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Movie Data Analysis and SimCity Study

The document outlines a tutorial for GEA1000 Quantitative Reasoning with Data, focusing on two case studies: box office records for movies and the SimCity game. It includes instructions for data analysis, sampling methods, variable classification, data cleaning, and visualization techniques. Additionally, it discusses the design of a study to compare promotional strategies for the SimCity game, emphasizing the importance of effective measurement and study setup.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
14 views7 pages

Movie Data Analysis and SimCity Study

The document outlines a tutorial for GEA1000 Quantitative Reasoning with Data, focusing on two case studies: box office records for movies and the SimCity game. It includes instructions for data analysis, sampling methods, variable classification, data cleaning, and visualization techniques. Additionally, it discusses the design of a study to compare promotional strategies for the SimCity game, emphasizing the importance of effective measurement and study setup.

Uploaded by

joellelai84
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

GEA1000 QUANTITATIVE REASONING WITH DATA

TUTORIAL 1
Please work on the problems before coming to class. In class, you will engage in group work.

In this tutorial, we will be looking at two case studies:


• Exploring box office records for movies
• The SimCity game.

Case Study 1: Exploring Box office records for movies.

Refer to the csv file “[Link]”. Below is a brief description of some of the variables which
may not be considered common knowledge. The other variables in the data set, not listed
below are self-explanatory.

Variable Description
Production_Budget The cost involved in making the movie.
Worldwide_Gross The revenue generated from screening the movie in public
theatres around the world.
CPI The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an important economic
metric used to measure the change in general prices of goods
and services (otherwise known as inflation) in a country. Very
often, this index is derived by considering a weighted average
of the prices of goods and services consumed in the country.
The weight assigned to each good or service is determined by
the monetary authority of the country but is very often linked
to the consumption patterns of the average individual in the
country.
MPAA_Rating The Motion Picture Association of America film rating system is
used in the United States and its territories to rate a motion
picture’s suitability for certain audiences based on its content.
If a film has not been submitted for a rating or is an uncut
version of a film that was submitted, the label Not Rated (NR) is
used.
IMDb_Rating IMDb is an abbreviation for Internet Movie Database, which is
an online database of information related to films. The IMDb
offers a rating scale that allows users to rate films on a scale of
one to ten based on how they feel about the film, with a low
score being regarded as an unfavourable view and a high score
being regarded as a favourable one.
The submitted ratings are filtered and weighted in various ways
(partly depending on the stature of the person rating the
movie) to produce a “weighted mean” that is displayed for each
film and IMDb keeps the formula of the weighted mean as
confidential.
Voter_Numbers The number of voters who rated the movie on IMDb which
eventually resulted in the IMDb rating.

1
Sampling
This data obtained was taken on 14th August 2023 from the following website

[Link]

consisting of 6420 movies, via the following procedure. All 6420 movies’ information was
downloaded. A random number between 1 and 6420 was generated and assigned to each
movie without allowing for repetition of numbers. Then the movies labelled “1” to “1091”
were selected and the information provided from the website was merged with other publicly
available information pertaining to them, to construct the data.

a) State the sampling frame and determine what type of sampling was done here.

Types of Variables

b) For all the variables, except IMDb Rating, determine which are numerical and which
are categorical. Were there instances where it was unclear whether to classify the
variable as numerical or categorical?

Data Cleaning
When working with data, we are not usually fortunate enough to be handling data that is
pristine and requires no form of cleaning/tidying. In this part we will highlight two
manifestations of potentially dirty data and how we can go about dealing with them.

Manifestation 1: Missing values


c) (i) Identify the variables for which there are missing values.

(ii) Name the variables for which the number of missing values is relatively small
(i.e., greater than 0 and less than 30). Given that the number of missing values
for these variables is small, suggest what can be done for this form of dirty
data.

(iii) Name the variables for which the number of missing values is very large (i.e.,
more than 100). If you were to try and implement your suggestion(s) in (ii), to
what extent is it feasible here?

