MODULE 3

SOME DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

LEARNING OUTCOMES

❖ TLO 4: Distinguish the different types of discrete probability distribution through solving related problems.
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INTRODUCTION
The behaviour of a random variable can be described by means of a graph or a histogram, in
tabular form , or by means of a formula.
 I. Random Variables
A random variable, usually written X, is a variable whose possible values are numerical
outcomes of a random phenomenon. There are two types of random
variables, discrete and continuous.
Clearly a random variable is not a variable at all in the usual sense, and it is a
function. A. DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES

A discrete random variable is one which may take on only a countable number of distinct
values such as 0,1,2,3,4,........ Discrete random variables are usually (but not necessarily)
counts. If a random variable can take only a finite number of distinct values, then it must
be discrete.

Examples of discrete random variables include:

- number of children in a family,
- Friday night attendance at a cinema,
- number of patients in a hospital ward,
- number of defective light bulbs in a box of ten.

DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

The probability distribution of a discrete random variable is a list of probabilities associated with
each of its possible values. It is also sometimes called the probability function or the
probability mass function.
Illustration: Consider tossing a fair coin
three times
Define X : the number of heads obtained
X = 0 : TTT
X = 1 : HTT, THT, TTH
X = 2 : HHT, HTH, THH
X = 3 : HHH

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of

A discrete random variable X takes a fixed set

possible values with gaps between. The probability distribution of a discrete random variable X
lists the values xi and their probabilities pi:

Suppose a random variable X may take k different values, with the probability that X = xi defined
to be P(X = xi) = pi. The probabilities pi must satisfy the following:
 Example 1. A shipment of 8 similar microcomputers to a retail outlet contains 3 that are
defective. If a school makes a random purchase of 2 of these computers, find the probability
distribution for the number of defectives.
Let x = number of defective microcomputer x= 0,1,2
N=8
n=2
K =3
Required: Probability Distribution for the number of defectives.

Solution

P(x=0) = ( 3C0 5C 2) / 8C2 = .3572

P(x=1) = ( 3C1 5C 1) / 8C2 = .5357

P( x=2) = ( 3C2 5C0) / 8C2 = .1071

Probability Distribution table:

x 0 1 2

P(x) .3572 .5357 .1071

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Practice Exercises
 1. In the experiment of tossing a fair coin three times. If X is the random variable giving the
number of heads obtained, find
(a) �� (�� = 2)
(b) �� (�� < 2)

2. Suppose a variable X can take the values 1, 2, 3, or 4. The probabilities associated with each
outcome are described by the following table:

(a) Determine the probability that X is equal to 2 or 3

(b) Draw the Probability histogram

DESCRIBING THE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

- Describe the shape, center (mean), and spread (standard deviation), and identify
outliers

A. CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLES

A continuous random variable is one which takes an infinite number of possible values.
Continuous random variables are usually measurements.

Examples: height, weight, the amount of sugar in an orange, the time required to run a mile.

A continuous random variable is not defined at specific values. Instead, it is defined over an
interval of values, and is represented by the area under a curve (in advanced mathematics, this
is known as an integral). The probability of observing any single value is equal to 0, since the
number of values which may be assumed by the random variable is infinite.

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Suppose a random variable X may take all values over an interval of real numbers. Then the
probability that X is in the set of outcomes A, P(A), is defined to be the area above A and under a
curve. The curve, which represents a function p(x), must satisfy the following:

A curve meeting these requirements is known as a density curve.

The function ��(��) is a probability density function for the continuous random variable
A’’, defined over the set of real number R, if

1. ��(��) ≥ ��, ������ ������ �� = ��

∞
2. ∫ ��(��)���� = ��
−∞

��

3. ��(�� < ��
< ��) = ∫
��(��)
������

SOME
DISCRETE

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
 A. Discrete Uniform Distribution

- Simplest of all discrete probability distributions

- It is one where the random variable assumes each of its values with an equal probability

DISCRETE UNIFORM
DISTRIBUTION
If the random variable X assumes the values x1, x2, …,
xK, with equal probabilities, then the discrete uniform
distribution is given by

1
��(��; ��) = ��, �� = ��1 , ��2, … , ����

- The notation f(x;k) is used instead of f(x) to indicate that the uniform distribution depends
on the parameter k.

