive especially in higher dimensions, and diagnosing convergence can be challenging. Due to the
non-identifiability of mixture components under symmetric priors, MCMC samples can exhibit label
switching, where component labels permute during sampling Jasra et al. [2005]. This makes direct inter-
pretation of component-specific parameters difficult without additional post-processing or constraints.
Variational inference (VI) is a popular method used in Bayesian statistics and machine learning to
approximate the posterior distribution when it is difficult or intractable to compute (Blei et al. [2017]).
VI approximates the posterior distribution using optimisation, and is typically faster and more scalable
than MCMC.
Variational inference has been utilised for mixture models previously. For finite mixtures and con-
tinuous data, it is well known that a Normal-inverse Wishart prior on the mixture component mean
and covariance and a Dirichlet prior on the mixture component probabilities, coupled with Gaussian
data, leads to closed form updates using the Coordinate Ascent Variational Inference (CAVI) algorithm
[Bishop, 2006]. For finite mixtures and categorical data, Ahlmann-Eltze and Yau [2018] proposed a
CAVI algorithm for multinomially distributed discrete data. Infinite mixture models using Dirichlet
Process and variational inference include the seminal work of Blei and Jordan [2006] as well as further
developments such as Wang et al. [2011], Hughes and Sudderth [2013] and Huynh et al. [2016].
In this paper, we propose a VI algorithm for finite mixture models on mixed type data, which allows
both the continuous and categorical variables to influence the make up of each mixture component. We
employ a mean-field variational approximation of the posterior with conjugate priors in order to obtain
analytical updates of the variational posterior using the CAVI algorithm, with the derivation equations
provided. We also perform a convergence analysis of the proposed CAVI algorithm. In particular, we
demonstrate that the posterior mean produced by the algorithm converges to the true parameter value
as the sample size approaches infinity, provided the data are generated according to the true model. We
investigate the empirical performance of our algorithm extensively on a number of simulated datasets,
where both point estimation and uncertainty quantification of the variational posterior are assessed and
compared with a Gibbs sampler and existing EM methods. Finally, we analyse data from the National
Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), a program conducted by the National Center for
Health Statistics (NCHS) that assesses the health and nutritional status of the U.S. population through
interviews and physical examinations, from which we use continuous and categorical risk factor variables
such as body mass index (BMI) and smoking status. These risk factors frequently co-occur and are
often etiologically linked; for example, obesity is a known risk factor for dyslipidemia, elevated blood
pressure, and hyperglycemia, making it difficult to accurately assess health risks when considering each
factor in isolation. We show our method can produce medically interpretable clusters of participants,
and we visualise said clusters in a way that takes into account uncertainty using the posterior predictive
distribution, something that is missed in most frequentist and non model based clustering methods.
Here, πk are the mixture weights, denoting the probability of each component 1 ≤ k ≤ K; and ψk,j,cij
denotes the probability of observing cij for the jth categorical variable under component k. In addition,
2
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
µk and Λk denotes the component centre and component precision matrix respectively for component k,
and we will also use Σk = Λ−1
k to denote the covariance matrix for component k. Note that, for a given
mixture component k, conditional independence is assumed between the p categorical variables in ci as
well as between ci and xi .
Often for computational reasons, it is beneficial to introduce a latent variable z of size n denoting
the realised mixture components of each observations. Let x ∈ Rn×q and c ∈ Zn×p represent the matrix
containing respectively the continuous and categorical data. Incorporating z, the model can be written
as:
n
Y Y p
n Y n
Y
p(z|π) = πzi , p(c|ψ, z) = ψzi ,j,cij , p(x|c, z, µ, Λ) = N (xi |µzi , Λ−1
zi ) (2)
i=1 i=1 j=1 i=1
As we are presenting a Bayesian approach to infer the parameters of this mixture model, we now define
the prior distributions over the model parameters, for which we consider the following:
µk ∼ N (mk , β −1 Λ−1
k ), π = (π1 , . . . , πK ) ∼ Dir(α, . . . , α)
−1
Λk ∼ W(ν, Φ ), ψk,j = (ψk,j,1 , . . . , ψk,j,dj ) ∼ Dir(ηj , . . . , ηj ) (3)
The prior of µk and Σk = Λ−1 k is a joint Normal-Inverse-Wishart distribution while π and ψk,j take
Dirichlet priors. The prior hyperparameters mk , β, ν, Φ, α, ηj are specified by the user. The posterior
distribution
p(x|c, z, µ, Λ)p(c|ψ, z)p(z|π)p(µ, Λ, ψ, π)
p(µ, Λ, ψ, π, z|x, c) = (4)
p(x, c)
induced by this prior is not available in closed form. In this paper, we derive a variational inference
procedure to approximate the posterior.
3 Variational Inference
3.1 Background on Variational Inference and Coordinate Ascent
In this section, we introduce the key concepts of Variational Inference and the Coordinate Ascent Varia-
tional Inference (CAVI) procedure that are essential for understanding the remainder of the paper. For
more detailed explanations, we refer the reader to Bishop [2006]. Suppose that we have some data x (not
necessarily the data described in the previous section) generated by a likelihood function p(x|θ) where
θ denotes some unknown parameters of interest, which have a prior distribution p(θ). In variational
inference, the posterior distribution p(θ|x) is approximated using a variational distribution q, which is
chosen from a family of distributions Q that are computationally more tractable than the true posterior.
The variational distribution q is chosen by selecting the distribution from the variational family which
minimises the Kullback-Leibler divergence (KL-divergence) between the variational distribution and the
true posterior. Specifically:
q = arg min KL(q(θ) ∥ p(θ|x)) (5)
q∈Q
In practice, the variational family Q is often assumed to be parametrised by variational parameters λ, and
the optimisation problem becomes equivalent to finding the parameter λ which minimises KL(qλ (θ) ∥ p(θ|x)).
One key advantage in this optimisation approach to Bayesian inference is that one no longer needs to eval-
uate the marginal distribution p(x), which is typically the main computational challenge in conducting
Bayesian inference through sampling. To see this, note that:
p(x|θ)p(θ)
λ∗ = arg min KL(qλ (θ) ∥ p(θ|x)) = arg min Eqλ [ln(qλ (θ)) − ln( )]
λ λ p(x)
= arg min Eqλ [ln(qλ (θ)) − ln(p(x|θ)) − ln(p(θ))] (6)
λ
where ln(p(x)) can be dropped from the optimisation objective as it is independent of qλ . The negative
of the remaining optimisation objective Eqλ [−ln(qλ (θ)) + ln(p(x|θ)) + ln(p(θ))] is commonly referred to
as the Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO). The nomenclature here refers to the fact that the ELBO is upper
3
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
bound by ln(p(x)), which follows from the non-negativity of the KL divergence KL(qλ (θ) ∥ p(θ|x)).
Note minimising KL(qλ (θ) ∥ p(θ|x)) is equivalent to maximising the ELBO.
A common assumption for the variational family is that the variational posterior factorises into a
product of independent distributions:
I
Y
q(θ) = qi (θi ) (7)
i=1
where qi is the posterior for the ith block of variables θi . This is known as the mean field assumption.
One popular and convenient algorithm for solving the optimisation problem in Equation (6) under the
mean field assumption is Coordinate Ascent Variational Inference (CAVI). CAVI maximises the ELBO
by iteratively updating each factor in the variational distribution while treating all other factors as fixed,
until the ELBO has converged to a local maximum. Given the variational posterior in Equation (7), the
ELBO becomes:
Z Y I I
X
ELBO = qi (θi )[ln(p(x, θ)) − ln(qi (θi ))]dθ
i=1 i=1
Z Y I
Z Y I
X
= qj (θj )[ln(p(x, θ)) qi (θi )dθi ]dθj − qi (θi ) ln(qi (θi ))dθ
i̸=j i=1 i=1
Z Y I Z
X
= qj (θj )[ln(p(x, θ)) qi (θi )dθi ]dθj − qi (θi )ln(qi (θi ))dθi
i̸=j i=1
Z Z
= qj (θj )[Eθ−j [ln(p(x, θ))] + C1 ]dθj − qj (θj )ln(qj (θj ))dθj + C2 (8)
R Q
where in the last line, Eθ−j [ln(p(x, θ)] = ln(p(x, θ)) i̸=j qi (θi )dθi . C1 and C2 are constants with
respect to qj . So to maximise the ELBO with respect to each qj while keeping the other qi , i ̸= j fixed,
one recognises the last line is a negative KL divergence between qj (θj ) and exp(C1 )exp(Eθ−j [ln(p(x, θ))]),
it follows that the ELBO is maximised when qj (θj ) ∝ exp(Eθ−j [ln(p(x, θ))]). Therefore, at each iteration,
CAVI updates the qj in turn via
qj (θj ) ∝ exp(Eθ−j [ln(p(x, θ))]) (9)
while keeping all qi , i ̸= j fixed.
4
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
The variational distribution can therefore be written as the product of three terms which can be derived
separately: q(µ, Λ, ψ, π) = q(µ, Λ)q(ψ)q(π). The variational distribution over π, q(π), can be shown to
take the form:
n
X
q(π) = Dir(π|α̂1 , . . . , α̂K ) with α̂k = α + rik (12)
i=1
where rik = Ezi [zik ] = q(zi = k) is the variational posterior probability of the i-th data being in
component k under the variational posterior probability. The term q(µ, Λ) can be shown to take the
following form:
Y
q(µ, Λ) = N (µk |m̂k , βk−1 Λ−1 −1
k )W(Λk |ν̂k , Φ̂k ))
k
where
Pn n
βmk + rjk xj
Pnj=1
X
m̂k = , β̂k−1 = (β + rjk )−1
β+ j=1 rjk j=1
n
X n
X n
X
ν̂k = ν + rik , Φ̂k = Φ − (β + rik )m̂k m̂Tk + βmk mTk + rik xi xTi (13)
i=1 i=1 i=1
This gives for each k, independent Normal-Inverse-Wishart distributions µk |Λk ∼ N (µk |m̂k , β̂k−1 Λ−1
k )
and Λk ∼ W(Λk |ν̂k , Φ̂−1
k )). Lastly, q(ψ) can be shown to take the form:
YY n
X
q(ψ) = Dir(ψk,j |η̂k,j,1 , . . . , η̂k,j,dj ) with η̂k,j,g = ηj + I{cij =g} rik (14)
k j i=1
After updating q(µ, Λ, ψ, π), we use its newly updated distribution to in turn update q(z), which can be
shown to take the form:
n o
q(z) ∝ exp E−z lnp(x, c, z, µ, Λ, ψ, π)
n X
nX K n X
X p
K X n X
X K o
∝ exp zik Eµ,Λ [ln(N (xi |µk , Λk−1 ))] + zik Eψ [ln(ψk,j,cij )] + zik Eπ [ln(πk )]
i=1 k=1 i=1 k=1 j=1 i=1 k=1
n Y
Y K
∝ ρzikik (15)
i=1 k=1
where
p
n X o ρik
ρik = exp Eµ,Λ [ln(N (xi |µk , Λ−1
k ))] + Eψ [ln(ψk,j,cij )] + Eπ [ln(πk )] , rik = PK (16)
j=1 j=1 ρij
The exact forms of each of the expectations inside ρik can be found in the supplement. Algorithm 1
summarises the CAVI updates for all the parameters. Details including the full derivation for each update
and the exact forms of the ELBO is reserved for the supplement.
5
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
where expectations such as Eπ are with respect to the variational posterior distributions, tν (x̃|m, Φ)
denotes a multivariate student t density function with ν degrees of freedom, location m and scale matrix
Φ.
From the form of (17), we can also obtain the marginals of the variational posterior predictive
densities for each jth component of newly observed continuous data x̃j or categorical data c̃j given a
particular mixture component k, i.e. q(x̃j |z̃ = k, c̃, x, c) or q(c̃j |z̃ = k, x, c). In particular, a component
of a multivariate t distribution is an univariate t distribution with mean and variance equal to the
corresponding components of the mean and covariance of the multivariate t distribution, so q(x̃j |z̃ =
k, c̃, x, c) and q(c̃j |z̃ = k, x, c) take the following forms:
These marginal distributions of the variational posterior predictive densities enable useful visualisations
of the variational posterior predictive density in high dimensions that will be presented in Section 5.
4 Theory
This section is dedicated to examining the convergence of the proposed CAVI algorithm to the true,
data generating parameters {πk∗ , µ∗k , Λ∗k , {ψk,g ∗
}g }k as the sample size n tends to infinity, assuming the
data have been generated according to Equation (1). For ease of presentation we assume there is p = 1
categorical variable with d categorical PK values. We also assume Pd d and K, the number of components K is
correctly specified, so πk∗ > 0, k=1 πk∗ = 1 and ψk,g ∗
> 0, g=1 ψk,g ∗
= 1 for 1 ≤ k ≤ K and 1 ≤ g ≤ d.
Our approach follows that of Titterington and Wang [2006], who developed convergence results for a
CAVI algorithm for a Gaussian mixture model. In particular, we extend Theorem 1 of Titterington and
Wang [2006] to the case of mixed type data involving mixtures of Gaussian distributed continuous data
and categorical data that are conditionally independent within each mixture.
The CAVI algorithm derived in the previous section iteratively updates the variational hyperparame-
ters α̂k , m̂k , β̂k , Φ̂k , ν̂k , η̂k,g . Denoting with an upper-script t the value of these hyperparameters at the
t-th iteration of the CAVI algorithm, α̂kt , m̂tk , β̂kt , Φ̂tk , ν̂kt , η̂k,g
t
are deterministic functions of α̂kt−1 , m̂t−1
k ,
t−1 t−1 t−1 t−1
β̂k , Φ̂k , ν̂k , η̂k,g where the transformation is computed by evaluating the intermediate quantities
(t−1)
rik . In this section, instead of directly working with the variational hyper-parameters, we will focus
6
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
Note that these quantities are related to the variational hyperparameter estimates from CAVI:
deterministic transformation T which encapsulates our proposed CAVI algorithm. In the following we
define this function T more formally. To do so we introduce some vectorized notation and define the
required vector space for the domain of our function. We drop the upper script t so that the quantities
such as π̂k represent a generic input to the function T .
