Plan Risk Mgmt Identify Risks Perform Qualitative Risk Perform Quantitative Risk Plan Risk Responses Implement

tive Risk Plan Risk Responses Implement Risk Monitor Risks

Defining how to ID individual & overall project Analysis (High Pri Tasks) Analysis (completed on top Dev options, strategies, & Responses Monitoring
conduct RM activities risk w/characteristics Individual Risks risks ONLY-ind and overall) agree on actions to RM risk resp plans, track ID risks, new risk,
eval effectiveness

I: Project Charter, I: PMP 63 PD (AL, CE, DE, IL, I: PMP (RMP); PD (AL, RR, I: PMP (RMP, B3); PD (AL, BOE, I: PMP (RscMP, RMP, CB); PD I: PMP (RMP); PD I: PMP (RMP); PD (IL, LLR, RR,
PMP 63 PD (SHR), LLR, REQD, RSR, SHR); SHR); EEF; OPA CE, CF, DE, ML, RSR, RR, RRPT, (LLR, PS, PTA, RC, RRPT, RR, (LLR, RR, RRPT); RRPT); Work Performance
OPA Agreement; Procurement SF); EEF; OPA SHR); EEF; OPA OPA Data (WPD) Work
Doc (contracts); EEF; OPA Performance Report (WPR)
TT: EJ, SH Analysis, TT: EJ, TT: EJ, DGT: INT; DAT: RDQA, TT: EJ; DGT: INT, Facilitation, TT: EJ; DGT: INT, Facilitation, TT: EJ, Influencing; TT: DAT: TPA, RA; Audits;
Meetings DGT: BS, CL, INT; RP&IA, PPDD MUCC SI Representation of Uncertainty; Strategies for Opps and PMIS Mtgs (risk review)
DAT: RCA, ACA, SWOT, DA, Facilitation; Risk Cat DAT: (SIM, SA, DTA, INF-D) Threats, Contingent
Facilitation; Prompt List; (RBS/WBS); P&I Matrix, Response, Overall Proj Risk;
Mtgs Hierarchy Chart;; Mtgs AA, CBA; MDA
O: RMP O: RR (ID RO, Risk Resp, list O: PD-U (AL, IL O: PD-U (RRPT (amount of CR O: Chng Requests; PMP-U O: Chng Requests; O: Work Performance Info
of risks),RRPT; PD-U (AL, IL, RR (watch-list), RRPT) est CR est, prioritized list of ind risks, (ReqMP, SchMP, $MP, QMP, PD-U ( IL, LLR, PTA, (WPI); Chng Req; PMP-U (Any
LLR) trends in quant, recommended RscMP, B3); PD-U (AL, CF, RR, RRPT) component); PD-U (AL, IL,
risk responses) LLR, PS, PTA, RR, RRPT) LLR, RR, RRPT) OPA Updates
Project Management Plan 63 Active= an est reserve w/o a response plan –Objective
Subjective Passive= no reserve, no response plan; monitoring only
Components of Risk Mgmt Plan 11
1. Requirements Mgmt Plan (ReqMP) Threats Opportunities
Common Risk Prompt Lists (incl RBS lvl 2<) 1. Risk Strategy
2. Schedule Mgmt Plan (SchMP) A²EMT E³SA 2. Methodology
PESTLE: Political, Economic, Social, Tech, Legal, Env
3. Cost Mgmt Plan ($MP) Avoid=eliminate Exploit=capture benefit 3. Roles and Responsibilities
4. Quality Mgmt Plan (QMP TECOP: Tech, Env, Commercial, Operational, Political 4. Funding/Budget
Mitigate=reduce Enhance=crashing 5. Timing
5. Resource Mgmt Plan (RscMP) VUCA: Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity
6. Risk Mgmt Plan (RMP) Transfer=3rd Party Share=partnership 6. Risk Category: RBS (Technical, Mgmt,
SPECTRUM: Socio-cultural, Political, Economic, Tech,
• Scope Baseline Escalate Escalate outside scope External, Project/commercial)
• Schedule Baseline B3 Regulation/Legal, Uncertainty, Market 7. Stakeholder Risk Threshold/Appetite
Accept A risk that cannot be mitigated, transferred, or avoided is accepted Accept 8. Definition of Probability and Impact
• Cost Baseline
9. P&I Matrix (PIM)
Project Document (PD)s Tools and Techniques (TT) 10. Reporting Format
1. Project Charter (PC) 10. Requirement Doc (REQD) 1. Expert Judgement (EJ) SWOT Analysis & Ishikawa CE 11. Tracking
2. Stakeholder Register (SHR) 11. Resource Document (RD) 2. Data Gathering Technique (DGT) Document Analysis (DA)
3. Assumption Log (AL) 12. Basis of Estimate (BOE) Brainstorming (BS) Prompt Lists (PL) (PESTLE, TECOP, VUCA) Decision Tree Analysis (DTA) EMV
4. Issue Log (IL) 13. Cost Forecast (CF) Checklists (CL) (reminder) Meeting (Risk Workshop) Influence Diagram (INF-D) Sys Dyn (SD)
