DEMOGRAFÍA
GRUPO 041
LEONEL TAPIA FUANTOS
1928701
ABSTRACT
“La Situación Demográfica en México” 2014
Abstract
Theoretically, demography was born four centuries ago due to life arithmetic, death,
migration, and life in the time of plague. Hence, demography is implicit and, in most cases,
has an explanation to historical events that have impacted our population development and
even our geography.
But it was until 1882 that our government began to take interest in demography with the
declaration of the “Law of Production of Demographic Statistics” established in the General
Statistics Management.
Porfirio Diaz is the name of the man who started this phase of political stability. To reach
this goal; in 1995 he decided to work in a census project which he knew represented an
underpinning part in the understanding of Mexico. After that, a constant era of census was
followed.
Another big step for demography in Mexico was made in 1859 when Benito Juárez enacted
the “Reforma Legislations” introducing with this the Civil Register. These vital records
allowed the analysis and evolution of the dynamic demography.
Another social event that changed the dynamic demography was the Mexican Revolution,
which had meaningful effects in the population growth. Between 1910 and 1921, Mexico lost
2 874 653 of people; 49% due to mortality, 38% as a result of a meaningful decrease in
natality, and 13% on account of the ones who emigrated to USA. Besides the Spanish flu
pandemic contributed in 1918 leaving approximately 300 000 deceases. It’s interesting to
highlight that the 2.9 million of losses during the Mexican revolution turned into 26 million
people less accounted in the 2000 census.
As a result, to these historical events, in 1936 the National Congress approves the first
“Population General Legislation”, which enunciated that society needed a big growth in
terms of population to reach better and higher levels of affluence.
These objectives were accomplished; in the 20th century the population duplicated three
times also as of 1940 an accelerated decrease in mortality levels was noted, from 1940 to
1950 the life expectancy at birth went from 41 to 49 years. This development was credited
to public work investment such as potable water, good drainage, sewer and the creation of
healthcare and social security centers. Medical assistance also played an important role,
the discovery of penicillin and the development of antibiotics meant a huge contribution in
the decrease of mortality.
In the 1960s the demographic rate reached the value of 3.4% per year which means that
our population duplicated every 20 years. This value is obtained dividing 7012 by the
population growth rate.
1977 was another milestone in the demographic story of Mexico. Based on the studies made
by Víctor Urquidi and Gustavo Cabrera, an aim was set for the year 2000; 1% yearly rate.
The first goal was a 3.2% for the 1977. Despite that the goal wasn’t achieved, it was
important enough that a longstanding policy that went beyond six-year presidential cycle
was proposed. It has been a government public policy since then. Goals for every six years
were determined from 1977 to 2000. Also, the requirements in terms of coverage of people
in the family planning programs were estimated to reach the goal.
The 1976 fertility survey with national and regional representativeness endorsed that Mexico
had a demographic growth rate of 3.2 %. Furthermore, there’s another population group that
stands out because is about to grow exponentially this 21st century. There is no way back
because this population group had already been born. This is the increase of the population
of 65 years and older. This is going to affect the pension system, retirements, and social
security and particularly it is going to affect women more than men as women life expectancy
is larger. Other fundamental topics are teenage fertility, maternal mortality, diabetes,
international migration, population distribution, ethnic demographic, amongst other things.
In 1977 Gustavo Cabrera planned the demography future in the long run, during his
administration the “Program for women” and the three R policy for migration was
established: retention, reorientation, and repositioning which had as focal point populating
the coasts.
CONAPO (Consejo Nacional de Población) was created in 1974 by the president at the time;
Luis Echeverria. This institution was entrusted to develop projections especially because
one of its terms of reference is the definition of the desired demographic Mexico, therefore
it must establish the future of our demographic situation.
40 years later the new law proposal will be more comprehensive and ambitious. The legal
measures in process aim to regulate, program, promote and evaluate the population politics
in respect of demographic events that could affect its volume, structure, dynamic, and
geographic distribution on national territory. It also incorporates the legal registration and
population identity, and includes the environmental concerns as a part of well-being and
living standards. Fights against marginalization, inequality, and poverty in the context of
equity and justice in benefit of progress. Teenage fertility, maternal mortality, international
migration, and active ageing had been settled as priority areas. Its important to clarify that
population projections and long-sighted event analysis are CONAPO’s responsibility. This
law may also emphasize in social security, particularly social security for women. Since we
will find many lonely women in advanced ages as a result of the larger life expectancy for
women. A complicated scenario will be shown for this population group at the final ages of
their lives: lonely women, very poor, with expensive diseases and without social security.
The ageing issue will become a national security topic due to high costs for retirement
payments.
Its important to point out that population policy comply to development. From 1974 to 2014
life expectancy at birth went from 60 to 75 years old, and infant mortality was reduced to
almost 70 per thousand to the sixth part.
What will be the challenges and crucial moments in the future? In our country the ageing
process is having a very accelerated and sudden appearance, therefore we must be ready
for it. Diabetes, heart diseases, cardiovascular diseases and malignant tumors represented
a 49.9% of total deaths in 2012, based on information provided by the INEGI, which means
poor nutrition and unhealthy diets are the most fearsome murderers. According to the United
Nations the highest population volume point will be in 2057 with 157 million people,
henceforth the population will start decreasing.
Finally, it’s worthwhile to point out that the CONAPO it’s a key institution in the resolution of
demographic future, its research and studies alert us about the future events. It is a
strategical governmental authority that has been commissioned to handle the issues related
to the deepest topics of our existence: death, life, and mobility. It is an answer to What?
Why? For what? And how? Of a population policy.