Probability
Probability deals with events and quantifies the likelihood of occurring an event.
Its value ranges from 0 to 1. Higher probabilities indicates a greater chance of the
event happening. It is mainly a ratio favorable outcomes to total outcomes.
For example, when we toss a coin, either we get Head OR Tail, only two possible
outcomes are possible (H, T). But when two coins are tossed then there will be four
possible outcomes, i.e {(H, H), (H, T), (T, H), (T, T)}.
The probability formula is defined as the possibility of an event to happen is equal
to the ratio of the number of favourable outcomes and the total number of
outcomes.
Probability of event to happen P(E) = Number of favourable outcomes/Total
Number of outcomes
Sometimes students get mistaken for “favourable outcome” with “desirable
outcome”. This is the basic formula. But there are some more formulas for
different situations or events.
Applications of Probability
Probability has a wide variety of applications in real life. Some of the common
applications which we see in our everyday life while checking the results of the
following events:
Choosing a card from the deck of cards
Flipping a coin
Throwing a dice in the air
Pulling a red ball out of a bucket of red and white balls
Winning a lucky draw
Other Major Applications of Probability
It is used for risk assessment and modelling in various industries
Weather forecasting or prediction of weather changes
Probability of a team winning in a sport based on players and strength of
team
In the share market, chances of getting the hike of share prices
Problems and Solutions on Probability
Question 1: Find the probability of ‘getting 3 on rolling a die’.
Solution:
Sample Space = S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Total number of outcomes = n(S) = 6
Let A be the event of getting 3.
Number of favourable outcomes = n(A) = 1
i.e. A = {3}
Probability, P(A) = n(A)/n(S) = 1/6
Hence, P(getting 3 on rolling a die) = 1/6
Question 2: Draw a random card from a pack of cards. What is the
probability that the card drawn is a face card?
Solution:
A standard deck has 52 cards.
Total number of outcomes = n(S) = 52
Let E be the event of drawing a face card.
Number of favourable events = n(E) = 4 x 3 = 12 (considered Jack, Queen and
King only)
Probability, P = Number of Favourable Outcomes/Total Number of Outcomes
P(E) = n(E)/n(S)
= 12/52
= 3/13
P(the card drawn is a face card) = 3/13
Question 3: A vessel contains 4 blue balls, 5 red balls and 11 white balls. If
three balls are drawn from the vessel at random, what is the probability that
the first ball is red, the second ball is blue, and the third ball is white?
Solution:
Given,
The probability to get the first ball is red or the first event is 5/20.
Since we have drawn a ball for the first event to occur, then the number of
possibilities left for the second event to occur is 20 – 1 = 19.
Hence, the probability of getting the second ball as blue or the second event is
4/19.
Again with the first and second event occurring, the number of possibilities left for
the third event to occur is 19 – 1 = 18.
And the probability of the third ball is white or the third event is 11/18.
Therefore, the probability is 5/20 x 4/19 x 11/18 = 44/1368 = 0.032.
Or we can express it as: P = 3.2%.
Question 4: Two dice are rolled, find the probability that the sum is:
1. equal to 1
2. equal to 4
3. less than 13
Solution:
To find the probability that the sum is equal to 1 we have to first determine the
sample space S of two dice as shown below.
S = { (1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6)
(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6)
(3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6)
(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4),(4,5),(4,6)
(5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6)
(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6) }
So, n(S) = 36
1) Let E be the event “sum equal to 1”. Since, there are no outcomes which where
a sum is equal to 1, hence,
P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 0 / 36 = 0
2) Let A be the event of getting the sum of numbers on dice equal to 4.
Three possible outcomes give a sum equal to 4 they are:
A = {(1,3),(2,2),(3,1)}
n(A) = 3
Hence, P(A) = n(A) / n(S) = 3 / 36 = 1 / 12
3) Let B be the event of getting the sum of numbers on dice is less than 13.
From the sample space, we can see all possible outcomes for the event B, which
gives a sum less than B. Like:
(1,1) or (1,6) or (2,6) or (6,6).
So you can see the limit of an event to occur is when both dies have number 6, i.e.
(6,6).
Thus, n(B) = 36
Hence,
P(B) = n(B) / n(S) = 36 / 36 = 1