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Flood Risk and Development in Ljubno

The document presents a comprehensive analysis of the municipality of Ljubno, focusing on flood risks and spatial planning for flood protection. It includes thematic maps detailing land use, flood-prone areas, and demographic data, highlighting that approximately 40% of the population lives in flood-risk zones. The author proposes a development plan that expands the town while considering flood risks and protected areas.

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Cesar Retamal
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
10 views19 pages

Flood Risk and Development in Ljubno

The document presents a comprehensive analysis of the municipality of Ljubno, focusing on flood risks and spatial planning for flood protection. It includes thematic maps detailing land use, flood-prone areas, and demographic data, highlighting that approximately 40% of the population lives in flood-risk zones. The author proposes a development plan that expands the town while considering flood risks and protected areas.

Uploaded by

Cesar Retamal
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

University of Ljubljana

Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering

Spatial Planning for Flood Protection

Tutorials - Final project

Author: _____

Instructor: Jana Breznik

2024
Introduction
In the following paper I present 11 thematic maps of municipality of Ljubno with descriptions,
demographic situation in the municipality and it’s main town Ljubno ob Savinji as well as
propose a plan for development. First maps give more of a overview of the municipality by
showing the general layout, actual and planned land use. Then I delve more into the topic of
floods. There are three flood themed maps for the whole municipality which show what kind
of land use is at risk of being flooded, how many buildings are in flood-prone areas and how
many people live in these kind of areas. Final five maps focus on the main town Ljubno ob
Savinji. These give information about buildings in flood zones by year of construction, land
that is planned to build on and restrictions to keep in mind when developing the town. Finally,
I suggest areas for development as well as areas to extract from built land.

Map 1: Overview of Ljubno

Municipality of Ljubno is a hilly area in the Savinjska region. It is located in the northern part
of Slovenia, in the Upper Savinja Valley. Area of the municipality is 79 km2. (SURS) Through
municipality of Ljubno flows the upper course of Savinja river. Savinja originates from the
Kamnik-Savinja Alps and is 102 km long. Savinja river has significant fluctuations in flow rate
and is prone to flooding. In the past Savinja was used as a log diving route but nowadays it is
popular among fishermen and water sports enthusiasts. (Visit Savinjska) In addition to river
Savinja, there is also river Ljubnica in Ljubno which is a tributary of Savinja. The largest
settlement and the center is Ljubno ob Savinji. Other smaller settlements in the municipality
include Juvanje, Meliše, Okonina, Planina, Primož pri Ljubnem, Radmirje, Savina and Ter.
There are no highways or railways going through Ljubno, only regional and local roads.

Map 2. Actual Land Use of Ljubno

Municipality of Ljubno is dominantly covered with forest (76,2%). Forest areas are mostly in
mountains. Second largest land use group is agricultural land with a share of 20,4%. Biggest
agricultural land areas are located in the Savinja Valley where land is more flat and elevations
are lower. There is some agricultural land scattered all over Ljubno. It can be found in valleys
and around built up areas. Built land takes up only 2,8% of Ljubno’s territory. The majority of
built land is in the Savinja Valley. Water coveres 0,6% of the municipality’s area. Watercourses
are the main type of waterbodies and they are situated in valleys. There can also be found small
areas of other lands.

Map 3. Planned Land Use of Ljubno

Planned land use doesn’t significantly differ from actual land use in Ljubno. According to
planned land use there should be 76,2% of forest land, 20% of agricultural land, 2,8% of built
land, 0,8% of water and 0,2% of other lands. Planned land use shows slightly more other lands,
water, built and forest land but less agriculture land compared to actual land use.