Manifestation 2: Unusual values


For numerical values in data sets, in addition to calculating the mean and standard
deviation of these variables, it is a common practice for the description to include
what is known as the “Five-Number Summary”, which consists of
- Minimum
- Q1
- Median
- Q3
- Maximum

2
Whilst the Five-Number summary, together with the mean and standard deviation
(SD), is used to provide quantitative information about groups of data, sometimes
they can also be used to identify sources of unusual data values.

d) Give the Five-number summary together with the mean and SD for the variable
Worldwide_Gross. Describe if there are any anomalies in the summary statistics
values. Explain what could result in such an anomaly and hence, explain the
circumstances under which it would be justifiable to remove these anomalous data
points. (Hint: Refer to the description of Worldwide_Gross given in the table)

Data Visualisation
While we now have some idea that the data cleaning process can be an extensive one, for the
rest of this question, you may ignore the movies where Release_Year or CPI are blank.

Inflation is the rate of increase in prices over a given period. Let us adjust for the Production
Budget with reference to 2022’s CPI which is 294.4. Here is an example of how it can be done.
For example, Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens (the first movie in the data set) has a
production budget of $306,000,000 and the year of release was 2015. The CPI for 2015 is 237.
This means that the “equivalent” production budget for 2022 is estimated to be
294.4
× 306,000,000 = $380,111,392 (to the nearest whole number)
237

e) Create a new variable called Adjusted_Production_Budget where all


production budgets are valued with reference to the 2022 CPI.

f) Use a suitable visualisation to depict the trend of the averages for Production_
Budget and the averages for Adjusted_Production_Budget between the
years 2012 – 2022. Compare the trends obtained between adjusting for inflation and
not adjusting for inflation.

Generalisability

g) Suppose that we wished to investigate trends and patterns in the movie industry, and
we were to do an analysis using this sample data to help us understand those trends
and patterns. Then to what extent can any findings obtained using this data be
generalisable to the movie industry? Base your answer on the generalisability criteria
that you have learnt as well as the information given on the website.

3
Case Study 2: The SimCity game
(This question is based off a real-life case study of the SimCity marketing team preparing a
promotional offer for an expansion pack of the game.)
A company developed a new version of the game SimCity and was preparing a promotional
offer to drive more game pre-orders. The pre-ordering period lasts for 4 months up to the
official release date of the game. The offer was displayed as a banner across the top of the
pre-order page as shown below (Design A). This was based on the principle that
direct/explicit promotions (such as what you see below) drive purchases.

Design A:

But according to the marketing team, within the first month, the promotion was not driving
the increase in pre-orders they had expected. The team decided to test some other options
to see what design/layout would drive more revenue. After working with a marketing tech
firm, they came up with an alternate design that had a different display for the same game
but without any direct promotion being mentioned (Design B).

Design B:

Now, their goal is to determine whether Design B can help generate more revenue as
compared to their original Design A. The target population for the researchers are the
people who are interested in playing SimCity. Every person accessing the website will

4
automatically be enrolled to participate in the study and will be shown one of the 2 designs.
In addition, you may assume the following:

• Those who enroll in Design B will still receive $20 off their next purchase.
• The design they are enrolled into is tagged to their internet IP address. In other
words, if a person visits the website for the second time, the design that he/she is
enrolled into, is the same design that he/she saw when he/she visited the website
for the first time, if the website was accessed through the same IP address.

Based on the information given, answer the following questions.

a) State the aim of the study.

b) What design of study would be suitable to compare the effectiveness of their two
designs?

c) Based on your choice in b), give some details on how the company can proceed to
set up the study. Your answer should clearly state the following:
• The rationale for choosing the study design.
• The measurement of the variable that will allow for comparison between the
effectiveness of the two designs.
• Whether random assignment would be possible.
• How long should the study be conducted? (For example, can the company
afford to let the study run for 3 months?)
• What would be some limitations and difficulties encountered in the process
of conducting the study?

Remarks: For part c), we do not expect you to give an answer to the level of an expert
working in the company as such people would have significantly more technical knowledge
and experience with marketing, advertising, and product management. However, you can
work towards giving an answer that has some basic ideas in place and is reasonable from an
implementation point of view.

5
Appendix: How to Plot a Line Graph using Radiant (Case Study 1, Question f)

Before we begin the data visualisation process, it would be helpful to know that for categorical
variables that are represented by numbers, Radiant treats them as numerical variables, which should
not be the case. Therefore, before doing any visualisation of such variables, we first convert them to
the correct variable type.

Changing Numerical to Categorical Variables

- Click on the “Transform” Tab.


- Under “Select variables”, select the relevant categorical variables that have been labelled as “numeric”.
- Under “Transformation type”, select “Change type”.
- Under “Change variable type”, select “As factor”.
- Store the data and rename it (for example, as “Movies1”).