5. Lessons Learned Register (LLR) 14. Milestone List (ML) Interviews (INT) Risk Data Quality Assessment (RDQA) Alternative Analysis (AA)
6. Risk Register (RR) 15. Resource Requirements (RSR) Facilitation Risk P&I Assessment (RP&IA) Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA)
7. Risk Report (RRPT) 16. Schedule Forecast (SF) 3. Data Analysis Tech (DAT) Assessment of Other Risk Parameters Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MDA)
8. Cost Estimate (CE) 17. Project Schedule (PS) Root Cause Analysis (RCA) Simulation (SIM) Monte Carlo Technical Performance Analysis (TPA)
9. Duration Estimate (DE) 18. Project Team Assignment (PTA) Assumption and Constraint Analysis Sensitivity Analysis (SA) Tornado Reserve Analysis (RA)
Process Groups (5) Initiating Planning Executing Monitoring & Closing
Knowledge Areas (10) Controlling Project Team 5 Engagement Levels of
Assignments Stakeholders
Project Risk Mgmt • Risk Attitude • Accountability • Monitoring confirmed after 1. Unaware
Proj Integration Mgmt • Risk Mgmt Approach for RM processes Approach the PRR phase Enterprise Risk 2. Resistant
Proj Scope Mgmt • Adaptation to Life • Accountability • Use of WPD Project Sponsor Management (ERM) 3. Neutral
Proj Schedule Mgmt Cycle for response • Continuous
• Integration w/other implementation Improvement of RM
4. Supportive
Proj Cost Mgmt
Project Plans 5. Leading
Proj Quality Mgmt
Proj Resource Mgmt • Tolerances Risk Owners Project Manager Project Mgmt Team
• Secondary and Responsible:
Proj Comm Mgmt 4 Risk Factors
Residual Tasks plan risk resp /
Proj Procurement Mgmt 1. Expected Timing
Proj Stakeholder Mgmt accountable for
each risk 2. Probability
RISK EXISTS AT 2 LEVELS Risk PMO 3. Impact
Assessment of Other Risk Parameters: aids in Individual Project Risk & Overall Project Risk Manager 4. Frequency
prioritizing individual project risks PPDD MUCC SI 2 Types of non-event risks Roles and Responsibilities outlined in the RMP
Proximity, Propinquity, Dormancy, Detectability Variability Risk: productivity above/below target
Manageability, Urgency, Controllability, Connectivity Ambiguity Risk: lack of knowledge or understanding of 3 Risk Acceptance Levels 3 Risk Attitudes RA³
Strategic Impact certain aspects of the project 1. Risk Appetite: a general high-level description 1. Risk Averse
2. Risk Tolerance: measurable amount of risk 2. Risk Seeker
16 Components of a 3. Risk Threshold: point at risk is unacceptable # 3. Risk Neutral/Taker
ANALYSIS
1. Risk #
Risk Register
P*I
2. Date Added OCCURRED Risks REMOVE the IMPACT | OUTDATED Risks REMOVE the EMV / Reserve
3. Status
4. Risk
5. Root Cause
6. Effect
7. Category (B3)
8. Risk Owner
9. Probability
10. Impact
11. PIM Score
12. Urgency (time)
13. Strategy (A²EMT or E³SA)
14. Strategy Description
15. Trigger Event
16. Contingent Response
 Math Topic Knowledge Area
Unknown-Known Unknown-Unknown
Hidden Fact Emergent Risk (managed in MR) Assumption = “Yes” “Yes”
Project Selection Methods Integration Mgmt
”False” “False”
Known-Known Known-Unknown Activity Duration / Cost Estimation Schedule and Cost Mgmt
Facts and Requirements Identified Risk (managed in CR) = Risk/Impact to project
Critical Path Method Schedule Mgmt
Earned Value Analysis Cost Mgmt
RBS RBS RBS Fixed Price Schedule Network
Analysis Communication Channels Communication Mgmt
LVL 0 LVL 1 LVL 2 FFP, FPIF, FPEPA Fast Tracking: Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Risk Mgmt
Executing activities in
Scope Definition, Point of Total Assumption Procurement Mgmt
Technical Risk req def,
Cost Reimbursable parallel thus + increases risk
estimate, a/c