Map 4: Planned Land Use in Flood Areas in Ljubno

On the map there are zoomed in two flood areas of the municipality. The first map for each area
shows the flood risk which can be high, medium, small or residual and there is also marked the
scope of flood-prone area, as well as areas that can be flooded outside of the scope of flood
area. The second map for each flood area shows what kind of land use is planned on the flood-
prone areas. The map that includes the whole municipality indicates the extent of each zoomed
in flood area. By hectares, agricultural land would be flooded the most (76 ha). However, the
share of flooded area would be highest for built land where almost 17% could be flooded. Only
negligible amount of forest might be flooded. Due to Ljubno being in a hilly area, most of the
municipality would be unaffected by the floods. Only 1,8% of the municipality’s territory is
prone to flooding.

Map 5: Buildings Affected by Floods

Maps show buildings by use that are built in the flood-prone area. Quite a lot of buildings can
be flooded in the event of a flood because many settlements are located by the river. In total
there are 2461 buildings in Ljubno out of which 464 are in flood risk area. There are 127
buildings (5,2%) in high and medium flood risk hazard area which includes 68 non-residental,
53 residental and 6 buildings without data. Even higher number of buildings are located in the
small and residual flood risk hazard area. In total 329 buildings (13,4%) are built in that zone
which includes 176 non-residental, 130 residental and 23 buildings without data. Also, 8
buildings are located in the flood warning area.
Map 6: People Affected by Floods

Maps show how many people live on 1 hectare areas in flood zones. In total there are 2565
inhabitants in Ljubno. As many as 1040 people which accounts for 40,5% live in flood risk
areas. That is a huge percentage of inhabitants at risk because a lot of people live close to the
river. Rest of the 1525 people are safe during a flood event.

Map 7: Buildings Affected by Floods by Year of Construction in Ljubno ob Savinji Town

The map is zoomed into the biggest settlement of the municipality which is Ljubno ob Savinji
town. Map shows the year of construction of buildings in the area and which of these are at risk
of being flooded. In the town extent there are 48 buildings in high and medium flood risk hazard
area and 130 buildings in small and residual flood risk hazard area. More buildings were
constructed in risky areas during the period of after World War II until the independence of
Slovenia.

Map 8: Undeveloped Built Land in Ljubno ob Savinji Town

The map shows undeveloped built land areas in Ljubno ob Savinji town. These areas are found
by comparing actual and planned land use. Most of the town is already developed (60,9%). Rest
of it (39,1%) is undeveloped and should become built-up land according to planned land use.

Map 9: Restrictions and Protected Areas of Ljubno ob Savinji Town

There are many restrictions and protected areas in Ljubno ob Savinji town to take into
consideration when developing the town. There are some protected areas and natural features
along the river. Significant proportion of the town is a cultural heritage area. Due to mountains
being in close proximity there is a danger of avalanches in the northern part of the town. There
are also some areas which are great for agriculture.

Map 10: Draft Proposal for the Development of Ljubno ob Savinji Town

The map shows possible areas of future development as well as proposed extractions of built
land in Ljubno ob Savinji town. The existing built land area is 81,03 ha. Considering the
population and ageing index I propose to expand the town by 10%. I have chosen three areas
that are suitable for developing into built land. Total area of these is 7,94 ha which accounts for
nearly 10%. I have also suggested to extract some of the built land. Total extractions area is
8,31 ha and the percentage is slightly over 10% of current built land.

Map 11: Draft Proposal for the Development of Ljubno ob Savinji Town with Restrictions
and Protected Areas

The map shows future development and extractions areas with restrictions and protected areas
to consider when developing the town. The southwestern area for proposed development is
situated away from all kinds of danger and protected areas. In addition, the land is quite flat in
that area, making it ideal for building on. The other two areas for development are located on
best agricultural land which might be problematic and not make some stakeholders happy but
the town has a lot of limitations for developing. Most flat land is good for agriculture or has a
risk of floods. The terrain further from the rivers has too steep of a slope making it unreasonable
to build on, as well as there’s a threat of avalanches. The four areas of proposed extractions are
all in flood prone locations. Therefore I suggest not developing them into built land as these
areas are still mostly undeveloped according to map 8.

