TPCC 12 – PRINCIPLES OF
TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING
ENGR. AMADEUS B. PALOMATA
CHAPTER 4
Introduction to Travel Demand and
Forecasting
PART 2
Lesson Outcomes
At the end of the chapter, you should be able to:
▪ Define what is trip distribution.
▪ Apply the different methods in trip distribution.
▪ Estimate the number of trips between zones using
gravity model and growth factor model.
Chapter Outline for Part 2
▪ TRIP DISTRIBUTION
▪ GRAVITY MODEL
▪ GROWTH FACTOR MODEL
Remember – no cheating!
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
▪ Trip distribution is a process by
which the trips generated in one
zone are allocated to other zones in Downtown
the study area. Madaum
▪ These trips may be within the study Apokon
area (internal-internal) or between
the study area and areas outside the
study area (internal-external).
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
▪ This step matches trip makers’
origins and destinations to develop a
“trip table”, a matrix that displays Downtown
the number of trips going from each Madaum
origin to each destination. Apokon
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
Trip distribution has several methods such as:
▪ Gravity model
▪ Growth factor model
GRAVITY MODEL
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
▪ The most widely used and documented trip distribution model.
▪ It states that the number of trips between two zones is directly
proportional to the number of trip attractions generated by the zone of
destination and inversely proportional to a function of time of travel
between the two zones.
▪ It can be singly or doubly constrained model
▪ Singly constrained, if the sum of productions in each zone is equal to the
number of productions from the given problem statement.
▪ Doubly constrained, if both sum of productions and attractions in each zones
are equal to the production and attraction of the given problem statement.
GRAVITY MODEL
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
Mathematically, the gravity model is expressed as
where
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = number of trips that are produced in zone 𝑖 and attracted to zone 𝑗
𝑃𝑖 = total number of trips produced in zone 𝑖
𝐴𝑗 = number of trips attracted to zone 𝑗
𝐹𝑖𝑗 = a value which is an inverse function of travel time
𝐾𝑖𝑗 = socioeconomic adjustment factor for interchange 𝑖𝑗
GRAVITY MODEL
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
The values of 𝑃𝑖 and 𝐴𝑗 have been determined in the trip generation
process. The sum of 𝑃𝑖 for all zones must equal the sum of 𝐴𝑗 for all
zones. 𝐾𝑖𝑗 values are used when the estimated trip interchange must be
adjusted to ensure that it agrees with the observed trip interchange.
CALIBRATION OF “F” VALUE
▪ The values for 𝐹𝑖𝑗 are determined by a calibrating process in which trip generation
values as measured in the Origin-Destination survey are distributed using the
gravity model.
▪ These values are based in travel time and cost between zones.
▪ After the distribution procedure is complete, percentage of trip length produced by
the gravity model is compared to the recorded percentage in Origin-Destination
Survey.
▪ If percentages do not agree, the 𝐹𝑖𝑗 that were used will be adjusted and another trip
distribution is performed.
▪ This calibration continuous until both percentages agree. The agreed percentage
should fall within 5% from computed and given.
CALIBRATION OF “F” VALUE
CALIBRATION OF “K” VALUE
▪ The 𝐾𝑖𝑗 value is the socioeconomic factor that is used to make
adjustments of trip distribution 𝐾𝑖𝑗 between zones where differences
between estimated and actual values are significant.
▪ The 𝐾𝑖𝑗 values are determined in calibration process but it is used
judiciously when a zone is considered to possess unique characteristics.
CALIBRATION OF “K” VALUE
▪ Common Socioeconomic Factors:
At the Trip Production End (Origins):Population size, Number of
households, Income level, Car ownership, Employment type (e.g., office vs.
labor)
At the Trip Attraction End (Destinations):
Number of jobs or businesses, Size of commercial areas or malls,
Availability of schools, hospitals, or offices, Land use types (residential,
industrial, commercial).
SAMPLE PROBLEM
Determine the trip distribution of each zone by singly and doubly
constraints.
Note: F values were already calibrated and K values for all zone is 1.
