Self Learning Material

Paper Code: STSC2 Probability Theory & Statistical Distribution

MINSTS2: Basic Probability Theory &Distributions
GECSTS2: Basics of Statistical Distributions & Inference

Prepared By

Dr. Bornali Dutta

Assistant Professor and HoD Statistics, Gargaon College

E-mail: bornalidutta75@[Link]

Unit 1: Probability:
Introduction, random experiments, sample space, events and algebra of events, Definition of
probability- Classical, statistical and axiomatic. Conditional probability, laws of addition and
multiplication, independent events, theorem of total probability, Bayes‟ theorem and its
applications.
Experiment:
It is any physical action or process that is observed and the result is noted.
Random Experiment:
An experiment in which all possible outcomes are known and the exact outcomes can not be
predicted in advance is random experiment. e.g.: tossing a coin, throwing a die, selecting a card
from a pack of playing cards.
Sample Space: The set of all the sample points in a random experiment is called sample space.
Event: Non empty subset of sample space.
Trial: Any particular performance of a random experiment is called a trial.
Exhaustive Events: The total number of possible outcomes of a random experiment is known as
the exhaustive events or cases. For example: in tossing a coin there are two exhaustive cases viz.,
head and tail; in throwing a die, there are 6 exhaustive cases since any one of the 6 faces 1,2,…6
may uppermost.
Favourable Events or cases: It is the specific results or outcomes of a random experiment that
align with the event of interest. Example : in throwing of two dice, the number of cases
favourable to getting the sum 5 is (1,4), (4,1), (2,3), (3,2) i.e. 4.
If we want to draw a heart from a standard pack of 52 cards, there are 13 favourable outcomes.
Mutually Exclusive Events: Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if the happening of
one event prevents the happening of the other event is called mutually exclusive events. i.e. the
two events cannot happen together.
e.g. in tossing a coin the events head and tail are mutually exclusive.
Equally likely events: It is the outcomes in a random experiment that have the same probability
of occurring. e.g. in a random toss of an unbiased or uniform coin, head and tail are equally
likely events. In throwing an unbiased die, all the six faces are equally likely to come.
Independent Events: The events where the outcome of one does not affect the outcomes of the
other events. E.g. when a die is thrown twice, the result of the first throw does not affect the
result of the second throw.

Introduction to Probability
The word probability means possibility with uncertainty. According to Ya-Lin Chou –
Probability is the science of decision making with calculated risks in the face of uncertainty.
In our daily life we come across any situations that may or may not happen. When we calculate
the possibility of something happen or not by mathematically assigning some values is called
probability.
There are three definitions of probability –
(i) Mathematical / Classical / a priori probability
(ii) Statistical/ Empirical probability
(iii) Axiomatic Probability

Mathematical/ Classical/ a priori Probability:

If a random experiment results in “n” exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally likely
outcomes, out of which m are favourable to the occurrence of an event E, then the probability
“p” of occurrence of E, usually denoted by P(E) is given by

no. of favourable cases m

P= P(E)=  ..............(i)
total number of exhaustive cases n
Since m  0, n  0 and m  n
Therefore, P  E   0 and P  E   1  0  P  E   1

If P(E)=1, E is called certain event and if P(E)=0, is called an impossible event.

Limitations:
(i) If the various outcomes of the random experiment are not equally likely
(ii) If the exhaustive number of outcomes of the random experiment is infinite or unknown.

Algebra of Events:
Since the events are subsets of S the laws of set theory hold for algebra of events. If A, B, C are
the subsets of S.

(i) A  B  B  A, A  B  B  A
(ii) A  ( B  C )  ( A  B)  C , A  ( B  C )  ( A  B)  C
(iii) A  ( B  C )  ( A  B)  ( A  C ), A  ( B  C )  ( A  B)  ( A  C )
(iv) A A  S , A  A   , A  S  S , A  S  A , A   A , A   
(v) De-Morgan’s Law
A B  A B A B  A B

(vi)  A  A
Theorem1: Probability of an impossible event is zero.
Proof: Certain event and impossible event  are mutually exclusive.
S   S
 PS    PS 
 P  S   P    P  S 
 P    0
Theorem 2: P  A   1  P  A 
Proof: The event A and its complementary event A are mutually exclusive.
A A  S
 
 P A  A  PS 
 P  A  P  A   1  P  S   1
 P  A   1  P  A

Example 1: Two dice are thrown simultaneously. Find the probability of getting even
numbers on both the dice.