Demography
Population in the municipality of Ljubno has been rather stable in the last 10 years with slight
fluctuations (Graph 1). There has been a small decrease in that period of approximately 100
people. In 2015 there were 2601 people and in 2024 it had decreased to 2512 people. Around
40% of municipality’s inhabitants live in the biggest settlement Ljubno ob Savinji. The
population change pattern in the main town is similar to the whole municipality. The number
of inhabitants in Ljubno ob Savinji has also been quite stable with 1055 people in 2015 and
1016 people in 2024. The year with the largest population was 2021 which can be accounted to
the influence of COVID-19 when people moved back to rural areas but this trend didn’t
continue.

The ageing index of the municipality of Ljubno and Ljubno ob Savinji town has had some
fluctuations during the last 10 years (Graph 2). The index value for the municipality is lower
than the town’s, meaning that the inhabitants of Ljubno ob Savinji are on average older. The
current year shows the highest ageing index for the last 10 years for both municipality as well
as town. The municipality’s ageing index has been around 120 and right now is 128. The index
for Ljubno ob Savinji used to be around 140 but now has increased to 168.

Population
3000
2500
2000
People

1500
1000
500
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Year

Ljubno Ljubno ob Savinji

Graph 1. Population of municipality of Ljubno and Ljubno ob Savinji town. (SiStat, 2024)

Ageing index
180,0
160,0
140,0
120,0
Index

100,0
80,0
60,0
40,0
20,0
0,0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Year

Ljubno Ljubno ob Savinji

Graph 2. Ageing index of municipality of Ljubno and Ljubno ob Savinji town. (SiStat, 2024)
Conclusion
Municipality of Ljubno has a problem with floods because river Savinja flows through it which
can easily be flooded. Even though only 1,8% of municipality’s territory is at risk of being
flooded, approximately 40% of inhabitants live in flood-prone areas and 19% of buildings are
located there. That can be explained by the fact that many settlements, including the main town
Ljubno ob Savinji, are built in the valley in river’s close proximity due to the land being more
flat there.

In Ljubno ob Savinji there are too many buildings in flood risk areas. In recent years the number
of new buildings in these zones has gone down. Now, when there is more information about
how far water can reach in the event of a flood, spatial planners can take this into account when
developing the town. I propose to expand the town by 9,8% because the population has been
rather stable during the last 10 years. Future development areas are situated away from danger,
like avalanches and floods as well as protected areas. I also suggest to extract some built land
(10,26%) because these areas are by the river and have a risk of being flooded. In addition,
these areas are still mostly undeveloped and it would be unreasonable to build there.
±
Planina

Strmec
Konjski Vrh

Primož pri
Ljubnem

Savina Ljubno ob Ter


Savinji
Krnica

Dol-Suha

Juvanje

Radmirje Poljane

Florjan pri Okonina


Gornjem Gradu

Meliše Šentjanž
Grušovlje Varpolje Nizka

Homec Spodnje
Zgornje
Pobrežje
Sources: Esri, Airbus DS, USGS, NGA, NASA, CGIAR, N Robinson, NCEAS, NLS, OS, NMA, Geodatastyrelsen,
Lenart pri Pobrežje
Rijkswaterstaat, GSA, Geoland, FEMA, Intermap and the GIS user community
Gornjem
Gradu

Map 1: Overview of Ljubno 0 0,5 1 2


km
Settlements
Rivers
Roads
Regional roads
Local roads
Stagnant waters (lakes, ...)
Buildings
Municipality border
Sources: GURS, 2022
Author: ________
SPFP, October 2024
Erasmus
±

Sources: Esri, Airbus DS, USGS, NGA, NASA, CGIAR, N Robinson, NCEAS, NLS, OS, NMA, Geodatastyrelsen,
Rijkswaterstaat, GSA, Geoland, FEMA, Intermap and the GIS user community

