MODULE 4: Accident and Road Crash Analysis
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Based on your experiences, videos that you have watched, or articles that you
have read, state or discuss the situation that has happened within the past year
that involves road crashes or accidents.
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What are the causes of road crash accidents?
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What could have been done to prevent such accidents? Enumerate three and describe
each.
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You may refer to the textbook: Accident and Road Crash Analysis
One undesirable reality that comes with development is the increase in traffic
accidents concomitant with increased motorization and infrastructure. Every year,
worldwide, at least one million people are killed on the road, 70 percent of whom
are from countries classified by the World Bank as low- or middle-income. This worse
scenario among developing countries, like the Philippines, may be explained in
that priorities are geared toward infrastructure development, improving mobility,
and addressing the need for a better public transportation system. Conscious
efforts to ensure road safety than take a back seat.
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The state of road safety of a country or a region is normally gauged by the frequency of
accident occurrence. Key indicators are the number of accidents (fatal, injured, or
property damage) and the rates of accidents. For comparison studies, the rates are
normally used instead of the actual numbers.
Accident per Population: One measure of accident rate is per 100,000 population. For
instance, if a town, city, or region has N accident occurrences in one year and has a
population of P, then
𝑵
𝑨𝒑 = ∗ 𝟏𝟎𝟎, 𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝑷
Accident per Registered Vehicles: Another measure of accident rate is per 10,000
registered vehicles. Again, if there are N accidents in one year and the number of
registered vehicles for the same year is V, then
𝑵
𝑨𝑽 = ∗ 𝟏𝟎, 𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝑽
Accident Definition - The UN Organization (Geneva) defines traffic death as that which
occurs within thirty days of the event, i.e., a road accident victim who died within thirty
days of the incident is still considered a casualty of the accident. The Philippines defines
fatality as “death at the scene”. Serious injury and slight injury are defined based on the
extent of injury sustained and the length of time required by the injured to recover.
However, there is no exact definition of the seriousness of the injury. Property damage-only
accidents involve vehicles colliding with publicity or privately owned structures, equipment,
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and facilities located by the road. It also includes collision of vehicles with other vehicles
without causing physical injury to the driver, passenger, or any pedestrian
Accident Rate for Intersections- When analyzing traffic accidents at intersections, the total
entering traffic volume usually in AADT is considered. Equation 7.3 is used to compute the
accident rate per million entering vehicles (mev). The factor of 1,000,000 is applied for
convenience to obtain values of Ai within two to three digits.
1,000,000 ∗ 𝑁
𝐴 =
365 ∗ 𝑇 ∗ 𝑉
Where: N – total number of accidents in time T, T – the time frame of analysis, year, V –
AADT, or annual average daily traffic.
Accidents Rates for Road Sections-For segments of highways 1-2 km in length, accident
rates are computed based on total vehicle kilometers of travel. Equation 7.4 is used to
compute the accident rate per 100 million vehicle kilometers (mvk). Again the factor of 100
million is applied for convenience.
𝟏𝟎𝟎, 𝟎𝟎𝟎, 𝟎𝟎𝟎 ∗ 𝑵
𝑨𝒔 =
𝟑𝟔𝟓 ∗ 𝑻 ∗ 𝑽 ∗ 𝑳
Where: N – total number of accidents in time T, T – the time frame of analysis, year, V –
AADT or annual average daily traffic, L – length of the section in km.
Accidents by Time of Day: It is very alarming that most traffic accidents occurred during
night time. There may be other contributing factors, but the major ones could be (a)
inadequacy of street lightning, (b) lack of warning devices, and (c)0 complete disregard
of traffic signals during late night or early morning. Driver factor again plays a big part, e.g.,
falling asleep, the practice of using blinding headlights, drunkenness occurring more at
night due to parties, reduced visibility due to smoke-belchers, and even occurrence of
night blindness among malnourished drivers.
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IDENTIFYING HAZARDOUS LOCATIONS OR BLACKSPOTS
There are several methods in identifying blackspots or hazardous locations. Three methods
will be discussed, two of which are based on statistics and the other based on a certain
benchmark that is set considering budgetary constraints.