Let π̂k ∈ R, µ̂k ∈ Rq , Λ̂k ∈ S n (R), the set of real, symmetric q by q matrices, and ψ̂k ∈ Rd . Next, let
Sπ , Sµ , SΛ , Sψ be the K-fold direct sums of R, Rq , S n (R), Rd respectively. Then we define the following
vectors:
∗
π̂1
µ̂1
Λ̂1
ψ̂1 π̂ π
.. .. .. .. µ̂ ∗ µ∗
π̂ = . , µ̂ = . , Λ̂ = . , ψ̂ = . , Θ = Λ̂, Θ = Λ∗
(21)
π̂K µ̂K Λ̂K ψ̂K ψ̂ ψ ∗
L L L
so that π̂ ∈ Sπ , µ̂ ∈ Sµ , Λ̂ ∈ SΛ , ψ̂ ∈ Sψ . Θ belongs to direct sum space Sπ Sµ SΛ Sψ . We also
let Θ∗ be the true data generating parameter of the likelihood Equation (1). As the notation implies,
Sπ , Sµ , SL
Λ , SψLare vector
L spaces which contain possible values of the corresponding parameters π̂, µ̂, Λ̂, ψ̂
and Sπ Sµ SΛ Sψ a vector space which contains the possible values of the overall parameter Θ.
(t−1)
As the rik are functions of the variational hyperparameters at t − 1, they are also functions of
(t−1)
Θ , so from here on we will use notation such as rik (Θt−1 ) = rik
t−1
or rik (Θ) when highlighting the
dependence of rik on Θ1 . Let:
n Pn Pn
1X rik (Θ)xi I{c =g} rik (Θ)
Πk (Θ) = rik (Θ), Mk (Θ) = Pn i=1
, Ψk (Θ)g = i=1 Pn i
n i=1 i=1 rik (Θ) i=1 rik (Θ)
n
X n
X
Sk (Θ) = ( rik (Θ))( rik (Θ)(xi − Mk (Θ))(xi − Mk (Θ))T )−1 (22)
i=1 i=1
1 Note r (Θ) is not defined for all Θ as some Θ outside the support of the prior results in variational hyperparameters
ik
outside the hyperparameter space, but for those Θ we can trivially map rik (Θ) to a value like 1/K.
7
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
These functions denote the maps which takes the simplified estimates Θ(t) from one iteration to the next.
Vectorising these maps:
Π1 (Θ) M1 (Θ) S1 (Θ) Ψ1 (Θ)
Π(Θ) = ... , M (Θ) = .. . .
, S(Θ) = .. , Ψ(Θ) = .. (23)
.
ΠK (Θ) MK (Θ) SK (Θ) ΨK (Θ)
For theoretical purposes we consider a generalised iterative procedure, the map T ϵ defined for 0 < ϵ < 2
as:
Note T 1 (Θ(t−1) ) = T (Θ(t−1) ), so that ϵ = 1 is our CAVI algorithm. It is suggested in Titterington and
Wang [2006] that different choices of ϵ could improve convergence rate relative to the base case of ϵ = 1,
but we do not investigate this in this paper. L L L
For our convergence analysis, we need to define a suitable norm on Sπ Sµ SΛ Sψ . To define
this norm, consider the following inner products:
1
⟨u1 , u2 ⟩πk = u1 ( )u2 u1 , u2 ∈ R
πk∗
⟨v1 , v2 ⟩µk = v1T (πk∗ Λ∗k )v2 v1 , v2 ∈ Rq
π∗
⟨W1 , W2 ⟩Λk = k T r(W1 Λ∗−1 k W2 Λ∗−1
k ) W1 , W2 ∈ S n (R) :
2
π∗
⟨a2 , a2 ⟩ψk = aT1 diag( k∗ )a2 a1 , a2 ∈ Rd (26)
ψk
π∗ ∗
πk
where diag( ψk∗ ) is a d by d diagonal matrix with entries ∗
ψk,g , g = 1, . . . , d. We can easily show that
k
2
⟨WL1 , W2 ⟩L
Λk is indeed
L an inner product. Using the above inner products, we define ⟨B1 , B2 ⟩, on B1 , B2 ∈
Sπ Sµ SΛ Sψ by simply adding the inner products of the constituent spaces:
K
X K
X K
X K
X
⟨., .⟩ = ⟨., .⟩πk + ⟨., .⟩µk + ⟨., .⟩Λk + ⟨., .⟩ψk (27)
k=1 k=1 k=1 k=1
8
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
The proof of Theorem 1 is contained in the supplement. The proof strategy involves showing that
with probability 1 as n → ∞, the map T ϵ (Θ) is locally contractive near Θ∗ . Specifically, there exists
0 ≤ λ < 1 such that:
for Θ sufficiently near Θ∗ . To show Equation (28), by Taylor’s theorem (see P315 of Bhatia [1997]), we
have:
It is therefore sufficient to show ∇T ϵ (Θ∗ ) converges with probability 1 (as n → ∞) to an operator that
has operator norm less than 1.
The vector norm that we use in the context of Equation (28) and Equation (29) is induced by the inner
product defined in Equation (27). Similarly, the operator norm used in Equation (29) on ∥∇T ϵ (Θ∗ )∥op
is defined as the operator norm with respect to the vector norm, so:
M M M
∥A∥op = sup{∥AB∥ : ∥B∥ ≤ 1, B ∈ Sπ Sµ SΛ Sψ } (30)
Theorem 1 gives rise to the following corollary, whose proof can be found in the supplement:
Corollary 1. Given Theorem 1, the variational posterior mean of the CAVI algorithm also converges to
the true data generating parameter Θ∗ .
5 Experimental Results
In this section, we conduct simulation experiments to assess and validate our method. For all simu-
lated data in this section, the continuous part of the data was standardised before fitting the model.
Throughout this section we take the following values for the prior hyperparameters: mk = 0 for all k,
β = 1, Φ = 0.25I, ν = q + K + 1, α = 1/K, ηj = 1/dj , where dj is the number of possible values of
the jth categorical variable. We also initialise the CAVI algorithm using the Kprototypes algorithm, by
setting the initial rik to be equal to 0.9 at the k that Kprototypes predicts for each data point (xi , ci ),
and 0.1 otherwise.3 In this section, we will generally use Σk = Λ−1
k to refer to the covariance matrix of
component k to more easily compare the size of the component covariance compared to how much the
component means {µk }k are separated.
9
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
Density
300
60
200
40
20 100
0 0
−0.965 −0.960 −0.955 −0.950 −0.945 −0.940 0.022 0.023 0.024 0.025 0.026 0.027
Value Value
150
Density
Density
40
100
20
50
0 0
0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.030 0.035 0.040 0.038 0.040 0.042 0.044 0.046 0.048 0.050 0.052
Value Value
Density
20 40
10 20
0 0
1.45 1.46 1.47 1.48 1.49 1.50 1.51 0.110 0.115 0.120 0.125 0.130 0.135 0.140 0.145 0.150
Value Value
Figure 1: Plot of marginal posterior distribution of µ and Σ for both variational inference and Gibbs
Density
20
20
10 10
0 0
0.56 0.58 0.60 0.62 0.64 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.24
Value Value
Density
20
10
10
0 0
0.18 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.56 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.63
Value Value
Density
20
20
10 10
0 0
0.17 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23
Value Value
Figure 2: Plot of marginal posterior distribution of ψ1,g , ψ2,g for both variational inference and Gibbs
10
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
Density
20 30
20
10
10
0 0
0.16 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.43
Value Value
Density
20
30
20
10
10
0 0
0.18 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.35
Value Value
Density
15
10
20
5
0 0
0.56 0.58 0.60 0.62 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28
Value Value
Figure 3: Plot of marginal posterior distribution of ψ3,g , π for both variational inference and Gibbs
1.25 0.8
1.00
Density
Density
0.6
0.75
0.4
0.50
0.2
0.25
0.00 0.0
−1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
x x
posterior predictive of c
0.5
Distribution of x given c=2 variational posterior predictive q(c̃|x, c)
true p(c)
0.7 True p(x|c, µ∗ , Λ∗ , ψ ∗ , π ∗ ) empirical distribution of c
Variational posterior predictive q(x̃|c̃, x, c) 0.4
0.6 Empirical Data
0.5
0.3
Probability
0.4
Density
0.3 0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
−1 0 1 2 Category 1 Category 2 Category 3
x
Figure 4: Comparison of the variational posterior predictive distribution of x given c, and c to the
empirical data and the likelihood function evaluated at the data generating parameters.
11
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
test the model in the case where the mixtures are largely driven by separation across different
components in the continuous variables rather than categorical variables.
• For the second scenario, we instead use Σ∗k with standard deviations that are larger than the pairwise
distance between µ∗k , so data generated from the mixture components substantially overlap. In
contrast, the categorical variables are generated in a way to heavily correlate with the mixture
component assignments. The idea of this scenario is to test the model in the case where the
mixtures are largely driven by the categorical variables rather than the continuous variables.
• For the third scenario, we simulate data using parameters that is a middle ground between sce-
narios 1 and 2. Specifically, we use µ∗k with separation that are similar in magnitude compared to
the standard deviations of Σ∗k , causing some continuous data overlap. We define a single categor-
ical variable which is significantly correlated with the mixture component z, but not as strongly
correlated compared to scenario 2.
In order to assess the empirical performance of our algorithm, we employ several performance mea-
sures. First, to test parameter estimation, we calculate for π, µ, Σ, ψ the mean absolute error between
the posterior mean of the variational posterior and the true parameter values:
∗ ∗
K K
1 X ∗ 1 X ∗ Φ̂k
Errorµ = ∥µk − m̂k ∥1 ErrorΣ = 2 ∗ Σk − (31)
qK ∗ q K ν̂k − q − 1
k=1 k=1 1
∗ dj ∗
K K Xp X
1 X ∗ α̂k 1 X
∗ η̂k,j,gj
Errorπ = ∗ |πk − PK | Errorψ = Pp ∗
|ψk,j,g − Pdj |
K k=1 α̂k
( d
j=1 j )K j=1 g =1
j
′ η̂k,j,g′
k=1 k=1 j gj =1 j
Secondly, to test clustering capability, we compare for each data point the true component label zi∗
with the highest variational posterior probability (‘hard clustering’), given by arg maxk rik . We use
P ropz to denote the proportion of data points for which the component label matches the true com-
ponent label. Third, to assess the density estimation, we sample additional sample size test data
ntest = min(0.4n, 2000) and calculate for each data point (x̃i , c̃i ) in the test dataset, the mean ab-
solute error between the loglikelihood for Equation (1) evaluated at the true data generating parameters
(µ∗ , Λ∗ , ψ ∗ , π ∗ ), and log of the posterior predictive distribution in Equation (17) using the final parameter
estimates obtained from running Algorithm 1 in the training set. We calculate the average of this error
over the test set Errorlogppd :
nX
test
1
Errorlogppd = |ln(p(x̃i , c̃i |µ∗ , Λ∗ , ψ ∗ , π ∗ )) − ln(q(x̃i , c̃i |x, c))| (32)
ntest i=1
Lastly, to assess the uncertainty quantification over the parameters (µ, Σ, ψ, π), we examine the fre-
quentist coverage of the posterior highest density intervals (HDI) of µ, Σ, ψ, π by counting the proportion
of 95% variational posterior HDI containing the data generating parameter values over 100 runs of the
variational inference procedure for independent datasets. Conveniently, the variational posterior density
q(µ, Λ, ψ, π) as well as the marginal variational posterior densities q(µ), q(Λ), q(ψ), and q(π) are all
available in closed form, which allows us to easily calculate the HDI and check the frequentist coverage
of µ, Σ, ψ, π jointly as well as individually.
Note that the model likelihood in Equation (1) is invariant under any permutation σ on 1, . . . , K
K
X p
Y K
X p
Y
πσ(k) N (xi |µσ(k) , Λ−1
σ(k) ) ψσ(k),j,cij = πk N (xi |µk , Λ−1
k ) ψk,j,cij (33)
k=1 j=1 k=1 j=1
When the model is correctly specified, this non identifiability of the likelihood usually causes the estimated
model parameters from Algorithm 1 to correspond to the true parameters up to a permutation. Because
of this, when reporting errors metrics listed or checking the frequentist coverage of posterior HDI on
simulated data, we match the permuted parameters with the true parameters via linear sum assignment
between the estimated m̂k and the true µ∗k , and we use the resulting permutation σ to relabel Λ, ψ, and
π.
We calculate the aforementioned error metrics and report the average over 100 runs for the three
scenarios, for sample sizes n = 2500, 5000, 10000, 20000 assuming that the number of component K = K ∗
12
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
is known a priori. For n = 5000, we also compare the results to the case where the inference procedure
is run with K = 2K ∗ to see how the algorithm performs when the number of clusters is misspecified. To
assess the competitiveness of our method, we compare the point estimation errors with the Expectation-
Maximization (EM) algorithm of Hunt and Jorgensen [1999], which unlike our method does not provide
uncertainty quantification. We also compare both the point estimation error and coverage with MCMC,
in this case a Gibbs sampler. MCMC is in a sense the gold standard in Bayesian inference as the empirical
distribution of its samples converges to the true posterior with infinite computational power. For the
Gibbs sampler, the posterior mean is used as the point estimate when calculating the errors, and for
P ropz , the last sample of z is used. Errorlogppd is not calculated for the Gibbs sampler as the posterior
predictive density is not available in closed form, and for coverage only the overall HDI is calculated,
using the joint density instead of the posterior as it is proportional to the posterior, while the true
posterior is unavailable in closed form.
