Elective Agromet advisory service and Crop modeling (2+1)
( 5th Semester)
Class 1: Weather forecasting system
Definition:
Weather forecasting is the prediction of weather for the next few days to follow. It is the
application of science and technology to predict the conditions of the atmosphere for a given
location and time. Human beings have attempted to predict the weather informally
for millennia and formally since the 19th century. Weather forecasts are made by collecting
quantitative data about the current state of the atmosphere at a given place and
using meteorology to project how the atmosphere will change.
Scope and importance:
Basically weather has many social and economic impacts in a place.
Among different factors that influence crop production, weather plays a decisive role as
aberrations in it alone explains up to 50 per cent variations in crop production
The rainfall is the most important among the required forecast, which decides the crop
production in a region and ultimately the country’s economy.
The planning for moisture conservation under weak monsoon condition and for flood
relief under strong monsoon condition is important in a region.
A reliable weather forecasting when disseminated appropriately will pave way for the
effective sustainability.
One can minimize the damage, which may be caused directly or indirectly by
unfavourable weather.
The recurring crop losses can be minimized if reliable forecast on incidence of pest and
diseases is given timely based on weather variables.
Help in holding the food grain prices in check through buffer stock operations. This
means that in good monsoon years when prices fall, the government may step in and buy
and in bad years when price tend to rise, it may unload a part of what it had purchased.
Judicious use of water can be planned in a region depending up on the forecast.
Forecasting problems:
Weather forecasting is a complex and often challenging skill. It needs processing of vast
amounts of data.
There are two main problems as follows:
First, there is data collection - what is the current state of the atmosphere. This is easy enough to
do on land, but difficult over the ocean (because people don't live there) and up in the air (also
not a place easy to put a weather instrument). Furthermore, places where the properties of the
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surface change quickly over a small distance (such as at the seacoast, or in the mountains), also
need an impractically high density of weather observations.
Second, there is the limitations of a computer, which is how all modern weather forecasts are
done. Sure, weather forecasts may become more accurate as processing power increases. They
might also get better if someone develops new mathematical laws or computer algorithms that
more accurately describe nature. (The algorithm a computer uses to solve equations is a big part
of why different weather models give different predictions). But the big limit is chaos. Weather
depends on things at small and large scales. A thermometer may measure the temperature to the
nearest tenth of a degree. A computer usually goes to 16 decimal places. But a chaotic system
needs far more precision that that, such as the position of every leaf on every tree on Earth,
which is practically impossible to know at any instant time. One way to think about chaos is if
you place two leaves in a babbling brook next to each other. At first, they will be kind of close
to each other, but downstream they may be very far apart (say, one gets caught in a whirlpool
behind a rock, the other keeps going but takes some other crazy meandering path). So, the
problem is chaos, and that is not likely to be solved soon.
Classified terminology of weather parameters used in weather forecasts and their
interpretation:
Rainfall:
No rainfall: 0 mm
Light rainfall: 10 mm
Medium rainfall: 11-30 mm
Heavy rainfall: 31-60 mm
Very Heavy rainfall: > 60 mm
Wind direction
Northerly (N): Wind blowing from 337.6 – 22.5o
North easterly (NE): Wind blowing from 22.6 -67.5o
Easterly (E): Wind blowing from 67.5-112.5o
South Easterly (SE): Wind blowing from 112.5-157.5o
Southerly (S): Wind blowing from 157.5-202.5o
South Westerly (SW): Wind blowing from 202.5-247.5o
Westerly (W): Wind blowing from 247.5-292.5o
North Westerly (NW): Wind blowing from 292.5-337.5o
Cloud condition
Clear sky: 0 Octa
Mainly clear: 1-2 Octa of sky covered
Partly cloudy: 3-4 Octa of sky covered
Generally cloudy: 5-7 Octa of sky covered
Cloudy: >7 Octa of sky covered
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Weather phenomena
Intermittent rain: In a 24 hrs time, rainfall occurring with a frequency more than that defined in
“A Few Spells” but is discontinuous and without presenting the character of a shower.
Drizzle: Liquid precipitation in the form of water drops of very small size (by convention, with
radius of water drops between about 100 and 500 µm).
Rain: Liquid precipitation in the form of water drops of radius between about 500 and 2500 µm.
Shower: Solid or liquid precipitation from a vertically developed cloud is designated a shower
and is distinguished from the precipitation, intermittent or continuous, from layer clouds.
Showers are often characterized by short duration and rapid fluctuations of intensity (by
convention, with radius of water drops more than 2500 µm).
Hail: Solid precipitation in the form of balls or pieces of ice (hailstones) with diameters ranging
from 5 to 50 mm or even more.
Thunderstorm: One or more sudden electrical discharges manifested by a flash of light
(Lightning) and a sharp rumbling sound (thunder).
Duststorm: An ensemble of particles of dust or sand energetically lifted to great heights by a
strong and turbulent wind. Surface visibility is reduced to low limits; the qualification for a
synoptic report is visibility below 1000 m.
Mist: Mist is a phenomenon of small droplets suspended in air.
Dew: Condensation of water vapour on a surface whose temperature is reduced by radiational
cooling to below the DEW-POINT of the air in contact with it.
Fog: Fog is a phenomenon of small droplets suspended in air and the visibility is one kilometer
or less.
Frost: Frost occurs when the temperature of the air in contact with the ground, or at
thermometer-screen level, is below the freezing-point of water (‘ground frost’ or ‘air frost’,
respectively). The term is also used of the icy deposits which may form on the ground and on
objects in such temperature conditions (glaze, hoar-frost).
Haze: Haze is traditionally an atmospheric phenomenon where dust, smoke and other dry
particles obscure the clarity of the sky.
Smog: Smoke and fog together reduce the visibility.
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Squally weather: Squally weather is meant to cover occasional or frequent squalls with rain or
persistent type of strong gusty winds (mean wind speed not less than 20 knot) accompanied by
rain. Such conditions are associated with low pressure systems or onset and strengthening of
monsoon.
Visibility: The greatest distance that prominent object can be seen and identified by unaided,
normal eyes.
Temperature
Description of 24 hrs temperature changes:
Maximum temperature
(a) When the normal maximum temperature of a station is 40º C or below.
Nomenclature Past 24 hours change
Little change: -1ºC to 1º C
Rise: 2º C
Appreciable rise: 3º C to 4º C
Marked rise: 5º C to 6º C
Large rise: 7º C or more
(b) When the normal maximum temperature of a station is more than 40º C.
Nomenclature Past 24 hours change
Little change: -1 C to 1 C
Rise: 2º C
Marked rise: 3º C to 4º C
Large rise: 5º C or more
Minimum temperature
(a) When the normal minimum temperature of a station is 10º C or more.
Nomenclature Past 24 hours change
Little change: 1º C to -1º C
Fall: -2º C
Appreciable fall: -3º C to -4º C
Marked fall: -5º C to -6º C
Large fall: -7º C or less
(b) When the normal minimum temperature of a station is less than 10º C.
Nomenclature Past 24 hours change
Little change: 1º C to -1º C
Fall: -2º C
Marked fall: -3º C to -4º C
Large fall: -5º C or less