Probability
and
Statistical CH.4 Probability and Counting Rules
Methods Introduced by: Dr. Samy Affan
(BAS201)
Chapter 4 4.3 The Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability
➢ Definition: When the outcome or occurrence of the first event affects the outcome or
occurrence of the second event in such a way that the probability is changed, the events
are said to be dependent events.
➢ Examples
• Selecting a ball from an urn, not replacing it, and then selecting a second ball.
• Having high grades and getting a scholarship
• Parking in a no-parking zone and getting a parking ticket
➢ The conditional probability:
• Used when an event B in relation to an event A.
• denoted by P(B|A)
• P(B|A) means the probability that event B occurs given that event A has already occurred.
Probability and Statistical Methods Dr. Samy Affan 2
Chapter 4 4.3 The Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability
➢ Multiplication Rule 2
When two events are dependent, the probability of both occurring is
𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 ∙ 𝑃(𝐵 | 𝐴)
i.e.
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 ∙ 𝑃(𝐵 | 𝐴)
Probability and Statistical Methods Dr. Samy Affan 3
Chapter 4 4.3 The Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability
Example 4–28 Overqualified Workers
In a recent survey, 33% of the respondents said that they feel that they are overqualified
(𝑂) for their present job. Of these, 24% said that they were looking for a new job 𝐽 . If a
person is selected at random, find the probability that the person feels that he or she is
overqualified and is also looking for a new job..
Solution
𝑃 𝑂 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐽 = 𝑃 𝑂 ∙ 𝑃 𝐽|𝑂 = 0.33 0.24 ≈ 0.079 = 7.9%
There is about a 7.9% probability that the person feels that he or she is overqualified and is
also looking for a new job.
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Chapter 4 4.3 The Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability
Example 4–29 Homeowner’s and Automobile Insurance
World Wide Insurance Company found that 53% of the residents of a city had homeowner’s
insurance (H) with the company. Of these clients, 27% also had automobile insurance (A) with the
company. If a resident is selected at random, find the probability that the resident has both
homeowner’s and automobile insurance with World Wide Insurance Company.
Solution
𝑃 𝐻 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴 = 𝑃 𝐻 ⋅ 𝑃 𝐴|𝐻 = 0.53 0.27 = 0.1431 ≈ 0.143 = 14.3%
There is about a 14.3% probability that a resident has both homeowner’s and automobile
insurance with World Wide Insurance Company.
Probability and Statistical Methods Dr. Samy Affan 5
Chapter 4 4.3 The Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability
Example 4–31 Selecting Colored Balls
Box 1 contains 2 red balls and 1 blue ball. Box 2 contains 3 blue balls and 1 red ball. A
coin is tossed. If it falls heads up, box 1 is selected and a ball is drawn. If it falls tails up,
box 2 is selected and a ball is drawn. Find the probability of selecting a red ball.
Solution
Using the Rule
𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 ∙ 𝑃(𝐵 | 𝐴)
for each outcome byTree Diagram
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Chapter 4 4.3 The Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability
Finally, a red ball can be selected from either box 1 or box 2 so 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑) = 2/6 + 1/8 = 11/24.
Probability and Statistical Methods Dr. Samy Affan 7
Chapter 4 4.3 The Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability
➢ Conditional Probability
The conditional probability of an event B in relationship to an event A was defined as the
probability that event B occurs after event A has already occurred.
➢ Formula for Conditional Probability
𝑃 𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴
𝑃(𝐵 | 𝐴) =
𝑃 𝐴
i.e.
𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴)
𝑃(𝐵 | 𝐴) =
𝑃 𝐴
Probability and Statistical Methods Dr. Samy Affan 8
Chapter 4 4.3 The Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability
EXAMPLE 4–32 Selecting Colored Chips
A box contains black chips and white chips. A person selects two chips without replacement. If
15
the probability of selecting a black chip and a white chip is and the probability of selecting a
56
3
black chip on the first draw is Find the probability of selecting the white chip on the second
.
8
draw, given that the first chip selected was a black chip.
Solution
Let 𝐵 = 𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑝 , 𝑊 = 𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑒 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑝.
Then the probability of selecting a white chip on the second draw given that the first chip selected
was black is
𝑃 𝑊 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 15ൗ 15 8 5
𝑃(𝑊 | 𝐵) = = 56 = ⋅ = ≈ 0.714
𝑃 𝐵 3ൗ8 56 3 7
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Chapter 4 4.3 The Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability
EXAMPLE 4–33 Parking Tickets
The probability that Sam parks in a no-parking zone and gets a parking ticket is 0.06, and the
probability that Sam cannot find a legal parking space and has to park in the no-parking zone is
0.20. On Tuesday, Sam arrives at school and has to park in a no-parking zone. Find the probability
that he will get a parking ticket.
Solution
Let 𝑁 = parking in a no−parking zone, 𝑇 = getting a ticket.
Then
𝑃 𝑇 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑁 0.06
𝑃(𝑇 | 𝑁) = = = 0.30 = 30%
𝑃 𝑁 0.20
Hence, Sam has a 0.30 probability or 30% chance of getting a parking ticket, given that he parked
in a no-parking zone.
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Chapter 4 4.3 The Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability
EXAMPLE 4–34 Survey on Women in the Military
A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought women in the armed forces should be permitted
to participate in combat. The results of the survey are shown.
Gender Yes No Total
Male 32 18 50
Female 8 42 50
Total 40 60 100
Find these probabilities.
a. The respondent answered yes, given that the respondent was a female.
b. The respondent was a male, given that the respondent answered no.
Solution
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Chapter 4 4.3 The Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability
Gender Yes No Total
Male 32 18 50
Female 8 42 50
Solution Total 40 60 100
Let 𝑀 = 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑤𝑎𝑠 𝑎 𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒, 𝐹 = 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑤𝑎𝑠 𝑎 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒
𝑌 = 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑦𝑒𝑠, 𝑁 = 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑛𝑜
a. The respondent answered yes, given that the respondent was a female.
𝑃 𝑌 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐹 8ൗ 4
𝑃(𝑌 | 𝐹) = = 100 = = 0.16
𝑃 𝐹 50ൗ 25
100
b. The respondent was a male, given that the respondent answered no.
𝑃 𝑀 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑁 18ൗ 3
𝑃(𝑀 | 𝑁) = = 100 = = 0.3
𝑃 𝑁 60 ൗ100 10
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