Table 1: Various error metrics averaged over 100 runs for various sample sizes n, scenario 1
overall π Σ µ ψ
n = 2500, VI 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.97 0.92
n = 5000, VI 0.08 0.97 0.02 0.96 0.98
n = 5000, Gibbs 0.49
n = 10000, VI 0.37 0.95 0.2 0.91 0.96
n = 20000, VI 0.61 0.97 0.57 0.92 0.96
Table 2: Frequentist coverage of 95% HDI over 100 runs for various sample sizes n, scenario 1
For scenario 1, from Table 1, it can be seen that our approach accurately estimates the parameters
(µ, Σ, ψ, π), and the error decreases as the sample size n increases for all parameters. Our approach
manages to predict the true mixture components for almost all the data points, which is perhaps un-
surprising as the data is well separated in continuous space. The true log-likelihood is reasonably well
estimated by the log posterior predictive density, which, for comparison with the size of the error, has an
average absolute value of 4.6 in the test datasets. The errors for the case with the misspecified number
of clusters K are only marginally higher than the case with correctly specified K with the same sample
size, with P ropz still very close to 1, indicating that the variational posterior is still able to converge to
the true number of clusters. In general, our approach performs very similar to the EM algorithm of Hunt
and Jorgensen [1999] as well as the Gibbs sampler in terms of the point estimation error. From Table 2,
we observed that the frequentist coverage is close to 95% for all parameters except Σ, which nevertheless
achieves reasonable coverage as sample size is increased to 20000. This could be due to Σ having higher
dimension compared to the other parameters, making it more difficult to estimate. Similarly, the overall
coverage appears to be bottlenecked by the coverage of Σ. The Gibbs sampler achieves considerably
higher overall coverage for the case N = 5000, which is perhaps not unexpected, as variational inference
approaches are known to underestimate variance, although still considerably lower than 95
For scenario 2, from Table 3 we observe that our approach again achieves good point estimation of
the parameters (µ, Λ, ψ, π) for scenario 2, with the error decreasing as the sample size n increases for all
parameters. The proportion of data points with the correctly predicted hard component is somewhat
lower than scenario 1, which may be due to the highly overlapping nature of the data across different
13
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
Table 3: Various error metrics averaged over 100 runs for various sample sizes n, scenario 2
overall π Σ µ ψ
n = 2500, VI 0.23 0.90 0.57 0.85 0.47
n = 5000, VI 0.38 0.84 0.73 0.83 0.54
n = 5000, Gibbs 0.63
n = 10000, VI 0.39 0.9 0.78 0.84 0.51
n = 20000, VI 0.47 0.86 0.75 0.91 0.55
Table 4: Frequentist coverage of 95% HDI over 100 runs for various sample sizes n, scenario 2
components in continuous space, but is still very high. The log posterior predictive density has absolute
value 11.6 on the test dataset on average, so the log posterior predictive distribution is able to estimate
the true log likelihood with lower error on average compared to scenario 1. Like in scenario 1, when
n = 5000, the errors for our VI approach is almost identical to the error for the EM algorithm and for
the Gibbs sampler showing our approach performs very competitively in terms of point estimation. In
addition the errors in the case when the number of clusters K is misspecified are very similar to the
correctly specified case.
In terms of frequentist coverage, from Table 4, it can be seen that the coverage of π and µ are close to
95%, albeit somewhat worse compared to scenario 1. Interestingly, Σ has better coverage than scenario
1, but ψ has considerably worse coverage, which could be due to ψ having much higher dimension in
scenario 2 compared to scenario 1. Again the Gibbs sampler achieves higher overall frequentist coverage
as expected.
Table 5: Various error metrics averaged over 100 runs for various sample sizes n, scenario 3
overall π Σ µ ψ
n = 2500, VI 0.48 0.90 0.49 0.87 0.85
n = 5000, VI 0.52 0.92 0.58 0.88 0.86
n = 5000, Gibbs 0.60
n = 10000, VI 0.68 0.90 0.74 0.82 0.90
n = 20000, VI 0.64 0.95 0.73 0.87 0.86
Table 6: Frequentist coverage of 95% HDI over 100 runs for various sample sizes n, scenario 3
For scenario 3, from Table 5, as for the previous scenarios we observe that good point estimation of
the parameters (µ, Λ, ψ, π) is achieved with the error decreasing as the sample size n increases for all
parameters. The proportion of data points with the correctly predicted hard mixture component is close
14
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
to 100%, and the error in log posterior predictive density is low compared to the average absolute log
posterior predictive density on the test set of 7.3. The errors for the misspecified K case is somewhat
higher but still close to the correctly specified K case, EM and the Gibbs sampler, which agree strongly.
In terms of frequentist coverage, from Table 6 the posterior HDI is able to achieve reasonably good
coverage for all parameters, though Σ like in scenario 1 is the most difficult parameter to achieve good
coverage. The difference in overall coverage between VI and Gibbs is also the smallest in this case.
15
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
Radar Plots for marginal posterior predictive means and 80.0% credible interval in empirical distribution probability, per cluster
Cluster 1 ,0.000807 Cluster 2 ,0.000578 Cluster 3 ,0.0833 Cluster 4 ,0.0742 Cluster 5 ,0.228
hba1c WHtR hba1c WHtR hba1c WHtR hba1c WHtR hba1c WHtR
hdl height hdl height hdl height hdl height hdl height
100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
75% 75% 75% 75% 75%
50% 50% 50% 50% 50%
25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
non_hdl 0% bmi non_hdl 0% bmi non_hdl 0% bmi non_hdl 0% bmi non_hdl 0% bmi
sbp pulse sbp pulse sbp pulse sbp pulse sbp pulse
dbp eGFR dbp eGFR dbp eGFR dbp eGFR dbp eGFR
Cluster 6 ,0.0534 Cluster 7 ,0.127 Cluster 8 ,0.109 Cluster 9 ,0.136 Cluster 10 ,0.189
hba1c WHtR hba1c WHtR hba1c WHtR hba1c WHtR hba1c WHtR
hdl height hdl height hdl height hdl height hdl height
100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
75% 75% 75% 75% 75%
50% 50% 50% 50% 50%
25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
non_hdl 0% bmi non_hdl 0% bmi non_hdl 0% bmi non_hdl 0% bmi non_hdl 0% bmi
sbp pulse sbp pulse sbp pulse sbp pulse sbp pulse
dbp eGFR dbp eGFR dbp eGFR dbp eGFR dbp eGFR
Mean 10.0 to 90.0% Quantile
Figure 5: Radar plots of the marginal posterior predictive distribution of each continuous variable,
conditioned on cluster component. The posterior mean of each πk is also added atop each radar plot. The
concentric circles and quantiles in each radar plot represents the quantiles of the empirical distribution of
the whole data. For the sake of visual consistency, the distribution of height, eGFR and hdl are reversed
so that higher values in the radar plot for all continuous variables correspond to higher risk of chronic
diseases.
Probability
Probability
Probability
Probability 0.544
0.415 0.385
0.4 0.346 0.347
0.292 0.293 0.269
0.2 0.180
0.132 0.109
0.056 0.056
0.0
0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2
k=6 k=7 k=8 k=9 k=10
1.0
0.8
0.6 0.571
Probability
Probability
Probability
Probability
Probability
0.496
0.450 0.422 0.438
0.4 0.319 0.323 0.338
0.255 0.240 0.278
0.231 0.224 0.227
0.189
0.2
0.0
0 1 2 never0 smoked1 2former smoker0 1current 2smoker 0 Empirical
1 proportion
2 0 1 2
Figure 6: Barplot of the marginal posterior predictive distribution of smoking status, conditioned on
cluster component.
posterior means for WHtR and BMI, along with relatively high HDL, whereas cluster 4 exhibits posterior
means for WHtR and BMI that are closer to the population median but still somewhat elevated, and close
to median level of HDL. Cluster 8 is characterized by very high posterior means for systolic and diastolic
blood pressure, BMI, and WHtR, but near-median levels of HbA1c and cholesterol, distinguishing it from
clusters 4 and 6. Smoking distributions for all three clusters are similar.
16
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
Clusters 7 and 3 are characterized by below-median values for most continuous variables, reflecting
generally healthier profiles. Cluster 3 differs from cluster 7 by having higher posterior means for systolic
and diastolic blood pressure and pulse. Individuals in cluster 3 are also more likely to be current smokers,
whereas smoking status in cluster 7 is more evenly distributed, with no clear dominance of one category.
6 Discussion
We have developed a scalable, coordinate ascent variational inference algorithm for mixed data mixture
models that allows both the continuous and categorical variables to influence the make up of each
component or cluster. We have conducted simulation study under scenarios where the heterogenenity
in the mixture components are driven by the continuous data, the categorical data, or a combination
of both respectively. Through these simulation studies, we demonstrated that our proposed approach is
able to conduct good density estimation, and estimate the underlying parameters well and competitively
with Gibbs sampler and an existing EM algorithm, even when the number of mixtures is incorrectly
specified. While our method performs somewhat worse than the Gibbs sampler in terms of frequentist
coverage, it is nevertheless able to produce adequate levels of overall coverage, and most of the marginal
95% HDI are able to higher levels of coverage, often close to 95%. Our proposed VI approach is also
more computationally scalable than the Gibbs sampler.
We demonstrated the real world utility of our approach by applying it on a challenging dataset of risk
factor data of US participants in the NHANES study. We showed our method can produce epidemiolog-
ically interpretable clusters, which is crucial when clustering epidemiological datasets. We visualized the
heterogeneity between the different clusters using marginal posterior predictive distributions, which takes
into account posterior uncertainty, something that is often missed. However, while the medians of each
continuous marginal posterior predictive distribution is distinguishable across clusters, the uncertainty
quantification becomes very conservative for large probability credible intervals, causing the uncertainty
quantification across different clusters to be less distinguishable.
Furthermore, we established a theoretical convergence result for our method, showing that the pos-
terior mean from the CAVI algorithm converge to the true parameter value as the sample size n tends
to infinity. This provides formal justification for the validity of the algorithm.
One future research direction could include developing VI approaches that enforces more separa-
tion between the clusters in continuous space, which could produce more distinguishable uncertainty
quantification across different clusters. Another research direction could be to extend the approach to
infinite mixtures such as Dirichlet Processes, making it easier to select a suitable number of mixture
components.
Acknowledgements This work was supported by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC), under
the grant ‘Worldwide phenotypes and transitions in obesity-related multimorbidity’, reference number
MR/V034057/1. The authors are grateful to Majid Ezzati and Bin Zhou for useful discussions.
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Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
K
X p
Y
p(xi , ci |µ, Λ, ψ, π) = πk N (xi |µk , Λ−1
k ) ψk,j,cij (34)
k=1 j=1
We assume the variational posterior is of the form q(µ, Λ, ψ, π, z) = q(µ, Λ, ψ, π)q(z). The exact
distributional families of the variational posterior need not to be specified and will come out during
the derivation. To derive its form we use CAVI with two blocks, so we alternate between updating
q(µ, Λ, ψ, π) and q(z).
From this it’s clear q(µ, Λ, ψ, π) = q(µ, Λ)q(ψ)q(π), each term in this product can therefore be derived
separately as follows:
For q(π):
20
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
From here we first derive a conjugate Gaussian posterior for each µk |Λk , and subsequently the leftover
terms can be ‘absorbed’ into the Wishart prior to form a conjugate Wishart posterior for Λk . For each
µk , the relevant terms are:
21
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
n
nX o
q(µk |Λk ) ∝ exp rik ln(N (xi |µk , Λ−1
k )) + ln(N (µk |mk , β
−1 −1
Λk ))
i=1
n
nX 1 1 1
∝ exp rik [ ln(det(Λk )) − (xi − µk )T Λk (xi − µk )] + ln(det(βΛk ))
i=1
2 2 2
1 o
− (µk − mk )T βΛk (µk − mk )
2
n 1 Xn X n
∝ exp − [µTk (β + rik )Λk µk + (−βmTk − rik xTi )Λk µk )
2 i=1 i=1
n
X n
X
+ µTk Λk (−βmk − rik xi ) + mTk βΛk mk + xTi rik Λk xi ]
i=1 i=1
n
X 1 1 o
+ rik ( ln(det(Λk )) + ln(det(βΛk ))
i=1
2 2
n 1 n
1 X
∝ exp ( ln(det(βΛk )) − (µk − m̂k )T (β + rik )Λk (µk − m̂k )
2 2 i=1
n n n
1 T
X
T T
X X o
− [−m̂k (β + rik )Λk m̂k + mk βΛk mk + xi rik Λk xi − rik ln(det(Λk ))] (39)
2 i=1 i=1 i=1
βmk + n
P
r xj
Where m̂k = Pnj=1 jk .