SOLUTION
Step 1. Calculate the initial values of trip distribution
of each zones using the formula
𝐴𝑖 𝐹𝑖𝑗 𝐾𝑖𝑗
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑃𝑖
σ 𝐴𝑖 𝐹𝑖𝑗 𝐾𝑖𝑗
From Zone 1
300∗39∗1
𝑇1−1 = 140 = 47
300∗39∗1 + 270∗52∗1 +(180∗50∗1)
270∗52∗1
𝑇1−2 = 140 = 57
300∗39∗1 + 270∗52∗1 +(180∗50∗1)
180∗50∗1
𝑇1−3 = 140 = 36
300∗39∗1 + 270∗52∗1 +(180∗50∗1)
SOLUTION
Step 1. Calculate the initial values of trip distribution
of each zones using the formula
𝐴𝑖 𝐹𝑖𝑗 𝐾𝑖𝑗
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑃𝑖
σ 𝐴𝑖 𝐹𝑖𝑗 𝐾𝑖𝑗
From Zone 2
300∗52∗1
𝑇2−1 = 330 = 188
300∗52∗1 + 270∗26∗1 +(180∗26∗1)
270∗26∗1
𝑇2−2 = 330 = 85
300∗52∗1 + 270∗26∗1 +(180∗26∗1)
180∗26∗1
𝑇2−3 = 330 = 57
300∗52∗1 + 270∗26∗1 +(180∗26∗1)
SOLUTION
Step 1. Calculate the initial values of trip distribution
of each zones using the formula
𝐴𝑖 𝐹𝑖𝑗 𝐾𝑖𝑗
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑃𝑖
σ 𝐴𝑖 𝐹𝑖𝑗 𝐾𝑖𝑗
From Zone 3
300∗50∗1
𝑇3−1 = 280 = 144
300∗50∗1 + 270∗26∗1 +(180∗39∗1)
270∗26∗1
𝑇3−2 = 280 = 68
300∗50∗1 + 270∗26∗1 +(180∗39∗1)
180∗39∗1
𝑇3−3 = 280 = 68
300∗50∗1 + 270∗26∗1 +(180∗39∗1)
SOLUTION
Step 2. Tabulate the Zone-to-Zone trips.
Since computed P is equal only to the given P
then the iteration is Singly Constrained.
SOLUTION
Step 3. Determine the multiplier to correct the Computed A to make it equal to the Given A.
300 270 180
𝑀𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 1 = = 0.79 𝑀𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 2 = = 1.29 𝑀𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 3 = = 1.12
379 210 161
SOLUTION
Step 4. Use the multiplier to adjust the values per Zone-to-Zone trips according to columns
300 270 180
𝑀𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 1 = = 0.79 𝑀𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 2 = = 1.29 𝑀𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 3 = = 1.12
379 210 161
SOLUTION
Step 5. Determine the multiplier to adjust the values per Zone-to-Zone trips according to rows.
140
𝑀𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 1 = = 0.93
150
330
𝑀𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 2 = = 1.02
322
280
𝑀𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 3 = = 1.01
278
SOLUTION
Step 6. Use the multiplier to adjust the values per Zone-to-Zone trips according to rows.
140
𝑀𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 1 = = 0.93
150
330
𝑀𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 2 = = 1.02
322
280
𝑀𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 3 = = 1.01
278
SOLUTION
Step 7. The Computed values of both Attractions and Productions are almost the same as the
Given values, try to adjust manually.
SOLUTION
Step 7. The Computed values of both Attractions and Productions are almost the same as the
Given values, try to adjust manually.
Zone 1 2 3 Computed P Given P
1 34 68 38 140 140
2 152 113 65 330 330
3 114 89 77 280 280
Computed A 300 270 180 750 750
Given A 300 270 180 750
SOLUTION
Step 8. Present the tabulation for Doubly Constrained model.
GROWTH FACTOR MODEL
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
▪ This method is widely used when Origin-Destination data is the only
available.
▪ Can only be used in forecasting traffic on between zones where traffic is
existing.
▪ But this method can’t reflect the changes in travel time between zones.
▪ The most common method in growth factor is the Fratar method which is a
formula that proportionate the future trip generation estimates to each
zone as a function of a product to the current trips between two zones and
the growth factor of the attracting zones.
GROWTH FACTOR MODEL
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
When to use this method?
▪ When you already have historical trip data.
▪ You want to forecast future trip patterns based on expected growth in trip
productions and attractions.
▪ Often used when full recalibration(like in gravity model) is not feasible due
to limited data.
GROWTH FACTOR MODEL
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
Limitations
▪ Doesn’t account for changes in travel cost/distance
▪ Can overestimate or misallocate trips if the urban structure changes
significantly
▪ Less accurate than models based on behavioral patterns.
