GGRMD31: Global Environmental Challenges
Unit I: Land Related Issues
1)Population Explosion
2)Biodiversity Loss
3)Land Degradation (Soil & Water) & Desertification
4)Solid Waste
5)Food & Water Insecurity
6)Energy Crises
7)Forced Migration
8)Infectious Disease and Pandemic
Key Takeaways of Population Explosion
• Concept/Definition
• Demographic Transition Theory
• Causes
• Impacts
• Solutions
• Conclusion
Year In
billion
1804 1
1927 123 2
1959 32 3
1974 15 4
1986 12 5
1997 11 6
2009 12 7
2021 12 8
2036 15 9
2060 24 10
Concept of Population Explosion
• refers to the unprecedented, sudden, drastic, and rapid rise in the size of the human
population (number of individuals within a species), especially in a short period of
time.
• It is an unchecked growth of human population caused as a result of increased birth
rate, decreased infant mortality rate, and improved life expectancy. Typically occurs
when birth rates far exceed death rates, leading to a sharp rise in the number of
people in a given area or globally.
• It is more prominent in under-developed and developing countries than in developed
countries due to healthcare and sanitation weakness.
Real Determinants of Population Explosion
Factors Affecting Basic Components of
Population Change
Fertility, Mortality & Migration
1929 – W. S. Thompson
1945 – Frank W. Notestein
Case study – Europe, America & Australia
Population growth rate
Average exponential rate of growth of the population over a given period.
It is calculated as ln(P2/P1)/n where P1 and P2 are the populations on 1 January of subsequent years, and n is the length of the period
between t1 and t2 (n=1 for annual data). It is expressed as a percentage.
Natural rate of Increase/Rate of Natural Change - Crude birth rate - crude death rate
Represents the portion of population growth (or decline) determined exclusively by births and deaths.
It is expressed as number of births per 1,000 population.
Crude birth rate/Fertility
Number of births over a given period divided by the person-years lived by the population over that period.
It is expressed as number of births per 1,000 population.
Crude death rate/Mortality
-Number of deaths over a given period divided by the person-years lived by the population over that period.
It is expressed as number of deaths per 1,000 population.
Child dependency ratio
The ratio of the population under age x1 (e.g., 0-24) to the number of persons of working age x1-x2 (e.g., 25-64). It is expressed as number
of dependants per 100 persons of working age (e.g., 25-64). Data are presented for different age categories
Old dependency ratio
The ratio of the population aged x2 and over (e.g., 65+) to the number of persons of working age x1-x2 (e.g., 25-64). It is expressed as
number of dependants per 100 persons of working age (e.g., 25-64). Data are presented for different age categories.
Total dependency ratio
The ratio of the sum of the population under age x1 (e.g., 0-24) and that aged x2 and over (e.g., 65+) to the number of persons of working
age x1-x2 (e.g., 25-64). It is expressed as number of dependants per 100 persons of working age (e.g., 25-64). Data are presented for
Key Factors Contributing to Population Explosion:
• Real Determinants of Population Explosion
• Factors Affecting Basic Components of Population Change: Fertility,
Mortality & Migration
1. Determinants of Fertility
a) Biological Determinants
b) Demographic Determinants
c) Social Determinants
d) Economic Determinants
2. Determinants of Mortality
3. Determinants of Migration
Determinants of Fertility - Attributes shaping fertility behaviour; family size influenced by personal factors
Biological Determinants
• Race:
• Generates fertility differences among groups.
• Hard to isolate due to intermingling and environmental factors.
• Example: Brazil – whites, coloured, yellow, blacks show varying fertility.
• Fecundity:
• Fertility potential of women; genetic fertility of men.
• Female reproductive span: 14–44 years (puberty to menopause).
• Male fertility can occur from ~8 years but rarely ceases.
• Subdued as determinant unless sterility occurs.
• Health:
• Physical and mental health influence fertility indirectly.
• Poor hygiene → sterility; poor health → high mortality → psychological push for larger families.
• Good medical facilities → low mortality → adoption of small family norms → low fertility.
Demographic Determinants
• Age Composition
• Proportion in reproductive age → directly affects birth rate.
• Young populations (Asia, Africa, Latin America) → higher fertility, faster growth.