The first two terms in the last expression of the derivation above forms
β+ j=1 rjk
Pn
a conjugate posterior µk |Λk ∼ N (µk |m̂k , β̂k−1 Λ−1 −1
k ), where β̂k = (β + j=1 rjk )
−1
(the determinant term
is correct up to a constant that does not depend on Λk ). The second line in the last expression contains
the leftover terms that need to be ‘absorbed’ by the Wishart prior, which we will see in the derivation
for q(Λk ) as follows:
For q(Λk ):
n
n 1 X
q(Λk ) ∝ exp ln(W(Λk |ν, Φ−1 )) − [−m̂Tk (β + rik )Λk m̂k + mTk βΛk mk
2 i=1
n
X n
X o
+ xTi rik Λk xi − rik ln(det(Λk ))]
i=1 i=1
nν − q − 1 n
1 1 X
∝ exp ln(det(Λk )) − T r(ΦΛk ) − [−m̂Tk (β + rik )Λk m̂k + mTk βΛk mk
2 2 2 i=1
n
X n
X o
+ xTi rik Λk xi − rik ln(det(Λk ))]
i=1 i=1
n ν − q − 1 + Pn r n
i=1 ik 1 X
∝ exp ln(det(Λk )) − T r ΦΛk − (β + rik )m̂k m̂Tk Λk + βmk mTk Λk
2 2 i=1
n
X o
+ rik xi xTi Λk (40)
i=1
where in the last line we used the cyclic propertyPof trace. The last line is also in the form of a
n
Wishart distribution with degree of freedom ν̂k = ν + i=1 rik and scale matrix Φ̂−1
k , where
n
X n
X
Φ̂k = Φ − (β + rik )m̂k m̂Tk + βmk mTk + rik xi xTi
i=1 i=1
22
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
n o
q(ψ) ∝ exp Ez [lnp(c|ψ, z) + lnp(ψ)]
nX p
K X
n X p
K X
X o
∝ exp rik ln(ψk,j,cij ) + ln(Dir(ψk,j |ηj , . . . , ηj )) (41)
i=1 k=1 j=1 k=1 j=1
n
nX o
q(ψk,j ) ∝ exp rik ln(ψk,j,cij ) + ln(Dir(ψk,j |ηj , . . . , ηj ))
i=1
n
nX dj o
X
q(ψk,j ) ∝ exp rik ln(ψk,j,cij ) + (ηj − 1)ln(ψk,j,g )
i=1 g=1
dj
n X
nX dj o
X
q(ψk,j ) ∝ exp I{cij =g} rik ln(ψk,j,g ) + (ηj − 1)ln(ψk,j,g )
i=1 g=1 g=1
dj
nX n o
X
q(ψk,j ) ∝ exp (ηj − 1 + I{cij =g} rik )ln(ψk,j,g ) (42)
g=1 i=1
Now that we have the update equations for q(µ, Λ, ψ, π), we can derive the update for q(z). This
will require the forms of the variational posterior q(µ, Λ, ψ, π) we just derived above in order to evaluate
expectations with respect to q(µ, Λ, ψ, π), in order to obtain an expression for rik :
n o
q(z) ∝ exp E−z lnp(x, c, z, µ, Λ, ψ, π)
n o
∝ exp Eµ,Λ,ψ,π [ln(p(x|c, z, µ, Λ)p(µ|Λ)p(Λ)p(c|ψ, z)p(ψ)p(z|π)p(π))]
n o
∝ exp Eµ,Λ [ln(p(x|c, z, µ, Λ)p(µ|Λ)p(Λ))] + Eψ [ln(p(c|ψ, z)p(ψ))] + Eπ [ln(p(z|π)p(π))]
n o
∝ exp Eµ,Λ [ln(p(x|c, z, µ, Λ))] + Eψ [ln(p(c|ψ, z))] + Eπ [ln(p(z|π))]
nX K
n X n X
X p
K X X K
n X o
∝ exp zik Eµ,Λ [ln(N (xi |µk , Λk−1 ))] + zik Eψ [ln(ψk,j,cij )] + zik Eπ [ln(πk )]
i=1 k=1 i=1 k=1 j=1 i=1 k=1
(43)
where in the penultimate expression we dropped terms which do not depend on z. At this point the
expression of q(z) essentially boils down to evaluating the three expectations Eµ,Λ [ln(N (xi |µk , Λ−1
k ))],
Eψ [ln(ψk,j,cij )] and Eπ [ln(πk )].
n 1 o
Eµ,Λ [ln(N (xi |µk , Λ−1
k ))] = Eµ,Λ [ln (2π)
−q/2
det(Λk )1/2 exp(− (xi − µk )T Λk (xi − µk )) ]
2
q 1 1 T
= − ln(2π) + EΛk [ln(det(Λk ))] − Eµ,Λ [ (xi − µk ) Λk (xi − µk )] (44)
2 2 2
Pq
It is well known that if Λ ∼ W(ν, Φ−1 ), then EΛ [ln(det(Λ))] = qln(2)+ln(det(Φ−1 ))+ i=1 𭟋( ν+1−i 2 ),
where 𭟋(x) is the digamma function. Since Λk ∼ W(ν̂k , Φ̂−1 k ), we have
Pq
EΛk [ln(det(Λk ))] = qln(2) + ln(det(Φ̂−1 k )) + i=1 𭟋( ν̂k +1−i
2 )
As for Eµ,Λ [ 12 (xi − µk )T Λk (xi − µk )], we have:
23
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
1
Eµ,Λ [ (xi − µk )T Λk (xi − µk )]
Z2Z
1
= (xi − µk )T Λk (xi − µk )q(µk , Λk )dµk dΛk
2
1
ZZ
= (xi − m̂k + m̂k − µk )T Λk (xi − m̂k
2
+ m̂k − µk )q(µk , Λk )dµk dΛk
1
ZZ
= [(xi − m̂k )T Λk (xi − m̂k ) + 2(xi − m̂k )T Λk (m̂k − µk )+ (45)
2
(m̂k − µk )T Λk (m̂k − µk )]q(µk |Λk )q(Λk )dµk dΛk
1
ZZ
= [(xi − m̂k )T Λk (xi − m̂k )
2
+ T r((µk − m̂k )(µk − m̂k )T Λk )]q(µk |Λk )q(Λk )dµk dΛk
1
ZZ
= [(xi − m̂k )T Λk (xi − m̂k ) + T r(β̂k−1 Λ−1
k Λk )]q(Λk )dΛk
2
1
= [(xi − m̂k )T ν̂k Φ̂−1 −1
k (xi − m̂k ) + q β̂k ] (46)
2
Next we evaluate Eπ [ln(πk )] and Eψ [ln(ψk,j,cij )]. The expectation of the natural logarithm of a
PK
Dirichlet is well known, specifically if X ∼ Dir(α1 , . . . , αK ), then E(ln(Xi )) = 𭟋(αi ) − 𭟋( j=1 αj ).
With this, we have:
n
X K X
X n
Eπ [ln(πk )] = 𭟋(α + rik ) − 𭟋(Kα + rij ) (47)
i=1 j=1 i=1
n dj n
X X X
Eψ [ln(ψk,j,cij )] = 𭟋(ηj + I{csj =cij } rsk ) − 𭟋(dj ηj + I{csj =gj } rsk ) (48)
s=1 gj =1 s=1
Pn Pn
Recalling that q(π) ∼ Dir(α
Pn + i=1 ri1 , . . . , α + Pi=1 riK )
n
and q(ψk,j ) ∼ Dir(ηj + i=1 I{cij =1} rik , . . . , ηj + i=1 I{cij =dj } rik )
We return to the expression for q(z) now that we have all the required expectations:
n X
nX K n X
X p
K X n X
X K o
q(z) ∝ exp zik Eµ,Λ [ln(N (xi |µk , Λk−1 ))] + zik Eψ [ln(ψk,j,cij )] + zik Eπ [ln(πk )]
i=1 k=1 i=1 k=1 j=1 i=1 k=1
n Y
Y K n p
X o
q(z) ∝ exp zik Eµ,Λ [ln(N (xi |µk , Λk−1 ))] + zik Eψ [ln(ψk,j,cij )] + zik Eπ [ln(πk )]
i=1 k=1 j=1
n Y
Y K n Y
Y K
q(z) ∝ exp(zik ln(ρik )) = ρzikik (49)
i=1 k=1 i=1 k=1
where
n p
X o
ρik = exp Eµ,Λ [ln(N (xi |µk , Λ−1
k ))] + Eψ [ln(ψ k,j,c ij
)] + Eπ [ln(π k )] (50)
j=1
ρ
By observation, we have rik = PK ik
ρij
. With this, we can alternate between updating q(µ, Λ, ψ, π),
j=1
which depend on rik and the rik which depend on q(µ, Λ, ψ, π).
24
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
n X
X K
Eµ,Λ,z [ln(p(x|c, z, µ, Λ))] = rik Eµ,Λ [ln(N (xi |µk , Λ−1
k ))]
i=1 k=1
n X
K q
X n q 1 −1
X ν̂k + 1 − i
= rik − ln(2π) + [qln(2) + ln(det(Φ̂k )) + 𭟋( )]
i=1 k=1
2 2 i=1
2
1 o
− [(xi − m̂k )T ν̂k Φ̂−1
k (x i − m̂ k ) + q β̂ −1
k ] (53)
2
K
Y K
X
Eµ,Λ [ln(p(µ|Λ))] = Eµ,Λ [ln( N (µk |mk , β −1 Λ−1
k ))] = Eµ,Λ [ln(N (µk |mk , β −1 Λ−1
k ))]
k=1 k=1
K
X n 1 o
= Eµ,Λ [ln (2π)−q/2 det(βΛk )1/2 exp(− (µk − mk )T βΛk (µk − mk )) ]
2
k=1
K n
X q 1 1 o
= − ln(2π) + EΛ [ln(det(βΛk ))] + Eµ,Λ [− (µk − mk )T βΛk (µk − mk )]
2 2 2
k=1
K n
X q q 1
= − ln(2π) + ln(β) + EΛ [ln(det(Λk ))]
2 2 2
k=1
1 o
+ Eµ,Λ [− (µk − m̂k + m̂k − mk )T βΛk (µk − m̂k + m̂k − mk )]
2
K n
X q q 1 1
= − ln(2π) + ln(β) + EΛ [ln(det(Λk ))] + Eµ,Λ [− (µk − m̂k )T βΛk (µk − m̂k )]
2 2 2 2
k=1
1 o
− Eµ,Λ [(µk − m̂k )T βΛk (m̂k − mk )] − EΛ [ (m̂k − mk )T βΛk (m̂k − mk )]
2
K
X n q q 1 1
= − ln(2π) + ln(β) + EΛ [ln(det(Λk ))] − (T r(Eµ,Λ [(µk − m̂k )(µk − m̂k )T βΛk ]))
2 2 2 2
k=1
1 o
− EΛ [ (m̂k − mk )T βΛk (m̂k − mk )]
2
K n q
X q q 1 X ν̂k + 1 − i q
= − ln(2π) + ln(β) + [qln(2) + ln(det(Φ̂−1 k )) + 𭟋( )] − β̂k−1 β
2 2 2 i=1
2 2
k=1
1 o
− (m̂k − mk )T β ν̂k Φ̂−1
k (m̂k − mk ) (54)
2
25
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
K
Y K
X
EΛ [ln(p(Λ))] = EΛ [ln( W(Λk |ν, Φ−1 ))] = EΛk [ln(W(Λk |ν, Φ−1 ))]
i=1 i=1
K (ν−q−1)/2
X det(Λk ) exp(−T r(ΦΛk )/2)
= EΛk [ln( )]
i=1
2νq/2 det(Φ−1 )ν/2 Γq (ν/2)
K
X ν−q−1 1 νq ν
= EΛk [ ln(det(Λk )) − T r(ΦΛk ) − ln(2) − ln(det(Φ−1 )) − ln(Γq (ν/2))]
i=1
2 2 2 2
K n q
X ν−q−1 X ν̂k + 1 − i 1
= [qln(2) + ln(det(Φ̂−1
k )) + 𭟋( )] − T r(Φν̂k Φ̂−1
k )
i=1
2 i=1
2 2
νq ν −1
o
− ln(2) − ln(det(Φ )) − ln(Γq (ν/2)) (55)
2 2
q(q−1)/4
Qq
where Γq (a) = π j=1 Γ(a + (1 − j)/2)
n Y
Y p
K Y n X
X p
K X
zik
Eψ,z [ln(p(c|ψ, z))] = Eψ,z [ln( ψk,j,c ij
)] = rik Eψ [ln(ψk,j,cij )]
i=1 k=1 j=1 i=1 k=1 j=1
p
K X
n X n n dj n o
X X X X
= rik 𭟋(ηj + I{csj =cij } rsk ) − 𭟋(dj ηj + I{csj =gj } rsk ) (56)
i=1 k=1 j=1 s=1 gj =1 s=1
Y p
K Y p
K X
X
Eψ [ln(p(ψ))] = Eψ [ln( Dir(ψk,j |ηj , . . . , ηj ))] = Eψ [ln(Dir(ψk,j |ηj , . . . , ηj ))]
k=1 j=1 k=1 j=1
p
K X dj K Xp dj
X 1 Y ηj −1 X 1 X
= Eψ [ln( ψk,j,g )] = Eψ [ln( ) + (ηj − 1) ln(ψk,j,g )]
B(ηj ) g=1 B(ηj ) g=1
k=1 j=1 j=1 k=1
p
K X dj n dj n
X 1 Xn X X X o
= [ln( ) + (ηj − 1) 𭟋(ηj + I{csj =g} rsk ) − 𭟋(dj ηj + I{csj =gj } rsk ) ] (57)
j=1
B(ηj ) g=1 s=1 g =1 s=1
k=1 j
QK Qdj
Γ(αk ) g=1 Γ(ηj )
where B(α) = k=1
Γ( K
P , where with a slight abuse of notation we define B(ηj ) = Pdj and
k=1 αk ) Γ( g=1 ηj )
QK
Γ(α)
B(α) = k=1
Γ( K
P .
