MBA-H2040 Quantitative Techniques

for Managers

UNIT III

NETWORK PROBLEMS
Introduction
A network consists of several destinations or jobs which are linked with one another. A
manager will have occasions to deal with some network or other. Certain problems pertaining
to networks are taken up for consideration in this unit.

LESSON 1

SHORTEST PATH PROBLEM

LESSON OUTLINE
 The description of a shortest path problem.
 The determination of the shortest path.

LEARNING OBJECTIVES
After reading this lesson you should be able to
- understand a shortest path problem
- understand the algorithm for a shortest path problem
- work out numerical problems

THE PROBLEM
Imagine a salesman or a milk vendor or a post man who has to cover certain previously earmarked places to
perform his daily routines. It is assumed that all the places to be visited by him are connected well for a suitable
mode of transport. He has to cover all the locations. While doing so, if he visits the same place again and again
on the same day, it will be a loss of several resources such as time, money, etc. Therefore he shall place a
constraint upon himself not to visit the same place again and again on the same day. He shall be in a position to
determine a route which would enable him to cover all the locations, fulfilling the constraint.
The shortest route method aims to find how a person can travel from one location to another, keeping
the total distance traveled to the minimum. In other words, it seeks to identify the shortest route to a series of
destinations.

EXAMPLE
Let us consider a real life situation involving a shortest route problem.
A leather manufacturing company has to transport the finished goods from the factory
to the store house. The path from the factory to the store house is through certain

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intermediate stations as indicated in the following diagram. The company executive wants to
identify the path with the shortest distance so as to minimize the transportation cost. The
problem is to achieve this objective.

95 Store house

2 4
Factory 40 40
35 65 70 6
40
1
100
5
20
3
Linkages from Factory to Store house

The shortest route technique can be used to minimize the total distance from a node designated as the
starting node or origin to another node designated as the final node.
In the example under consideration, the origin is the factory and the final node is the store house.
STEPS IN THE SHORTEST ROUTE TECHNIQUE
The procedure consists of starting with a set containing a node and enlarging the set by choosing a node in each
subsequent step.
Step 1:
First, locate the origin. Then, find the node nearest to the origin. Mark the distance between the origin and the
nearest node in a box by the side of that node.
In some cases, it may be necessary to check several paths to find the nearest node.
Step 2:
Repeat the above process until the nodes in the entire network have been accounted for. The last distance placed
in a box by the side of the ending node will be the distance of the shortest route. We note that the distances
indicated in the boxes by each node constitute the shortest route to that node. These distances are used as
intermediate results in determining the next nearest node.
SOLUTION FOR THE EXAMPLE PROBLEM
Looking at the diagram, we see that node 1 is the origin and the nodes 2 and 3 are neighbours
to the origin. Among the two nodes, we see that node 2 is at a distance of 40 units from node
1 whereas node 3 is at a distance of 100 units from node 1. The minimum of {40, 100} is 40.
Thus, the node nearest to the origin is node 2, with a distance of 40 units. So, out of the two
nodes 2 and 3, we select node 2. We form a set of nodes {1, 2} and construct a path
connecting the node 2 with node 1 by a thick line and mark the distance of 40 in a box by the
side of node 2. This first iteration is shown in the following diagram.

40

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95 Store house

2 4
40 40
6
Factory 35 65 70
1 40
5
100
3
20
ITERATION No. 1

Now we search for the next node nearest to the set of nodes {1, 2}. For this purpose, consider those
nodes which are neighbours of either node 1 or node 2. The nodes 3, 4 and 5 fulfill this condition. We calculate
the following distances.
The distance between nodes 1 and 3 = 100.
The distance between nodes 2 and 3 = 35.
The distance between nodes 2 and 4 = 95.
The distance between nodes 2 and 5 = 65.
Minimum of {100, 35, 95, 65} = 35.
Therefore, node 3 is the nearest one to the set {1, 2}. In view of this observation, the set of nodes is enlarged
from {1, 2} to {1, 2, 3}. For the set {1, 2, 3}, there are two possible paths, viz. Path 1 → 2 → 3 and Path 1 →
3 → 2. The Path 1 → 2 → 3 has a distance of 40 + 35 = 75 units while the Path 1 → 3 → 2 has a distance of
100 + 35 = 135 units.
Minimum of {75, 135} = 75. Hence we select the path 1 → 2 → 3 and display this path by thick edges. The
distance 75 is marked in a box by the side of node 3. We obtain the following diagram at the end of Iteration
No. 2.

40
95 Store house

2 4
Factory 40 40
6
35 65 70
1 40
5
100
3
20
75

ITERATION No. 2
REPEATING THE PROCESS
We repeat the process. The next node nearest to the set {1, 2, 3} is either node 4 or node 5.
Node 4 is at a distance of 95 units from node 2 while node 2 is at a distance of 40 units
from node 1. Thus, node 4 is at a distance of 95 + 40 = 135 units from the origin.

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As regards node 5, there are two paths viz. 2 → 5 and 3 → 5, providing a link to the origin. We already
know the shortest routes from nodes 2 and 3 to the origin. The minimum distances have been indicated in boxes
near these nodes. The path 3 → 5 involves the shortest distance. Thus, the distance between nodes 1 and 5 is 95
units (20 units between nodes 5 and 3 + 75 units between node 3 and the origin). Therefore, we select node 5
and enlarge the set from {1, 2, 3} to {1, 2, 3, 5}. The distance 95 is marked in a box by the side of node 5. The
following diagram is obtained at the end of Iteration No. 3.
40
95 Store house

2 4
40 40
6
35 65 70
1 40
5
Factory 100
3
20 95
75

ITERATION No. 3
Now 2 nodes remain, viz., nodes 4 and 6. Among them, node 4 is at a distance of 135 units from the
origin (95 units from node 4 to node 2 + 40 units from node 2 to the origin). Node 6 is at a distance of 135
units from the origin (40 + 95 units). Therefore, nodes 4 and 6 are at equal distances from the origin. If we
choose node 4, then travelling from node 4 to node 6 will involve an additional distance of 40 units. However,
node 6 is the ending node. Therefore, we select node 6 instead of node 4. Thus the set is enlarged from {1, 2, 3,
5} to {1, 2, 3, 5, 6}. The distance 135 is marked in a box by the side of node 6. Since we have got a path
beginning from the start node and terminating with the stop node, we see that the solution to the given problem
has been obtained. We have the following diagram at the end of Iteration No. 4.

40
95 Store house

2 4
40 40
6
35 65 70
1 40 135
5
Factory 100
3
20 95
75
ITERATION No. 4
MINIMUM DISTANCE
Referring to the above diagram, we see that the shortest route is provided by the path 1 → 2
→ 3 → 5 → 6 with a minimum distance of 135 units.

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QUESTIONS
1. Explain the shortest path problem.

2. Explain the algorithm for a shortest path problem

3. Find the shortest path of the following network:

30
3 5
40
40
1 30 50 30

45 6
25

35
2 4

4. Determine the shortest path of the following network:

2
16 5

7
9 7
1 4
15 6
8 4
25
3

LESSON 2
MINIMUM SPANNING TREE PROBLEM
LESSON OUTLINE
 The description of a minimum spanning tree problem.
 The identification of the minimum spanning tree.

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

After reading this lesson you should be able to

- understand a minimum spanning tree problem
- understand the algorithm for minimum spanning tree problem
- locate the minimum spanning tree

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- carry out numerical problems

Tree: A minimally connected network is called a tree. If there are n nodes in a network, it
will be a tree if the number of edges = n-1.

Minimum spanning tree algorithm

Problem : Given a connected network with weights assigned to the edges, it is required to
find out a tree whose nodes are the same as those of the network.
The weight assigned to an edge may be regarded as the distance between the two
nodes with which the edge is incident.
Algorithm:
The problem can be solved with the help of the following algorithm.
The procedure consists of selection of a node at each step.
Step 1: First select any node in the network. This can be done arbitrarily. We will start with
this node.
Step 2: Connect the selected node to the nearest node.
Step 3: Consider the nodes that are now connected. Consider the remaining nodes. If there is
no node remaining, then stop. On the other hand, if some nodes remain, among them find out
which one is nearest to the nodes that are already connected. Select this node and go to Step
2.
Thus the method involves the repeated application of Steps 2 and 3. Since the number
of nodes in the given network is finite, the process will end after a finite number of steps. The
algorithm will terminate with step 3.
How to break ties:
While applying the above algorithm, if some nodes remain in step 3 and if there is a tie in the
nearest node, then the tie can be broken arbitrarily.
As a consequence of tie, we may end up with more than one optimal solution.
Problem 1:
Determine the minimum spanning tree for the following network.
60 5
2
70
60 60 80
100 7

1 3
40 120 50

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80 50 60
30
90
Solution:
Step 1: First select node 1. (This is done arbitrarily)
Step 2: We have to connect node 1 to the nearest node. Nodes 2, 3 and 4 are adjacent to node
1. They are at distances of 60, 40 and 80 units from node 1. Minimum of {60, 40, 80} = 40.
Hence the shortest distance is 40. This corresponds to node 3. So we connect node 1 to node
3 by a thick line. This is Iteration No. 1.

