USA, 1970-1995 Assumption that recession has disturbed the relationship between savings and per

USA suffered recession in 1982 which raised unemployment rate to 9.7% the highest since 1948
YEAR SAVINGS INCOME DUM
1970 61 727.1 0 1. Single regression
1971 68.6 790.2 0 2. to test varieties of hypothses
1972 63.6 855.3 0 3. pinpoint source of difference
1973 89.6 965 0 4. pooling data increases degree of freedom and p
1974 97.6 1054.2 0
1975 104.4 1159.2 0
1976 96.4 1273 0
1977 92.5 1401.4 0
1978 112.6 1580.1 0 YEAR SAVINGS INCOME DUM
1979 130.1 1769.5 0 1970 61 727.1 0
1980 161.8 1973.3 0 1971 68.6 790.2 0
1981 199.1 2200.2 0 1972 63.6 855.3 0
1982 205.5 2347.3 1 1973 89.6 965 0
1983 167 2522.4 1 1974 97.6 1054.2 0
1984 235.7 2810 1 1975 104.4 1159.2 0
1985 206.2 3002 1 1976 96.4 1273 0
1986 196.5 3187.6 1 1977 92.5 1401.4 0
1987 168.4 3363.1 1 1978 112.6 1580.1 0
1988 189.1 3640.8 1 1979 130.1 1769.5 0
1989 187.8 3894.5 1 1980 161.8 1973.3 0
1990 208.7 4166.8 1 1981 199.1 2200.2 0
1991 246.4 4343.7 1
1992 272.6 4613.7 1
1993 214.4 4790.2 1
1994 189.4 5021.7 1
1995 249.3 5320.8 1
ship between savings and personal disposable income

ases degree of freedom and precision

YEAR SAVINGS INCOME DUM

1982 205.5 2347.3 1
1983 167 2522.4 1
1984 235.7 2810 1
1985 206.2 3002 1
1986 196.5 3187.6 1
1987 168.4 3363.1 1
1988 189.1 3640.8 1
1989 187.8 3894.5 1
1990 208.7 4166.8 1
1991 246.4 4343.7 1
1992 272.6 4613.7 1
1993 214.4 4790.2 1
1994 189.4 5021.7 1
1995 249.3 5320.8 1
Table 9.1
Average Salary of Public School Teachers, by state
D1 for west, D2 for north and D3 for south
obs SALARY SPENDING D1 D2 D3
1 19583 3346 1 0 0
2 20263 3114 1 0 0
3 20325 3554 1 0 0
4 26800 4642 1 0 0
5 29470 4669 1 0 0
6 26610 4888 1 0 0
7 30678 5710 1 0 0
8 27170 5536 1 0 0
9 25853 4168 1 0 0
10 24500 3547 1 0 0
11 24274 3159 1 0 0
12 27170 3621 1 0 0
13 30168 3782 1 0 0
14 26525 4247 1 0 0
15 27360 3982 1 0 0
16 21690 3568 1 0 0
17 21974 3155 1 0 0
18 20816 3059 1 0 0
19 18095 2967 1 0 0
20 20939 3285 1 0 0
21 22644 3914 1 0 0
22 24624 4517 0 1 0
23 27186 4349 0 1 0
24 33990 5020 0 1 0
25 23382 3594 0 1 0
26 20627 2821 0 1 0
27 22795 3366 0 1 0
28 21570 2920 0 1 0
29 22080 2980 0 1 0
30 22250 3731 0 1 0
31 20940 2853 0 1 0
32 21800 2533 0 1 0
33 22934 2729 0 1 0
34 18443 2305 0 1 0
35 19538 2642 0 1 0
36 20460 3124 0 1 0
37 21419 2752 0 1 0
38 25160 3429 0 1 0
39 22482 3947 0 0 1
40 20969 2509 0 0 1
41 27224 5440 0 0 1
42 25892 4042 0 0 1
43 22644 3402 0 0 1
44 24640 2829 0 0 1
45 22341 2297 0 0 1
46 25610 2932 0 0 1
47 26015 3705 0 0 1
48 25788 4123 0 0 1
49 29132 3608 0 0 1
50 41480 8349 0 0 1
51 25845 3766 0 0 1
yeart saving gdp d1 dgdp2 yeart before after
1980 6 24 0 0 1980 6.308109 10.64378
1981 7 28 0 0 1981 7.023308 11.35898
1982 8 31 0 0 1982 7.559707 11.89538
1983 9 29 0 0 1983 7.202107 11.53778
1984 8 31 0 0 1984 7.559707 11.89538
1985 7 31 0 0 1985 7.559707 11.89538
1986 7 32 0 0 1986 7.738506 12.07418
1987 9 33 0 0 1987 7.917306 12.25297
1988 8 38 0 0 1988 8.811304 13.14697
1989 9 40 0 0 1989 9.168903 13.50457
1990 9 40 0 0 1990 9.168903 13.50457
1991 12 45 0 0 1991 10.0629 14.39857
1992 12 49 0 0 1992 10.7781 15.11377
1993 10 51 0 0 1993 11.1357 15.47137
1994 12 52 0 0 1994 11.3145 15.65017
1995 13 61 0 0 1995 12.92369 17.25936
1996 12 63 0 0 1996 13.28129 17.61696
1997 12 62 0 0 1997 13.10249 17.43816
1998 13 62 0 0 1998 13.10249 17.43816
1999 12 63 0 0 1999 13.28129 17.61696
2000 15 74 0 0 2000 15.24809 19.58376
2001 16 72 1 72 2001 14.89049 19.22616
2002 19 72 1 72 2002 14.89049 19.22616
2003 23 83 1 83 2003 16.85729 21.19295
2004 27 98 1 98 2004 19.53928 23.87495
2005 28 110 1 110 2005 21.68488 26.02054
2006 31 128 1 128 2006 24.90327 29.23894
2007 36 143 1 143 2007 27.58526 31.92093
2008 33 164 1 164 2008 31.34005 35.67572
2009 34 162 1 162 2009 30.98245 35.31812
2010 38 176 1 176 2010 33.48565 37.82132
2011 43 210 1 210 2011 39.56484 43.9005
 1980 19992000 2011
savings 9.75 28.5

