Senco Gold FY25 Financial Update Report
Senco Gold FY25 Financial Update Report
16 November 2024
EBITDA/PAT hurt by customs duty loss. Q2 consol. revenue grew ~31% Estimates revision (%) FY25e FY26e
y/y to Rs15bn on 27% retail sales growth and 20% SSSG. Gold grew 30%/7% Sales (3.3) (5.1)
y/y by value/volume; diamonds 9% y/y by value, but volumes slipped 3% y/y. EBITDA (4.1) (4.3)
ATV grew 12% y/y on preference for higher-priced products, but ahead will be EPS (10.3) (4.0)
driven by daily wear. The gross margin rose 44bps y/y to 12.3%. The studded mix
was ~11% in Q2. EBITDA grew 31.5% y/y to Rs519m while the margin was flat Relative price performance
y/y at 3.5%, hit by customs duty-related losses. PAT grew 1.5% y/y to Rs121m. 1,600
1,400
More WC required. Inventory rose Rs4.4bn (vs end-FY24) on the rise in gold 1,200
prices, resulting in a Rs1.2bn rise in debt. Inventory hedging was 85% in Q2. The 1,000
company plans to raise Rs5bn through a QIP for WC required and stores added. 800
Old gold exchange contributed 34% y/y, 62% of which came from non-Senco 600
customers, indicating a shift from the unorganized to the organized segment. 400
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Valuation. We retain our Buy at a TP of Rs1,401, 32x FY27e P/E. At the SENCO Sensex
CMP, the stock is valued at 35.4x/24.6x/18.7x FY25e/26e/27e P/E. Risks:
Source: Bloomberg
More working capital, higher regulatory requirements, keener competition.
Key financials (YE Mar) FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e
Sales (Rs m) 40,774 52,414 62,340 74,598 89,917
Net profit (Rs m) 1,585 1,810 2,107 3,035 3,993
EPS (Rs) 22.9 26.1 30.4 43.8 57.6
P/E (x) - 29.5 35.4 24.6 18.7
EV / EBITDA (x) - 17.5 19.5 15.2 12.7 Vaishnavi Mandhaniya
P/BV (x) - 3.9 4.8 4.0 3.3 Research Analyst
RoE (%) 19.0 15.7 14.4 17.8 19.5 +9122 66266760
vaishnavimandhaniya@[Link]
RoCE (%) 10.7 9.2 9.2 11.1 12.5
Dividend yield (%) - 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Shreya Baheti
Net debt / equity (x) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 Research Associate
shreyabaheti@[Link]
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited (hereinafter “ARSSBL”) is a full-service brokerage and equities-research firm and the views expressed therein are solely of
ARSSBL and not of the companies which have been covered in the Research Report. This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures and analyst
certifications are present in the Appendix.
200 2,000
0 -
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q3FY23
Q4FY23
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
Q3FY24
Q4FY24
Q1FY25
Q2FY25
Feb-24
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Dec-23
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Oct-24
Financial highlights
Q2 consolidated revenue grew 30.9% y/y, 6.9% q/q, to Rs15bn. The gross
margin expanded 44bps y/y to 12.3% (but q/q was down 504bps).
Employee/other expenses grew 31.7%/39.6% y/y. EBITDA grew 31.5%
y/y to Rs519m (but q/q fell 52.2%), the margin coming flat y/y at 3.5% (but
q/q down 429bps). Depreciation/interest expense/other income were up
~35%/40%/35% y/y. PBT grew 17.7% y/y to Rs164m. The tax rate rose
to 25.9% (from 14.1% a year ago). PAT grew 1.5% y/y to Rs121m (but q/q
plunged 76.4%).
H1 FY25 revenue grew 18.5% y/y to Rs29bn. The gross margin expanded
251bps y/y to 14.7%. EBITDA grew 50.6% y/y to Rs1.6bn and the margin
expanded 118bps y/y to 5.5%. PAT grew 60% y/y to Rs634m. Net debt
was ~Rs11bn (vs. Rs9.5bn at end-FY24). Net working capital days were 161
(vs 141 a year back) on the back of 28-day y/y rise in inventory days to 182.
Receivables days were six (vs five a year ago) while payables days rose by
nine y/y to 27. H1 FY25 OCF/FCF were negative Rs826m/1bn (vs.
negative Rs1.4bn/1.6bn last year).
Other Highlights
◼ Demand. Q2 sales grew ~31% y/y, driven by 20% SSSG, despite the
seasonally weak quarter. The customs duty cut (at end-July) reduced gold
prices, prompting customers to advance purchases, boosting Q2
revenue growth. Growth was led by tier-2, -3, and -4 cities and towns,
along with semi-urban areas.