Map 2: Actual Land Use of Ljubno 0 0,5 1 2


km
Actual land use group Actual land use - area (ha)
Actual land use group Area (ha)
Agricultural land
Agricultural land 1611,91
Built land Forest land 76,2% Forest land 6020,43
Forest land Agricultural land 20,4% Built land 222,92
Other lands Built land 2,8% Other lands 2,56
Water Water 0,6% Water 45,66
Municipality border Other lands 0,0%

Sources: MKGP, 2024; GURS, 2022


Author: ________
SPFP, October 2024
Erasmus
±

Sources: Esri, Airbus DS, USGS, NGA, NASA, CGIAR, N Robinson, NCEAS, NLS, OS, NMA, Geodatastyrelsen,
Rijkswaterstaat, GSA, Geoland, FEMA, Intermap and the GIS user community

Map 3: Planned Land Use of Ljubno 0 0,5 1 2


km
Planned land use group Planned land use - area (ha)
Agricultural land Planned land use group Area (ha)
Built land Forest land 76,2% Built land 223,48
Forest land Agricultural land 20,0% Agricultural land 1578,8
Other lands Built land 2,8% Forest land 6023,18
Water Water 60,6
Water 0,8%
Municipality border Other lands 17,45
Other lands 0,2%

Sources: MNVP, 2023; GURS, 2022


Author: ________
SPFP, October 2024
Erasmus
±

Sources: Esri, Airbus DS, USGS, NGA, NASA, CGIAR, N Robinson, Sources: Esri, Airbus DS, USGS, NGA, NASA, CGIAR, N Robinson,
NCEAS, NLS, OS, NMA, Geodatastyrelsen, Rijkswaterstaat, GSA, NCEAS, NLS, OS, NMA, Geodatastyrelsen, Rijkswaterstaat, GSA,
Geoland, FEMA, Intermap and the GIS user community Geoland, FEMA, Intermap and the GIS user community

Sources: Esri, Airbus DS, USGS, NGA,


Sources: Esri, Airbus DS, USGS, NGA, NASA, Sources: Esri, Airbus DS, USGS, NGA, NASA, NASA, CGIAR, N Robinson, NCEAS,
CGIAR, N Robinson, NCEAS, NLS, OS, NMA, CGIAR, N Robinson, NCEAS, NLS, OS, NMA, NLS, OS, NMA, Geodatastyrelsen,
Geodatastyrelsen, Rijkswaterstaat, GSA, Geoland, Geodatastyrelsen, Rijkswaterstaat, GSA, Geoland, Rijkswaterstaat, GSA, Geoland, FEMA,
FEMA, Intermap and the GIS user community FEMA, Intermap and the GIS user community
0 1 2 4 Intermap and the GIS user community
km

Map 4: Planned Land Use in Flood Areas in Ljubno 0 0,5 1 2


km
Planned land use group Flood warning map
Agricultural land Frequent floods
Built land Rare floods PLU Group Area (ha) Flooded area (ha) Share of flooded area (%)
Forest land Very rare floods Built land 223,48 37,813 16,92
Water Municipality border Agricultural land 1578,805 76,483 4,84
Flood hazard classes Forest land 6023,185 17,172 0,29
Water 60,604 7,531 12,43
Scope of results
Other lands 17,45 0 0
High flood risk hazard SUM 7903,524 138,999 1,76
Medium flood risk hazard
Small flood risk hazard Sources: MNVP, 2023; GURS, 2022; DRSV 2023
Residual flood risk hazard Author: ________
SPFP, November 2024
Erasmus
±

Sources: Esri, Airbus DS, USGS, NGA,


NASA, CGIAR, N Robinson, NCEAS,
NLS, OS, NMA, Geodatastyrelsen,
Rijkswaterstaat, GSA, Geoland, FEMA,
Intermap and the GIS user
community

