INTRODUCTION TO DEMOGRAPHY

DEMOGRAPHY

I. Introduction.

The term demography was first used by Guillard in 1855, while the beginning
of demography traced from John Graunt, who is the father of “Demography”.
He wrote an essay on the natural and political observations made upon the
bills of mortality in 1662. He presented what is known as analysis approach
while Maltus presented what is known as problem approach. The
development of demography may be seen in the last century while its history
may be traced since about three centuries back. Today demography is
considered only with the enumeration of population but later on it began to
study population from empirical statistical and mathematical aspects.

Today it studies the size, composition and distribution of population. The size
includes the population of a place in different periods. The composition and
distribution includes measurable characteristics of population like age, sex,
marital status, education, religion, caste and health etc.

The characteristics of population are always changing. Distribution may be

studied according to communities, religious groups or fields of population.
Demography studies the patterns and causes of the changes in size,
composition and distribution of population. It studies the influence of these
changes upon different aspects of society. It studies the birth, mortality,
marriage, migration and urbanization etc.

1.1. Concepts

1. Demography

The term,” Demography”, is derived from Greek words ‘Demos’ which means
‘the people’ and ‘Graphein’ which means ‘to draw or write’. Thus
demography means to draw or write about people.
Demography is the scientific study of human population involving the
statistical measurement of the size, growth and the diminution of the
number of the people, the proportion of living being born or dying within the
same area or region and the related function of fertility, mortality and
marriage. It is therefore the science of populations. Demographers seek to
understand population dynamics by investigating three main demographic
processes: birth, migration, and aging (including death).

According to Von Maoyer Demography is the numerical analysis of the state

and movement of population inclusive of census enumeration and
registration of vital process and of whatever qualitative analysis can be
made the state and movement of population on the basis of fundamental
census and registration data.

For the others, demography is the branch of social sciences concerned with
the study of human populations, their structure and change (through births,
deaths, and migration), and their relationship with the natural environment
and with social and economic change. Demographic indicators could include
population size, population growth rate, crude birth rate, crude death rate,
total fertility rate, life expectancy and infant mortality. As well, it would
include estimated and projected gender and age distributions according to
medium, high, low and constant fertility variants. In short, demographic
changes affect all areas of human activity: economic, social, cultural and
political.

Those who follow this field of social science believe demographics can play a
crucial role in understanding past trends and in preparing for future
developments and policies. Furthermore, they believe that understanding
demographic developments can provide important explanations of observed
economic and social trends. Consequently, demography becomes an
important ingredient in public policy analysis and development.
The importance of demography lies in its contribution to helping
government and society better prepare to deal for the issues and
demands of population growth, aging and migration. The statistics and
predictions resulting from demographic studies can, for example, aid in the
development of adequate school systems, estimate the required funding for senior
services and develop workable healthcare systems. A wide variety of social
outcomes are impacted by demographic processes and distributions

Scope and subject matter of demography:

The following are the scope of Demography:

Size of population:
The number of people dwelling in a given area at a given time, its
comparison with previous period and the future projection are import and
element of the size of population. The causes of change, like fertility,
morality and migration are analyzed with the use of biological, social,
economic and cultural variables.

Composition of population:

Composition of population covers all measurable characteristics of the

people who form a given population. The most widely used characteristics
are age and sex, rural and urban residence marital status, occupation,
education, religion etc. are some other characteristics in the composition of
population.

Distribution of population:
Under this we study how population are distributed in the world is rural and
urban distribution of people.

Labor Force
Labor force is an important field of economic study and such labor force falls
into two classes such as - (i) economically active labor force which include
employed and involuntarily unemployed labor. (ii) Economically dependent
or inactive labor force which includes houses wives, students fixed income
recipients etc.:-

Population Policy
A proper population policy has become an inevitable adjunct of population
since the socioeconomic development of a country.

Nature of demography

1. It employs scientific study and method.

2. The observations are presented systematically.
3. Demography makes factual study of population census as the principle
method of study.
4. Demography defines causes and effect relation to events social
reaction and in social facts.
5. Demography can predict about social relations events etc.

Importance of demography:

Demography presents population data in a systematic manner. Its

importance can be felt in the manner below.

Political:
The factual demography gives the information the rate by which the number
of vote is increasing. This will help in identifying the voters and by which the
arrangement is done for conducting elections.