60 5
2 70
60 60 80
100 7

1 3
40 120 50

8
80 50 60
30
90 6
4

Iteration No. 1
Step 3: Now the connected nodes are 1 and 3. The remaining nodes are 2, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8.
Among them, nodes 2 and 4 are connected to node 1. They are at distances of 60 and 80 from
node 1. Minimum of {60, 80} = 60. So the shortest distance is 60. Next, among the nodes 2,
4, 5, 6, 7 and 8, find out which nodes are connected to node 3. We find that all of them are
connected to node 3. They are at distances of 60, 50, 80, 60, 100 and 120 from node 3.
Minimum of {60, 50, 80, 60, 100, 120} = 50. Hence the shortest distance is 50.
Among these nodes, it is seen that node 4 is nearest to node 3.
Now we go to Step 2. We connect node 3 to node 4 by a thick line. This is Iteration
No.2.

60 5
2
70
60 60 80
100 7

1 3

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40 120 50

8
80 50 60
30

4
90 6

Iteration No. 2
Next go to step 3.
Now the connected nodes are 1, 3 and 4. The remaining nodes are 2, 5, 6, 7 and 8.
Node 2 is at a distance of 60 from node 1. Nodes 5, 6, 7 and 8 are not adjacent to node 1. All
of the nodes 2, 5, 6, 7 and 8 are adjacent to node 3. Among them, nodes 2 and 6 are nearer to
node 3, with equal distance of 60.
Node 6 is adjacent to node 4, at a distance of 90. Now there is a tie between nodes 2
and 6. The tie can be broken arbitrarily. So we select node 2. Connect node 3 to Node 2 by
a thick line. This is Iteration No. 3.

60 5
2
70
60 60 80
100 7

1 3
40 120 50

8
80 50 60
30

4
90 6

Iteration No. 3

We continue the above process.

Now nodes 1, 2, 3 and 4 are connected. The remaining nodes are 5, 6, 7 and 8. None
of them is adjacent to node 1. Node 5 is adjacent to node 2 at a distance of 60. Node 6 is at a
distance of 60 from node 3. Node 6 is at a distance of 90 from node 4. There is a tie between

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nodes 5 and 6. We select node 5. Connect node 2 to node 5 by a thick line. This is Iteration
No. 4.

60 5
2
70
60 60 80
100 7

1 3
40 120 50

8
80 50 60
30

4
90 6

Iteration No. 4

Now nodes 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 are connected. The remaining nodes are 6, 7 and 8. Among them,
node 6 is at the shortest distance of 60 from node 3. So, connect node 3 to node 6 by a thick
line. This is Iteration No. 5.

60 5
2
70
60 60 80
100 7

1 3
40 120 50

8
80 50 60
30

4
90 6

Iteration No. 5
Now nodes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 are connected. The remaining nodes are 7 and 8. Among them,
node 8 is at the shortest distance of 30 from node 6. Consequently we connect node 6 to node
8 by a thick line. This is Iteration No. 6.

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60 5
2
70
60 60 80
100 7

1 3
40 120 50

8
80 50 60
30

4
90 6

Iteration No. 6
Now nodes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 8 are connected. The remaining node is 7. It is at the shortest
distance of 50 from node 8. So, connect node 8 to node 7 by a thick line. This is Iteration
No.7.

60 5
2
70
60 60 80
100 7

1 3
40 120 50

8
80 50 60
30

4
90 6

Iteration No. 7
Now all the nodes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 are connected by seven thick lines. Since no node
is remaining, we have reached the stopping condition. Thus we obtain the following minimum
spanning tree for the given network.

60 5
2

60
7

1 3

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40 50

50 60
30

Minimum Spanning Tree

QUESTIONS
1. Explain the minimum spanning tree algorithm.
2. From the following network, find the minimum spanning tree.

75 6
2

80 55 90
100
1 3
70 40

25 60 5

4
30

3. Find the minimum spanning tree of the following network:

12
5
2 15
5 8
2 10 13 8
1 3 6

9 4 10
5 7

4
4

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LESSON 3
PROJECT NETWORK

LESSON OUTLINE
 The key concepts
 Construction of project network diagram

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

After reading this lesson you should be able to

- understand the definitions of important terms
- understand the development of project network diagram
- work out numerical problems

KEY CONCEPTS
Certain key concepts pertaining to a project network are described below:
1. Activity
An activity means a work. A project consists of several activities. An activity takes time. It
is represented by an arrow in a diagram of the network. For example, an activity in house
construction can be flooring. This is represented as follows:

flooring
Construction of a house involves various activities. Flooring is an activity in this project. We
can say that a project is completed only when all the activities in the project are completed.
2. Event
It is the beginning or the end of an activity. Events are represented by circles in a project
network diagram. The events in a network are called the nodes. Example:
Start Stop

Punching
Starting a punching machine is an activity. Stopping the punching machine is another activity.
3. Predecessor Event
The event just before another event is called the predecessor event.
4. Successor Event
The event just following another event is called the successor event.
Example: Consider the following.

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In this diagram, event 1 is predecessor for the event 2.

Event 2 is successor to event 1.
Event 2 is predecessor for the events 3, 4 and 5.
Event 4 is predecessor for the event 6.
Event 6 is successor to events 3, 4 and 5.
5. Network
A network is a series of related activities and events which result in an end product or service.
The activities shall follow a prescribed sequence. For example, while constructing a house,
laying the foundation should take place before the construction of walls. Fitting water tapes
will be done towards the completion of the construction. Such a sequence cannot be altered.
6. Dummy Activity
A dummy activity is an activity which does not consume any time. Sometimes, it may be
necessary to introduce a dummy activity in order to provide connectivity to a network or for
the preservation of the logical sequence of the nodes and edges.

7. Construction of a Project Network

A project network consists of a finite number of events and activities, by adhering to a certain
specified sequence. There shall be a start event and an end event (or stop event). All the
other events shall be between the start and the end events. The activities shall be marked by
directed arrows. An activity takes the project from one event to another event.
An event takes place at a point of time whereas an activity takes place from one point
of time to another point of time.

CONSTRUCTION OF PROJECT NETWORK DIAGRAMS

Problem 1:
Construct the network diagram for a project with the following activities:
Activity Name of Immediate

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EventEvent Activity Predecessor

Activity

12 A -
13 B -
14 C -
25 D A
36 E B
46 F C
56 G D

Solution:
The start event is node 1.
The activities A, B, C start from node 1 and none of them has a predecessor activity. A joins
nodes1 and 2; B joins nodes 1 and 3; C joins nodes 1 and 4. So we get the following:

A 2

1 3
B
C
4

This is a part of the network diagram that is being constructed.

Next, activity D has A as the predecessor activity. D joins nodes 2 and 5. So we get

1 A 2 D 5
Next, activity E has B as the predecessor activity. E joins nodes 3 and 6. So we get

1 B 3 E 6

Next, activity G has D as the predecessor activity. G joins nodes 5 and 6. Thus we obtain
D G
2 5 6

Since activities E, F, G terminate in node 6, we get

5
G

3 6
E

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6 is the end event.

Combining all the pieces together, the following network diagram is obtained for the given
project:
D
2 5

A G
Start event End event
1 B 3 E 6

C F
4

We validate the diagram by checking with the given data.

Problem 2:
Develop a network diagram for the project specified below:
Activity Immediate
Predecessor Activity

A -
B A
C, D B
E C
F D
G E, F

Solution:
Activity A has no predecessor activity. i.e., It is the first activity. Let us suppose that activity
A takes the project from event 1 to event 2. Then we have the following representation for A:

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A
1 2

For activity B, the predecessor activity is A. Let us suppose that B joins nodes 2 and 3. Thus
we get

1
A 2
B 3

Activities C and D have B as the predecessor activity. Therefore we obtain the following:
C
B 4

2 3
D

5
Activity E has D as the predecessor activity. So we get

C E
3 4 6

Activity F has D as the predecessor activity. So we get

D F
3 5 6l
”

Activity G has E and F as predecessor activities. This is possible only if nodes 6 and 6l are
one and the same. So, rename node 6l as node 6. Then we get

D F
3 5 6!

and
4
E

6 7
G

5
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G is the last activity.

Putting all the pieces together, we obtain the following diagram the project network:

Start event C 4 E End event

1 A 2 B 3 G
6 7

D F
5

The diagram is validated by referring to the given data.

Note: An important point may be observed for the above diagram. Consider the following
parts in the diagram

C E
3 4 6

and

D F
3 5 6l
”

We took nodes 6 and 6l as one and the same. Instead, we can retain them as different nodes.
Then, in order to provide connectivity to the network, we join nodes 6l and 6 by a dummy
activity. Then we arrive at the following diagram for the project network:

4
Start event C E 6

1 2 3 G
A B dummy
activity
7

D 5 F 6l End event
!

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QUESTIONS:

1. Explain the terms: event, predecessor event, successor event, activity, dummy
activity, network.
2. Construct the network diagram for the following project:
Activity Immediate
Predecessor Activity
A -
B -
C A
D B
E A
F C, D
G E
H E
I F, G
J H, I

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LESSON 4

CRITICAL PATH METHOD (CPM)

LESSON OUTLINE
 The concepts of critical path and critical activities
 Location of the critical path
 Evaluation of the project completion time

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

After reading this lesson you should be able to

- understand the definitions of critical path and critical activities
- identify critical path and critical activities
- determine the project completion time

INTRODUCTION
The critical path method (CPM) aims at the determination of the time to complete a project
and the important activities on which a manager shall focus attention.

