MODULE NO.
9
GEOMETRIC AND POISSON DISTRIBUTION
GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION
If the repeated independent trials can result in a success
with probability 𝑝 and failure with probability 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝, then
the probability distribution of the random variable 𝑋 , the
number of trials on which the first success occurs, is given by
𝑥−1
𝑔 𝑥; 𝑝 = 𝑝𝑞 𝑥 = 1, 2, 3, . . .
The mean and variance of a random variable following the
geometric distribution are
1 2
1−𝑝
𝜇= 𝜎 = 2
𝑝 𝑝
POISSON DISTRIBUTION
The probability distribution of the Poisson random variable 𝑋 ,
representing the number of outcomes occurring in a given time interval
or specified region denoted by 𝑡 is given by;
𝑒 −𝜆𝑡 (𝜆𝑡)𝑥
𝑝 𝑥 ; 𝜆𝑡 = ; 𝑥 = 0, 1, 2, 3, . . .
𝑥!
where λ is the average number of outcomes per unit time or region and
𝑒 = 2.71828 …
The mean and variance of the Poisson distribution 𝑝 𝑥; 𝜆𝑡 both
have the same value, λt.
EXAMPLES
1. The probability that a student pilot passes the written test for his
private pilot’s license is 0.70. Find the probability that a person passes
the test (a) on the third try and (b) before the fourth try.
Solution:
a. Determine 𝑃 𝑋 = 3 ; probability that the person passes the
test on the third try
For 𝑃 𝑋 = 3
𝑃 𝑋 = 3 = 𝑔 𝑥; 𝑝 = 𝑔 3; 0.70
= 𝑝𝑞 𝑥 − 1
= (0.70)(0.30)3 − 1
𝑃 𝑋 = 3 = 0.0630 ← 𝐴𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟
b. Determine 𝑃 𝑋 < 4 ; probability that the person passes the
test before the fourth try
For 𝑃 𝑋 < 4
𝑃 𝑋 < 4 = 𝑔 1; 0.70 + 𝑔 2; 0.70 + 𝑔 3; 0.70
𝑃 𝑋 < 4 = 0.70 0.30 1 − 1 + 0.70 0.30 2−1 +
0.70 0.30 3 − 1
𝑃 𝑋 < 4 = 0.9730 ← 𝐴𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟
2. On the average a certain intersection results in three traffic
accidents per week. What is the probability that exactly five
accidents will occur at this intersection in any given week?
Solution:
Determine 𝑃 𝑋 = 5 ; probability that exactly 5 accidents occur
For 𝑃 𝑋 = 5
𝑃 𝑋 = 5 = 𝑝 𝑥; 𝜇 = 𝑝(5; 3)
𝑒 −3 (3)5
=
5!
𝑃 𝑋 = 5 = 0.1008 ←𝐴𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟
EXERCISE NO. 6
1. Three people toss a coin and the odd man pays the coffee. If
the coins all turn up the same, they are toss again. Find the
probability that (a) fewer than 4 tosses are needed and (b)
more than 3 tosses are required
2. A secretary makes 2 errors per page, on average. What is
the probability that on the next page he or she will make (a) 4
or more errors? (b) no errors?
3. A certain area of the eastern United States is, on average,
hit by six hurricanes a year. Find the probability that for a given
year that area will be hit by (a) fewer than 4 hurricanes; (b)
anywhere from 6 to 8 hurricanes.
4. The probability that a person will die from a certain
respiratory infection is 0.002. Find the probability that fewer
than 5 of the next 2,000 so infected will die.
5. The probability that a student fails the screening test for
scoliosis at a local high school is known to be 0.004. Of the
next 1,875 students who are screened for scoliosis, find the
probability that (a) fewer than 5 fail the test and (b) 8, 9, or 10
fail the test.
6. A local drugstore owner knows that, on average, 100 people
per hour stop by his store. (a) Find the probability that in a
given 3-minute period nobody enters the store. (b) Find the
probability that in a given 3-minute period more than 5 people
enter the store.