Sources: Esri, Airbus DS, USGS, NGA,


NASA, CGIAR, N Robinson, NCEAS,
Sources: Esri, Airbus DS, USGS, NGA, NASA, CGIAR, N Robinson, NLS, OS, NMA, Geodatastyrelsen,
NCEAS, NLS, OS, NMA, Geodatastyrelsen, Rijkswaterstaat, GSA, Rijkswaterstaat, GSA, Geoland, FEMA,
0 1 2 4
Geoland, FEMA, Intermap and the GIS user community Intermap and the GIS user
km community

Building_by_Use Total_No In_High_Med_Flood Percent_High_Med In_Min_Res_Flood Percent_Min_Res In_FWM Percent_FWM


Non-residental 1330 68 5,11 176 13,23 3 0,23
Residental 882 53 6,01 130 14,74 4 0,45
No data 249 6 2,41 23 9,24 1 0,4
SUM 2461 127 5,16 329 13,37 8 0,33

Map 5: Buildings Affected by Floods in Ljubno 0 0,5 1 2


km
Use of the building Flood warning map
Non-residental building Frequent floods
Residental building Rare floods
No data Very rare floods
Flood hazard classes Municipality border
Scope of results
High flood risk hazard
Medium flood risk hazard
Small flood risk hazard Sources: GURS, 2022; DRSV 2023
Residual flood risk hazard Author: ________
SPFP, November 2024
Erasmus
±

Sources: Esri, Airbus DS, USGS, NGA,


NASA, CGIAR, N Robinson, NCEAS,
NLS, OS, NMA, Geodatastyrelsen,
Rijkswaterstaat, GSA, Geoland, FEMA,
Intermap and the GIS user community

Sources: Esri, Airbus DS, USGS, NGA,


Sources: Esri, Airbus DS, USGS, NGA, NASA, CGIAR, N Robinson, NASA, CGIAR, N Robinson, NCEAS,
NCEAS, NLS, OS, NMA, Geodatastyrelsen, Rijkswaterstaat, GSA, NLS, OS, NMA, Geodatastyrelsen,
Geoland, FEMA, Intermap and the GIS user community 0 1 2 4 Rijkswaterstaat, GSA, Geoland, FEMA,
km Intermap and the GIS user community

Percentage of people affected by floods

Population Number Percent


People not affected by floods 59,5% People affected by floods 1040 40,55
People affected by floods 40,5% People not affected by floods 1525 59,45

0 0,5 1 2
Map 6: People Affected by Floods in Ljubno km
Number of people living on 1 ha Flood warning map
0-4 Frequent floods
5 - 11 Rare floods
12 - 23 Very rare floods
24 - 41 Municipality border
42 - 58
Flood hazard classes
Scope of results
High flood risk hazard
Sources: SURS, 2022; GURS, 2022; DRSV 2023
Medium flood risk hazard Author: ________
Small flood risk hazard SPFP, November 2024
Residual flood risk hazard Erasmus
±

Sources: Esri, Airbus DS, USGS, NGA, NASA, CGIAR, N Robinson, NCEAS, NLS, OS, NMA, Geodatastyrelsen,
Rijkswaterstaat, GSA, Geoland, FEMA, Intermap and the GIS user community

Map 7: Buildings Affected by Floods by Year of Construction in 0 175 350 700


m
Ljubno ob Savinji Town
Year of construction Flood warning map Building_by_year In_High_Med_flood In_Min_Res_Flood
No data Frequent floods Until 1900 3 12
Until 1900 Rare floods 1901-1945 9 15
Between 1901 and 1945 Very rare floods 1946-1970 17 36
Between 1946 and 1970 Planned land use group
1971-1990 11 31
Between 1971 and 1990 Built land
1991-2020 5 23
Between 1991 and 2020 Town extent
No data 3 13
Flood hazard classes
SUM 48 130
Scope of results
High flood risk hazard Sources: MNVP, 2023; GURS, 2022; DRSV, 2023
Medium flood risk hazard Author: ________
Small flood risk hazard SPFP, November 2024
Residual flood risk hazard Erasmus
±