ASSUMPTION FOR CPM

In CPM, it is assumed that precise time estimate is available for each activity.

PROJECT COMPLETION TIME

From the start event to the end event, the time required to complete all the activities of the
project in the specified sequence is known as the project completion time.

PATH IN A PROJECT
A continuous sequence, consisting of nodes and activities alternatively, beginning with the
start event and stopping at the end event of a network is called a path in the network.

CRITICAL PATH AND CRTICAL ACTIVITIES

Consider all the paths in a project, beginning with the start event and stopping at the end
event. For each path, calculate the time of execution, by adding the time for the individual
activities in that path.

The path with the largest time is called the critical path and the activities along this
path are called the critical activities or bottleneck activities. The activities are called critical

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because they cannot be delayed. However, a non-critical activity may be delayed to a certain
extent. Any delay in a critical activity will delay the completion of the whole project.
However, a certain permissible delay in a non –critical activity will not delay the completion
of the whole project. It shall be noted that delay in a non-critical activity beyond a limit
would certainly delay the completion the whole project. Sometimes, there may be several
critical paths for a project. A project manager shall pay special attention to critical activities.

Problem 1:
The following details are available regarding a project:
Activity Predecessor Duration (Weeks)
Activity

A - 3
B A 5
C A 7
D B 10
E C 5
F D,E 4

Determine the critical path, the critical activities and the project completion time.
Solution:
First let us construct the network diagram for the given project. We mark the time estimates
along the arrows representing the activities. We obtain the following diagram:

Start event B 3 D End event

5 10
1 A 2
3 5 F 6
C 4
7 E
4 5

Consider the paths, beginning with the start node and stopping with the end node. There are
two such paths for the given project. They are as follows:
Path I

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A B D F
1 2 3 5 6
3 5 10 4

with a time of 3 + 5 + 10 + 4 = 22 weeks.

Path II

A C E F
1 2 4 5 6
3 7 5 4

with a time of 3 + 7 + 5 + 4 = 19 weeks.

Compare the times for the two paths. Maximum of {22,19} = 22. We see that path I has the
maximum time of 22 weeks. Therefore, path I is the critical path. The critical activities are A,
B, D and F. The project completion time is 22 weeks.
We notice that C and E are non- critical activities.
Time for path I - Time for path II = 22- 19 = 3 weeks.
Therefore, together the non- critical activities can be delayed upto a maximum of 3
weeks, without delaying the completion of the whole project.
Problem 2:
Find out the completion time and the critical activities for the following project:

D 5
2 20
A 8 G 8
B E H 11 K 6
1 6 8 10
3

10 16 I 14 L 5

C 7 J 9

F 7 10
4
25
Solution:
In all, we identify 4 paths, beginning with the start node of 1 and terminating at the end node
of 10. They are as follows:
Path I

A D G K
1 2 5 8 10

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8 20 8 6

Time for the path = 8 + 20 + 8 + 6 = 42 units of time.

Path II

B E H K
1 3 6 8 10
10 16 11 6

Time for the path = 10 + 16 + 11 + 6 = 43 units of time.

Path III

B E I L
1 3 6 9 10
10 16 14 5

Time for the path = 10 + 16 + 14 + 5 = 45 units of time.

Path IV

C F J L
1 4 7 9 10
7 25 10 5

Time for the path = 7 + 25 + 10 + 5 = 47 units of time.

Compare the times for the four paths. Maximum of {42, 43, 45, 47} = 47. We see that the
following path has the maximum time and so it is the critical path:
C F J L
1 4 7 9 10
7 25 10 5

The critical activities are C, F, J and L. The non-critical activities are A, B, D, E, G, H, I and
K. The project completion time is 47 units of time.
Problem 3:
Draw the network diagram and determine the critical path for the following project:
Activity Time estimate (Weeks)
1- 2 5
1- 3 6

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1- 4 3
2 -5 5
3 -6 7
3 -7 10
4 -7 4
5 -8 2
6 -8 5
7 -9 6
8 -9 4
Solution: We have the following network diagram for the project:

D 5
2 5
2 H
A
5
1 B 3 E 6 I 8 K
6 7 5 4
9

3 C F 10 J

6
7
4 G
4

Solution:
We assert that there are 4 paths, beginning with the start node of 1 and terminating at the end
node of 9. They are as follows:

Path I

A D H K
1 2 5 8 9
5 5 2 4

Time for the path = 5 + 5 + 2 + 4 = 16 weeks.

Path II

B E I K
1 3 6 8 9

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6 7 5 4

Time for the path = 6 + 7 + 5 + 4 = 22 weeks.

Path III

B F J
1 3 7 9
6 10 6

Time for the path = 6 + 10 + 6 = 16 weeks.

Path IV

C G J
1 4 7 9
3 4 6

Time for the path = 3 + 4 + 6 = 13 weeks.

Compare the times for the four paths. Maximum of {16, 22, 16, 13} = 22. We see that the
following path has the maximum time and so it is the critical path:

B E I K
1 3 6 8 9
6 7 5 4
The critical activities are B, E, I and K. The non-critical activities are A, C, D, F, G, H and J.
The project completion time is 22 weeks.

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QUESTIONS:

1. Explain the terms: critical path, critical activities.

2. The following are the time estimates and the precedence relationships of the activities
in a project network:

Activity IMMEDIATE time estimate

Predecessor (weeks)
Activity
A - 4
B - 7
C - 3
D A 6
E B 4
F B 7
G C 6
H E 10
I D 3
J F, G 4
K H, I 2

Draw the project network diagram. Determine the critical path and the project completion
time.

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LESSON 5

PERT

LESSON OUTLINE
 The concept of PERT
 Estimates of the time of an activity
 Determination of critical path
 Probability estimates

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

After reading this lesson you should be able to

- understand the importance of PERT
- locate the critical path
- determine the project completion time
- find out the probability of completion of a project before a stipulated time

INTRODUCTION
Programme Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is a tool that would help a project
manager in project planning and control. It would enable him in continuously monitoring a
project and taking corrective measures wherever necessary. This technique involves
statistical methods.

ASSUMPTIONS FOR PERT

Note that in CPM, the assumption is that precise time estimate is available for each activity in
a project. However, one finds most of the times that this is not practically possible.
In PERT, we assume that it is not possible to have precise time estimate for each
activity and instead, probabilistic estimates of time alone are possible. A multiple time
estimate approach is followed here. In probabilistic time estimate, the following 3 types of
estimate are possible:
1. Pessimistic time estimate ( t p )

2. Optimistic time estimate ( to )

3. Most likely time estimate ( tm )

The optimistic estimate of time is based on the assumption that an activity will not involve
any difficulty during execution and it can be completed within a short period. On the other
hand, a pessimistic estimate is made on the assumption that there would be unexpected

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problems during the execution of an activity and hence it would consume more time. The
most likely time estimate is made in between the optimistic and the pessimistic estimates of
time. Thus the three estimates of time have the relationship
to  tm  t p .

Practically speaking, neither the pessimistic nor the optimistic estimate may hold in
reality and it is the most likely time estimate that is expected to prevail in almost all cases.
Therefore, it is preferable to give more weight to the most likely time estimate.
We give a weight of 4 to most likely time estimate and a weight of 1 each to the
pessimistic and optimistic time estimates. We arrive at a time estimate ( te ) as the weighted

average of these estimates as follows:

to  4 tm  t p
te 
6
Since we have taken 6 units ( 1 for t p , 4 for tm and 1 for to ), we divide the sum by 6. With

this time estimate, we can determine the project completion time as applicable for CPM.
Since PERT involves the average of three estimates of time for each activity, this
method is very practical and the results from PERT will be have a reasonable amount of
reliability.
MEASURE OF CERTAINTY
The 3 estimates of time are such that
to  t m  t p .

Therefore the range for the time estimate is t p  to .

The time taken by an activity in a project network follows a distribution with a

standard deviation of one sixth of the range, approximately.
t p  to
i.e., The standard deviation =  
6
2
 t t 
and the variance =    p o 
2

 6 
The certainty of the time estimate of an activity can be analysed with the help of the
variance. The greater the variance, the more uncertainty in the time estimate of an activity.
Problem 1:
Two experts A and B examined an activity and arrived at the following time estimates.
Expert Time Estimate

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to tm tp

A 4 6 8
B 4 7 10

Determine which expert is more certain about his estimates of time:

Solution:
2
t t 
Variance (  ) in time estimates =  p o 
2

 6 
2
84 4
In the case of expert A, the variance =   
 6  9
2
 10  4 
As regards expert B, the variance =   1
 6 
So, the variance is less in the case of A. Hence, it is concluded that the expert A is more
certain about his estimates of time.
Determination of Project Completion Time in PERT
Problem 2:

Find out the time required to complete the following project and the critical activities:

Activity Predecessor Optimistic time Most likely time Pessimistic time

Activity estimate (to days) estimate (tm days) estimate (tp days)
A - 2 4 6
B A 3 6 9
C A 8 10 12
D B 9 12 15
E C 8 9 10
F D, E 16 21 26
G D, E 19 22 25
H F 2 5 8
I G 1 3 5
Solution:

From the three time estimates t p , tm and to , calculate te for each activity. We obtain the following table:

Activity Optimistic 4 x Most likely Pessimistic to+ 4tm+ tp Time estimate

time estimate time estimate time estimate to  4 tm  t p
(to) (tp) te 
6
A 2 16 6 24 4
B 3 24 9 36 6
C 8 40 12 60 10
D 9 48 15 72 12
E 8 36 10 54 9
F 16 84 26 126 21

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G 19 88 25 132 22
H 2 20 8 30 5
I 1 12 5 18 3

Using the single time estimates of the activities, we get the following network diagram for the project.