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Example 1. When a light bulb is selected at random from a box that contains a 40-watt bulb,
a 60-watt bulb, a 75-watt bulb, and a 100-watt bulb, each element of the sample space S =
{40, 60, 75, 100} occurs with probability ¼. Therefore, we have a uniform distribution, with
1
��(��; 4) = 4, �� = 40,60,75,100
 Example 2. An employee is selected from a staff of 10 to supervise a certain project by
selecting a tag at random from a box containing 10 tags numbered from 1 to 10. Find the
formula for the probability distribution of X representing the number on the tag that is drawn.
What is the probability that the number drawn is less than 4?
Let x = number on the tag
a. f (x; 10) = 1/10
b. P(x<4) = P(1) +P(2) + P(3) = 1/10 + 1/10 + 1/10 = 3/10 answer

II. Binomial Distribution

Most often, an experiment consists of repeated trials, each with two possible outcomes that
may be defined as a SUCCESS or a FAILURE (BERNOULLI PROCESS). Each trial is
called a Bernoulli trial. The number, x, of successes in n Bernoulli trials is called a
Binomial Random Variable that has a probability distribution called the BINOMIAL
DISTRIBUTION.

One of the most useful discrete distributions which is used in dichotomous populations,
like for instance ‘dead’ or ‘alive’, ‘pass’ or ‘fail’, ‘with’ or ‘without bacteria’, ‘approved’
or ‘disapproved’, ‘hit’ or ‘miss’

The Bernoulli process must possess the following properties:

1. The experiment consists of n repeated trials.

2. Each trial results in an outcome that may be classified as a success or a failure.
3. The probability of success, denoted by p, remains constant from trial to trial. 4.
The repeated trials are independent.

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

A Bernoulli trial can result in a success with probability p and a failure

with probability q = 1-p. Then the probability distribution of the
binomial random variable X, the number of successes in n

independent trials is

�� �� ��−��
��(��) = ��(��; ��, ��) = �� �� �� , �� = 0,1,2, … , ��

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Example3. The probability that a certain kind of component will survive a given shock
test is 3/4. Find the probability that exactly 2 of the next 4 components tested survive.
 Let x = number of a certain kind of component that will survive
Given: n= 4 x=2 p=3/4 or .75
Required: P(x=2) =?
Solution:
4
P(x=2) = ��(2; 4, .75) = 2 ��2��4−2, �� = 0,1,2,3,4
P (x=2) = .2109 or 21.09 %
21.09% of the next components tested will survive
Example 4. A large chain retailer purchases a certain kind of electronic device from a
manufacturer. The manufacturer indicates that the defective rate of the device is 3%.
(a) The inspector of the retailer randomly picks 20 items from a shipment. What is the
probability that there will be at least one defective item among these 20?
(b) Suppose that the retailer receives 10 shipments in a month and the inspector randomly
tests 20 devices per shipment. What is the probability that there will be 3 shipments
containing at least one defective device?
(a) Let x = number of devices that are defective
Given: n=20 p=.03
Required: P(x >1) = ?
20 0 20−0
Solution: P(x > 1) = 1- P(x=0) = 1 - 0 . 03 . 97 , �� = 0,1,2, … 20
P(x > 1) = .4562 or 45.62%
(b) Let y = number of shipments containing at least one defective device
Given: n = 10 x = 3 p = .4562
Required: P (y= 3) = ?
Solution:
10 3 7
P (y= 3) = 3 . 4562 . 5438 , �� = 0,1,2,3 … 10
P (y= 3) = .16022 or 16.022 %

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Written Assignment: Solve the following problems and submit your work under class work
Written assignment M2. Binomial
 1. An electronics firm claims that the proportion of defective units of a certain process is
5%. A buyer has a standard procedure of inspecting 15 units selected randomly from a
large lot. On a particular occasion, the buyer found 5 items defective. (a) What is the
probability of this occurrence, given that the claim of 5% defective is correct? (b) What
would be your reaction if you were the buyer?

2. Twelve people are given two identical speakers to listen to for differences, if any.
Suppose that these people answered by guessing only. Find the probability that three
people claim to have heard a difference between the two speakers.

3. In a certain city district the need for money to buy drugs is stated as the: reason for 75%
of all thefts. Find the probability that among the next 5 theft cases reported in this district,
(a) exactly 2 resulted from the need for money to buy drugs; (b) at most 3 resulted from
the need for money to buy drugs.

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II.
 Hypergeometric Distribution
▪ In binomial distribution, sampling is done WITH replacement such that it guarantees that
the draws are independent. Thus, if we sample WITHOUT replacement, the random
variable X, the number of successes in n draws, is no longer binomial but follows the
Hypergeometric distribution.

Properties of Hypergeometric Experiments:

(1) A random sample of size n is selected without replacement from N items.
(2) K of the N items may be classified as successes and N-k are classified as failures.