Economic:
 It helps in farming economic progress which can contribute to
economic development.
 The Assessment of economic development with rate of growth in
population can be made.
 It helps to court the growth and modernization of economy.
  It focuses on the dimension of unemployment.
 Demography give the information of per capita income and production.

Economic planning:

With the help of population figure alone the planning authorities would be
able to allocate resources to the various section of the economy.

2. Medical Demography

Medical demography is the application of demographic concepts, models,

and techniques to the analysis of the dynamics of morbidity, disability, and
mortality.

1.2. Sources of demographic data

Population censuses, registers, and surveys are the primary sources of

demographic data, including information about the size, composition, and
characteristics of a population or population subgroups. A census is an
enumeration of all households in a well-defined territory at a given point in
time. Population registers are systems of continuous registration, maintained
by certain countries, to keep demographic records of individuals. Surveys are
used to collect detailed data on a particular subject from a sample or subset
of the population. All three sources of data, censuses, registers, and surveys
are often used to monitor changes in population size and composition.

1. The population census

The source of the word "census" is the Latin verb 'censere', which means
contrary to what's expected, not 'to count' but rather 'to assess', or in a term
closer to the world of statistics, 'to estimate' (The Encyclopedia Americana,
1951). As strange as it may sound, despite the great progress made in this
field, there is no practical method for determining accurately and completely
the size and characteristics of any large population. The census, therefore,
proves only an agreed-upon estimate, but it is a good estimate.
The Population Census provides the fullest and most reliable picture of
the country's population and its characteristics at the "Census Day" (a
particular point in time to which the census relates). In the census, data is
collected at a specified time from the entire population; in contrast to
other surveys, in which information is collected from only a small part of the
residents, and from that conclusions are reached regarding the general
population.

The Population Census is unique in that it provides the possibility of

examining small and special population groups, and acquiring information on
small geographic units (localities, neighborhoods). In many countries, census
is conducted every decade.

A population census, by the definition customary today, is a complete

process of collection, reception, assessment, analysis, publication and
distribution of demographic, economic and social data, which relate, at a
given moment in time, to all the residents of a country or of a well-defined
partial geographic area; as reflected in the Population and Housing Censuses
Handbook of the UN, 1992.

Stages of expediting the census

Conducting a census is a most complex undertaking, and therefore
meticulous planning of each detail is required in the census process - in the
methodological, contents and technological fields, as well as the
organizational and administrative aspects. Great importance and a special
emphasis are placed on planning and prior preparation when planning the
execution of a census, preparation that includes many tests and repeated
trials.
Census activities can be divided into three main stages:

1. The planning stage.

2. The stage of data collection.

3. The stage of producing the results.

The census historical perspective

Censuses were held in the ancient world and are held today in most
countries of the modern world, but their goals then and today are totally
different.

In the ancient world censuses were held for purposes of taxation, military
conscription, and economic and class control of the social structure. The
main purpose of these censuses was to strengthen the central government.

In modern, democratic countries censuses are held whose main purpose

is to gather information that is vital for fulfilling the role and obligations of
the country, to provide services to the population.

Salient features of a population census

The basic principles that characterize the census data, as differentiated from
other statistical estimates, are

a. Individualism

A census implies that each individual is separately, but only once,

enumerated, and that some important characteristics of each person are
separately recorded. These include sex, age, marital status, religion, literacy
and educational attainment, economic activity occupation, etc.

b. Universality

The census covers a precisely defined territory, such as the entire country or
a well-defined part of it.

c. Simultaneity

A reference period is determined for enumeration and the entire population

is counted with reference to that point of time (census day)

d. Periodicity
A census is taken at regular intervals. In several countries, interval between
two successive censuses is ten years.

Uses of Census Data

Every country needs basic information on its residents for purposes of

planning, development and improvement of the residents' quality of life.
Good planning is based on reliable, up-to-date, accurate and detailed
information on the state of the society in the country. This information
makes it possible to plan better services, improve the quality of life and
solve existing problems. Statistical information, which serves as the basis for
constructing planning forecasts, is essential for the democratic process since
it enables the citizens to examine the decisions made by the government
and local authorities, and decide whether they serve the public they are
meant to help. For these reasons official statistics are collected and
published in all countries, world-wide. Thus, for example, while planning a
road system, the planners use information regarding the quantity of people
and number of vehicles who are likely to use the road; for if not, the
advantages of constructing the road may not justify its cost. Similarly, when
planning a school system, there is a need for a forecast of the number of
pupils who are likely to need schools, in order to ensure that they will be
built in locations with an appropriate number of pupils.