B 3 D F H6
6 12 21 5
A
1 4 2
C 10 E 5G I 8
9 22 3

4 7
Consider the paths, beginning with the start node and stopping with the end node. There are
four such paths for the given project. They are as follows:
Path I

A D B F H
1 3 2 5 6 8
4 6 12 21 5
Time for the path: 4+6+12+21+5 = 48 days.

Path II
A B D G I
1 2 3 5 7 8
4 6 12 6 3 6

Time for the path: 4+6+12+ 6+3 = 31 days.

Path III
A C E F H
1 4 6
4 2 10 9 215 5 8
3 7
Time for the path: 4+10+9+ 21+5 = 49 days.

Path IV
A C E G I
1 2 4 5 7 8
4 10 9 6 3 6

Time for the path: 4+10+9+ 6+3 = 32 days.

Compare the times for the four paths.

Maximum of {48, 31, 49, 32} = 49.
We see that Path III has the maximum time.
Therefore the critical path is Path III. i.e., 1  2  4  5  6  8.
The critical activities are A, C, E, F and H.
The non-critical activities are B, D, G and I.
Project time (Also called project length) = 49 days.

Problem 3:

Find out the time, variance and standard deviation of the project with the following time estimates in weeks:

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Activity Optimistic time Most likely time Pessimistic time

estimate (to) estimate (tm) estimate (tp)
1-2 3 6 9
1-6 2 5 8
2-3 6 12 18
2-4 4 5 6
3-5 8 11 14
4-5 3 7 11
6-7 3 9 15
5-8 2 4 6
7-8 8 16 18

Solution:

From the three time estimates t p , tm and to , calculate te for each activity. We obtain the following table:

Activity Optimistic 4 x Most likely Pessimistic to+ 4tm+ tp Time estimate

time estimate time estimate time estimate to  4 tm  t p
(to) (tp) te 
6
1-2 3 24 9 36 6
1-6 2 20 8 30 5
2-3 6 48 18 72 12
2-4 4 20 6 30 5
3-5 8 44 14 66 11
4-5 3 28 11 42 7
6-7 3 36 15 54 9
5-8 2 16 6 24 4
7-8 8 64 18 90 15

With the single time estimates of the activities, we get the following network diagram for the project.

C 3 F
12 11

2
D 5 G 5I
A 6 7
4
4
1 5 B H
8
E 15
9
6
Consider the paths, beginning with the start node and stopping with the end node. There are three such paths for
7
the given project. They are as follows:

Path I

A C F I
1 2 3 5 8

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6 12 11 4
Time for the path: 6+12+11+4 = 33 weeks.

Path II
A D G I
1 2 4 5 8
6 5 73 4
Time for the path: 6+5+7+ 4= 22 weeks.

Path III
B E H
1 6 9 7 8
5 15
3
Time for the path: 5+9+15 = 29 weeks.

Compare the times for the three paths.

Maximum of {33, 22, 29} = 33.
It is noticed that Path I has the maximum time.
Therefore the critical path is Path I. i.e., 1  2  3  5  8
The critical activities are A, C, F and I.
The non-critical activities are B, D, G and H.
Project time = 33 weeks.

Calculation of Standard Deviation and Variance for the Critical Activities:

Critical Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic Range Standard Variance
Activity time time time (tp - to ) deviation = 2
t t 
estimate estimate estimate t t 2  p o 
(to) (tm) (tp)  p o  6 
6
A: 12 3 6 9 6 1 1
C: 23 6 12 18 12 2 4
F: 35 8 11 14 6 1 1
I: 58 2 4 6 4 2/3 4/9

Variance of project time (Also called Variance of project length) =

Sum of the variances for the critical activities = 1+4+1+ 4/9 = 58/9 Weeks.
Standard deviation of project time = √Variance = √58/9 = 2.54 weeks.

Problem 4
A project consists of seven activities with the following time estimates. Find the probability that the project will
be completed in 30 weeks or less.

Activity Predecessor Optimistic time Most likely time Pessimistic time

Activity estimate (to days) estimate (tm days) estimate (tp days)
A - 2 5 8
B A 2 3 4
C A 6 8 10
D A 2 4 6
E B 2 6 10
F C 6 7 8
G D, E, F 6 8 10
Solution:

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From the three time estimates t p , tm and to , calculate te for each activity. The results are furnished in the
following table:

Activity Optimistic 4 x Most Pessimistic time to+ 4tm+ tp Time estimate

time estimate likely time estimate (tp) to  4 tm  t p
(to) estimate te 
6
A 2 20 8 30 5
B 2 12 4 18 3
C 6 32 10 48 8
D 2 16 6 24 4
E 2 24 10 36 6
F 6 28 8 42 7
G 6 32 10 48 8

With the single time estimates of the activities, the following network diagram is constructed for the project.

B 3 6 E

C 4F
8 7
A D G
5 4 8
1 2 5 6

Consider the paths, beginning with the start node and stopping with the end node. There are three such paths for
the given project. They are as follows:

Path I
A B E G
1 2 3 5 6
5 3 46 8 8

Time for the path: 5+3+6+8 = 22 weeks.

Path II
A C F G
1 2 4 5 6
5 8 47 8 8
Time for the path: 5+8+7+ 8 = 28 weeks.

Path III
A D G
1 2 5 6
5 4 84

Time for the path: 5+4+8 = 17 weeks.

Compare the times for the three paths.

Maximum of {22, 28, 17} = 28.
It is noticed that Path II has the maximum time.

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Therefore the critical path is Path II. i.e., 1  2  4  5  6.

The critical activities are A, C, F and G.
The non-critical activities are B, D and E.
Project time = 28 weeks.

Calculation of Standard Deviation and Variance for the Critical Activities:

Critical Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic Range Standard Variance

Activity time time time estimate (tp -to) deviation = 2
estimate estimate (tp ) t t 
t p  to   p o 
2
(to) (tm)   6 
6

A: 12 2 5 8 6 1 1
C: 24 6 8 10 2 4
3 9
4
F: 45 6 7 8 1 1
3 9
2
G: 56 6 8 10 2 4
4 3 9

Standard deviation of the critical path = √2 = 1.414

The standard normal variate is given by the formula

Given value of t  Expected value of t in the critical path

Z 
SD for the critical path

30  28
So we get Z  = 1.414
1.414
We refer to the Normal Probability Distribution Table.
Corresponding to Z = 1.414, we obtain the value of 0.4207
We get 0.5 + 0.4207 = 0. 9207
Therefore the required probability is 0.92
i.e., There is 92% chance that the project will be completed before 30 weeks. In other words, the chance that it
will be delayed beyond 30 weeks is 8%

QUESTIONS:
1. Explain how time of an activity is estimated in PERT.
2. Explain the measure of certainty in PERT.
3. The estimates of time in weeks of the activities of a project are as follows:

Activity Predecessor Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic

Activity estimate of time estimate of time estimate of time
A - 2 4 6
B A 8 11 20
C A 10 15 20
D B 12 18 24

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E C 8 13 24
F C 4 7 16
G D,F 14 18 28
H E 10 12 14
I G,H 7 10 19

Determine the critical activities and the project completion time.

4. Draw the network diagram for the following project. Determine the time, variance and standard deviation of
the project.:

Activity Predecessor Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic

Activity estimate of time estimate of time estimate of time
A - 12 14 22
B - 16 17 24
C A 14 15 16
D A 13 18 23
E B 16 18 20
F D,E 13 14 21
G C,F 6 8 10

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5. Consider the following project with the estimates of time in weeks:

Activity Predecessor Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic

Activity estimate of time estimate of time estimate of time
A - 2 4 6
B - 3 5 7
C A 5 6 13
D A 4 8 12
E B,C 5 6 13
F D,E 6 8 14

Find the probability that the project will be completed in 27 weeks.