The number X of successes of a hypergeometric experiment is called a hypergeometric random

variable. Accordingly, the probability distribution of the hypergeometric variable is called the
hypergeometric distribution, and its values will be denoted by h(x; N, n, k), since they depend on
the number of successes k in the set N from which we select n items.
Example 3. Lots of 40 components each are called acceptable if they contain no more
than 3 defectives. The procedure for sampling the lot is to select 5 components at random
and to reject the lot if a defective is found. What is the probability that exactly 1 defective
is found in the sample if there are 3 defectives in the entire lot?
Given: Let x = number of defective found in a sample of 5 components.
N = 40
K=3
n=5
Required: P( x=1)
3 37
1 4
Solution: P(x=1) = _______________ = 0.3011 or 30.11%

40
5

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MULTIVARIATE HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION
• If N items can be partitioned into the A: cells A1, A2,..., Ak with a1, a2,..., ak elements,
respectively, then the probability distribution of the random variables X1,X2,...,Xk,
 representing the number of elements selected from A1, A2,..., Ak in a random sample of
size n, is

Example 4. A group of 10 individuals is used for a biological case study. The group contains 3
people with blood type O, 4 with blood type A, and 3 with blood type B. What is the probability
that a random sample of 5 will contain 1 person with blood type O, 2 people with blood type A,
and 2 people with blood type B?

Given: A1 = Blood type O a1= 3 X1 = 1

A2 = Blood type A a2= 4 X2 = 2

A3 = Blood type B a3= 3 X3 = 2

N= 10 n= 5

3 4 3
1 2 2
10
Solution: P ( 1,2,2; 3, 4, 3; 10,5) = ---------------------------------- = .2143 or 21.43% 5

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Written Assignment: Solve the following problems and submit your work under class
 work Written assignment M2. Hypergeometric

1. If 7 cards are dealt from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards, what is the
probability that (a) exactly 2 of them will be face cards? (b) at least 1 of them will
be a queen?

2 . To avoid detection at customs, a traveler places 6 narcotic tablets in a bottle

containing 9 vitamin pills that are similar in appearance. If the customs official
selects 3 of the tablets at random for analysis, what is the probability that the
traveler will be arrested for illegal possession of narcotics?

3. Find the probability of being dealt a bridge hand of 13 cards containing 5

spades, 2 hearts, 3 diamonds, and 3 clubs.

III. Poisson Distribution

Poisson experiments arise from experiments conducted to obtain numerical values of a random
variable X, the number of outcomes during a given time interval or in a specified region
denoted by t. The given time interval may be of any length, such as a minute, a day, a week, a
month, or even a year.

A Poisson experiment is derived from the Poisson process and possesses the following
properties:

1. The number of outcomes occurring in one time interval or specified region is independent of
the number that occurs in any other disjoint time interval or region of space. In this way we
say that the Poisson process has no memory.
2. The probability that a single outcome will occur during a very short time interval or in a small
region is proportional to the length of the time interval or the size of the region and does not
depend on the number of outcomes occurring outside this time interval or region.
3. The probability that more than one outcome will occur in such a short time interval or fall in
such a small region is negligible.

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Note: Please
see Table of
 Poisson Probabilities

Example 5. During a laboratory experiment the average number of radioactive particles

passing through a counter in 1 millisecond is 4. What is the probability that 6 particles
enter the counter in a given millisecond?
Given: let x = number of radioactive particles passing through a counter in 1 millisecond
ʎt = 4 x= 6

Required: P( x=6)
Solution: P(x=6) = e- 4(4)6 = .1042 or 10. 42%
6!

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Written Assignment: Solve the following problems and submit your work under class
 work Written assignment M2. Poisson
1. . On average a certain intersection results in 3 traffic accidents per month. What
is the probability that for any given month at this intersection (a) exactly 5
accidents will occur? (b) less than 3 accidents will occur? (c) at least 2 accidents
will occur?

2 . A secretary makes 2 errors per page, on average. What is the probability that
on the next page he or she will make (a) 4 or more errors? (b) no errors?

Quiz Assignment: Solve the following problems and submit to our Google class room
under classwork Quiz Assignment M2. Some discrete probability distribution.
1. During a manufacturing process 15 units are randomly selected each day from the
production line to check the percent defective. From historical information it is known
that the probability of a defective unit is 0.05. Any time that two or more defectives are
found in the sample of 15, the process is stopped. This procedure is used to provide a
signal in case the probability of a defective has increased. (a) What is the probability that
on any given day the production process will be stopped? (Assume 5% defective.) (b)
Suppose that the probability of a defective has increased to 0.07. What is the probability
that on any given day the production process will not be stopped? (Answers: 0.1710,
0.2832)

2. A car rental agency at a local airport has available 5 Fords, 7 Chevrolets, 4 Dodges, 3
Hondas, and 4 Toyotas. If the agency randomly selects 9 of these cars to chauffeur
delegates from the airport to the downtown convention center, find the probability that 2
Fords. 3 Chevrolets, 1 Dodge, 1 Honda, and 2 Toyotas are used. (Answer: 0.0308)

3. Alocal drugstore owner knows that, on average, 100 people per hour stop by his store.
(a) Find the probability that in a given 3-minutc period nobody enters the store. (b) Find the
probability that in a given 3-minute period more than 5 people enter the store.
(Answers: 0.0067, 0.3840)

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