• Duration of Marriage
• Longer marriage duration → higher fertility.
• Early marriages (e.g., India) → positive correlation between fertility & marriage span.
• Sex Composition (Sex Ratio)
• Balanced ratio → normal fertility.
• Unbalanced ratio (e.g., male-in-migrants urban centres in India) → low fertility.
• Degree of Urbanisation
• Urban areas → low birth rates compared to rural areas.
• requirements of urban living are very much different form those of rural life.
• Causes: lifestyle, socio-economic factors, ethos favouring small families.
• Female Work Participation
• Negative correlation: higher work participation → lower fertility.
• Reasons:
• Increased responsibilities (esp. where domestic help from spouse is lacking).
• Greater social & economic awareness.
• Type of work matters → family-based or part-time jobs cause less incompatibility. Example: Federici (1978) →
differences in fertility between southern agricultural Italy & northern industrial Italy.
Social Determinants (Socio-Cultural)
▪ While the desire to have sex may be a biological necessity the desire to have a child is more a social necessity. It is in this context that the
social determinants of human fertility become very significant. That is why the list of social determinants is much longer
▪ Religion
▪ Influences mental attitude toward family size & birth control.
▪ Islam → strongest opposition to deliberate fertility control.
▪ India: Muslims > Hindus in birth rates (Kingsley Davis, 1951).
▪ West: Roman Catholics > Protestants (due to family size norms & birth control practices).
▪ Ethnic Structure / Minority Status
▪ Minority groups → may show higher fertility.
▪ Reason: sense of discrimination → desire to strengthen group’s demographic size.
▪ Examples: Catholics as minorities (Van Heck, 1956; Day, 1986).
▪ Indian context: similar tendencies among religious/ethnic minorities.
▪ Education: Inverse correlation between education & fertility. social & economic awareness, smaller families. Change in mental attitudes
towards family responsibility.
▪ Girls’ education has far-reaching impact. Critical level: ~10 years schooling in India.
▪ Data (India – NSS, 1964):
▪ 12 years education → 2 children
▪ 8 years → 5 children
▪ Illiterate/5 years → 6.6 children
▪ Data (USA – Beaujeu-Garnier, 1976):
▪ University 4 years → 1.86 children
▪ 7–8 years schooling → 3.06 children
▪ No schooling → 4.82 children
▪ Age at Marriage
▪ Inverse correlation: lower age at marriage → higher fertility.
▪ India: Birth rate can be reduced by one-third if women marry after 19 years.
▪ Operates via duration of marriage.
▪ Traditions & Customs (Marital/Sexual Life)
▪ Loose marital ties/liberal sexual behaviour → low fertility (venereal diseases).
▪ Polygamy & polyandry → reduce fecundity.
▪ Customs reducing fertility:
▪ Prolonged breastfeeding
▪ Restrictions on cohabitation after childbirth
▪ Sexual taboos during suckling/purification
▪ Primacy of Individuals in Family
▪ Status of man, woman, child influences family size.
▪ Higher female status → lower fertility.
▪ Islamic societies: higher fertility due to low female status.
▪ Rising cost & care of children → promotes small family norms.
▪ Children may themselves encourage parents toward small families.
▪ Attitudes towards Family Planning
▪ Historical measures:
▪ Preventive: celibacy, delayed marriage, widow remarriage restrictions.
▪ Corrective: abortions, infanticide (Japan, India, China).
▪ Modern measures: mechanical & chemical contraception.
▪ Fertility differentials across caste/religion (e.g., SCs, STs, Hindus, Muslims in India).
▪ Desire for a Son
▪ Universal desire, but stronger in India.
▪ Social customs: sons perform last rites, provide old-age support.
▪ Prejudice against parents living with daughters → strong son preference → higher fertility.
▪ Government Policies
▪ State interventions shape fertility.
▪ Examples: Japan → abortion legalized post-WWII → lower fertility.
▪ China (One-Child Policy) → birth rate fell to 11.7% (1991–2001).
Economic Determinants
• Income Level
• Most prominent economic determinant.
• Inverse relationship: Higher income → smaller family size.
• Group-wise trend:
• Low-income families:
• Children = economic assets (help in work, augment income).
• Minimum restrictions on family size.
• Middle-income families:
• Most ambitious; strong gap between desired vs. actual income.