k=1 α)
n Y
Y K n X
X K
Eπ,z [ln(p(z|π))] = Eπ,z [ln( πkzik )] = rik Eπ [ln(πk )]
i=1 k=1 i=1 k=1
n X
X K n
X K X
X n
= rik [𭟋(α + rik ) − 𭟋(Kα + rij )] (58)
i=1 k=1 i=1 j=1 i=1
K
1 Y α−1
Eπ [ln(p(π))] = Eπ [ln(Dir(π|α, . . . , α))] = Eπ [ln( πk ))]
B(α)
k=1
K
1 X
= ln( )+ (α − 1)Eπ [ln(πk )]
B(α)
k=1
K n K X n
1 X X X
= ln( )+ (α − 1)[𭟋(α + rik ) − 𭟋(Kα + rij )] (59)
B(α) i=1 j=1 i=1
k=1
26
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
K
Y K
X
Eµ,Λ [ln(q(µ|Λ))] = Eµ,Λ [ln( N (µk |m̂k , β̂k−1 Λ−1
k )] = Eµ,Λ [ln(N (µk |m̂k , β̂k−1 Λ−1
k )]
k=1 k=1
K
X n 1 o
= Eµ,Λ [ln (2π)−q/2 det(β̂k Λk )1/2 exp(− (µk − m̂k )T β̂k Λk (µk − m̂k )) ]
2
k=1
K n
X q 1 1 o
= − ln(2π) + EΛ [ln(det(β̂k Λk ))] + Eµ,Λ [− (µk − m̂k )T β̂k Λk (µk − m̂k )]
2 2 2
k=1
K n
X q q 1 1 o
= − ln(2π) + ln(β̂k ) + EΛ [ln(det(Λk ))] + Eµ,Λ [− T r((µk − m̂k )(µk − m̂k )T β̂k Λk )]
2 2 2 2
k=1
K n
X q q 1 qo
= − ln(2π) + ln(β̂k ) + EΛ [ln(det(Λk ))] −
2 2 2 2
k=1
K n q
X q q 1 X ν̂k + 1 − i qo
= − ln(2π) + ln(β̂k ) + [qln(2) + ln(det(Φ̂−1
k )) + 𭟋( )] − (61)
2 2 2 i=1
2 2
k=1
K
Y K
X
EΛ [ln(q(Λ))] = EΛ [ ln(W(Λk |ν̂k , Φ̂−1
k ))] = EΛk [ln(W(Λk |ν̂k , Φ̂−1
k ))]
k=1 k=1
K
X det(Λk )(ν̂k −q−1)/2 exp(−T r(Φ̂k Λk )/2)
= EΛk [ln( )]
i=1 2ν̂k q/2 det(Φ̂−1
k )
ν̂k /2 Γ (ν̂ /2)
q k
K
X ν̂k − q − 1 1 ν̂k q ν̂k
= EΛk [ ln(det(Λk )) − T r(Φ̂k Λk ) − ln(2) − ln(det(Φ̂−1
k )) − ln(Γq (ν̂k /2))]
i=1
2 2 2 2
K n q
X ν̂k − q − 1 X ν̂k + 1 − i ν̂k q
= [qln(2) + ln(det(Φ̂−1
k )) + 𭟋( )] −
i=1
2 i=1
2 2
ν̂k q ν̂k o
− ln(2) − ln(det(Φ̂−1
k )) − ln(Γq (ν̂k /2)) (62)
2 2
Y p
K Y p
K X
X
Eψ [ln(q(ψ))] = Eψ [ln( Dir(ψk,j |η̂k,j,1 , . . . , η̂k,j,dj ))] = Eψ [ln(Dir(ψk,j |η̂k,j,1 , . . . , η̂k,j,dj ))]
k=1 j=1 k=1 j=1
p
K X dj K Xp dj
X 1 Y η̂k,j,g −1
X 1 X
= Eψ [ln( ψk,j,g )] = Eψ [ln( ) + (η̂k,j,g − 1) ln(ψk,j,g )]
B(ηk,j ) g=1 B(ηk,j ) g=1
k=1 j=1 j=1
k=1
p
K X dj n dj n
X 1 Xn X X X o
= [ln( ) + (η̂k,j,g − 1) 𭟋(ηj + I{csj =g} rsk ) − 𭟋(dj ηj + I{csj =gj } rsk ) ]
B(ηk,j ) g=1 s=1 g =1 s=1
k=1 j=1 j
(63)
Pn
where η̂k,j,g = ηj + i=1 I{cij =g} rik
27
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
n n K
X X 1 Y αk −1
Eπ [ln(q(π))] = Eπ [ln(Dir(π|α + ri1 , . . . , α + riK ))] = Eπ [ln( πk ))]
i=1 i=1
B(α)
k=1
K
1 X
= ln( )+ (αk − 1)Eπ [ln(πk )]
B(α)
k=1
K n K X n
1 X X X
= ln( )+ (αk − 1)[𭟋(α + rik ) − 𭟋(Kα + rij )] (64)
B(α) i=1 j=1 i=1
k=1
Pn
where α̂k = α + i=1 rik
n Y
Y K n X
X K n X
X K
zik
Ez [ln(q(z))] = Ez [ln( rik )] = Ez [zik ln(rik )] = rik ln(rik ) (65)
i=1 k=1 i=1 k=1 i=1 k=1
One can alternatively calculate some of the ELBO terms in a somewhat simplified way by pairing
them up and computing the KL divergence instead. Specifically:
The KL terms are all KL divergences of well known distributions with analytical expressions, which
can be evaluated as follows:
K
Y K
Y
EΛ [KL(q(µ|Λ) ∥ p(µ|Λ))] = EΛ [KL( N (µk |m̂k , β̂k−1 Λ−1
k )∥ N (µk |mk , β −1 Λ−1
k ))]
k=1 k=1
K
X
= EΛ [KL(N (µk |m̂k , β̂k−1 Λ−1
k ) ∥ N (µk |mk , β
−1 −1
Λk ))]
k=1
K
X 1n det(β −1 Λ−1
k ) T −1 −1
o
= EΛ [ln( ) − q + ( m̂k − m k ) βΛk (m̂ k − mk ) + T r(βΛ k β̂ k Λk )]
2
k=1
det(β̂k−1 Λ−1
k )
K
X 1n β −q det(Λ−1
k )
o
= EΛ [ln( −q −1
) − q + (m̂k − mk )T βΛk (m̂k − mk ) + qβ β̂k−1 ]
2 β̂k det(Λk )
k=1
K
X 1n o
= −qln(β) + qln(β̂k ) − q + (m̂k − mk )T β ν̂k Φ̂−1
k (m̂k − mk ) + qβ β̂ −1
k (68)
2
k=1
28
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
K
Y K
Y
KL(q(Λ) ∥ p(Λ)) = KL( W(Λk |ν̂k , Φ̂−1
k )∥ W(Λk |ν, Φ−1 ))
k=1 i=1
K
X
= KL(W(Λk |ν̂k , Φ̂−1
k ) ∥ W(Λk |ν, Φ
−1
))
k=1
K
X 1n
= νln(det(Φ−1 )) − νln(det(Φ̂−1 −1
k )) + ν̂k T r(ΦΦ̂k ) + 2ln(Γq (ν/2)) − 2ln(Γq (ν̂k /2))
2
k=1
q
X ν̂k + 1 − i o
+ (ν̂k − ν) 𭟋( ) − ν̂k q (69)
i=1
2
n
X n
X
KL(q(π) ∥ p(π)) = KL(Dir(π|α + ri1 , . . . , α + riK ) ∥ Dir(π|α, . . . , α))
i=1 i=1
K
X n
X K
X K
X K
X n
X
= ln(Γ( (α + rik ))) − ln(Γ( α)) + ln(Γ(α)) − ln(Γ(α + rik ))
k=1 i=1 k=1 k=1 k=1 i=1
K
X n
X n n
X K
X n
X o
+ (α + rik − α) 𭟋(α + rik )) − 𭟋( (α + rik ))
k=1 i=1 i=1 k=1 i=1
K X
X n K
X K
X n
X
= ln(Γ(Kα + rik )) − ln(Γ(Kα)) + ln(Γ(α)) − ln(Γ(α + rik ))
k=1 i=1 k=1 k=1 i=1
K X
X n n n
X K X
X n o
+ rik 𭟋(α + rik ) − 𭟋(Kα + rik ) (70)
k=1 i=1 i=1 k=1 i=1
Y p
K Y p
K Y
Y
KL(q(ψ) ∥ p(ψ)) = KL( Dir(ψk,j |η̂k,j,1 , . . . , η̂k,j,dj ) ∥ Dir(ψk,j |ηj , . . . , ηj ))
k=1 j=1 k=1 j=1
p
K X
X
= KL(Dir(ψk,j |η̂k,j,1 , . . . , η̂k,j,dj ) ∥ Dir(ψk,j |ηj , . . . , ηj ))
k=1 j=1
p
K X dj dj dj dj
X X X X X
= [ln(Γ( η̂k,j,gj )) − ln(Γ( ηj )) + ln(Γ(ηj )) − ln(Γ(η̂k,j,gj ))
k=1 j=1 gj =1 gj =1 gj =1 gj =1
dj n dj o
X X
+ (η̂k,j,gj − ηj ) 𭟋(η̂k,j,gj ) − 𭟋( η̂k,j,gj ) ]
gj =1 gj =1
p
K X dj n dj dj n
X X X X X X
= [ln(Γ( (ηj + I{csj =gj } rsk ))) − ln(Γ(dj ηj )) + ln(Γ(ηj )) − ln(Γ(ηj + I{csj =gj } rsk ))
k=1 j=1 gj =1 s=1 gj =1 gj =1 s=1
dj n n n dj n o
X X X X X
+ (ηj + I{csj =gj } rsk − ηj ) 𭟋(ηj + I{csj =gj } rsk ) − 𭟋( (ηj + I{csj =gj } rsk )) ]
gj =1 s=1 s=1 gj =1 s=1
p
K X dj n dj dj n
X X X X X X
= [ln(Γ(dj ηj + I{csj =gj } rsk )) − ln(Γ(dj ηj )) + ln(Γ(ηj )) − ln(Γ(ηj + I{csj =gj } rsk ))
k=1 j=1 gj =1 s=1 gj =1 gj =1 s=1
dj n n n dj n o
X X X X X
+ I{csj =gj } rsk 𭟋(ηj + I{csj =gj } rsk ) − 𭟋(dj ηj + I{csj =gj } rsk ) ] (71)
gj =1 s=1 s=1 gj =1 s=1
Pn
where η̂k,j,gj = ηj + s=1 I{csj =gj } rsk
29
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
This is just a discrete distribution so you normalise this probability by dividing by the sum of the
probabilities over k.
Next we update ψk,j for each 1 ≤ k ≤ K, 1 ≤ j ≤ p
Y
p(ψk,j |x, c, z, µ, Σ, π) ∝ p(ψk,j ) p(cij |zi = k, ψ)
i:zi =k
Y
∝ Dir(ψk,j |ηj , . . . , ηj ) ψk,j,cij (73)
i:zi =k
This is a Dirichlet prior with a categorical data likelihood, which gives a conjugate Dirichlet posterior.