Mgmt Risk
Mgmt. org,
resourcing,
CPFF, CPIF, CPAF Crashing: Salience Model Power
communication
Sources of Adding or adjusting
Project Risks Contractual
Commercial Risk Terms /
resources ($$ and time) IOT
Conditions Time and Material compress the schedule
Legislation,
External Risk facility,
Legitimacy Urgency
competition Risk Priority Number =
Severity x Occurrence x
o 3 Point Estimating Detection
Communication Channels The network diagram has two paths
▪ P= Pessimistic, the worst-case scenario
N = N (1-N) / 2 ▪ M= Most Likely
Activity 1 – Activity 2 – Activity 5 = 17 days
N = # of Stakeholders Activity 1 – Activity 3 – Activity 4 – Activity 5 = 21 days
▪ O= Optimistic, the fastest time
Critical path is the second path, so the float/slack is 21 Days – 17 Days = 4 Days
• Triangle Distribution: (little to no historical data)
Float = LS –ES o EAD= (P+M+O)/3
• Beta or PERT Distribution: (with good known historical
Float = LF -EF
data/weighted average)
o EAD=(P+4M+O)/6
o Beta Standard Deviation
▪ Beta SD =(P-O)/6
▪ Activity Range of Estimate = EAD +/- SD

Activities on the critical path have zero float, any delay in critical path activities will lead to a
negative float, path with the longest duration is the critical path
 Technique(s) Descriptions Risk Terminology
Affinity Diagram Organized based on ideas and similarities, looks for missing categories (reminder) sorting/group
Pure Risk: any risk that can be insured. Property damage, health
Analytic Hierarchy Process Used to support a multi-criteria decision-making process. The prioritized list already completed
(AHP) life, equipment breakage

Cause and Effect (Ishikawa) Promotes structure thinking, identifies the likelihood of risks and sources Business Risk: any risk that cannot be insured. Lost of contract,

Checklists Lowest level of RBS, requires regular maintenance, based on historical info, helps id specific stock price, cost overruns
risks within each category
Secondary Risk: any risk that is induced by implementing a risk
Delphi Tech It captures input from technical experts, removes bias, and sends info to experts. Voting
response.
FMEA (aka Fault Tree Analysis) Structured report, est of overall reliability using quantitative tools. Engineering context
Residual Risk: any risk that remains after a risk response has been
Influence Diagrams Exposes key risk drivers, can generate counterintuitive insights
implemented.
Monte Carlo Simulation Used in the project schedule and cost analysis, calculates quantitative est of OVERALL risks
Contingency Plan: a planned risk response that’s implemented in
Nominal Group Technique All participate, brainstorming with voting process to rank ideas,
response to a particular event occurring
Reserve Analysis Gives early warning of the need to comm w/sponsor, track spend and releasing contingency $
as risk expire; ensures accurate CR of cost and schedule, no remaining CR you didn’t RA Fallback Plan: an alternative set of actions and tasks available in the
Risk Reassessment Forces a review of risks, when necessary, conducted when high impact risk remains open near event that the primary plan needs to be abandoned because of
completion 2 Major Times RR occurs: new risks id’ed and when changes occur on the project
issues, risks or other causes
Root Cause Analysis (RCA) Identifies gaps in process/activities
Workaround: an unplanned response to an UNIDENTIFIED risk that
Trend Analysis Used to indicate effective on previous actions, requires an understanding of significant and
non-significant variation occurs
SWOT Analysis Ensures equal focus on T & O; focus on internal S/W and external T/O
• Cost Baseline= $ of activities + CR

<cause><risk><effect>
Variance Analysis Compares planned vs actual results • Project Budget = Cost Baseline + MR

Risk Metalanguage
• Schedule Baseline = critical path method + CR
• Project Schedule = sched baseline + CR
• Cost Performance Index (CPI) = EV/AC • Threats + add to the Contingency Reserve
• Schedule Performance Index (SPI) = EV/PV • Opportunities – reduce the CR
o If CPI is >1 project is under budget/cost underrun
o If CPI is <1 project is above budget/cost overrun
o If SPI is >1 project is ahead of schedule
o If SPI is <1 project is behind schedule