MODULE NO.
1
BASIC CONCEPTS OF
PROBABILITY
SAMPLE SPACE
The sample space of an experiment, denoted by S is the set of all
possible outcomes of that experiment.
Example:
a. A six- sided die is tossed once, the possible outcomes will be;
•
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
b. A coin is tossed twice, the sample space will be;
S = {HH, HT, TT, TH}
EVENT
An event is any collection (subset) of outcomes contained in the
sample space.
i. An event that contains only one element of the sample
space is called simple event.
ii. An event is said to be compound if it consists of more
than one outcome.
iii. A null space or empty space denoted by ∅ is a subset
of the sample space.
Example:
1. When two dice are tossed, there are 36 possible outcomes.
The 36 simple events are:
𝐸1 = {(1,1)}, 𝐸2 = {(1,2)}, 𝐸3 = {(1,3)}, . . . , 𝐸34 = {(6,4)}, 𝐸35 =
{(6,5)}, 𝐸36 = {(6,6)}
The compound events are:
𝐴 = {(1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6)}; the event that
both tosses show the same face.
𝐵 = {(1,3), (2,2), (3,1)}; the event that the sum of the
numbers resulting from the two tosses is four.
𝐶 = {(6,6), (6,5), (5,6)}; the event that the sum of the two
numbers is at least 11.
RELATION FROM SET THEORY
a. The union of two events 𝐴 and 𝐵, denoted by 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 and
read “𝐴 or 𝐵” is the event consisting of all outcomes that are
either in 𝐴 or in 𝐵 or in both events as shown in the Venn
diagram.
b. The intersection of two events 𝐴 and 𝐵, denoted by 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 and read
“𝐴 and 𝐵” is the event consisting of all outcomes that are in both 𝐴 and
𝐵 as shown in the Venn diagram.
c. The complement of an event 𝐴, denoted by 𝐴′ is the set of all
outcomes in S that are not contained in 𝐴 as shown in the Venn
diagram.
Note:
i. Two events 𝐴 and 𝐵 are mutually exclusive when 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = ∅.
ii. A Venn diagram is a device that is used to illustrate event
relationships. In such diagrams, the sample space is represented
by a background rectangle and the individual events are
represented by circles within the rectangle.
iii. The relative complement of 𝐵 in 𝐴 denoted by 𝐴 − 𝐵 is the set
of elements of 𝐴 that are not in 𝐵.
Example:
For the experiment consisting of a single toss of a die, let 𝐴 = {1,
2, 3}, 𝐵 = {1, 2, 5, 6}, 𝐶 = {1, 3, 5}, hence
𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = {1, 2, 3, 5, 6}
𝐴 ∪ 𝐶 = {1, 2, 3, 5}
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = {1, 2}
𝐴 ∩ 𝐶 = {1, 3}
A′ = {4, 5, 6}
C′ = {2, 4, 6}
𝐴 − 𝐵 = {3}
DE MORGAN’S LAW
For any events 𝐴 and 𝐵, the complement of the union is the
intersection of the complements and the complement of the
intersection is the union of the complements.
𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ′ = 𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵′
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ′ = 𝐴′ ∪ 𝐵′
Similar laws hold for more than two events (sets).
EXAMPLE PROBLEMS
1. Let S = a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h , 𝐴 = {c, d, e, f}, and 𝐵 ={e, f, h} show
that 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ′ = 𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵′
Solution:
′
Show that 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵′
Solving for 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵
𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = {c, d, e, f, h}
′
Solving for 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵
′
𝐴∪𝐵 = {a, b, g}
Solving for 𝐴′ and 𝐵′
𝐴′ = {a, b, g, h}, 𝐵′ = {a, b, c, d, g}
𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵′= {a, b, g}
Hence
′
𝐴∪𝐵 = {a, b, g} = 𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵′
2. Let S = 𝑥 𝑥 is a marble in the box 𝐴 = 𝑥 𝑥 is a red marble ,
𝐵 = 𝑥 𝑥 is a blue marble , and 𝐶 = 𝑥 𝑥 is a small marble ,
find a 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵, b 𝐴 ∩ 𝐶, c 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶 ′ , d 𝐴 ∩ 𝐶 ′ , and e 𝐵 ∩
𝐶′.
Solution:
a. determine 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵
For 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵
𝐴∪𝐵 =S ← 𝐴𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟
b. determine 𝐴 ∩ 𝐶
For 𝐴 ∩ 𝐶
𝐴 ∩ 𝐶 = 𝑥 𝑥 is a small red marble ← 𝐴𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟
c. determine (𝐵 ∪ 𝐶)′
For (𝐵 ∪ 𝐶)′
′
𝐵∪𝐶 = 𝐵′ ∩ 𝐶 ′ = 𝑥 𝑥 is a big red marble ← 𝐴𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟
′
d. determine 𝐴 ∩ 𝐶
′
For 𝐴 ∩ 𝐶
′
𝐴∩𝐶 = 𝐴′ ∪ 𝐶 ′ = 𝑥 𝑥 is blue or big marble ← 𝐴𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟
e. determine 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 ′
For 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 ′
𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 ′ = 𝑥 𝑥 is a big blue marble ← 𝐴𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟
EXERCISE NO. 1
1. Let: 𝐴 = 0, 1, 2 , 𝐵 = 1, 2, 3 , and 𝐶 = {3, 4}. Find: (a) 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵, (b)
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵, (c) 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶, (d) 𝐴 ∩ 𝐶, (e) 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶, (f) 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶. (g) 𝐵 − 𝐴
(h) 𝐴 − 𝐶, (i) 𝐶 − 𝐵, (j) 𝐴 − 𝐵.
2. List the elements of each of the following events:
a. the set of integers between 10 and 70 divisible by 8;
b. the set S = 𝑥 𝑥 2 + 3𝑥 − 18 = 0 ;
c. the set of outcomes when a coin is tossed until a tail or
three heads appear;
d. the set S = 𝑥 𝑥 2 − 5𝑥 + 6 > 0 ;
e. the set S = 𝑥 2𝑥 − 4 ≥ 0 and 𝑥 < 1 .
3𝑥
f. the set S = 𝑥 1 − ≥𝑥−4
2
3. An experiment consists of tossing a die and then flipping a coin
once if the number on the die is even. If the number on the die is odd,
the coin is flipped twice. Using the notation 4H, for example, to denote
the event that the die comes up 4 and then the coin comes up head,
and 3HT to denote the event that the die comes up 3 followed by a
head and then a tail on the coin. List all the elements of the sample
space.
4. Justify the following versions of De Morgan’s laws for three sets:
a. 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶 ′ = 𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵′ ∩ 𝐶′
b. 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 ′ = 𝐴′ ∪ 𝐵′ ∪ 𝐶′
5. All apples in a certain bag are either red or green. Let S =
𝑥 𝑥 is an apple in the bag , 𝐴= 𝑥 𝑥 is a red apple , 𝐵=
𝑥 𝑥 is a green apple , and 𝐶 = 𝑥 𝑥 is a large apple . Describe the
following sets: a. 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵, b. 𝐴 ∩ 𝐶, c. 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶, d. 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶 ′ , 𝑒. 𝐵′ ∩ 𝐶 ′ , and f.
𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 ′.
6. A local radio station conducts a survey in which each
person in a certain group is asked whether they have a
dog, a cat, or a bird (sets 𝐷, 𝐶, and 𝐵) respectively. Draw
a Venn diagram for the three sets, and label each of the
following as a region in the diagram. (a) People with all
three kinds of pets. (b) People with only a bird. (c)
People with a dog and a cat but no bird. (d) People with
no pet