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NORMAL DISTRIBUTION TABLE

Area Under Standard Normal Distribution

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
0.0 0.0000 0.0040 0.0080 0.0120 0.0160 0.0199 0.0239 0.0279 0.0319 0.0359
0.1 0.0398 0.0438 0.0478 0.0517 0.0557 0.0596 0.0636 0.0675 0.0714 0.0753
0.2 0.0793 0.0832 0.0871 0.0910 0.0948 0.0987 0.1026 0.1064 0.1103 0.1141
0.3 0.1179 0.1217 0.1255 0.1293 0.1331 0.1368 0.1406 0.1443 0.1480 0.1517
0.4 0.1554 0.1591 0.1628 0.1664 0.1700 0.1736 0.1772 0.1808 0.1844 0.1879
0.5 0.1915 0.1950 0.1985 0.2019 0.2054 0.2088 0.2123 0.2157 0.2190 0.2224
0.6 0.2257 0.2291 0.2324 0.2357 0.2389 0.2422 0.2454 0.2486 0.2517 0.2549
0.7 0.2580 0.2611 0.2642 0.2673 0.2704 0.2734 0.2764 0.2794 0.2823 0.2852
0.8 0.2881 0.2910 0.2939 0.2967 0.2995 0.3023 0.3051 0.3078 0.3106 0.3133
0.9 0.3159 0.3186 0.3212 0.3238 0.3264 0.3289 0.3315 0.3340 0.3365 0.3389
1.0 0.3413 0.3438 0.3461 0.3485 0.3508 0.3531 0.3554 0.3577 0.3599 0.3621
1.1 0.3643 0.3665 0.3686 0.3708 0.3729 0.3749 0.3770 0.3790 0.3810 0.3830
1.2 0.3849 0.3869 0.3888 0.3907 0.3925 0.3944 0.3962 0.3980 0.3997 0.4015
1.3 0.4032 0.4049 0.4066 0.4082 0.4099 0.4115 0.4131 0.4147 0.4162 0.4177
1.4 0.4192 0.4207 0.4222 0.4236 0.4251 0.4265 0.4279 0.4292 0.4306 0.4319
1.5 0.4332 0.4345 0.4357 0.4370 0.4382 0.4394 0.4406 0.4418 0.4429 0.4441
1.6 0.4452 0.4463 0.4474 0.4484 0.4495 0.4505 0.4515 0.4525 0.4535 0.4545
1.7 0.4554 0.4564 0.4573 0.4582 0.4591 0.4599 0.4608 0.4616 0.4625 0.4633
1.8 0.4641 0.4649 0.4656 0.4664 0.4671 0.4678 0.4686 0.4693 0.4699 0.4706
1.9 0.4713 0.4719 0.4726 0.4732 0.4738 0.4744 0.4750 0.4756 0.4761 0.4767
2.0 0.4772 0.4778 0.4783 0.4788 0.4793 0.4798 0.4803 0.4808 0.4812 0.4817
2.1 0.4821 0.4826 0.4830 0.4834 0.4838 0.4842 0.4846 0.4850 0.4854 0.4857
2.2 0.4861 0.4864 0.4868 0.4871 0.4875 0.4878 0.4881 0.4884 0.4887 0.4890
2.3 0.4893 0.4896 0.4898 0.4901 0.4904 0.4906 0.4909 0.4911 0.4913 0.4916
2.4 0.4918 0.4920 0.4922 0.4925 0.4927 0.4929 0.4931 0.4932 0.4934 0.4936
2.5 0.4938 0.4940 0.4941 0.4943 0.4945 0.4946 0.4948 0.4949 0.4951 0.4952
2.6 0.4953 0.4955 0.4956 0.4957 0.4959 0.4960 0.4961 0.4962 0.4963 0.4964
2.7 0.4965 0.4966 0.4967 0.4968 0.4969 0.4970 0.4971 0.4972 0.4973 0.4974
2.8 0.4974 0.4975 0.4976 0.4977 0.4977 0.4978 0.4979 0.4979 0.4980 0.4981
2.9 0.4981 0.4982 0.4982 0.4983 0.4984 0.4984 0.4985 0.4985 0.4986 0.4986
3.0 0.4987 0.4987 0.4987 0.4988 0.4988 0.4989 0.4989 0.4989 0.4990 0.4990

LESSON 6

EARLIEST AND LATEST TIMES

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LESSON OUTLINE
 The concepts of earliest and latest times
 The concept of slack
 Numerical problems

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

After reading this lesson you should be able to

- understand the concepts of earliest and latest times
- understand the concept of slack
- calculate the earliest and latest times
- find out the slacks
- identify the critical activities
- carry out numerical problems

INTRODUCTION

A project manager has the responsibility to see that a project is completed by the stipulated date, without delay.
Attention is focused on this aspect in what follows.

Key concepts

Certain key concepts are introduced below.

EARLIEST TIMES OF AN ACTIVITY

We can consider (i) Earliest Start Time of an activity and (ii) Earliest Finish Time of an activity.
Earliest Start Time of an activity is the earliest possible time of starting that activity on
the condition that all the other activities preceding to it were began at the earliest possible
times.

Earliest Finish Time of an activity is the earliest possible time of completing that activity. It is given by
the formula.
The Earliest Finish Time of an activity = The Earliest Start Time of the activity + The estimated
duration to carry out that activity.
LATEST TIMES OF AN ACTIVITY

We can consider (i) Latest Finish Time of an activity and (ii) Latest Start Time of an activity.
Latest Finish Time of an activity is the latest possible time of completing that activity
on the condition that all the other activities succeeding it are carried out as per the plan of the
management and without delaying the project beyond the stipulated time.

Latest Start Time of an activity is the latest possible time of beginning that activity. It is given by the
formula
Latest Start Time of an activity = The Latest Finish Time of the activity - The estimated
duration to carry out that activity.

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TOTAL FLOAT OF AN ACTIVITY

Float seeks to measure how much delay is acceptable. It sets up a control limit for delay.
The total float of an activity is the time by which that activity can be delayed without delaying the
whole project. It is given by the formula
Total Float of an Activity = Latest Finish Time of the activity - Earliest Finish Time of that activity.
It is also given by the formula
Total Float of an Activity = Latest Start Time of the activity - Earliest Start Time of that
activity.
Since a delay in a critical activity will delay the execution of the whole project, the total
float of a critical activity must be zero.

EXPECTED TIMES OF AN EVENT

An event occurs at a point of time. We can consider (i) Earliest Expected Time of Occurrence of an event and
(ii) Latest Allowable Time of Occurrence an event.
The Earliest Expected Time of Occurrence of an event is the earliest possible time of
expecting that event to happen on the condition that all the preceding activities have been
completed.

The Latest Allowable Time of Occurrence of an event is the latest possible time of
expecting that event to happen without delaying the project beyond the stipulated time.

PROCUDURE TO FIND THE EARLIEST EXPECTED TIME OF AN EVENT

Step 1. Take the Earliest Expected Time of Occurrence of the Start Event as zero.

Step 2. For an event other than the Start Event, find out all paths in the network which
connect the Start node with the node representing the event under consideration.
Step 3. In the “Forward Pass” (i.e., movement in the network from left to right), find out
the sum of the time durations of the activities in each path identified in Step 2.
Step 4. The path with the longest time in Step 3 gives the Earliest Expected Time of
Occurrence of the event

Working Rule for finding the earliest expected time of an event:

For an event under consideration, locate all the predecessor events and identify their earliest
expected times. With the earliest expected time of each event, add the time duration of the
activity connecting that event to the event under consideration. The maximum among all these
values gives the Earliest Expected Time of Occurrence of the event.

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PROCUDURE TO FIND THE LATEST ALLOWABLE TIME OF AN EVENT

We consider the “Backward Pass” (i.e., movement in the network from right to left).
The latest allowable time of occurrence of the End Node must be the time of completion
of the project. Therefore it shall be equal to the time of the critical path of the project.

Step 1. Identify the latest allowable time of occurrence of the End Node.

Step 2. For an event other than the End Event, find out all paths in the network which
connect the End node with the node representing the event under consideration.

Step 3. In the “Backward Pass” (i.e., movement in the network from right to left),
subtract the time durations of the activities along each such path.

Step 4. The Latest Allowable Time of Occurrence of the event is determined by the path
with the longest time in Step 3. In other words, the smallest value of time obtained in
Step 3 gives the Latest Allowable Time of Occurrence of the event.

Working Rule for finding the latest allowable time of an event:

For an event under consideration, locate all the successor events and identify their latest
allowable times. From the latest allowable time of each successor event, subtract the time
duration of the activity that begins with the event under consideration. The minimum among
all these values gives the Latest Allowable Time of Occurrence of the event.

SLACK OF AN EVENT

The allowable time gap for the occurrence of an event is known as the slack of that event. It is given by the
formula
Slack of an event = Latest Allowable Time of Occurrence of the event - Earliest Expected
Time of Occurrence of that event.
SLACK OF AN ACTIVITY

The slack of an activity is the float of the activity.

Problem 1:
The following details are available regarding a project:
Activity Predecessor Duration (Weeks)
Activity

A - 12

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B A 7
C A 11
D A 8
E A 6
F B 10
G C 9
H D, F 14
I E, G 13
J H, I 16
Determine the earliest and latest times, the total float for each activity, the critical activities and the project
completion time.

Solution:
With the given data, we construct the following network diagram for the project.

3 F
10
B 7 H
D 14
5
A 8 J

1 12 2 E 16 8
7
6 I

C 11 13
G
9 6

4 with the start node and stopping with the end node. There are
Consider the paths, beginning
four such paths for the given project. They are as follows:

Path I

A B F H J

1 2 3 5 7 1
12 7 10 14 16

Time of the path = 12 + 7 + 10 + 14 + 16 = 59 weeks.

Path II

A D H J

1 2 5 7 8

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12 8 14 16

Time of the path = 12 + 8 + 14 + 16 = 50 weeks.

Path III

A E I J

1 2 6 7 8
12 6 13 16

Time of the path = 12 + 6 + 13 + 16 = 47 weeks.