In particular, the posterior is of the form:
n
X n
X
p(ψk,j |x, c, z, µ, Σ, π) ∼ Dir(ηj + I(cij = 1, zi = k), . . . , ηj + I(cij = ηj , zi = k)) (74)
i=1 i=1
Update µk , Σk in a block:
Y
p(µk , Σk |x, c, z, π, ψ) ∝ p(µk |Σk )p(Σk ) p(xi |zi = k, ci , µ, Σ)
i:zi =k
Y
∝ N (µk |mk , β0−1 Σk )IW(Σk |ν, Φ) N (xi |µk , Σk ) (75)
i:zi =k
This is a Normal-inverse Wishart prior with a Gaussian likelihood, which is conjugate and gives
another Normal-inverse Wishart posterior of the form:
P
β0 mk + i:zi =k xi Σk
p(µk |Σk , x, c, z, π, ψ) ∼ N (µk | , )
β0 + n k β0 + n k
X β0 n k
p(Σk |x, c, z, π, ψ) ∼ IW(Σk |ν + nk , Φ + (xi − x̄k )(xi − x̄k )T + (x̄k − mk )(x̄k − mk )T )
β0 + n k
i:zi =k
(76)
1
P
where x̄k = nk i:zi =k xi
Lastly, we update π:
n
Y
p(π|x, c, z, µ, γ, Σ, ψ, s) ∝ p(π) p(zi |π)
i=1
n
Y
∝ Dir(α, . . . , α) πzi (77)
i=1
30
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
Again like the ψ update this is a Dirichlet prior with categorical likelihood so we have conjugate
posterior:
n
X n
X
p(π|x, c, z, µ, γ, Σ, ψ, s) ∼ Dir(α + I(zi = 1), . . . , α + I(zi = K)) (78)
i=1 i=1
D Proof of Theorem 1
We have
∇π̂ Π ∇µ̂ Π ∇Λ̂ Π ∇ψ̂ Π
∇ π̂ M ∇µ̂ M ∇Λ̂ M ∇ψ̂ M
∇T ϵ (Θ) = (1 − ϵ)I + ϵ
∇π̂ S
(79)
∇µ̂ S ∇Λ̂ S ∇ψ̂ S
∇π̂ Ψ ∇µ̂ Ψ ∇Λ̂ Ψ ∇ψ̂ Ψ
(t−1) (t−1)
Because the gradient terms in ∇T ϵ (Θ) involves rik or the derivatives of rik , we need to calculate
(t−1) (t−1) (t−1)
the limit of rik and the derivatives of rik as n → ∞. We start with the limit of rik , recall that
(t−1) ρ (Θ(t−1) )
rik = rik (Θ(t−1) ) = PK ik (t−1) ) , where
j=1 ρij (Θ
n o
ρik (Θ) = exp Eµ,Λ [ln(N (xi |µk , Λ−1
k ))] + Eψ [ln(ψk,ci )] + Eπ [ln(πk )] (80)
Where the expectations Eµ,Λ , Eψ , Eπ are with respect to the variational posterior with hyperparameter
values computed at Θ, which recall is related to Θ through the following relationships:
α̂k = nπ̂k + α
m̂k = (nµ̂k π̂k + βmk )/(nπ̂k + β)
β̂k = nπ̂k + β
ν̂k = nπ̂k + ν
nπ̂k
Φ̂k = nπ̂k (Λ̂k )−1 + β(µ̂k − mk )(µ̂k − mk )T + Φ
nπ̂k + β
η̂k,g = nπ̂k ψ̂k,g + η (81)
We will make use of the following lemma:
Lemma 1 (Lemma 1 of Titterington and Wang [2006]). Suppose that pn (x) is the probability density
function of the Rm valued random vector Xn = (x1n , . . . , xm T
n ) , that E(Xn ) = µn → µ and Covij (Xn ) =
1
O( n ) as n → ∞. Then, for any function f (.) with continuous second order derivative near µ, it holds
that:
1
E(f (Xn )) = f (µn ) + O( )
n
Proof. See Titterington and Wang [2006] ■
∗
πk p(xi ,ci |zi =k,Θ∗ )
Lemma 2. As n → ∞, ρik (Θ∗ ) = πk∗ p(xi , ci |zi = k, Θ∗ )+O( n1 ). Consequently, rik (Θ∗ ) → PK
π̂ ∗ p(xi ,ci |zi =k′ ,Θ∗ )
k′ =1 k′
∗
π̂ π
µ̂ µ∗
Taking Θ = = ∗
= Θ∗
Λ̂ Λ
ψ̂ ψ∗
Proof. Recall that
q 1 1
Eµ,Λ [ln(N (xi |µk , Λ−1 T −1 −1
k ))] = − ln(2π) + EΛk [ln(det(Λk ))] − [(xi − m̂k ) ν̂k Φ̂k (xi − m̂k ) + qβk ]
2 2 2
(82)
31
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
1
− (xi − m̂k )T ν̂k Φ̂−1
k (xi − m̂k )
2
1 1 1 1
= − (xi − µ∗k − O( ))T (Λ∗k + O( ))(xi − µ∗k − O( ))
2 n n n
1 ∗ T ∗ ∗ 1
= − (xi − µk ) Λk (xi − µk ) + O( ) (83)
2 n
where we used m̂k = nµ∗k πk∗ /(nπk∗ + β) + βmk /(nπk∗ + β) → µ∗k + O( n1 ) and
nπk∗
ν̂k Φ̂−1 ∗ ∗ ∗ −1
k = (nπk + ν)(nπk (Λk ) + β(µ∗k − mk )(µ∗k − mk )T + Φ)−1
nπk∗ + β
Λ∗k Λ∗
= (nπk∗ + ν)(nπk∗ (Λ∗k )−1 (I + ∗ β(µ∗k − mk )(µ∗k − mk )T + k∗ Φ))−1
nπk + β nπk
∗ ∗ ∗
Λk Λ nπ + ν
= (I + β(µ∗k − mk )(µ∗k − mk )T + k∗ Φ)−1 k ∗ Λ∗k
nπk∗ + β nπk nπk
1
= Λ∗k + O( ) (84)
n
1
q β̂k−1 = O( )
n
For 12 EΛk [ln(det(Λk ))], EΛk (Λk ) = ν̂k Φ̂−1 ∗ −1 −1 −1 −1
k → Λk , Cov([Λk ]ij , [Λk ]ab ) = ν̂k [Φ̂k ]ia [Φ̂k ]jb + [Φ̂k ]ib [Φ̂k ]ja =
O n1 . So using Lemma 1 on q(Λk ), we have:
1 1 1
EΛ [ln(det(Λk ))] = ln(det(Λ∗k )) + O( ) (85)
2 k 2 n
Therefore
q 1 1
Eµ,Λ [ln(N (xi |µk , Λ−1
k ))] = − ln(2π) + EΛ [ln(det(Λk ))] − [(xi − m̂k )T ν̂k Φ̂−1 −1
k (xi − m̂k ) + qβk ]
2 2 k 2
q 1 1 1
= − ln(2π) + ln(det(Λ∗k )) − (xi − µ∗k )T Λ∗k (xi − µ∗k ) + O( ) (86)
2 2 2 n
∗
nπk +α
For q(π), we note that Eπ (πk ) = PKα̂k
α̂k′
= n+Kα → πk∗ and
k′ =1
So by Lemma 1, we have
1
Eπ [ln(πk )] = ln(πk∗ ) + O( ) (87)
n
∗ ∗
η̂k,ci nπk ψk,c +η ∗
Similarly, for q(ψk ), we have Eψ [ψk,ci ] = Pd = nπk
i
∗ +dη → ψk,c .
g=1 η̂k,g
i
So by Lemma 1, we have
∗ 1
Eψ [ln(ψk,ci )] = ln(ψk,c ) + O( ) (88)
i
n
Therefore:
32
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
−q 1 1 1
ρik (Θ∗ ) = πk∗ ψk,c
∗
(2π) det(Λ∗k ) 2 exp(− (xi − µ∗k )T Λ∗k (xi − µ∗k ) + O( ))
2
i
2 n
∗ ∗ ∗ −q
∗ 12 1 ∗ T ∗ ∗ 1
ρik (Θ ) = πk ψk,ci (2π) det(Λk ) exp(− (xi − µk ) Λk (xi − µk )) + O( )
2
2 n
∗ ∗ 1
= πk p(xi , ci |zi = k, Θ ) + O( ) (89)
n
∗
πk p(xi ,ci |zi =k,Θ∗ )
So as n → ∞, ρik (Θ∗ ) → πk∗ p(xi , ci |zi = k, Θ∗ ). Also, rik (Θ∗ ) → PK
πk∗ p(x ,c |z =k ′ ,Θ∗ ) . ■
k′ =1 ′ i i i
Here θk′ is any scalar parameter within Θ belonging to component k ′ , so we could have for example µ̂k′ l ,
the lth coordinate of µ̂k′ . Note if ρik is independent of θk′ for k ′ ̸= k, then
∂rik ∂ ln(ρik′ ) n o
= δkk′ rik − rik rik′ (91)
∂θk′ ∂θk′
∂ ln(ρik ) ∂ ln(ρik )
is independent of µ̂, Λ̂, we therefore have ∂ µ̂kl , and ∂ Λ̂kjl
are unchanged from the continuous data
case, which as n → ∞ are of the form (see Titterington and Wang [2006]):
q
∂ ln(ρik ) X
→ Λ̂klj (xij − µ̂kj ) (93)
∂ µ̂kl j=1
∂ ln(ρik ) 1 −1
→ [Λ̂ − (xij − µ̂kj )(xil − µ̂kl )] (94)
∂ Λ̂kjl 2 kjl
∂ ln(ρik )
for ∂ ψ̂k,g
, we use the following lemma:
Lemma 3. Let 𭟋 be the digamma function on the positive reals, and b1 > 0, b2 ≥ 0, b3 ≥ 0 be real
constants and n positive integer. Let λ = b1 nx + b2 n + b3 , then:
∂𭟋(λ) ∂λ
∼ (λ − 1)−1 = b1 n(b1 nx + b2 n + b3 − 1)−1 → (x + b2 /b1 )−1
∂x ∂x
as n → ∞.
33
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
Proof. See Titterington and Wang [2006], Appendix D, Pages 643-644, which proves the case for λ =
nx + b3 but the proof is the same except substituting λ instead for λ = b1 nx + b2 n + b3 and changing
the chain rule derivative ∂λ
∂x = b1 n accordingly. ■
∂ ln(ρik )
Using Lemma 3, for ∂ ψ̂k,g
, we have:
Pd
∂ ln(ρik ) ∂𭟋(η + nπ̂k ψ̂k,ci ) ∂𭟋(dη + nπ̂k g=1 ψ̂k,g )
= −
∂ ψ̂k,g ∂ ψ̂k,g ∂ ψ̂k,g
Pd d
∂(η + nπ̂k ψ̂k,ci ) −1
∂(dη + nπ̂k g=1 ψ̂k,g ) X
∼ (η + nπ̂k ψ̂k,ci − 1) − (dη + nπ̂k ψ̂k,g − 1)−1
∂ ψ̂k,g ∂ ψ̂k,g g=1
d
δgci X δgci 1
→ − (nπ̂k )(nπ̂k ψ̂k,g )−1 = − Pd (95)
ψ̂k,ci g=1 ψ̂k,g g=1 ψ̂k,g
K
X K
X
Eπ [ln(πk )] = 𭟋(α̂k ) − 𭟋( α̂k ) = 𭟋(α + nπ̂k ) − 𭟋(Kα + n π̂k ) (97)
k=1 k=1
As in Titterington and Wang [2006], rather than Equation (97) we instead use 𭟋(α+nπ̂k )−𭟋(Kα+n),
PK
which coincides with Equation (97) when k=1 π̂k = 1. This is always satisfied by the CAVI algorithm
PK
after the first update (and satisfied by the initial values too if the rik are initialised to satisfy k=1 rik =
1), so T (Θ) still matches our proposed algorithm for Θ that lies in the support of the prior. This will
simplify some of the following calculations by ensuring that ∂ ln(ρ ik )
∂ π̂k′ = 0 if k ′ ̸= k 4 . By Lemma 3, we
have:
∂ ln(ρik ) ∂𭟋(α + nπ̂k ) ∂𭟋(Kα + n)
→ −
∂ π̂k ∂ π̂k ∂ π̂k
∂(α + nπ̂k )
∼ (α + nπ̂k − 1)−1
∂ π̂k
1
→n(nπ̂k )−1 = (98)
π̂k
Now that we have computed the limits of the derivatives of ln(ρik ) as n → ∞, we can return to
our original objective of deriving the matrix of derivatives in Equation (79) as n → ∞ at Θ = Θ∗ .
PK
Let ϕ∗k = p(x, c|z = k, Θ∗ ) and ϕ∗ = k′ =1 πk∗′ p(x, c|zi = k ′ , Θ∗ ) denote the likelihood evaluated at an
4 In
Pd
contrast, we did not take g=1 ψ̂k,g =1 in Equation (92), as this results in Equation (95), and its expectation
δ 1 ϕ∗
E[( ψ∗gc − Pd ∗ ) k
ϕ∗
] = 0, which will simplify some of the subsequent calculations.
k,g g=1 ψk,g
34
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
arbitrary point x, c with the true parameter values Θ∗ for a specific mixture component and with the
mixture component integrated out, respectively. Also let:
ϕ∗k
Rkπ =
ϕ∗
ϕ∗k πk∗
Rkµ = Λ∗k (x − µ∗k )
ϕ∗
1 ∗−1 ϕ∗ π ∗
RkΛ = [Λk − (x − µ∗k )(x − µ∗k )T ] k ∗ k
2 ϕ
∗ ∗
δg c
′ ϕ π
Rkψ : Rkg
ψ
′ = ( ∗ − 1) k ∗ k
ψk,g ′ ϕ
πk∗ ϕ∗k
Lπk =
ϕ∗
ϕ∗k
Lµk = (x − µ∗k )
ϕ∗
∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ T ∗ ϕ∗k
LΛ
k = [Λk − Λk (x − µk )(x − µk ) Λk ]
ϕ∗
∗ ∗
(δg′ c − ψk,g ′ )ϕk
Lψ ψ
k : Lkg ′ = (99)
ϕ∗
θ
L1
θ θ T θ T θ ..
and R = [(R1 ) , . . . , (RK ) ] and L = . for θ ∈ {π, µ, Λ, ψ}.
LθK
One can then show the gradients inside Equation (79) take the following forms as n → ∞:
∇π̂ Π(Θ∗ ) → I − E[Lπ Rπ ]
∇µ̂ Π(Θ∗ ) → −E[Lπ Rµ ]
∇Λ̂ Π(Θ∗ ) → −E[Lπ RΛ ]
∇ψ̂ Π(Θ∗ ) → −E[Lπ Rψ ]
∇π̂ M (Θ∗ ) → −E[Lµ Rπ ]
∇µ̂ M (Θ∗ ) → I − E[Lµ Rµ ]
∇Λ̂ M (Θ∗ ) → −E[Lµ RΛ ]
∇ψ̂ M (Θ∗ ) → −E[Lµ Rψ ]
∇π̂ S(Θ∗ ) → −E[LΛ Rπ ]
∇µ̂ S(Θ∗ ) → −E[LΛ Rµ ]
∇Λ̂ S(Θ∗ ) → I − E[LΛ RΛ ]
∇ψ̂ S(Θ∗ ) → −E[LΛ Rψ ]
∇π̂ Ψ(Θ∗ ) → −E[Lψ Rπ ]
∇µ̂ Ψ(Θ∗ ) → −E[Lψ Rµ ]
∇Λ̂ Ψ(Θ∗ ) → −E[Lψ RΛ ]
∇ψ̂ Ψ(Θ∗ ) → I − C ψ − E[Lψ Rψ ] (100)
ψ ∗
where C ψ : RKd → RKd , Ckgk ′ g ′ = δkk ′ ψk,g . So if a ∈ R
Kd
, u ∈ RK :
K X
X d K X
X d d
X
ψ ∗ ∗
Ckgk ′ g ′ ak ′ g ′ = δkk′ ψk,g ak′ g′ = ψk,g akg′
k′ =1 g ′ =1 k′ =1 g ′ =1 g ′ =1
The expectation in Equation (100) is taken with respect to x, c, which has density of the likelihood
evaluated at the true data generating parameter Θ∗ . Calculating the gradient limits in Equation (100)
require very long and tedious calculations, so we reserve the details to Appendix D.2.