GROWTH FACTOR MODEL
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
▪ The Fratar method is summarized by the formula given below.
SAMPLE PROBLEM
Determine the number of trips between each zone for future conditions.
SOLUTION
Step 1. Calculate the initial values of trips of each
zones using the formula
𝑡𝑖𝑗 𝐺𝑖
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑡𝑖 𝐺𝑖
σ 𝑡𝑖𝑥 𝐺𝑥
From Zone A
400∗1.1
𝑇𝐴𝐵 = 600 ∗ 1.2 = 446
400∗1.1 + 100∗1.4 +(100∗1.3)
100∗1.4
𝑇𝐴𝐶 = 600 ∗ 1.2 = 142
400∗1.1 + 100∗1.4 +(100∗1.3)
100∗1.3
𝑇𝐴𝐷 = 600 ∗ 1.2 = 132
400∗1.1 + 100∗1.4 +(100∗1.3)
SOLUTION
Step 1. Calculate the initial values of trips of each
zones using the formula
𝑡𝑖𝑗 𝐺𝑖
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑡𝑖 𝐺𝑖
σ 𝑡𝑖𝑥 𝐺𝑥
From Zone B
400∗1.2
𝑇𝐵𝐴 = 700 ∗ 1.1 = 411
400∗1.2 + 300∗1.4
300∗1.4
𝑇𝐵𝐶 = 700 ∗ 1.1 = 359
400∗1.2 + 300∗1.4
SOLUTION
Step 1. Calculate the initial values of trips of each
zones using the formula
𝑡𝑖𝑗 𝐺𝑖
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑡𝑖 𝐺𝑖
σ 𝑡𝑖𝑥 𝐺𝑥
From Zone C
100∗1.2
𝑇𝐶𝐴 = 700 ∗ 1.4 = 140
100∗1.2 + 300∗1.1 +(300∗1.3)
300∗1.1
𝑇𝐶𝐵 = 700 ∗ 1.4 = 385
100∗1.2 + 300∗1.1 +(300∗1.3)
300∗1.3
𝑇𝐶𝐷 = 700 ∗ 1.4 = 455
100∗1.2 + 300∗1.1 +(300∗1.3)
SOLUTION
Step 1. Calculate the initial values of trips of each
zones using the formula
𝑡𝑖𝑗 𝐺𝑖
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑡𝑖 𝐺𝑖
σ 𝑡𝑖𝑥 𝐺𝑥
From Zone D
100∗1.2
𝑇𝐷𝐴 = 400 ∗ 1.3 = 116
100∗1.2 + 300∗1.4
300∗1.4
𝑇𝐷𝐶 = 400 ∗ 1.3 = 404
100∗1.2 + 300∗1.4
SOLUTION
Step 2. Calculate the average values of trip distribution of each pair zones such
as 𝑇𝐴𝐵 and 𝑇𝐵𝐴
From pairs AB From pairs AC From pairs AD
𝑇𝐴𝐵 +𝑇𝐵𝐴 446+411 𝑇𝐴𝐶 +𝑇𝐶𝐴 142+140 𝑇𝐴𝐷 +𝑇𝐷𝐴 132+116
𝑇𝐴𝐵 = = = 428 𝑇𝐴𝐶 = = = 141 𝑇𝐴𝐷 = = = 124
2 2 2 2 2 2
From pairs BC From pairs CD
𝑇𝐵𝐶 +𝑇𝐶𝐵 359+385 𝑇𝐶𝐷 +𝑇𝐷𝐶 455+404
𝑇𝐵𝐶 = = = 372 𝑇𝐶𝐷 = = = 430
2 2 2 2
SOLUTION
Step 3. Tabulate the number of trips for the first estimate.
SOLUTION
Step 4. Determine the growth factor for the second estimate.
720
𝑀𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝐴 = = 1.04
693
770
𝑀𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝐵 = = 0.96
800
980
𝑀𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝐶 = = 1.04
943
520
𝑀𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝐷 = = 0.94
554
ASSIGNMENT PROBLEM 1
Estimate the number of trips for each zone-to-zone using the Gravity model then present the
Singly Constrained and Doubly Constrained.
Note: K values for all zone is 1.
ASSIGNMENT PROBLEM 2
Continue the sample problem from Growth Factor model by estimating the trips between zones
in 2nd iteration. Using the newly acquired values.
END OF
CHAPTER 4
PART 2