MODULE NO.

3
PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
 PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
The probability of an event 𝐴 denoted by 𝑃(𝐴) is defined as
the sum of the weights of all the sample points in 𝐴, where
0 ≤ 𝑃(𝐴) ≤ 1; 𝑃(∅) = 0; 𝑃(𝑆) = 1
T.1: If an experiment can result in any one of 𝑁 different equally
likely outcomes, and if exactly 𝑛 of these outcomes correspond to
event 𝐴, then the probability of event 𝐴 is

𝑛
𝑃 𝐴 =
𝑁
T.2: If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are any two events, then

𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
T.3: If 𝐴, 𝐵, and 𝐶 are any three events, then

𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵∪𝐶 =𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵 +𝑃 𝐶 −𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
−𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐶 − 𝑃 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)
T.4: If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are mutually exclusive, then

𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵
Similarly, if 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , 𝐴3 , . . . , 𝐴𝑛 are mutually exclusive events,
then
𝑃 𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2 ∪ 𝐴3 ∪ . . . ∪ 𝐴𝑛 = 𝑃 𝐴1 + 𝑃 𝐴2 + 𝑃 𝐴3 + . . . + 𝑃(𝐴𝑛 )
T.5: If 𝐴 and 𝐴′ are complementary events, then

𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐴′ = 1
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
The conditional probability of 𝐵 given 𝐴, denoted by 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴
is defined by
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃 𝐵𝐴 = ; 𝑃(𝐴) > 0
𝑃(𝐴)
Two events 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent if and only if
𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 = 𝑃 𝐵 and 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 = 𝑃(𝐴)
otherwise, 𝐴 and 𝐵 are dependent.
T.1: If in an experiment the events 𝐴 and 𝐵 can both occur, then
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 ∙𝑃 𝐵 𝐴
T.2: Two events 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent if and only if
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵)
T.3: If in an experiment, the events 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , 𝐴3 , . . . , 𝐴𝑘 can
occur, then
𝑃 𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐴3 ∩ . . . ∩ 𝐴𝑘 = 𝑃 𝐴1 ∙ 𝑃 𝐴2 𝐴1 ∙ 𝑃 𝐴3 𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ∙
. . .∙ 𝑃(𝐴𝑘 |𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ∩ . . . ∩ 𝐴𝑘−1 )
If the events 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , 𝐴3 , . . . , 𝐴𝑘 are independent, then
𝑃 𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐴3 ∩ . . . ∩ 𝐴𝑘 = 𝑃 𝐴1 ∙ 𝑃 𝐴2 ∙ 𝑃 𝐴3 ∙ . . . ∙ 𝑃(𝐴𝑘 )

BAYES’ THEOREM
Let 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , 𝐴3 , . . . , 𝐴𝑛 be a collection of 𝑛 mutually
exclusive and exhaustive events with 𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ) > 0 for 𝑖 = 1, 2, 3,
. . , 𝑛, then for any other event 𝐵 for which 𝑃(𝐵) > 0,
 𝑃(𝐴𝑘 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃 𝐴𝑘 𝐵 = 𝑛
σ𝑖=1 𝑃 𝐴𝑖 ∩ 𝐵
𝑃 𝐵 𝐴𝑘 ∙ 𝑃(𝐴𝑘 )
=
𝑃 𝐵 𝐴1 ∙ 𝑃 𝐴1 + 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴2 ∙ 𝑃 𝐴2 + . . . + 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴𝑛 ∙ 𝑃(𝐴𝑛 )
where 𝑘 = 1, 2, . . . , 𝑛.
Let 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , 𝐴3 , . . . , 𝐴𝑛 be mutually exclusive and exhaustive
events, then for any other event 𝐵, the law of total probability is
𝑃 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴1 ∙ 𝑃 𝐴1 + 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴2 ∙ 𝑃 𝐴2 + . . . + 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴𝑛 ∙ 𝑃(𝐴𝑛 )

EXAMPLES
1. Three coins are tossed simultaneously. Find the probability of
getting (a) exactly one head, (b) at least one head, and (c) at most one
head.
Solution:
a. determine 𝑃(exactly 1𝐻)
For 𝑃(exactly 1𝐻)
𝑛
𝑃 exactly 1𝐻 =
𝑁
where:

𝑁 = 𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇 = 8

𝑛 = 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻 = 3

Hence
3
𝑃 exactly 1𝐻 = ← 𝐴𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟
8
b. determine 𝑃(at least 1𝐻)
For 𝑃(at least 1𝐻)
𝑛
𝑃 at least 1𝐻 =
𝑁
where:
𝑛 = 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝐻 = 7
Hence
7
𝑃 at least 1𝐻 = ← 𝐴𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟
8
c. determine 𝑃(at most 1𝐻)
For 𝑃(at most 1𝐻)
𝑛
𝑃 at most 1𝐻 =
𝑁
where:
𝑛 = 𝑇𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝑇 = 4
Hence
4 1
𝑃 at most 1𝐻 = or ← 𝐴𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟
8 2

2. Two balls are drawn at random and without replacement from

an urn containing 4 red balls and 6 blue balls. Find the probability
that both balls are of the same color.
Solution:
determine 𝑃(2 balls of the same color)
For 𝑃(2 red balls)
 𝑛
𝑃 2 red balls =
𝑁
where::
𝑛 = 4C2 = 6
𝑁 = 10C2 = 45
Hence
6 2
𝑃 2 red balls = or
45 15
For 𝑃(2 blue balls)
𝑛
𝑃 2 blue balls =
𝑁
where:
 𝑛 = 6C2 = 15
𝑁 = 10C2 = 45
Hence
15 1
𝑃 2 blue balls = or
45 3
For 𝑃(2 balls of the same color)
𝑃 2 balls of the same color = 𝑃 2 red balls + 𝑃(2 blue balls)

2 1
= +
15 3

7
𝑃 2 balls of the same color = ← 𝐴𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟
15
3. If 5 cards are dealt at random from a standard deck of 52
cards, what is the probability that at least one is ace?
Solution:
determine 𝑃(𝐴′ ), probability that at least one is ace
Let:
𝐴 → the event that the hand has no ace
𝐴′ → the event that the hand has at least one ace
For 𝑃(𝐴)
𝑛
𝑃 𝐴 =
𝑁
where:
 𝑛 = 48C5 = 1,712,304
𝑁 = 52C5 = 2,598,960
Hence
1,712,304
𝑃 𝐴 = = 0.6588
2,598,960
For 𝑃(𝐴′ )
𝑃 𝐴′ = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴)
= 1 − 0.6588
𝑃 𝐴′ = 0.3412 ← 𝐴𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟
4. The probability that it will rain in Manila tomorrow is 0.30, and the
probability it will rain in Quezon City is 0.40. The probability that it will
rain in both cities tomorrow is 0.20. What is the probability that it will
rain in at least one of the two cities?
Solution:
determine 𝑃(𝑀 ∪ 𝑄); probability that it will rain in at least one of
the two cities
For 𝑃(𝑀 ∪ 𝑄)
𝑃 𝑀 ∪ 𝑄 = 𝑃 𝑀 + 𝑃 𝑄 − 𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝑄)
= 0.30 + 0.40 − 0.20
𝑃 𝑀 ∪ 𝑄 = 0.50 ← 𝐴𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟
5. A card is drawn from a standard deck of 52 cards. What is the
probability that it is a face card or an eight?
Solution:
determine 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ; probability that a face or an eight card is
drawn
Let:
 𝐴 → event that a face card is drawn
𝐵 → event that an eight card is drawn
For 𝑃(𝐴)
𝑛(𝐴)
𝑃 𝐴 =
𝑁
where::
𝑛 𝐴 = 12
𝑁 = 52
Hence
12 3
𝑃 𝐴 = or
52 13
For 𝑃(𝐵)
𝑛(𝐵)
𝑃 𝐵 =
𝑁
where:
𝑛 𝐵 =4
𝑁 = 52
Hence
4 1
𝑃 𝐵 = or
52 13
For 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵
𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃(𝐵)
3 1
= +
13 13