◼ Festival sales. October sales hit a record high, surpassing Rs10bn, with
3-4% volume growth, 24-25% y/y value growth and 12-15% SSSG.
YTD growth was 15-18%.
◼ Customs duty reduction curtailed Q2 profitability by ~Rs298m. The
total impact for FY25 is estimated at Rs500m-600m, of which the
balance ~Rs300m is expected to carry over to Q3.
◼ Average ticket sizes rose 12% y/y, because of demand for higher-
priced items, primarily wedding-related purchases in H1. In smaller
cities, ticket sizes averaged ~Rs70,000-100,000, while in metropolises
demand was either for daily-wear products ranging from Rs30,000 to
Rs50,000 or for high value jewellery of >Rs200,000.
◼ Store network. The company added three showrooms in Q2 (eight in
H1), incl. 1 COCO and two franchisees. Although fewer franchisees
were added in Q2, growth was driven by primary sales to franchisees and
their secondary sales. The company retains its FY25 expansion target of
18-20 stores, with 4-5 franchisees in the pipeline. 68-70% of these store
additions will be in the East, levering its strong market presence, 15-20%
in the North, and the rest in the South and West.
◼ Sennes aims to position itself as an aspirational yet affordable brand for
the upper middle class. Its stores feature lab-grown diamonds (LGDs)
and leather goods, with perfumes set to be launched in Q3 to enhance
the lifestyle appeal. The focus is on 30-50 cent LGD, as smaller sizes
(under 7-8 cents) offer limited economic benefits due to minimal price
differences with natural diamonds. LGDs also provide slightly higher
margins than natural diamonds. Currently operating six stores, Senco
plans to expand the network to 8-10 by FY25, progressing gradually as
Sennes is still in the investment phase.
◼ Balance sheet. Borrowings rose ~Rs2.4bn q/q, driven by a 4-5% gold
price increase and the inventory build-up for festival season. In Q2
FY25, inventory rose q/q to ~Rs29bn (from ~Rs25.9bn in Q1). Besides,
the company hedged 85% of its inventory in Q2, down from 95% in Q1.
◼ Outlook. Senco expects 18-20% y/y revenue growth in FY25, driven
by 10-12% SSSG and 6-7% store expansion. Gross margins are
projected at 15-16%, with plans to raise the studded mix from current
10-11% to 15% in the near term. Bottom-line growth is estimated at 15-
18% despite a one-time inventory valuation impact.
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q3FY23
Q4FY23
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
Q3FY24
Q4FY24
Q1FY25
Q2FY25
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q3FY23
Q4FY23
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
Q3FY24
Q4FY24
Q1FY25
Q2FY25
Gross margin (%) EBITDA EBITDA margin (RHS)
Q2FY23
Q3FY23
Q4FY23
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
Q3FY24
Q4FY24
Q1FY25
Q2FY25
H1 FY25
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
Fig 12 – 10.5% studded mix, H1 FY25 Fig 13 – Ended H1 with 167 stores
(%) (Nos)
12 11.4 180
167
160 159
11 136
10.5 140
10.0 127 70
66
10 120 112
100 61
9.0 57
9 52
8.0 80
8 60
93 97
40 75
60 70
7
20
6 0
FY23
FY24
FY21
FY22
H1 FY25
H1 FY25
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
Change in estimates
We lower our FY25e/26e revenue 4.2% on average.
Our FY25e/26e PAT is ~7% lower on average due to the customs duty impact.
Valuation
We introduce FY27e and maintain our Buy recommendation at a higher 12-
mth TP of Rs1,401 based on 32x FY27e P/E (earlier Rs1,277, 28x FY26e
P/E). At the CMP, the stock trades at 35.4x/24.6x/18.7x FY25e/FY26e/
FY27e P/E and 19.5x/15.2x/12.7x EV/EBITDA.
Senco’s own stores and franchisees, location advantage in the east, focus on
light-weight jewellery, ability to meet shifts in consumer preferences, just-in-
time inventory, efficient operating model and an eight-decade legacy afford
it the keen edge over competitors.
Risks
◼ More working capital required. Jewellery retailing requires more
working capital. The company’s inability to meet such requirements on
commercially-acceptable terms may curtail its business.
◼ Stricter regulated environment. The jewellery segment is subject to
certain approvals, permits and licenses in the ordinary course of
business. Failure to obtain, renew or comply with such requirements
may curb operations.
◼ Stiff competition. The company operates in highly competitive and
fragmented regions, where competition is based on market trends,
pricing and customer preferences.
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