The census is a special, wide-range activity, which takes place once a decade
in the entire country. Its purpose is to gather information about the general
population, in order to present a full and reliable picture of the population in
the country - its housing conditions and demographic, social and economic
characteristics. The information collected includes data on age, gender,
country of origin, year of immigration, marital status, housing conditions,
marriage, number of children, education……
The population census is the most detailed information source on the
population at the level of small localities, neighborhoods in cities and small
groups in the population. The data acquired forms a basis of information that
is available to public and private elements, at the national and local level, for
purposes of decision-making in a variety of areas of the life of residents of
the country.

2. Administrative records

Administrative records are an important source of information for social

science research. For many years, demographers have used information
from birth and death certificates to analyze various public health trends.
Today, administrative data is becoming increasingly common in research
about child care and early education policy. These data often are a relatively
cost-effective way to learn more about all of the individuals and families
using a particular public service, but they do have some important
limitations.

Advantages of administrative data

 Administrative data make possible analyses at the state and local

levels that are rarely possible using national survey data
 Such data often contain detailed, accurate measures of participation in
various social programs. They typically include large numbers of cases,
making possible many different types of analyses
 At the state level, such data provide effective ways for assessing state-
specific programs and can be useful for several forms of program
evaluation.
 It is often less expensive than other methods of data collection

Limitations of administrative data

Administrative data are collected to manage services and comply with

government reporting regulations. Because the original purpose of the data
is not research, this presents several challenges.
  The administrative data only describe the families using a service and
provide no information about similar families who do not use a service
 The potential observation period for any subject being studied (e.g., a
person, a family, a child care program) is limited to the period of time
that the subject is using the service for which the data are being
collected
 Only those services that are publicly funded generally are described in
the administrative data. In most states, it would be impossible to rely
on subsidy data to learn about non-subsidized forms of child care being
used to augment child care that is subsidized
 Many variables used in administrative data are not updated regularly,
so it is important to learn how and when each variable is collected. For
instance, an "earnings" variable in administrative data for subsidized
child care generally is entered at the time that eligibility is determined
and then updated when eligibility is predetermined. There is no way to
know, using administrative data alone, whether the "earnings" amount
in the data is a family's earnings in the months between eligibility
determination and redetermination
 Important variables needed for a particular research study may not be
collected in administrative data

Researchers interested in using administrative data for the purpose of

research should expect to invest considerable time learning about the details
of the administrative data system, the specific data elements being used, the
data entry process and standards, and changes in the data system and data
definitions over time. It also takes time to transform administrative data into
research datasets that can be used in statistical analyses.

3. Vital registration system.

Vital or civil registration is the system by which a government records the

vital events of its citizens and residents. Vital registration creates legal
documents which may be used to establish and protect the civil rights of
individuals, as well as providing a source of data which may be compiled to
give vital statistics.

In contrast to censuses, which collect information on every member of a

population at a single point in time, vital registration systems collect
information on individuals as demographic events occur. Many vital
registration systems record births, deaths, foetal deaths, marriages, divorces
and adoptions, as well as recording information on the individual who
experiences the event, such as age, religion, occupation etc. These data are
then compiled into vital statistics bulletins.

Vital statistics are statistics on principal events in the life of an individual.

They usually are gathered at the time of an event such as birth, marriage,
the dissolution of a marriage, and death. Vital statistics are commonly
compiled from records of vital events registered through offices that are
organized as part of a vital registration system.

Vital registration systems are generally organized units of government. They

presuppose a well-established civil administrative organization with trained
officials and, most usually, local offices as well as a central one. Local offices
are primarily responsible for the collection of information, while both local
and central offices process the information for statistical purposes. Local
offices are generally responsible for maintaining a legally valid record of the
vital events. Thus they are useful to the inhabitants of the population when it
becomes necessary to prove a vital event such as birth, nationality, descent,
or relationship by marriage. The information-processing offices that provide
vital statistics in summary form are charged with this responsibility in the
interest of the formation of public policy.