4
𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 = ← 𝐴𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟
13
6. It is known that 25% of a certain company’s washing
machines require service while under warranty, whereas only
15% of its dryers need such service. If someone purchases both
washer and dryer made by this company, what is the probability
that both machines need warranty service?
Solution:
determine 𝑃(𝑊 ∩ 𝐷) ; probability that both machines need
warranty service
Let:
𝑊 → event that the washer needs service while under warranty
𝐷 → event that the dryer needs service while under warranty
 𝑃 𝑊 ∩ 𝐷 = 𝑃(𝑊) ∙ 𝑃(𝐷)
= 0.25 (0.15)
𝑃 𝑊 ∩ 𝐷 = 0.0375 ← 𝐴𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟
7. A box contains 5 red and 4 white marbles. Two marbles are drawn
successively from the box without replacement and it is noted that
the second one is white. What is the probability that the first is also
white?
Solution:
determine 𝑃 𝑊1 𝑊2 ; probability that first marble drawn is also
white
Let:
𝑊1 → the event white marble on the first draw
𝑊2 → the event white marble on the second draw
For 𝑃 𝑊1 𝑊2
𝑃(𝑊1 ∩ 𝑊2 ) 𝑃 𝑊2 𝑊1 ∙ 𝑃(𝑊1 )
𝑃 𝑊1 𝑊2 = =
𝑃(𝑊1 ) 𝑃(𝑊1 )
3 4
= 8 9
4
9
3
𝑃 𝑊1 𝑊2 = ← 𝐴𝑛𝑠𝑤8𝑒𝑟
8
8. A survey of attitudes about one’s job yields the data in the following
table:
Happy Unhappy Total
Bus Drivers 50 75 125
Lawyers 40 35 75
Total 90 110 200
A person from this group is selected at random. Given that the
selected person is a bus driver, find the probability that he or
she is happy
Solution:
determine 𝑃 𝐻 𝐵 ; probability that a bus driver is selected and
he is a happy person
Let:
𝐻 → the event that a happy person is selected
𝐵 → the event that a bus driver is selected
For 𝑃 𝐻 𝐵
𝑃(𝐻 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃 𝐻𝐵 =
𝑃(𝐵)
 50
𝑃 𝐻 𝐵 = 200
125
200

50 2
𝑃 𝐻𝐵 = or ← 𝐴𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟
125 5
9. Machine 𝑀1 produces 30% of the day’s production of a
certain product, while machines 𝑀2 and 𝑀3 produce 25% and
45% respectively. Suppose machines 𝑀1 , 𝑀2 , and 𝑀3 turnout
2%, 3%, and 4% defective products respectively each day. If
an item is picked at random and is found to be defective, what
is the probability that it came from machine 𝑀1 ?
Solution:
determine 𝑃 𝐴 def ; probability that the defective item came from 𝑀1
Let:
𝐴, 𝐵, and 𝐶 denote the sets of products produced by 𝑀1 , 𝑀2 , and 𝑀3
respectively
For 𝑃 𝐴 def
𝑃 def 𝐴 ∙ 𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃 𝐴 def =
𝑃 def 𝐴 ∙ 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 def 𝐵 ∙ 𝑃 𝐵 + 𝑃 def 𝐶 ∙ 𝑃(𝐶)

0.02 (0.30)
=
0.02 0.30 + 0.03 0.25 + 0.04 (0.45)

𝑃 𝐴 defective = 0.1905 ← 𝐴𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟

 EXERCISE NO. 2
1. A box contains 18 losing tickets and 2 winning tickets. A ticket is
selected at random. Find the probability that a winning ticket is
selected.
2. A card is selected at random from an ordinary deck of playing
cards. Find the probability that: (a) the card is a diamond; (b) the
card is a 6; (c) the card is the 6 of diamond.
3. A box contains 8 green balls and 5 red balls. Five balls are
selected at random. Find the probability that: (a) all 5 balls are green;
(b) exactly 3 of the 5 balls are red; (c) at least one of the 5 balls is
red; (d) 2 or 3 of the 5 balls are red.
4. Five cards are dealt from a well shuffled deck. Find the probability
that: (a) all are face cards; (b) 3 are face cards and 2 are tens; (c) at
least 3 are face cards; (d) none is a face card.
5. Suppose you buy 10 tickets to a lottery in which there are to be 5
prizes awarded on the basis of a random drawing. There are a total of
150 tickets sold. What is your chance of winning (a) no prizes? (b) at
least one prize? (c) exactly 3 prizes? (d) all 5 prizes?
6. Out of 20 light bulbs, 4 of which are burnt out, you select 3 bulbs at
random. Find the probability that: (a) all are burnt out; (b) none is burnt
out; (c) at least one is burnt out; (d) exactly one is burnt out.
7. A card is drawn at random from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards.
Find the probability that it is: (a) an ace; (b) a jack of hearts; (c) a three
of clubs or a six of diamonds; (d) a heart; (e) any suit except hearts; (f)
a ten or a spade; (g) neither a four nor a club.
8. If three books are picked at random from a shelf containing four
novels, three books of poems, and a dictionary, what is the probability
that (a) the dictionary is selected? (b) two novels and one book of
poems are selected?
9. In a word game, a player has the letters A A A E E E E I I S S
S D D R R T T L Z U U Q. Suppose the letter tiles are placed
face down, shuffled, and then 8 tiles are chosen at random. What is
the probability that it is possible to spell (a) ADDRESS from the
chosen tiles? (b) QUIZ from the chosen tiles? (c) DATE and STUD
from the chosen tiles?
10. Five letters are chosen at random from 26 letters of the alphabet
to form a word. What is the probability that: (a) none of the letters is a
vowel? (b) the word begins with 3 consonants and ends in 2 vowels?
11. A box contains 2 red balls and 6 blue balls. Two balls are selected
at random with replacement. Find the probability that: (a) both balls
are red, (b) at least one ball is red, and (c) exactly one ball is red.
12. Two dice are rolled. If 2, 3, or 12 comes up you win. Otherwise,
you lose. Fid the probability that you win.
13.A group of faculty members at a small college operate a carpool to
three kinds of activities, baseball games, opera, and the theater. Suppose
there are 86 families in the carpool and that in a given month:
11families attend none of the activities
33 families go to baseball games
35 families go to opera
39 families go to the theater
14 families go to just baseball games
17 families go to just the theater
15 families go to just the opera
If a family is chosen at random, what is the probability that: (a) the family
goes to all 3 activities? (b) the family goes to at least one activity?
14. Two cards are selected from a 52 card deck. What is the
probability that the first is a 4 and the second is a Jack if: (a) the first
card is not replaced before the second is selected? (b) the first card
is replaced before the second card is selected?
15. A deep sea diver has two independent oxygen systems, so that
even if one breaks down, the diver still gets oxygen. Suppose the
probability that system 1 works is 0.90, while the probability that
system 2 works is 0.80, find the probability that: (a) neither system
breaks down and (b) at least one system works.
16. Box 𝐴 has 4 green marbles and 5 red marbles. Box 𝐵 has 3
green marbles and 2 red marbles. A marble is selected at random
from box 𝐵 and is put into box 𝐴. Then a marble is selected at
random from box 𝐴. Find the probability that: (a) the marble selected
from box 𝐴 is green; and (b) the marble selected from box 𝐵 is
green, given that the marble selected from box 𝐴 is green.
17. At a certain university, 60% of the beer drinkers are cigarette smokers,
while 40% of the students who do not drink beer are cigarette smokers.
Also, a total of 30% of the students are beer drinkers. A student is elected
at random, find the probability that: (a) the selected student drinks beer,
given that he or she smokes cigarettes; (b) the selected student drinks
beer, given that he or she does not smoke cigarettes.
18. Three drawers each contain two socks. Drawer 1 contains 2 black
socks, Drawer 2 contains 1 black and 1 white sock, and Drawer 3
contains 2 white socks. One drawer is selected at random, and a sock is
picked at random. If the sock is white, what is the probability that the other
sock in the drawer is also white?
19. In a certain province, 55% vote for Duterte for president. Three voters
are selected at random, find the probability that: (a) all 3 will vote for
Duterte, (b) exactly 2 will vote for Duterte, andc) all 3 will not vote for
Duterte.
20. A pair of dice is rolled 3 times. Find the probability that: (a) the
dice add up to 7 each time; (b) the dice add up to 7 at least once.
21. At a certain beach, it is found that 20% of the women have red
hair, 50% have dark hair (brown or black), and 30% have blond hair.
For the men at the same beach, 10% have red hair, 70% have dark
hair, and 20% are blond. Find the probability that (a) a beachgoer
selected at random is blond and (b) a blond beachgoer is a woman.
22. An insurance company classifies policyholders as either good
(G), bad (B), or questionable (Q). Suppose the probability of having
an accident during a given time period is 0.02 for G drivers, 0.09 for
B drivers, and 0.04 for Q drivers. If 57% of current policyholders are
G drivers, 23% are B, and 20% are Q, and an accident is reported,
what is the probability that the person who just had the accident is a
good driver? A questionable driver? A bad driver?
23. An article in the business publication, Insider’s Daily predicts
that there is 40% chance of an up market this summer, a 25%
chance of a flat market, and a 35% of a down market. It is
estimated that a certain market strategy (for example, to buy
growth stocks) will be successful 70% of the time in an up market,
20% in a flat market, and only 10% in a down market. If the
strategy turns out to be successful, what is the probability that the
economy is down?
24. In the World Series, the winner is the first team to win 4 out of
7 games. Suppose team A wins the first game of the series. (a) If
the two teams are evenly matched, what is the probability that A
will win the series? (b) If past history indicates that team A usually
wins 40% of its games with team B, now what is the probability
that A wins the series?