Path IV

A C G I J
1 2 4 6 7 8
12 11 9 13 16

Time of the path = 12 + 11 + 9 + 13 + 16 = 61 weeks.

Compare the times for the four paths. Maximum of {51, 50, 47, 61} = 61. We see that the maximum time of a
path is 61 weeks.

Forward pass:

Calculation of Earliest Expected Time of Occurrence of Events

Node Earliest Time of Occurrence of Node

1 0
2 Time for Node 1 + Time for Activity A = 0 + 12 = 12
3 Time for Node 2 + Time for Activity B = 12 + 7 = 19
4 Time for Node 2 + Time for Activity C = 12 + 11 = 23
5 Max {Time for Node 2 + Time for Activity D,
Time for Node 3 + Time for Activity F}
= Max {12 + 8, 19 + 10} = Max {20, 29} = 29
6 Max {Time for Node 2 + Time for Activity E,
Time for Node 4 + Time for Activity G}
= Max {12 + 6, 23 + 9} = Max {18, 32} = 32
7 Max {Time for Node 5 + Time for Activity H,
Time for Node 6 + Time for Activity I}
= Max {29 + 14, 32 + 13} = Max {43, 45} = 45
8 Time for Node 7 + Time for Activity J = 45 + 16 = 61

Using the above values, we obtain the Earliest Start Times of the activities as follows:

Activity Earliest Start Time

(Weeks)

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A 0
B 12
C 12
D 12
E 12
F 19
G 23
H 29
I 32
J 45

Backward pass:

Calculation of Latest Allowable Time of Occurrence of Events

Node Latest Allowable Time of Occurrence of Node

8 Maximum time of a path in the network = 61
7 Time for Node 8 - Time for Activity J = 61 -16 = 45
6 Time for Node 7 - Time for Activity I = 45 -13 = 32
5 Time for Node 7 - Time for Activity H = 45 -14 = 31
4 Time for Node 6 - Time for Activity G = 32 - 9 = 23
3 Time for Node 5 - Time for Activity F = 31- 10 = 21
2 Min {Time for Node 3 - Time for Activity B,
Time for Node 4 - Time for Activity C,
Time for Node 5 - Time for Activity D,
Time for Node 6 - Time for Activity E}
= Min {21 - 7, 23 - 11, 31 - 8, 32 - 6}
= Min {14, 12, 23, 26} = 12
1 Time for Node 2 - Time for Activity A = 12- 12 = 0

Using the above values, we obtain the Latest Finish Times of the activities as follows:

Activity Latest Finish Time

(Weeks)
J 61
I 45
H 45
G 32
F 31

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E 32
D 31
C 23
B 21
A 12

Calculation of Total Float for each activity:

Activity Duration Earliest Start Earliest Latest Latest Total Float = Latest
(Weeks) Time Finish Time Start Time Finish Finish Time - Earliest
Time Finish Time
A 12 0 12 0 12 0

B 7 12 19 14 21 2

C 11 12 23 12 23 0

D 8 12 20 23 31 11

E 6 12 18 26 32 14

F 10 19 29 21 31 2

G 9 23 32 23 32 0

H 14 29 43 31 45 2

I 13 32 45 32 45 0

J 16 45 61 45 61 0

The activities with total float = 0 are A, C, G, I and J. They are the critical activities.
Project completion time = 61 weeks.

Problem 2:

The following are the details of the activities in a project:

Activity Predecessor Duration (Weeks)
Activity

A - 15
B A 17
C A 21
D B 19
E B 22

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F C, D 18
G E, F 15

Calculate the earliest and latest times, the total float for each activity and the project completion time.

Solution:
The following network diagram is obtained for the given project.

3E
22
B
A 17 D 19 G

1 15 2 15 5 6

C 21 F 18

4
Consider the paths, beginning with the start node and stopping with the end node. There are
three such paths for the given project. They are as follows:

Path I
A B E G

1 2 3 5 6
15 17 22 15
Time of the path = 15 + 17 + 22 + 15 = 69 weeks.

Path II
A B D F G

1 2 3 4 5 6
15 17 19 18 15

Time of the path = 15 + 17 + 19 + 18 + 15 = 84 weeks.

Path III

A C F G
1 2 4 5 6
15 21 18 15

Time of the path = 15 + 21 + 18 + 15 = 69 weeks.

Compare the times for the three paths. Maximum of {69, 84, 69} = 84. We see that the maximum time of a path
is 84 weeks.

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Forward pass:

Calculation of Earliest Time of Occurrence of Events

Node Earliest Time of Occurrence of Node

1 0
2 Time for Node 1 + Time for Activity A = 0 + 15 = 15
3 Time for Node 2 + Time for Activity B = 15 + 17 = 32
4 Max {Time for Node 2 + Time for Activity C,
Time for Node 3 + Time for Activity D}
= Max {15 + 21, 32 + 19} = Max {36, 51} = 51
5 Max {Time for Node 3 + Time for Activity E,
Time for Node 4 + Time for Activity F}
= Max {32 + 22, 51 + 18} = Max {54, 69} = 69
6 Time for Node 5 + Time for Activity G = 69 + 15 = 84

Calculation of Earliest Time for Activities

Activity Earliest Start Time

(Weeks)
A 0
B 15
C 15
D 32
E 32
F 51
G 69

Backward pass:
Calculation of the Latest Allowable Time of Occurrence of Events

Node Latest Allowable Time of Occurrence of Node

6 Maximum time of a path in the network = 84
5 Time for Node 6 - Time for Activity G = 84 -15 = 69
4 Time for Node 5 - Time for Activity F = 69 - 18 = 51
3 Min {Time for Node 4 - Time for Activity D,
Time for Node 5 - Time for Activity E}
= Min {51 - 19, 69 - 22} = Min {32, 47} = 32
2 Min {Time for Node 3 - Time for Activity B,
Time for Node 4 - Time for Activity C}
= Min {32 - 17, 51 - 21} = Min {15, 30} = 15
1 Time for Node 2 - Time for Activity A = 15 - 15 = 0

Calculation of the Latest Finish Times of the activities

Activity Latest Finish Time (Weeks)
G 84

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F 69
E 69
D 51
C 51
B 32
A 15

Calculation of Total Float for each activity:

Activity Duration Earliest Start Earliest Latest Latest Total Float = Latest
(Weeks) Time Finish Time Start Time Finish Finish Time - Earliest
Time Finish Time
A 15 0 15 0 15 0

B 17 15 32 15 32 0

C 21 15 36 30 51 15

D 19 32 51 32 51 0

E 22 32 54 47 69 15

F 18 51 69 51 69 0

G 15 69 84 69 84 0

The activities with total float = 0 are A, B, D, F and G. They are the critical activities.
Project completion time = 84 weeks.

Problem 3:
Consider a project with the following details:

Name of Predecessor Duration

Activity Activity (Weeks)
A - 8
B A 13
C A 9
D A 12
E B 14
F B 8
G D 7
H C, F, G 12
I C, F, G 9
J E, H 10
K I, J 7

Determine the earliest and latest times, the total float for each activity, the critical activities, the slacks of the
events and the project completion time.

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Solution:

The following network diagram is got for the given project:

E
3 6
14
B 13 H 12
8 J 10
F
A C I K
9 9 7
1 8 2 5 7 8
D 12 G 7

4
Path I

A B E J K

1 2 3 6 7 8
8 13 14 10 7

Time of the path = 8 + 13 + 14 + 10 + 7 = 52 weeks.

Path II

A B F H J K
1 2 3 5 6 7 8
8 13 8 12 10 7

Time of the path = 8 + 13 + 8 + 12 + 10 + 7 = 58 weeks.

Path III

A B F I K

1 2 3 5 7 8
8 13 8 9 7

Time of the path = 8 + 13 + 8 + 9 + 7 = 45 weeks.

Path IV

A C H J K

1 2 5 6 7 8
8 9 12 10 5 7

Time of the path = 8 + 9 + 12 + 10 + 7 = 46 weeks.

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Path V

A C I K
1 2 5 7 8
8 9 59 7 6

Time of the path = 8 + 9 + 9 + 7 = 33 weeks.

Path VI

A D G H J K
1 2 4 5 6 7 8
8 12 7 12 10 7
Time of the path = 8 + 12 + 7 + 12 + 10 + 7 = 56 weeks.

Path VII

A D G I K

1 2 4 5 7 8
8 12 7 9 7

Time of the path = 8 + 12 + 7 + 9 + 7 = 43 weeks.

Compare the times for the three paths. Maximum of {52, 58, 45, 46, 33, 56, 43} = 58.
We see that the maximum time of a path is 58 weeks.