Sources: Esri, Airbus DS, USGS, NGA, NASA, CGIAR, N Robinson, NCEAS, NLS, OS, NMA, Geodatastyrelsen,
Rijkswaterstaat, GSA, Geoland, FEMA, Intermap and the GIS user community

Map 8: Undeveloped Built Land in Ljubno ob Savinji Town 0 175 350 700
m

Buildings
Developed built areas Developed and undeveloped areas (ha)
Undeveloped built areas
Town extent
Developed areas 60,9%
Undeveloped areas 39,1%
Built up type Area Percentage
Developed areas 49,31 60,86
Undeveloped areas 31,72 39,14 Sources: MNVP, 2023; GURS, 2022; MKGP 2024
Author: ________
SPFP, November 2024
Erasmus
±

Sources: Esri, Airbus DS, USGS, NGA, NASA, CGIAR, N Robinson, NCEAS, NLS, OS, NMA, Geodatastyrelsen,
Rijkswaterstaat, GSA, Geoland, FEMA, Intermap and the GIS user community

Map 9: Restrictions and Protected Areas of Ljubno ob Savinji Town 0 175 350 700
m
Protected areas Flood hazard classes
Protected areas Scope of results
Cultural heritage High flood risk hazard
Natural features Medium flood risk hazard
Areas at risk of avalanches Small flood risk hazard
Best agricultural land Residual flood risk hazard
Buildings Town extent
Flood warning map Sources: MNVP, 2023; GURS, 2022;
Frequent floods MK, 2023; ARSO, 2023; DRSV, 2023
Rare floods Author: ________
Very rare floods SPFP, November 2024
Erasmus
±

Sources: Esri, Airbus DS, USGS, NGA, NASA, CGIAR, N Robinson, NCEAS, NLS, OS, NMA, Geodatastyrelsen,
Rijkswaterstaat, GSA, Geoland, FEMA, Intermap and the GIS user community

Map 10: Draft Proposal for the Development of Ljubno ob 0 175 350 700
m
Savinji Town
Areas of future development Existing built land: 81,03 ha
Proposed extractions Areas of future development: 7,94 ha
Buildings Expansion percentage: 9,8%
Built land Proposed extractions: 8,31 ha
Best agricultural land Extractions percentage: 10,26%

Sources: MNVP, 2023; GURS, 2022


Author: ________
SPFP, December 2024
Erasmus
±

Sources: Esri, Airbus DS, USGS, NGA, NASA, CGIAR, N Robinson, NCEAS, NLS, OS, NMA, Geodatastyrelsen,
Rijkswaterstaat, GSA, Geoland, FEMA, Intermap and the GIS user community

Map 11: Draft Proposal for the Development of Ljubno ob 0 175 350 700
m
Savinji Town with Restrictions and Protected Areas
Areas of future development Flood hazard classes
Proposed extractions Scope of results
Protected areas High flood risk hazard
Protected areas Medium flood risk hazard
Cultural heritage Small flood risk hazard
Natural features Residual flood risk hazard
Areas at risk of avalanches Flood warning map Sources: MNVP, 2023; GURS, 2022;
Best agricultural land Frequent floods MK, 2023; ARSO, 2023; DRSV, 2023
Buildings Rare floods Author: ________
Built land Very rare floods SPFP, December 2024
Erasmus
References:

ARSO (2023). Agencija Republike Slovenije za Okolje.

DRSV (2023). Direkcija Republike Slovenije za vode.

GURS (2022). Geodetska Uprava Republike Slovenije.

MK (2023). Ministrstvo za kulturo.

MKGP (2024). Ministrstvo za kmetijstvo, gozdarstvo in prehrano.

MNVP (2023). Ministrstvo za naravne vire in prostor.

SiStat (2024). Population - selected indicators, municipalities and settlements, Slovenia,


annually. [Link]

SURS. Municipality of Ljubno. [Link]

Visit Savinjska. Savinja River. [Link]

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