• Strictest family size control (aspiration for better quality of life).
• High-income families:
• Can afford larger families, but still prefer smaller families for lifestyle reasons.
• Standard of Living
• Directly linked to income.
• Global pattern: poorest = high birth rates, richest = low birth rates.
Determinants of Mortality
• Endogenetic Factors (Biological): Internal causes:
• Circulatory diseases, Cancer, Infant mortality
• Exogenetic Factors (Environmental): External causes:
• Infections, Climate extremes, Poor sanitation
Spatial & Temporal Variations in Mortality: changes in the mortality patterns of population, through time, by far, constitute the most significant aspect of demographic transition.
Different regions are at different stages of Socio-economic & technological background that determines causes of death.
•Less developed countries: infectious & nutritional diseases.
•Developed countries: degenerative diseases (e.g., cancer, heart disease).
Urban–Rural Differences: development contrast decide health infra access
Urbanization and Mortality Transition
• High urban death due to rural-urban migration & poor adaptation
• Improved medical care.
• Urban mortality may again rise due to work/occupational stress, health issues related with congestion, pollution etc.
• Less developed countries: Urban < Rural mortality (better facilities, income, education).
Over time, mortality declines due to: Medical advancement, Improved sanitation, Better nutrition intake & Health awareness
Sex Differentials in Mortality
• Females live longer than males (higher life expectancy).
• Male mortality > Female mortality in most countries.
• Exceptions: In some less developed countries, female mortality higher due to: Malnutrition, Maternal mortality, Gender discrimination
Age and Mortality
• Mortality low in middle childhood, rises in old age. Diseases vary with age: Old age: cancer, heart disease. Young age: infections, respiratory diseases.
Economic Influences
• Higher Income → better diet & healthcare → lower mortality
• wide income gap has proportional relation with large mortality gap.
• Type of economy:
• Industrial → pollution, accidents (higher mortality) vs Agricultural → healthier environment (lower mortality).
Determinants of Migration
• Push & Pull Factors at Regional Level
Impact of Population Explosion
• Tauber, 1970 – implies shakening of PR equilibrium due to mounting strain of
population
• PopulationArea > Resource Carrying CapacityArea = Increased Population Pressure due to
elevated or mounting needs for survival & maintaining quality & standard of living
• Given piece of land can support only a given number of inhabitants under a given set of
technical, economic, social & cultural conditions without causing any deterioration of
land.
It exerts a multi-dimensional impact on society and environment:
❑ Reduced Per Capita Income due to Rising Dependency Ratio & unemployment
❑ Overexploitation of Natural Resources for maintain living standard
❑ Industrialization & transportation will lead to pollution, global warming, biodiversity loss, deforestation etc.
❑ Settlement expansion facilitated by transportation will lead to overcrowding, housing shortage, high rise building
development, traffic congestion, slum development at urban outskirt, pollution, global warming, disaster at
flood/landslide prone area etc.
❑ Strain of educational & health institutions
❑ Increase in poverty and crime rates due to rich-poor regional/population disparity/inequality.
❑ Social Unrest - Protests and instability due to unemployment and inequality
Spread of diseases: Dense populations foster epidemics.
Malnutrition: Food scarcity and unequal distribution.
Poor sanitation: Inadequate waste disposal and clean water access
Solution of Population Explosion
• Awareness about problems & issues related to population explosion will
lead to family planning by the human population itself
• Medical Advancement & accessibility by the region/group/age will lead
Improvement in life-expectancy, survival rate, infectious disease control etc.
which will eventually lead to controlled birth rates.
• Female empowerment employment & Late Age Marriage will also
downgrade fertility span
• Enforce legal frameworks supporting family planning, marriage age, and
child welfare.
• Strict implementation to prevent early marriage and child labor through
effective enforcement.
The Social and Sociological Consequences of China's One-Child Policy
(2021): by Yong Cai, and Wang Feng
• "…in the decade prior to the one-child policy (1977-2015), fertility in
China had been declining at an unprecedented pace…Mass mobilization
with high-pressure tactics, coupled with delivery of effective
contraceptives, led to a fertility reduction of 50% in just eight short years,
from 5.8 children per woman in 1970 to 2.8 in 1977, 2015 – 1.67."