The most accurate vital statistics are found in countries that are in an
advanced state of economic development; in many of the less developed
countries vital registration is still rudimentary, partial, or inaccurate. In order
to be complete and reliable, vital registration must be compulsory, i.e., the
law must place an obligation on defined classes of persons to notify the
registering official of the occurrence of a vital event. This is usually easiest in
the case of marriage, which in most countries involves a ceremony before an
official of the state or the church, who will record the event, which confers a
new status on the spouses. In those countries in which consensual unions are
common, however, marriage statistics may give an incomplete count of the
number of women who are exposed to a relatively high risk of pregnancy.
Furthermore, death registration may be easier to enforce than birth
registration, since the disposal of a human body is normally subject to police
or sanitary regulations, which require a certificate of registration of death to
be produced before the body can be disposed of.

History of vital registration.

Vital registration was often preceded by parochial registration of baptisms,

burials, and marriages. Parochial registration, however, tends to be
incomplete, particularly in the case of births, since not all children who are
born are baptized; in particular, the practice relating to the registration of
babies who die before baptism may vary in different parishes. In
Scandinavia, the work of registration is still carried out by the clergy,
although they act as agents of the state.

The oldest systems of vital registration are found in the Scandinavian

countries: Finland started in 1628 and Denmark in 1646, Norway and
Sweden following in 1685 and 1686 respectively. In America, the General
Court in Boston enacted a registration law for the colony of Massachusetts in
1639 which stated “that there be records kept … of the days of every
marriage, birth and death of every person within this jurisdiction.” In 1644 an
explicit obligation was placed on “all parents, masters of servants, executors
and administrators ... to bring unto the clerk of the writs the names of such
belonging to them, as shall either be born or die.” The law was tightened in
1692, when penalty clauses for failure to register were reinforced, but the
system remained incomplete until the nineteenth century.

In England and Wales parochial registration of baptisms and burials began as

early as 1538. John Graunt, who is generally considered the father of modern
demography, utilized these data in his work Natural and Political
Observations Made Upon the Bills of Mortality, which was first published in
1662. An act passed in 1694 provided for the registration of births and
deaths throughout the country, but it was in force for only ten years and few
of the returns made under its provisions have been located. Estimates of
population in England and Wales in the eighteenth century have to be based
on the parochial registers, since the system of civil registration was not
established until 1836. Even then, the Births and Deaths Registration Act did
not lay down any penalties for failure to comply with its provision, an
omission that was not repaired until 1874.

In other European countries vital registration was gradually introduced

throughout the nineteenth century, and was complete in most areas by the
beginning of the twentieth century. In some states, however, compulsory
and complete registration was introduced very much later; in Poland, for
example, it was not introduced until 1946. In Russia, vital registration was in
the hands of the ecclesiastical authorities before the revolution and was only
transferred to the civil power afterwards. A registration area was built up,
and by 1926 it was working with reasonable efficiency in European Russia. It
has gradually been extended to cover the rest of the Soviet Union.

Outside Europe, North America, and Australia, registration is more recent.

Japan, the most industrialized and developed country of Asia, introduced a
modern registration law in 1898, although household registers had been kept
before that date. In India and Pakistan no complete and compulsory system
of vital registration exists at present, although partial and incomplete
systems operate in a number of areas. In Africa the position is even less
satisfactory. Birth and death registration in colonial days was applied only to
the population of European, and sometimes to that of Asian, origin; for the
indigenous African population, registration operated in a few towns at the
most and was often of questionable accuracy. In Latin America, although
registration became compulsory in most areas in the nineteenth century, the
systems were frequently lacking in accuracy and left much to be desired in
other respects.

In the United States vital registration developed slowly. As is the case in

most federal countries, the responsibility for vital registration lies with the
individual states and not with the federal government. By 1859 eight states
had established registration systems, and the progress was resumed after
the Civil War. The federal government’s influence made itself felt after 1902,
when the Bureau of the Census was established as a permanent
organization. In 1903 Congress passed a law stressing the importance of a
unified system of registration, and model registration laws were drafted for
the guidance of individual states. A death registration area and later a birth
registration area were set up, admission to which depended upon the
achievement of a certain degree of completeness of registration.

Administration of vital registration.