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Forward pass:

Calculation of Earliest Time of Occurrence of Events

Node Earliest Time of Occurrence of Node

1 0
2 Time for Node 1 + Time for Activity A = 0 + 8 = 8
3 Time for Node 2 + Time for Activity B = 8 + 13 = 21
4 Time for Node 2 + Time for Activity D = 8+ 12 = 20
5 Max {Time for Node 2 + Time for Activity C,
Time for Node 3 + Time for Activity F,
Time for Node 4 + Time for Activity G}
= Max { 8 + 9, 21 + 8 , 20 + 7 } = Max {17, 29, 27} = 29
6 Max {Time for Node 3 + Time for Activity E,
Time for Node 5 + Time for Activity H}
= Max {21 + 14 , 29 + 12} = Max {35, 41} = 41
7 Max {Time for Node 5 + Time for Activity I,
Time for Node 6 + Time for Activity J}
= Max {29 + 9, 41 + 10} = Max {38, 51} = 51
8 Time for Node 7 + Time for Activity J = 51+ 7 = 58

Earliest Start Times of the activities

Activity Earliest Start Time

(Weeks)
A 0
B 8
C 8
D 8
E 21
F 21
G 20
H 29
I 29
J 41
K 51

Backward pass:

Calculation of Latest Allowable Time of Occurrence of Events

Node Latest Allowable Time of Occurrence of Node

8 Maximum time of a path in the network = 58
7 Time for Node 8 - Time for Activity K = 58 -7 = 51
6 Time for Node 7 - Time for Activity J = 51 -10 = 41

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5 Min {Time for Node 6 - Time for Activity H,

Time for Node 7 - Time for Activity I}
= Min {41 - 12, 51 - 9} = Min {29, 42} = 29
4 Time for Node 5 - Time for Activity G = 29 - 7 = 22
3 Min {Time for Node 5 - Time for Activity F,
Time for Node 6 - Time for Activity E}
= Min {29 - 8, 41 - 14} = Min {21, 27} = 21
2 Min {Time for Node 3 - Time for Activity B,
Time for Node 4 - Time for Activity D,
Time for Node 5 - Time for Activity C}
= Min {21 - 13, 22 - 12, 29 - 9}
= Min {8, 10, 20} = 8
1 Time for Node 2 - Time for Activity A = 8 - 8 = 0

Latest Finish Times of the activities

Activity Latest Finish Time

(Weeks)
K 58
J 51
I 51
H 41
G 29
F 29
E 41
D 22
C 29
B 21
A 8

Calculation of Total Float for each activity:

Activity Duration Earliest Start Earliest Latest Latest Total Float = Latest
(Weeks) Time Finish Time Start Time Finish Finish Time - Earliest
Time Finish Time
A 8 0 8 0 8 0

B 13 8 21 8 21 0

C 9 8 17 20 29 12

D 12 8 20 10 22 2

E 14 21 35 27 41 6

F 8 21 29 21 29 0

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G 7 20 27 22 29 2

H 12 29 41 29 41 0

I 9 29 38 42 51 13

J 10 41 51 41 51 0

K 7 51 58 51 58 0

The activities with total float = 0 are A, B, F, H, J and K. They are the critical activities.
Project completion time = 58 weeks.

Calculation of slacks of the events

Slack of an event = Latest Allowable Time of Occurrence of the event - Earliest Expected
Time of Occurrence of that event.

Event Earliest Expected Time Latest Allowable Time Slack of the

(Node) of Occurrence of Event of Occurrence of Event Event
1 0 0 0
2 8 8 0
3 21 21 0
4 20 22 2
5 29 29 0
6 41 41 0
7 51 51 0
8 58 58 0

Interpretation:

On the basis of the slacks of the events, it is concluded that the occurrence of event 4 may be delayed upto a
maximum period of 2 weeks while no other event cannot be delayed.
QUESTIONS
1. Explain the terms: The earliest and latest times of the activities of a project.
2. Explain the procedure to find the earliest expected time of an event.
3. Explain the procedure to find the latest allowable time of an event.
4. What is meant by the slack of an activity? How will you determine it?
5. Consider the project with the following details:

activity Duration (weeks)

12 1
23 3

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24 7
34 5
35 8
45 4
56 1

Determine the earliest and the latest times of the activities. Calculate the total float for
each activity and the slacks of the events.

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LESSON 7

CRASHING OF A PROJECT
LESSON OUTLINE
 The idea of crashing of a project
 The criterion of selection of an activity for crashing
 Numerical problems

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

After reading this lesson you should be able to

- understand the concept of crashing of a project
- choose an activity for crashing
- work out numerical problems
THE MEANING OF CRASHING:
The process of shortening the time to complete a project is called crashing and is usually achieved by putting
into service additional labour or machines to one activity or more activities. Crashing involves more costs. A
project manager would like to speed up a project by spending as minimum extra cost as possible. Project
crashing seeks to minimize the extra cost for completion of a project before the stipulated time.
STEPS IN PROJECT CRASHING:
Assumption: It is assumed that there is a linear relationship between time and cost.
Let us consider project crashing by the critical path method. The following four-step
procedure is adopted.
Step 1: Find the critical path with the normal times and normal costs for the activities and
identify the critical activities.
Step 2: Find out the crash cost per unit time for each activity in the network. This is
calculated by means of the following formula.
Crash cos t Crash cos t  Normal cos t

Time period Normal time  Crash time

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Activity Cost

Crash time & Cost

Crash Cost

Normal Cost Normal time & Cost

Activity Time
Crash Time Normal Time

Step 3: Select an activity for crashing. The criteria for the selection is as follows:
Select the activity on the critical path with the smallest crash cost per unit time. Crash this
activity to the maximum units of time as may be permissible by the given data.
Crashing an activity requires extra amount to be spent. However, even if the company
is prepared to spend extra money, the activity time cannot be reduced beyond a certain limit in
view of several other factors.
In step 1, we have to note that reducing the time of on activity along the critical path
alone will reduce the completion time of a project. Because of this reason, we select an
activity along the critical path for crashing.
In step 3, we have to consider the following question:
If we want to reduce the project completion time by one unit, which critical activity
will involve the least additional cost?
On the basis of the least additional cost, a critical activity is chosen for crashing. If
there is a tie between two critical activities, the tie can be resolved arbitrarily.

Step 4: After crashing an activity, find out which is the critical path with the changed
conditions. Sometimes, a reduction in the time of an activity in the critical path may cause a
non-critical path to become critical. If the critical path with which we started is still the
longest path, then go to Step 3. Otherwise, determine the new critical path and then go to
Step 3.

Problem 1: A project has activities with the following normal and crash times and cost:

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Activity Predecessor Normal Time Crash Time Normal Cost Crash Cost
Activity (Weeks) (Weeks) (Rs.) (Rs.)
A - 4 3 8,000 9,000

B A 5 3 16,000 20,000

C A 4 3 12,000 13,000

D B 6 5 34,000 35,000

E C 6 4 42,000 44,000

F D 5 4 16,000 16,500

G E 7 4 66,000 72,000

H G 4 3 2,000 5,000

Determine a crashing scheme for the above project so that the total project time is reduced by 3 weeks.

Solution:

We have the following network diagram for the given project with normal costs:

E G
C 36 7 5 H 7
A 4 4 4 4 3

1 4 2 5
B 8
D F 5
5
6
4 6
4
Beginning from the Start Node and terminating with the End Node, there are two paths for the network as
detailed below:

Path I:

A B D F
1 2 5 7 8
4 5 6 5

The time for the path = 4 + 5 + 6 + 5 = 20 weeks.

Path II:

A C E G H
1 3 8
4 2 4 6 75 4 7

The time for the path = 4 + 4 + 6 + 7 + 4 = 25 weeks.

Maximum of {20, 25} = 25.

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Therefore Path II is the critical path and the critical activities are A, C, E, G and H. The non-critical activities are
B, D and F.

Given that the normal time of activity A is 4 weeks while its crash time is 3 weeks. Hence the time of
this activity can be reduced by one week if the management is prepared to spend an additional amount. However,
the time cannot be reduced by more than one week even if the management may be prepared to spend more
money. The normal cost of this activity is Rs. 8,000 whereas the crash cost is Rs. 9,000. From this, we see that
crashing of activity A by one week will cost the management an extra amount of Rs. 1,000. In a similar fashion,
we can work out the crash cost per unit time for the other activities also. The results are provided in the
following table.

Activity Normal Crash Normal Crash Cost Crash cost Normal Crash Cost
Time Time Cost - Time - per unit
Normal Crash time
Cost Time
A 4 3 8,000 9,000 1,000 1 1,000

B 5 3 16,000 20,000 4,000 2 2,000

C 4 3 12,000 13,000 1,000 1 1,000

D 6 5 34,000 35,000 1,000 1 1,000

E 6 4 42,000 44,000 2,000 2 1,000

F 5 4 16,000 16,500 500 1 500

G 7 4 66,000 72,000 6,000 1 6,000

H 4 3 2,000 5,000 3,000 1 3,000

A non-critical activity can be delayed without delaying the execution of the whole project. But, if a
critical activity is delayed, it will delay the whole project. Because of this reason, we have to select a critical
activity for crashing. Here we have to choose one of the activities A, C, E, G and H The crash cost per unit time
works out as follows:

Rs. 1,000 for A; Rs. 1,000 for C; Rs. 1,000 for E; Rs. 6,000 for G; Rs. 3,000 for H.

The maximum among them is Rs. 1,000. So we have to choose an activity with Rs.1,000 as the crash cost
per unit time. However, there is a tie among A, C and E. The tie can be resolved arbitrarily. Let us select A for
crashing. We reduce the time of A by one week by spending an extra amount of Rs. 1,000.
After this step, we have the following network with the revised times for the activities:

E G
C 36 7 5 H 7
A 4 4 4 4 3

1 3 2 5
B 8
D F 5
5
6
4 6
4
The revised time for Path I = 3 + 5 + 6 + 5 = 19 weeks.
The time for Path II = 3 + 4 + 6 + 7 + 4 = 24 weeks.
Maximum of {19, 24} = 24.