35
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
Returning to the main objective of showing the operator ∇T ϵ (Θ∗ ) converges as n → ∞ (with prob-
ability 1) to an operator Aϵ (Θ∗ ) with norm less than 1, where the norm is induced by ⟨., .⟩. To do
this, we show Aϵ (Θ∗ ) < I and Aϵ (Θ∗ ) > −I, where for example Aϵ (Θ∗ ) < I means I − Aϵ (Θ∗ ) is
positive definite. To see why this is sufficient to imply ∥Aϵ (Θ∗ )∥op < 1, note that Aϵ (Θ∗ ) < I im-
plies ⟨B, Aϵ (Θ∗ )B⟩ ≤ ⟨B, B⟩ for all B with equality iff B = 0, and similarly Aϵ (Θ∗ ) > −I implies
⟨B, Aϵ (Θ∗ )B⟩ ≥ −⟨B, B⟩ with equality iff B = 0. ϵ ∗
L Lthis implies |⟨B, A (Θ )B⟩| < |⟨B,ϵ B⟩|∗ = 1
L Combined
for all ∥B∥ = 1. Because the unit circle {B ∈ Sπ Sµ SΛ Sψ : ∥B∥ = 1} is compact, |⟨B, A (Θ )B⟩|
attains its supremum on the unit circle which is smaller than 1. Lastly note that Aϵ (Θ∗ ) is self adjoint
5
and recall from Hilbert space theory
L L that L
the operator norm for self-adjoint operators A is equal to
sup{|⟨B, AB⟩| : ∥B∥ = 1, B ∈ Sπ Sµ SΛ Sψ}.
u
v L L L
Let u ∈ Sπ , v ∈ Sµ , W ∈ SΛ , a ∈ Sψ , B = W ∈ Sπ
Sµ SΛ Sψ .
L L L a
Let R : Sπ Sµ SΛ Sψ → R such that:
K
X K
X K
X K
X
R(B) = Rkπ uk + (Rkµ )T vk + T r(RkΛ Wk ) + (Rkψ )T ak (101)
k=1 k=1 k=1 k=1
Lπ
Lµ
LΛ . Note we deliberately constructed the inner product ⟨., .⟩ so that:
Similarly let L =
Lψ
K K X π∗ K K
X 1 X X π∗
⟨B, L⟩ = uk ( ∗ )Lπk + (vk )T (πk∗ Λ∗k )Lµk + k
T r(Wk Λ∗−1
k LΛ ∗−1
k Λk )+ aTk diag( k∗ )Lψ
πk 2 ψk k
k=1 k=1 k=1 k=1
K
X K
X K
X K
X
= uk Rkπ + vkT Rkµ + T r(RkΛ Wk ) + aTk Rkψ
k=1 k=1 k=1 k=1
= R(B) (102)
For the case Aϵ (Θ∗ ) > −I. From Equation (100), we have that 1 ∗
= I − C ψ −LE[LR].
L AL(Θ )L L Here
L we
ψ
use a slight abuse of notation where we extend the map C : Sπ Sµ SΛ Sψ → Sπ Sµ SΛ Sψ
by simply mapping the extended dimensions to 0 so:
2
Aϵ (Θ∗ ) > −I ⇐⇒ (1 − ϵ)I + ϵA1 (Θ∗ ) > −I ⇐⇒ C ψ + E[LR] < I
ϵ
2
⇐⇒ ⟨B, C ψ B⟩ + E[⟨B, LR(B)⟩] ≤ ⟨B, B⟩ with equality iff B = 0 (103)
ϵ
where
K X
d d K d d K
X πk∗ X ∗ X
∗
X X X
ψ
⟨B, C B⟩ = akg ∗ ψk,g akg =
′ πk akg akg =
′ πk∗ (aTk 1)2 (104)
g=1
ψk,g ′ g=1 ′
k=1 g =1 k=1 g =1 k=1
K K X π∗K K
X 1 X
∗ ∗ ∗−1 ∗−1
X πk∗
⟨B, B⟩ = u2k ( ) + v T
k (π k Λ k )v k + k
T r(W k Λ W k Λ ) + a T
k diag( )ak
πk∗ 2 k k
ψk∗
k=1 k=1 k=1 k=1
36
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
E[R(B)2 ]
K
nX πk∗ ϕ∗k 1 ∗ ∗ T 1 ∗−1 ∗ ∗ T δc T o2
= E[ ∗
(u k ( ∗ ) + (Λ k (x − µk )) v k + T r( [Λ k − (x − µk )(x − µk ) ]W k ) + ∗
ak − aTk 1) ]
ϕ πk 2 ψk
k=1
K
X π ∗ ϕ∗ 1 1 δc T
≤ E[ k k
(uk ( ∗ ) + (Λ∗k (x − µ∗k ))T vk + T r( [Λ∗−1 − (x − µ∗
k )(x − µ∗ T
k ) ]W k ) + ak − aTk 1)2 ]
ϕ ∗ πk 2 k ψk∗
k=1
K
X π ∗ ϕ∗ 1 1
= E[ k k
(u2k ( ∗ )2 + vkT Λ∗k (x − µ∗k )(x − µ∗k )T Λ∗k vk + T r( [Λ∗−1 − (x − µ∗k )(x − µ∗k )T ]Wk )2
ϕ ∗ πk 2 k
k=1
T
δc 1 1 1
+( ak − aTk 1)2 + 2uk ( )(x − µ∗k )T Λ∗k vk + 2uk ( ∗ )T r( [Λ∗−1 − (x − µ∗k )(x − µ∗k )T ]Wk )
ψk∗ πk∗ πk 2 k
T
1 δc 1
+ 2uk ( ∗ )( ak − aTk 1) + 2(x − µ∗k )T Λ∗k vk T r( [Λ∗−1 − (x − µ∗k )(x − µ∗k )T ]Wk )
πk ψk ∗ 2 k
T
δc 1 δc T
+ 2(x − µ∗k )T Λ∗k vk ( ak − aTk 1) + 2T r( [Λ∗−1 − (x − µ∗
k )(x − µ∗ T
k ) ]W k )( ak − aTk 1)] (107)
ψk∗ 2 k ψk∗
δ
Here ψδc∗ is a vector of dimension d with components ψ∗cg . The second inequality above is due to
k,g
PK k PK PK
| k=1 ξk ηk |2 ≤ k=1 ξk2 ηk for ηk ≥ 0 and k=1 ηk = 1, and any real ξk . One can show this inequality
√ √
by applying Cauchy-Schwarz on ξk ηk and ηk . There are a lot of terms here but it will turn out the
‘diagonal’ terms will simplify nicely, and the non diagonal terms will have expected value of 0.
K K K
X π ∗ ϕ∗
k k 2 1 2
X 1 2 X 2 1
E[ u ( ) ] = πk∗ u2k ( ) = uk ( ∗ )
ϕ∗ k πk∗ πk∗ πk
k=1 k=1 k=1
K K
X π ∗ ϕ∗ X
E[ k k
(vkT Λ∗k (x − µ∗k )(x − µ∗k )T Λ∗k vk )] = vkT πk∗ Λ∗k vk
ϕ∗
k=1 k=1
K K
X π ∗ ϕ∗ 1 X πk
E[ k k
(T r( [Λ∗−1 − (x − µ∗k )(x − µ∗k )T ]Wk )2 )] = T r(Λ∗−1 Wk Λ∗−1 Wk )
ϕ∗ 2 k 2 k k
k=1 k=1
K T K T T
X πk∗ ϕ∗k δc X πk∗ ϕ∗k T δc δc T δc
E[ (( ∗ ak − aTk 1)2 )] = E[ (ak ak − 2a k 1 ak + (aTk 1)2 )]
ϕ∗ ψk ϕ∗ ψk∗ ψk∗ ψk∗
k=1 k=1
K d d d
X πk∗ ϕ∗k X X δcg′ δcg T
X δcg T 2
= E[ ( akg′ ∗ ∗ akg − 2ak 1 ∗ akg + (ak 1) )]
ϕ∗ ψk,g′ ψk,g ψ
g=1 k,g
k=1 g ′ =1 g=1
K K
X πk∗ X
= aTk diag( ∗ )ak − πk∗ (aTk 1)2 (108)
ψk
k=1 k=1
The third expectation above can be derived by writing the Trace in summation convention and using
Isserlis’s theorem on
PKthe resulting fourth moment. Note the four ‘diagonal’ terms above adds up to
precisely ⟨B, B⟩ − k=1 πk∗ (aTk 1)2 , and the ‘off-diagonal’ terms add up to 0:
K
X π ∗ ϕ∗ 1
E[ k k
∗
2uk ( ∗ )(x − µ∗k )T Λ∗k vk ] = 0
ϕ πk
k=1
K
X π ∗ ϕ∗ 1 1
E[ k k
2uk ( )T r( [Λ∗−1 − (x − µ∗k )(x − µ∗k )T ]Wk )] = 0
ϕ∗ πk∗ 2 k
k=1
K T
X π ∗ ϕ∗ 1 δc
E[ k k
2uk ( ∗ )( ∗ ak − aTk 1)] = 0 (109)
ϕ∗ πk ψk
k=1
37
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
K
X π ∗ ϕ∗ 1
E[ k k
2(x − µ∗k )T Λ∗k vk T r( [Λ∗−1 − (x − µ∗k )(x − µ∗k )T ]Wk )] = 0 (110)
ϕ∗ 2 k
k=1
By Isserlis’s Theorem.
K T
X π ∗ ϕ∗ δc 1
E[ k k
2(x − µ∗k )T Λ∗k vk ( ak − aTk 1)] = 0
ϕ∗ ψk∗ 2
k=1
K T
X π ∗ ϕ∗ 1 δc 1
E[ k k
2T r( [Λ∗−1 − (x − µ∗k )(x − µ∗k )T ]Wk )( ak − aTk 1)] = 0 (111)
ϕ∗ 2 k ψk∗ 2
k=1
By independence between x and c. Putting together Equation (108) and Equation (109) we have:
K
X
E[⟨B, LR(B)⟩] ≤ ⟨B, B⟩ − πk∗ (aTk 1)2 (112)
k=1
With an upper bound on E[⟨B, LR(B)⟩] we can now return to Equation (103):
which is obviously true as E[LR] is positive definite and C ψ positive semidefinite under ⟨, ⟩
We have established ∇T ϵ (Θ∗ ) converges with probability 1 as n → ∞ to an operator with operator
norm less than 1, therefore there exist 0 ≤ λ < 1 such that:
α̂t nπ̂kt + α
Eπ [πk ] = PK k = PK → πk∗
t n k=1 π̂kt + Kα
k=1 α̂k
Eµ,Λ [µk ] = m̂tk = (nµ̂tk π̂kt + βmk )/(nπ̂kt + β) → µ∗k
1 Φ −1
Eµ,Λ [Λk ] = ν̂kt (Φ̂tk )−1 = (nπ̂kt + ν)(nπ̂kt )−1 ((Λ̂tk )−1 + β(µ̂tk − mk )(µ̂tk − mk )T + )
nπ̂kt+β nπ̂k
→ Λ∗k
t
η̂k,g nπ̂kt ψ̂k,g
t
+η ∗
Eψ [ψk,g ] = Pd = d
→ ψk,g (116)
t t t
P
η̂
g=1 k,g nπ̂ k ψ̂
g=1 k,g + dη
38
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
Starting with the case θk′ = ψ̂k′ ,g′ . We consider the two terms in the last line as n → ∞ at Θ = Θ∗ .