Chart Title
12

10

0
10.6437784
Chart Title
50
1980-19992000-2011
45
40
savings 2.01 6.04
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
80 982 984 986 988 990 992 994 996 998 000 002 004 006 008 010
19 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2

before after
 Table 9.4
US Regrigerator Sales ('000), 1978-1995 (quarterly)
DUR means durable good expenditure
year FRIG DUR D1 D2 D3 D4
19781 1317 252.6 1 0 0 0
19782 1615 272.4 0 1 0 0
19783 1662 270.9 0 0 1 0
19784 1295 273.9 0 0 0 1
19791 1271 268.9 1 0 0 0
19792 1555 262.9 0 1 0 0
19793 1639 270.9 0 0 1 0
19794 1238 263.4 0 0 0 1
19801 1277 260.6 1 0 0 0
19802 1258 231.9 0 1 0 0
19803 1417 242.7 0 0 1 0
19804 1185 248.6 0 0 0 1
19811 1196 258.7 1 0 0 0
19812 1410 248.4 0 1 0 0
19813 1417 255.5 0 0 1 0
19814 919 240.4 0 0 0 1
19821 943 247.7 1 0 0 0
19822 1175 249.1 0 1 0 0
19823 1269 251.8 0 0 1 0
19824 973 262 0 0 0 1
19831 1102 263.3 1 0 0 0
19832 1344 280 0 1 0 0
19833 1641 288.5 0 0 1 0
19834 1225 300.5 0 0 0 1
19841 1429 312.6 1 0 0 0
19842 1699 322.5 0 1 0 0
19843 1749 324.3 0 0 1 0
19844 1117 333.1 0 0 0 1
19851 1242 344.8 1 0 0 0
19852 1684 350.3 0 1 0 0
19853 1764 369.1 0 0 1 0
19854 1328 356.4 0 0 0 1
 Table 9.6
Hypothetical data on
output and total cost
X* = 5500
Total cost Output
($) (units) X-X* D
256 1000 -4500 0
414 2000 -3500 0
634 3000 -2500 0
778 4000 -1500 0
1003 5000 -500 0
1839 6000 500 1
2081 7000 1500 1
2423 8000 2500 1
2734 9000 3500 1
2914 10000 4500 1