Modeling and simulation (M&S)
Getting information about how something
will behave without actually testing it in real
life
• System approach has been used by engineers
since the 1950’s for the study of complex and
dynamic processes but their use by scientists
working in biological fields is relatively recent.
• A system is defined as any well delineated part of
reality which may contain a number of
interrelated elements forming the system
structure.
• These functioning components interact in various
ways and the interaction between components
can be physical, economic or social.
• A system is defined by user on the basis of
objectives and the intrinsic structure of the
system as measures and observed.
• For an agronomist a system may be
represented by a crop with leaf, stem and root
(plant organs) and growth and transpiration
(processes) as elements which interact
strongly.
• A system is dynamic when its state changes
over time. This change could be ‘continuous’
when its behaviour and state changes
relatively slowly or ‘discrete’ when changes
are fast, sudden or large.
• A model is simplified representation of a
system and simulation is the study of the
system and its behavior using models.
Models
• Planners, economists and researchers have
always been interested in finding out ways
and means to estimate crop yields in advance
to the extent possible.
• With this objective several regression models
have been developed by workers to predict
the relationship with agricultural productivity
and its components.
• These models when dealing with multi-year time
series usually include a technology trend factor,
thus lumping everything other than climatic
factors in one regression.
• However, such analysis where effects of some
specific factors is determined without considering
of interactions and feedbacks from other
controlling elements can often be misleading.
• In addition to climatic factors, there is a large
number of edaphic, hydrologic, biotic, agronomic
and socio-economic factors that influence crop
productivity.
• Crop growth is a very complex phenomenon
and a product of series of complicated
interactions of soil, plant and weather.
• Dynamic crop growth simulation is a relatively
recent technique that facilitates quantitative
understanding of the effects of these factors,
and agronomic management factors on crop
growth and productivity.
Models that deal with crop growth simulation
can be distinguished into two categories:
Descriptive and Explanatory
Descriptive models
• These models define the behavior of a system
in a simple manner.
• In these, models fit the data for one year well
but it fails totally for other year which
highlights the limitations of descriptive
models.
• The scope of incorporating the effect of
management is limited in such models.
Explanatory models
• These models consist of quantitative
descriptions of the mechanisms and processes
involved that are responsible for the
behaviour of the system.
• For an explanatory model the system is
analyzed and its processes and mechanisms
are quantified separately.
• The model is then built by integrating these
descriptions for the entire system.
Application of Crop Simulations Modelling
Environmental characterization
• Crop models together with GIS can greatly
facilitate demarcation of homologous zones at
mega-, meso- as well as micro level depending
upon the availability of data and objectives.
• These tools have been used to determine
potential and attainable yield for a given level
of inputs for various crops.
Optimizing crop management
• Once potential yields have been quantified, these
can be converted to attainable yields to
determine magnitude of yield gap.
• Crop growth modeling can be used to in matching
agro-technology with the farmers resources and
in analyzing the precise reasons for yield gap.
• Many studies have shown that simulation models
recommendations helped in increasing the
fertilizer use efficiency by 15-20%.
Impact of climate change
• Crop models are being used to estimate the
impact of increased carbon dioxide and
temperature on crop production.
• It was assumed that trends in potential yield
would also be shown in actual yield.
• These models can utilize the input from Global
Circulation Models (GCM) to quantify the
impact of climate change.
Yield Forecasting
• Reasonably precise estimates of acreage and
yield before the actual harvest are of immense
value in policy planning.
• The relatively small cost and speed of assessment
makes crop growth simulations models promising
for area where significant daily weather data are
readily available.
• In this approach, the model is run using actual
weather data during the cropping season for the
geographical region of interest. Weather data for
typical years are used to continue simulations
until harvest.
Summary
Models are means to -
capture,
condense and
organize knowledge
A well tested model can be a very effective
scientific tool for tailor-made introduction of
new production technologies, working out
• alternative crop production strategies,
• provide answers to the ‘WHAT IF’ questions
raised by technology adopters,
• to identify problems and prioritize research,
• to optimize precious resources by reducing
the number of field experiments,
• to assist in policy and strategy applications, for
environmental characterization and agro
ecological zoning, for seeking new domains
and as a very effective teaching aid.
• It is now possible to explain with simulation
models the effect of environmental variability
on crop growth and yield.
• The response of standard cultivars to
environment can be predicted with
confidence.
• In future, the system approach, with its
well-developed analytical frame work, data
base, and powerful simulation models, will
be handy to provide answers to many to
the current agricultural issues in a relatively
shorter time frame.
To do this more effectively, greater efforts
should be made to develop models that can
integrate the effect of all important factors
operation in the field environment, for
instance, weather, edaphic conditions,
management, incidence and effect of pests,
and socio-economics