Week 4
Theory of alliance formation
- What causes states to support one another’s foreign policy/how do states
choose their friends?
- States ally to balance against threats rather than against power alone
- Neither foreign aid nor political penetration is by itself a powerful case of
alignment
China and Russia
Phase 1: Alliance in the early years
- Newly established China was isolated and faced many enemies.
- Leaning towards Moscow for economic assistance and security:
soviet as the model of China, friendship
- Enlarging the camp of communist parties/states
Phase 2: Sino-Soviet split and radicalisation of China’s
FP
- De-Stalinisation in the Soviet Union
- Khrushchev’s ‘peaceful coexistence’ v Mao’s revisionism
- Mao stood firm in confronting both Soviet Union and USA
Phase 3: US and China against the Soviet
- Nixon’s visit in 1972 “the visit that changed the world” – the enemy
of my enemy is my friend
- Full diplomatic relations with US established in 1979
- Allowed China to establish relations with US allies
Phase 4: Post-Cold War
- From a constructive partnership to a strategic partnership
- Increasing anti-Western stance- started to adopt similar positions on
major political issues
- Eliminating sources of conflict: 1991 Sino-Soviet Broder Agreement,
mutual border demilitarisation, establishing a common security
space
Phase 5: No Limits Partnership
- Xi Jinping and Putin announced no limits partnership- a couple of
weeks later Russia invaded Ukraine
- Both are called strategic competitors by the US
- China is no longer the junior partner – position reversal
China and Ukraine War – whoever loses the
war, China wins.
- Ukraine War diverted US attention and means from China
- The prospect of permanently weakened Russia
- China has access to cheap raw materials from Russia
- Lessons learned from China: the limits of US and allies’
commitments and diminishing support for wars