6
Plotting a Line Graph

1. Under “Plot-type”, select “Line”.


2. Under “Y-variable”, select “Production_Budget (numeric)”.
3. Under “X-variable”, select “Release_Year (factor)”.
4. Under “Function”, select “mean”.
5. Click “Create plot”. You should obtain the line graph as shown in the diagram above.

Common questions

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Using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to adjust historical movie production budgets corrects for inflation, offering a more accurate picture of true production costs over time. This adjustment allows stakeholders to compare production expenditure across different years on an equal footing. However, the accuracy of such adjustments depends on the relevance and accuracy of the CPI index, which might not fully capture specific industry price changes and monetary value shifts, especially without detailed industry-specific indices .

Visualization of budget trends over time can highlight how budgets have increased or decreased relative to inflation, providing insights into real cost changes over time. When comparing adjusted versus unadjusted budgets, a critical difference observed is that adjusted budgets typically show a consistent financial landscape accounting for inflation's erosion of purchasing power, whereas unadjusted budgets might display artificial growth due to nominal increases. This visualization helps stakeholders understand the actual investment power needed or expended over the years, which is crucial for historical financial analyses .

When handling missing values, one must consider the proportion of missing data. For variables with a small number of missing values (less than 30), imputation strategies such as mean substitution or using interpolation methods may be applicable. However, for variables with a large number of missing values (more than 100), imputation may introduce significant bias, and it may be better to exclude these variables entirely. Successfully implementing these strategies depends on the context and objectives of the study, as well as the underlying causes of the missing data .

Ensuring participant retention in the SimCity study could involve strategies such as providing incentives for completing multiple visits or offering reminders and prompts. Addressing dropout bias may also include collecting data on initial visits immediately and using this to adjust for dropouts computationally. Additionally, stratifying the participants based on initial engagement levels or employing adaptive interventions could help maintain balance in experimental conditions. Identifying reasons for dropouts through exit surveys could also inform better retention strategies .

The CPI allows financial data to be adjusted for inflation by providing a relative measure of changes in price levels over time. It is calculated as a weighted average of prices, reflecting consumption patterns. Adjusting financial data with CPI is crucial because it enables a fair comparison of monetary values across different time periods, thereby reflecting real value changes rather than nominal ones. For instance, by adjusting the Production Budget of movies to a reference year’s CPI, one can account for inflation when comparing budgets from different years, making it possible to assess the real economic burden or profitability of these budgets .

The 'Five-Number Summary' provides a succinct statistical description through the minimum, Q1, median, Q3, and maximum values. It is a recommended practice because it helps in understanding data distribution, identifying central tendencies, and detecting potential outliers. This summary, along with mean and standard deviation, offers insights into data variability and concentration, enabling analysts to pinpoint and possibly exclude anomalies that might skew results, resulting in more accurate analyses .

Understanding the sample size and population is crucial for generalisability, because it determines whether sample findings can adequately represent broader industry patterns. A diverse sample that accurately reflects the variability of the entire movie industry will likely lead to more reliable insights. Limitations occur if the sample is biased or too narrow, potentially influencing general conclusions drawn about industry trends. Without a representative sample, findings from this study may not fully encompass broader movie industry realities, limiting their applicability .

The study utilizes a randomized controlled trial design, optimal for comparing the effectiveness of promotional designs by randomly assigning participants into groups that view different displays. This approach minimizes selection bias, allows for control of confounding variables, and facilitates causal inference regarding the impact of design changes. However, limitations include the potential for non-random dropout bias (e.g., if some visitors do not return), incomplete adherence to group assignments if users switch devices, and limited generalizeability if the sample is not representative of the broader population interested in SimCity .

The sampling frame consisted of movies from a database covering 6420 movies. The type of sampling used was random sampling, as each movie was assigned a random number between 1 to 6420, and movies labelled from 1 to 1091 were selected. This method aims to minimize bias, but it is dependent on the randomness of the assignment. Biases may still exist due to the initial composition of movies in the database and external factors influencing movie selection into the database .

Potential anomalies in the "Worldwide Gross" data can be identified through discrepancies discovered in the Five-Number Summary, mean, and standard deviation. Anomalies could result from reporting errors, such as incorrect figures, or from unique outlier events like special screenings leading to unusual revenue spikes. It might be justifiable to remove such outliers if they result from data entry errors or are extreme values that unduly influence analysis outcomes, thereby impairing the study’s objectives to understand typical revenue patterns .

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