Solution: The sample space is S  1, 2,3, 4,5,61, 2,3, 4,5,6

1,11, 2 1,31, 4 1,5 1,6  

 
 2,1 2, 2  2,3 2, 4  2,5 2,6  
 
 3,1 3, 2  3,3 3, 4  3,5 3,6  
 
 4,1 4, 2  4,3 4, 4  4,5 4,6  
 5,1 5, 2 5,3 5, 4 5,5 5,6 
       
 6,1 6, 2  6,3 6, 4  6,5 6,6  
 

 n  S   36

n  A   09
9 1
 P  A  
36 4

Example 2: What is the probability that a leap year selected at random will contain 53
Sundays?
Solution: In a leap year (consists of 366 days) there are 52 complete weeks and 2 more days.
There will be 53 Sundays if one of these two days is a Sunday. The possibilities are
(i) Sunday and Monday
(ii) Monday and Tuesday
 (iii) Tuesday and Wednesday
(iv) Wednesday and Thursday
(v) Thursday and Friday
(vi) Friday and Saturday
(vii) Saturday and Sunday
n S   7
n  A  2
2
 P  A 
7
Example 3: A single letter selected at random from the word ‘STATISTICS’. What is the
probability that it is a vowel?
Solution: Here, as the total number of letters in the word „STATISTICS‟ is
n = 10, and the number of vowels in the word is m = 3 (vowels are a, i, i),
𝑛𝑜 .𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 3
The required probability = = 10
𝑛𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑥ℎ𝑎𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠

CONCEPT OF ODDS IN FAVOUR OF AND AGAINST THE HAPPENING OF AN

EVENT

Let n be the number of exhaustive cases in a random experiment which are mutually exclusive
and equally likely as well. Let m out of these n cases are favourable to the happening of an event
A (say). Thus, the number of cases against A is 𝑛 − 𝑚. Then odds in favour of event A
are ( 𝑚: 𝑛 − 𝑚) (i.e. m ratio𝑛 − 𝑚) and odds against A are 𝑛 − 𝑚: 𝑚.

Example 4: If odds in favour of event A are 3: 4, what is the probability of happening A?

Solution:
As odds in favour of event A are 3:4,
∴ 𝑚 = 3 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑛 − 𝑚 = 4 𝑖𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑛 = 7
𝑚 3
Probability of happening of A i.e. 𝑃 𝐴 = =7
𝑛

STATISTICAL OR EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY:

If an experiment is performed repeatedly under essentially homogeneous and identical

conditions, then the limiting value of the ratio of the number of times the event occurs to the
number of trials, as the number of trials becomes indefinitely large, is called probability of
happening of the event, it being assumed that the limit is finite and unique.

Symbolically, if in N trials an event E happens M times, then the probability of the happening of
E, denoted by 𝑃(𝐸) is given by –
M
P  E   lim
N  N
Limitations of Empirical Probability:
(i) If an experiment is repeated a large number of times, the experimental conditions may
not remain identical and homogeneous.
M
(ii) Sometimes the limit in the equation P  E   lim may not attain a unique value,
N  N
however large N may be.

Remarks: The concept of Empirical Probability was proposed by Von Mises.

Axiomatic Probability:

A purely mathematical definition of probability cannot give us the actual value of P(A), the
probability of occurrence of the event A and this must be considered as a function defined on all
events.
In the axiomatic definition of probability, we start with a probability space „S‟ where set „S‟ of
abstract objects is called outcomes. The set S and its subsets are called events. The probability of
an outcome A is by definition a number P(A) assigned to A. Such a number satisfies the
following axioms:
(i) P  A   0 i.e., P (A) is nonnegative number.
(ii) The probability of the certain event S is 1, i.e., P (S) = 1.
(iii) If two events A and B have no common elements, or, A and B are mutually exclusive,
the probability of the event (A U B) consisting of the outcomes that are in A or in B
equals to sum of their probabilities:
P (A U B) = P (A) + P (B)

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