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Therefore Path II is the critical path and the critical activities are A, C, E, G and H. However, the time for A
cannot be reduced further. Therefore, we have to consider C, E, G and H for crashing. Among them, C and E
have the least crash cost per unit time. The tie between C and E can be resolved arbitrarily. Suppose we reduce
the time of C by one week with an extra cost of Rs. 1,000.
After this step, we have the following network with the revised times for the activities:

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E G
C 36 7 5 H 7
A 3 4 4 4 3

1 3 2 5
B 8
D F 5
5
6
4 6
4
The time for Path I = 3 + 5 + 6 + 5 = 19 weeks.
The time for Path II = 3 + 3 + 6 + 7 + 4 = 23 weeks.
Maximum of {19, 23} = 23.
Therefore Path II is the critical path and the critical activities are A, C, E, G and H. Now the time for A or C
cannot be reduced further. Therefore, we have to consider E, G and H for crashing. Among them, E has the least
crash cost per unit time. Hence we reduce the time of E by one week with an extra cost of Rs. 1,000.
By the given condition, we have to reduce the project time by 3 weeks. Since this has been accomplished, we
stop with this step.

Result: We have arrived at the following crashing scheme for the given project:
Reduce the time of A, C and E by one week each.
Project time after crashing is 22 weeks.
Extra amount required = 1,000 + 1,000 + 1,000 = Rs. 3,000.
Problem 2:
The management of a company is interested in crashing of the following project by spending an additional
amount not exceeding Rs. 2,000. Suggest how this can be accomplished.

Activity Predecessor Normal Time Crash Time Normal Cost Crash Cost
Activity (Weeks) (Weeks) (Rs.) (Rs.)

A - 7 6 15,000 18,000

B A 12 9 11,000 14,000

C A 22 21 18,500 19,000

D B 11 10 8,000 9,000

E C, D 6 5 4,000 4,500

Solution:

We have the following network diagram for the given project with normal costs:

3
B D 11
12
A C E
1 2 4 5
7 22 6

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There are two paths for this project as detailed below:

Path I:

A B D E

1 7 2 12 113 6 4 5

The time for the path = 7 + 12 + 11 + 6 = 36 weeks.

Path II:

A C E
1 2 4 5
7 22 6

The time for the path = 7 + 22 + 6 = 35 weeks.

Maximum of {36, 35} = 36.

Therefore Path I is the critical path and the critical activities are A, B, D and E. The non-critical activity is C.
The crash cost per unit time for the activities in the project are provided in the following table.

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Activity Normal Crash Normal Crash Cost Crash cost Normal Crash Cost
Time Time Cost - Time - per unit
Normal Crash time
Cost Time
A 7 6 15,000 18,000 3,000 1 3,000

B 12 9 11,000 14,000 3,000 3 1,000

C 22 21 18,500 19,000 500 1 500

D 11 10 8,000 9,000 1,000 1 1,000

E 6 5 4,000 4,500 500 1 500

We have to choose one of the activities A, B, D and E for crashing. The crash cost per unit time is as
follows:

Rs. 3,000 for A; Rs. 1,000 for B; Rs. 1,000 for D; Rs. 500 for E.

The least among them is Rs. 500. So we have to choose the activity E for crashing. We reduce the time of E by
one week by spending an extra amount of Rs. 500.

After this step, we have the following network with the revised times for the activities:

B D3 11
12
A C E
1 2 4 5
7 22 5

The revised time for Path I = 7 + 12 + 11 + 5 = 35 weeks.

The time for Path II = 7 + 22 + 5 = 34 weeks.

Maximum of {35, 34} = 35.

Therefore Path I is the critical path and the critical activities are A, B, D and E. The non-critical activity is C.
The time of E cannot be reduced further. So we cannot select it for crashing. Next B and have the smallest crash
cost per unit time. Let us select B for crashing. Let us reduce the time of E by one week at an extra cost of Rs.
1,000.
After this step, we have the following network with the revised times for the activities:

3
B D 11
11
A C E
1 2 4 5
7 22 5

The revised time for Path I = 7 + 11 + 11 + 5 = 34 weeks.

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The time for Path II = 7 + 22 + 5 = 34 weeks.

Maximum of {34, 34} = 34.

Since both paths have equal times, both are critical paths. So, we can choose an activity for crashing from either
of them depending on the least crash cost per unit time. In path I, the activities are A, B, D and E. In path II, the
activities are A, C and E.
The crash cost per unit time is the least for activity C. So we select C for crashing. Reduce the time of C by one
week at an extra cost of Rs. 500.
By the given condition, the extra amount cannot exceed Rs. 2,000. Since this state has been met, we stop with
this step.

Result: The following crashing scheme is suggested for the given project:
Reduce the time of E, B and C by one week each.
Project time after crashing is 33 weeks.
Extra amount required = 500 + 1,000 + 500 = Rs. 2,000.

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Problem 3:
The manager of a company wants to apply crashing for the following project by spending an additional amount
not exceeding Rs. 2,000. Offer your suggestion to the manager.

Activity Predecessor Normal Time Crash Time Normal Cost Crash Cost
Activity (Weeks) (Weeks) (Rs.) (Rs.)
A - 20 19 8,000 10,000

B - 15 14 16,000 19,000

C A 22 20 13,000 14,000

D A 17 15 7,500 9,000

E B 19 18 4,000 5,000

F C 28 27 3,000 4,000

G D, E 25 24 12,000 13,000

Solution:
We have the following network diagram for the given project with normal costs:

C
3 5
A 22 28
20 F
1 17
D
15 7
B E G 25

19
2 4
There are three paths for this project as detailed below:

Path I:
A C F
1 20 222 4 6
28

The time for the path = 20 + 22 + 28= 70 weeks.

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Path II:

A D G
1 2 5 6
20 17 25

The time for the path = 20 + 17 + 25= 62 weeks.

Path III:

B E G
1 3 5 6
15 19 25

The time for the path = 15+19 +25 = 69 weeks.

Maximum of {70, 62, 69} = 70.
Therefore Path I is the critical path and the critical activities are A, C and F. The non-critical activities are B, D,
E and G.
The crash cost per unit time for the activities in the project are provided in the following table
Activity Normal Crash Normal Crash Cost Crash cost Normal Crash Cost
Time Time Cost - Time - per unit
Normal Crash time
Cost Time
A 20 19 8,000 10,000 2,000 1 2,000

B 15 14 16,000 19,000 3,000 1 3,000

C 22 20 13,000 14,000 1,000 2 500

D 17 15 7,500 9,000 1,500 2 750

E 19 18 4,000 5,000 1,000 1 1,000

F 28 27 3,000 4,000 1,000 1 1,000

G 25 24 12,000 13,000 1,000 1 1,000

We have to choose one of the activities A, C and F for crashing. The crash cost per unit time is as
follows:

Rs. 2,000 for A; Rs. 500 for C; Rs. 1,000 for F.

The least among them is Rs. 500. So we have to choose the activity C for crashing. We reduce the time of C by
one week by spending an extra amount of Rs. 500.

After this step, we have the following network with the revised times for the activities:

C
3 5
A 21 28
20 F
1 17
D
15 7
B E G 25

19
2 4

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The revised time for Path I = 20 + 21 + 28= 69 weeks.

The time for Path II = 20 + 17 + 25= 62 weeks.

The time for Path III = 15+19 +25 = 69 weeks.

Maximum of {69, 62, 69} = 69.

Since paths I and III have equal times, both are critical paths. So, we can choose an activity for crashing from
either of them depending on the least crash cost per unit time.
In path I, the activities are A, C and F. In path III, the activities are B, E and G.
The crash cost per unit time is the least for activity C. So we select C for crashing. Reduce the time of C by one
week at an extra cost of Rs. 500.
After this step, we have the following network with the revised times for the activities:
C
3 5
A 20 28
20 F
1 17
D
15 7
B E G 25

19
2 4
The revised time for Path I = 20 + 20 + 28= 68 weeks.
The time for Path II = 20 + 17 + 25= 62 weeks.

The time for Path III = 15+19 +25 = 69 weeks.

Maximum of {68, 62, 69} = 69.

Therefore path III is the critical activities. Hence we have to select an activity from Path III for crashing. We see
that the crash cost per unit time is as follows:

Rs. 3,000 for B; Rs. 1,000 for E; Rs. 1,000 for G.

The least among them is Rs. 1,000. So we can select either E or G for crashing. Let us select E for crashing. We
reduce the time of E by one week by spending an extra amount of Rs. 1,000.
By the given condition, the extra amount cannot exceed Rs. 2,000. Since this condition has been reached, we
stop with this step.

Result: The following crashing scheme is suggested for the given project:
Reduce the time of C by 2 weeks and that of E by one week.
Project time after crashing is 67 weeks.
Extra amount required = 2 x 500 + 1,000 = Rs. 2,000.

QUESTIONS

1. Explain the concept of crashing of a project.

2. Explain the criterion for selection of an activity for crashing.

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