Systems of vital registration are normally administered through a network of

local registration offices, each of which is responsible for a well-defined local
area. It is often convenient to have the boundary of the registration district
coincide with that of a local government unit. The onus of informing the
registrar of the occurrence of a vital event is placed by law on a definite
informant or a substitute when the informant is not available. In the case of
births, the legal informant is normally the parent, although in a few countries
of which the United States is the outstanding example responsibility rests
with the attendant at the birth. Obviously, this arrangement is possible only
when the vast majority of births are medically attended; and, on the whole,
registration by the parent is preferred. However, the completeness of birth
registration depends on other factors than the identity of the informant.

In the case of a death, the obligation to register again most frequently

devolves upon a relative, or, failing him, a person present at the death. In
the United States and New Zealand this responsibility, however, devolves
upon the undertaker who arranges for the funeral. In many of the more
developed countries, the cause of death must also be stated at registration;
this responsibility usually has to be carried out by a medical practitioner.
Thus, in England and Wales the medical certificate of death is given by the
doctor who attended the deceased before death or (in cases of sudden
death) by the pathologist who conducted the autopsy. Either of these
persons can notify the registrar of the death, but the obligation to register it
rests with the next of kin. In the case of marriages the informants are
normally the groom and bride, although in some areas it is the person
solemnizing the marriage who actually registers it.

The time allowed for registration in different countries varies; it is normally

shorter for a death than a birth. As an extreme example, the Cuban law (as
of 1950) required a death to be registered immediately, but a birth only had
to be registered within a year of its occurrence. In England and Wales five
days are allowed for a death registration, but 42 days for the registration of
births.

The form in which vital events are registered varies from country to country.
As the registration system serves as the legal record of the vital event, a
certificate of registration is normally issued to each informant. This may
carry all the information obtained at registration, but more frequently some
of the material collected is used for statistical purposes only and does not
appear on the certificate. The minimum information collected at a birth is
normally the date and place of its occurrence, the sex of the child, and the
name of its father (in the case of a legitimate birth). In some vital statistics
systems, however, a good deal of additional information is collected, e.g.,
the age of the mother, the occupation or age of the father, the length of the
parents’ marriage, how many brothers and sisters the child has, and in some
cases its weight at birth. For death registration, the name, age, and sex of
the deceased person, together with the date and place of death, constitute
the minimum amount of information desirable. In many vital statistics
systems information is sought regarding the decedent’s marital status,
occupation, and cause of death. The minimum information normally required
when a marriage is registered is the marital condition of the bride and groom
and their ages, although often details about their occupations and
sometimes the occupations of their parents are also included.

There are a number of common difficulties connected with vital registration

and vital statistics. In the case of death registration, there have been
periodical revisions of the International List of Causes of Death. These
revisions have affected the comparability of cause-specific death rates over
time. Moreover, the treatment of multiple causes of death may differ in
different countries, although the World Health Organization has recently
made recommendations, endorsed by the Statistical Commission of the UN,
for the adoption of a uniform International Medical Certificate of Death.

Another difficulty lies in the definition of a live birth and in the classification
of stillbirths or fetal deaths. Thus, in Belgium a child born alive but dying
before registration (that is, within three days of birth) is registered as
stillborn. In Colombia, stillbirths are not registerable; in Cuba, survival for at
least one day is required before a birth can be registered as live. In Great
Britain any child born after the twenty-eighth week of pregnancy that at any
time after being expelled from its mother drew breath or showed any sign of
life is regarded as live born. Stillbirth or fetal death rates calculated in
accordance with different definitions therefore cannot be comparable.
4. Sample Survey

A sample survey is a study that obtains data from a subset of a population,

in order to estimate population attributes.

Surveys on the other hand may provide information on both stocks and
flows. Unlike Censuses, surveys involve taking a sample of the population
under investigation, rather than visiting or contacting every household. The
advantage of sampling is that it reduces costs (think how much cheaper it is
to visit 3,000 people than it is to visit 300 millions). However, its main
drawback is that it introduces sampling error. We cannot be sure of the
values we obtain through sampling: if we were to draw multiple samples of
the same population, each sample would yield slightly different results.

Surveys come in various forms. Some surveys are cross-sectional, i.e., they
only attempt to interview a sample of respondents once. Such cross-
sectional surveys generally provide only data on stocks. Other surveys
however are longitudinal, i.e., that they repeatedly re-interview the same
respondents and aim to assess change. Such surveys may provide valuable
information on flows. For example, a longitudinal survey may enroll a sample
of newborns and aim to assess their health repeatedly over the first 5 years
of life. Such a survey would provide valuable information on an important
flow: the mortality of children.