1. Classic Statistical Method- The method assumes that the number of accidents at
locations of interest follows a standard normal probability distribution. The method flags a
location as hazardous if it satisfies the following inequality:
𝑿𝒊 > 𝑿 + 𝑲 ∗ 𝑺
𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑋 = 𝑎𝑐𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑜𝑟 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑖,
X = mean frequency or rate for all locations under consideration,
K = Constant corresponding to a certain level of confidence
S = Sample Standard deviation for all locations
Commonly used level of confidence and K values
Level of Confidence in % K Values
90 1.282
95 1.645
99 2.327
Rate Quality Control Method: This is a variation of the classic statistical method. Instead of a
normal distribution, the method assumes that the number of accidents at a set of locations
follows a Poisson distribution. Also, the method applies only to rates and not to frequencies.
It compares the rate of a particular location to the mean rate at similar locations rather
than at all locations.
The method flags a location as hazardous if it satisfies the following inequality:
𝒀 𝟏
𝒀𝒊 > 𝒀 + 𝑲 ∗ ( )𝟎.𝟓 +
𝑽𝒊 𝟐𝑽𝒊
Where Yi= accident rate observed at location i, Ybar=mean accident rate for all locations
with characteristics similar to those of location i, V=Volume of traffic at location i, in the
same units as the accidents rate is given, K=same as in Classical Method.
Setting Benchmark Method: The third method requires arranging all accidents involving
casualties from highest to lowest as shown. When a certain benchmark is set, say five times
the average number of accidents, then the places or locations with more accidents than
this benchmark will be considered as blackspots. Perhaps using this method is more
suitable for the country, especially when the budget allocation for improving hazardous
locations is very limited.
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1. A town has a population of 350,000 in 2005. In the same year, the number of accidents
was 620. Determine the accident rate. (Ans: 177accidents per 100,000 Population)
2. The town in example 1 has 122,400 registered vehicles in 2005. Determine the accident
rate per registered vehicle. (ans: 51 accidents per 10,000 vehicles)
3. The T-intersection has had 1,746 collision incidents over the last three years. The annual
daily traffic is shown in the figure below
Determine the accident rate of the intersection. (ans: 28.4 accidents per mev)
4. A stretch of four-lane, two-way highway 5.0 km long has a traffic volume of 35,000
vehicles per day. If for the last three years, the total number of accidents recorded was
1,900, determine the accident rate per 100 mvk. (ans:991.5 accidents per 100mvk)
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5. A highway section has an accident rate of 150 accidents per 100 mvk. If the mean
accident rate for all sections is 55 per 100 mvk, and the standard deviation is 26 per 100
mvk, should the section under study be flagged as hazardous with 95 percent confidence?
(ans: 150>98 –The section has to be flagged as hazardous at 95% confidence level)
6: A section of road has 55 accidents recorded in three years. For the same period, the
estimated vehicle travel on the section was 23 mvk. Considering only those sections having
the same characteristics like the section under study, the mean rate is 80 accidents per 100
mvk. Is the section hazardous with a 95 percent level of confidence? (2.39>1.13, the
section is flagged as hazardous at a 95% level of confidence.
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Total Points: 20
1. A town has a population of 350,000 in 2005 if an annual growth of 5% is observed until the
year 2020. And at the year 2016, the number of accidents was 777. Determine the
accident rate in 2016. (3Pts)
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2. The town in example 1 has 150,400 registered vehicles in 2016. Determine the accident
rate per registered vehicle. (3Pts)
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3. The T-intersection has had 2,400 collision incidents over the last three years. The annual
daily traffic is shown in the figure below
Determine the accident rate of the intersection. (5Pts)
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4. A stretch of four-lane, two-way highway 5.0 km long has a traffic volume of 25,000
vehicles per day. If for the last three years, the total number of accidents recorded was
1,800, determine the accident rate per 99 mvk. (3Pts)
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5. A highway section has an accident rate of 150 accidents per 100 mvk. If the mean
accident rate for all sections is 55 per 100 mvk, and the standard deviation is 26 per 100
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mvk, should the section under study be flagged as hazardous with 90 percent confidence?
(3Pts)
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6: A section of road has 55 accidents recorded in three years. For the same period, the
estimated vehicle travel on the section was 23 mvk. Considering only those sections having
the same characteristics as the section under study, the mean rate is 80 accidents per 100
mvk. Is the section hazardous with 90 percent level of confidence? (3Pts)
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7. Based on the graph of the accidents time per day on ‘explain’, what time makes up the
most number of accidents? Discuss and explain why the frequency of accidents is high.
(5pts)
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