Dividing each term in the top and bottom by n:
n n
1 X ∂rik (Θ∗ ) 1 X ∂ ln(ρik′ (Θ∗ )) n o
= δkk′ rik (Θ∗ ) − rik (Θ∗ )rik′ (Θ∗ )
n i=1 ∂ ψ̂k′ ,g′ n i=1 dψ̂k′ ,g′
δg ′ c π ∗ ϕ∗ π ∗ ϕ∗ π ∗′ ϕ∗ ′
→ E[( ∗ − 1)(δkk′ k ∗ k − k k ∗2k k )]
ψk′ ,g′ ϕ ϕ
∗
ψk,g ′ δg ′ c π ∗ ϕ∗ π ∗′ ϕ∗ ′ δg ′ c π ∗ ϕ∗ π ∗′ ϕ∗ ′
=( ∗ − 1)δkk′ πk∗ − E[( ∗ − 1) k k ∗2k k ] = −E[( ∗ − 1) k k ∗2k k ] (118)
ψk′ ,g′ ψk′ ,g′ ϕ ψk′ ,g′ ϕ
where in the second line, we used the limit of rik (Θ∗ ) previously derived in Lemma 2, and the strong
law of large numbers, with the expectation here is taken with respect to x, c, which has density of the
δ π∗ δ ′ ϕ∗
likelihood evaluated at the true data generating parameter Θ∗ . In the last line we used ψkk∗ ′ k E[ gϕc∗ k ] =
k′ ,g ′
∗
δkk′ πk ∗
ψk∗ ψk,g ′ = δkk′ πk∗ . Similarly:
′ ,g ′
n n
1X ∂rik (Θ∗ ) 1X ∂ ln(ρik′ (Θ∗ )) n o
I{ci =g} = I{ci =g} δkk′ rik (Θ∗ ) − rik (Θ∗ )rik′ (Θ∗ )
n i=1 ∂ψk′ ,g′ n i=1 ∂ψk′ ,g′
δg ′ c π ∗ ϕ∗ π ∗ ϕ∗ π ∗′ ϕ∗ ′
→ E[δgc ( ∗ − 1)(δkk′ k ∗ k − k k ∗2k k )]
ψk′ ,g′ ϕ ϕ
δg ′ c π ∗ ϕ∗ π ∗′ ϕ∗ ′
→ δgg′ δkk′ πk∗ − δkk′ ψk,g
∗
πk∗ − E[δgc ( ∗ − 1) k k ∗2k k ] (119)
ψk′ ,g′ ϕ
where in the last line we used δgc δg′ c = δgg′ δg′ c . Additionally:
n
1X π ∗ ϕ∗
Πk (Θ∗ ) = rik (Θ∗ ) → E[ k ∗ k ] = πk∗
n i=1 ϕ
n
1X π ∗ ϕ∗
I{ci =g} rik (Θ∗ ) → E[δgc k ∗ k ] = πk∗ ψk,g
∗
(120)
n i=1 ϕ
39
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
n
∂Πk (Θ∗ ) ∂ 1X
= ( rik (Θ∗ ))
∂ ψ̂k′ ,g′ ∂ ψ̂k′ ,g′ n i=1
δg ′ c π ∗ ϕ∗ π ∗′ ϕ∗ ′
→ −E[( ∗ − 1) k k ∗2k k ] (125)
ψk′ ,g′ ϕ
n
∂Πk (Θ∗ ) ∂ 1X
= ( rik (Θ∗ ))
∂ π̂k′ ∂ π̂k′ n i=1
1 π ∗ ϕ∗ π ∗ ϕ∗ π ∗′ ϕ∗ ′
→ E[ ∗ (δkk′ k ∗ k − k k ∗2k k )]
πk ′ ϕ ϕ
∗ ∗ ∗
π ϕk ϕk ′
= δkk′ − E[ k ∗2 ] (126)
ϕ
n
∂Πk (Θ∗ ) ∂ 1X
= ( rik (Θ∗ ))
∂ µ̂k′ l ∂ µ̂k′ l n i=1
πk∗ ϕ∗k π ∗ ϕ∗ π ∗′ ϕ∗ ′
→ E[Λ∗k′ lj (xj − µ∗k′ j )(δkk′ ∗
− k k ∗2k k )]
ϕ ϕ
∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
π ϕ π ′ ϕ ′
= −E[Λ∗k′ lj (xj − µ∗k′ j ) k k ∗2k k )] (127)
ϕ
40
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
n
∂Πk (Θ∗ ) ∂ 1X
= ( rik (Θ∗ ))
∂ Λ̂k′ jl ∂ Λ̂k′ jl n i=1
1 πk∗ ϕ∗k π ∗ ϕ∗ π ∗′ ϕ∗ ′
→ E[ (Λ∗−1 ∗ ∗
k′ jl − (xj − µk′ j )(xl − µk′ l ))(δkk
′
∗
− k k ∗2k k )]
2 ϕ ϕ
∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
1 ∗−1 π ϕ π ′ ϕ ′
= −E[ (Λk′ jl − (xj − µ∗k′ j )(xl − µ∗k′ l )) k k ∗2k k )] (128)
2 ϕ
Next, for the gradients of M :
Pn
∂Mk (Θ) ∂ rik xi
= ( Pi=1
n )
∂θk′ ∂θk′ i=1 rik
Pn ∂rik Pn Pn ∂rik Pn
( i=1 ∂θ xi )( i=1 rik ) − ( i=1 ∂θk′ )( i=1 rik xi )
k′
= Pn (129)
( i=1 rik )2
Note
∗ ∗
Pn πk ϕk x
ϕ∗ ]
∗
∗rik (Θ )x i E[
Mk (Θ ) = Pi=1
n ∗)
→ πk∗ ϕ∗ = µ∗k (130)
r
i=1 ik (Θ E[ ϕ∗ ] k
∂Mk (Θ∗ ) 1 n δg ′ c πk∗ ϕ∗k πk∗ ϕ∗k πk∗′ ϕ∗k′ ∗ δg ′ c πk∗ ϕ∗k πk∗ ϕ∗k πk∗′ ϕ∗k′ ∗ ∗ o
→ E[( − 1)(δ kk ′ − )x]π k − E[( − 1)(δ kk ′ − )]πk µk
∂ ψ̂k′ ,g′ πk∗2 ψk∗′ ,g′ ϕ∗ ϕ∗2 ψk∗′ ,g′ ϕ∗ ϕ∗2
δg ′ c ϕ∗ (x − µ∗k )ϕ∗k δg′ c πk∗′ ϕ∗k′
= δkk′ E[( ∗ − 1) k∗ (x − µ∗k )] − E[ ( ∗ − 1) ]
ψk′ ,g′ ϕ ϕ∗ ψk′ ,g′ ϕ∗
(x − µ∗k )ϕ∗k δg′ c πk∗′ ϕ∗k′
= −E[ ( − 1) ] (131)
ϕ∗ ψk∗′ ,g′ ϕ∗
∂Mk (Θ∗ ) 1 n 1 π ∗ ϕ∗ π ∗ ϕ∗ π ∗′ ϕ∗ ′ 1 π ∗ ϕ∗ π ∗ ϕ∗ π ∗′ ϕ∗ ′ o
→ ∗2 E[ ∗ (δkk′ k ∗ k − k k ∗2k k )x]πk∗ − E[ ∗ (δkk′ k ∗ k − k k ∗2k k )]πk∗ µ∗k
∂ π̂k′ πk πk ′ ϕ ϕ πk ′ ϕ ϕ
1 ϕ∗k (x − µ ∗
)ϕ ∗
1 π ∗ ∗
′ ϕ ′
= δkk′ E[ ∗ ∗ (x − µ∗k )] − E[ k k
( ∗ ) k ∗k ]
πk ′ ϕ ϕ∗ πk ′ ϕ
(x − µ∗k )ϕ∗k ϕ∗k′
= −E[ ] (132)
ϕ∗ ϕ∗
For θk′ = µ̂k′ l , we have:
∂Mk (Θ∗ )r 1 n π ∗ ϕ∗ π ∗ ϕ∗ π ∗′ ϕ∗ ′
→ ∗2 E[Λ∗k′ lj (xj − µ∗k′ j )(δkk′ k ∗ k − k k ∗2k k )xr ]πk∗
∂ µ̂k′ l πk ϕ ϕ
∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
π ϕ π ϕ π ′ϕ ′ o
− E[Λ∗k′ lj (xj − µ∗k′ j )(δkk′ k ∗ k − k k ∗2k k )]πk∗ µ∗kr
ϕ ϕ
∗
ϕ (xr − µ∗kr )ϕ∗k ∗ πk∗′ ϕ∗k′
= δkk′ E[Λ∗k′ lj (xj − µ∗k′ j ) k∗ (xr − µ∗kr )] − E[ (Λ ′
k lj (x j − µ∗
′
k j )) ]
ϕ ϕ∗ ϕ∗
(xr − µ∗kr )ϕ∗k ∗ ∗ πk∗′ ϕ∗k′
= δkk′ δlr − E[ (Λ k ′ lj (xj − µk ′ j )) ] (133)
ϕ∗ ϕ∗
41
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
n n
∂Sk (Θ) ∂ nX X o
= ( rik )( rik (xi − Mk )(xi − Mk )T )−1
∂θk′ ∂θk′ i=1 i=1
n n
X ∂rik X
=( )( rik (xi − Mk )(xi − Mk )T )−1
i=1
∂θk ′
i=1
n n n n
X X X ∂ n o X
−( rik )( rik (xi − Mk )(xi − Mk )T )−1 ( rik (xi − Mk )(xi − Mk )T )( rik (xi − Mk )(xi − Mk )T )−1
i=1 i=1 i=1
∂θk ′
i=1
(135)
where we used Mk = Mk (Θ) as a shorthand. Before continuing we need to evaluate some intermediate
limits:
n
1X
rik (Θ∗ )(xi − Mk (Θ∗ ))(xi − Mk (Θ∗ ))T
n i=1
n
1X
= rik (Θ∗ )(xi − µ∗k + µ∗k − Mk (Θ∗ ))(xi − µ∗k + µ∗k − Mk (Θ∗ ))T
n i=1
n n
1X 1X
= rik (Θ∗ )(xi − µ∗k )(xi − µ∗k )T + rik (Θ∗ )(xi − µ∗k )(µ∗k − Mk (Θ∗ ))T
n i=1 n i=1
n n
1X 1X
+ (µ∗k − Mk (Θ∗ )) rik (Θ∗ )(xi − µ∗k )T + (µ∗k − Mk (Θ∗ ))( rik (Θ∗ ))(µ∗k − Mk (Θ∗ ))T
n i=1 n i=1
πk∗ ϕ∗k
→ E[ (x − µ∗k )(x − µ∗k )T ] = πk∗ (Λ∗k )−1 (136)
ϕ∗
Pn
Consequently, Sk (Θ∗ ) → Λ∗k . Using a similar argument, 1
n
∗
i=1 rik (Θ )(xi − Mk (Θ∗ )) → 0
42
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
n
1X ∂ n o
rik (xi − Mk )(xi − Mk )T )
n i=1 ∂θk′
n n n
1 X ∂rik −∂Mk 1 X 1X −∂Mk T
= (xi − Mk )(xi − Mk )T + ( ) rik (xi − Mk )T + rik (xi − Mk )( )
n i=1 ∂θk′ ∂θk′ n i=1 n i=1 ∂θk′
n n
1 X ∂rik 1 X ∂rik
= (xi − µ∗k )(xi − µ∗k )T + (µ∗k − Mk ) (xi − µ∗k )T
n i=1 ∂θk′ n i=1 ∂θk′
n n
1 X ∂rik 1 X ∂rik ∗
+ (xi − µ∗k )(µ∗k − Mk )T + (µ∗k − Mk ) (µ − Mk )T
n i=1 ∂θk′ n i=1 ∂θk′ k
n n
−∂Mk 1 X 1X −∂Mk T
+( ) rik (xi − Mk )T + rik (xi − Mk )( )
∂θk′ n i=1 n i=1 ∂θk′
n
1 X ∂rik
∼ (xi − µ∗k )(xi − µ∗k )T at Θ = Θ∗ , n → ∞ (137)
n i=1 ∂θk′
Putting everything together, for the case θk′ = ψ̂k′ ,g′ , we therefore have:
∂Sk (Θ∗ ) δg ′ c π ∗ ϕ∗ π ∗ ϕ∗ π ∗′ ϕ∗ ′
→ E[( ∗ − 1)(δkk′ k ∗ k − k k ∗2k k )](πk∗−1 Λ∗k )
∂ ψ̂k′ ,g′ ψk′ ,g′ ϕ ϕ
δg ′ c πk∗ ϕ∗k πk∗ ϕ∗k πk∗′ ϕ∗k′
− πk∗ (πk∗−1 Λ∗k )E[( − 1)(δ kk ′ − )(x − µ∗k )(x − µ∗k )T ](πk∗−1 Λ∗k )
ψk∗′ ,g′ ϕ∗ ϕ∗2
δg ′ c ϕ∗k ∗
= δkk′ E[( − 1) (Λ − Λ∗k (x − µ∗k )(x − µ∗k )T Λ∗k )]
ψk∗′ ,g′ ϕ∗ k
ϕ∗k ∗ δg ′ c π ∗′ ϕ∗ ′
− E[ ∗
(Λk − Λ∗k (x − µ∗k )(x − µ∗k )T Λ∗k )( ∗ − 1)( k ∗ k )]
ϕ ψk′ ,g′ ϕ
ϕ∗k ∗ δg ′ c π ∗′ ϕ∗ ′
= −E[ ∗
(Λk − Λ∗k (x − µ∗k )(x − µ∗k )T Λ∗k )( ∗ − 1)( k ∗ k )] (138)
ϕ ψk′ ,g′ ϕ
∂Sk (Θ∗ ) 1 π ∗ ϕ∗ π ∗ ϕ∗ π ∗′ ϕ∗ ′
→ E[ ∗ (δkk′ k ∗ k − k k ∗2k k )](πk∗−1 Λ∗k )
∂ π̂k′ πk ′ ϕ ϕ
∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
1 π ϕ π ϕ π ′ϕ ′
− πk∗ (πk∗−1 Λ∗k )E[( ∗ )(δkk′ k ∗ k − k k ∗2k k )(x − µ∗k )(x − µ∗k )T ](πk∗−1 Λ∗k )
πk ′ ϕ ϕ
∗ ∗
ϕ ϕ ′
= −E[(Λ∗k − Λ∗k (x − µ∗k )(x − µ∗k )T Λ∗k ) k ∗2k ] (139)
ϕ
For θk′ = µ̂k′ l , we have:
∂Sk (Θ∗ ) π ∗ ϕ∗ π ∗ ϕ∗ π ∗′ ϕ∗ ′
→ E[Λ∗k′ lj (xj − µ∗k′ j )(δkk′ k ∗ k − k k ∗2k k )](πk∗−1 Λ∗k )
∂ µ̂k′ l ϕ ϕ
∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
π ϕ π ϕ π ′ϕ ′
− πk∗ (πk∗−1 Λ∗k )E[Λ∗k′ lj (xj − µ∗k′ j )(δkk′ k ∗ k − k k ∗2k k )(x − µ∗k )(x − µ∗k )T ](πk∗−1 Λ∗k )
ϕ ϕ
ϕ∗ π ∗′ ϕ∗ ′
= −E[(Λ∗k − Λ∗k (x − µ∗k )(x − µ∗k )T Λ∗k )Λ∗k′ lj (xj − µ∗k′ j ) k k∗2 k ] (140)
ϕ
43
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
44
Bayesian Variational Inference for Mixed Data Mixture Models
2: have components that are less well separated in continuous space than scenario 1, in the sense that
the standard deviations of the covariance matrices is relatively larger in size compared to the separation
between the component centres, but compensated by a categorical variable that is significantly correlated
with the component label z, though not as much as in scenario 2.
45